The 2022 Men's NCAA Tournament Reimagined Without The P5 Schools

[TheHall87]

There's been a lot of chatter here, understandably, about the latest round of realignment going through college football and the effects that it might ultimately have on college basketball, most specifically the NCAA Tournament. Last year 29 P5 teams made the NCAA Tournament. I decided to put together a field of 68 stripping those schools out.

The seeds are basically taken straight from the NET rankings using the S-curve through the entire field. I made a few changes based on keeping conference opponents apart prior to the Sweet 16 but other than that stayed true to the rankings. Tulane and DePaul qualified based on NET ranking but were removed because of a sub. 500 overall record.

Here's the field. An asterisk means an automatic bid (there are 27). In a hypothetical Final Four West would play South and Midwest would play East.

WEST:
Gonzaga (1) * - Wright State */Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (16) *
South Dakota State (8) * - Towson (9)
Seton Hall (4) - Northern Iowa (13)
UAB (5) - * - UNLV (12)
VCU (6) - Drake (11)
Murray State (3) * - Colgate (14) *
BYU (7) - Richmond (10) *
Loyola Chicago (2) * - Delaware (15) *

MIDWEST:
Houston (1) * - Texas Southern */Bryant (16) *
Santa Clara (8) - Missouri State (9)
Davidson (4) - St. Peter's (13) *
Marquette (5) - Cincinnati (12)
Vermont (6) * - Toledo (11)
San Diego State (3) - Longwood (14) *
Wyoming (7) - Furman (10)
San Francisco (2) - Jacksonville State (15) *

EAST:
Villanova (1) * - Norfolk State (16) *
St. Louis (8) - Fresno State (9)
Xavier (4) - UCF/Princeton (13)
Creighton (5) - Middle Tennessee (12)
North Texas (6) - Wichita State (11)
Memphis (3) - Montana State (14) *
Chattanooga (7) * - Belmont (10)
Providence (2) - Yale (15) *

SOUTH:
UConn (1) - Georgia State (16) *
Utah State (8) - St. Bonaventure (9)
Colorado State (4) - Louisiana Tech/Bradley (13)
Dayton (5) - Grand Canyon (12)
SMU (6) - Iona (11)
Boise State (3) * - Akron (14) *
St. John's (7) - New Mexico State (10) *
St. Mary's (2) - Cal State Fullerton (15) *

Top Four Seeds: Gonzaga (1), Houston (2), Villanova (3), UConn (4)
Last Four Byes: Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, UNLV, Northern Iowa
Last Four In: UCF, Louisiana Tech, Bradley, Princeton
First Four Out: Wofford, Temple, Hofstra, Morehead State
Next Four Out: Utah Valley State, Liberty, Ohio, Buffalo

Bids By Conference:
8: Big East
7: Mountain West
6: American, Atlantic-10
5: Missouri Valley, West Coast
4: Conference USA
2: Colonial, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid American, Ohio Valley, Southern, Western Athletic
1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC

 

[radecicco]

This is terrible. Hope Val is working the phones. She had a great relationship with Delaney when he was commish of the B1G but he’s gone. The BE needs to be seen as a legit part of the basketball landscape in the eyes of the big football conferences.

 

[SHUisNJsTeam]

Woof! We can’t be punished for not having football. The Big East better be making plans and damn good plans!

 

[statenman]

Nothing is happening to the NCAA tournament. It is loved by the nation and fans would never allow anything to happen to it. Not even the schools (although they have been trying for years) to drop mid majors out of it, it has never happened and never will IMO.

 

[SHUisNJsTeam]

Nothing is happening to the NCAA tournament. It is loved by the nation and fans would never allow anything to happen to it. Not even the schools (although they have been trying for years) to drop mid majors out of it, it has never happened and never will IMO.

I hope you’re right!

 

[ivyhillparkk1963]

Nothing is happening to the NCAA tournament. It is loved by the nation and fans would never allow anything to happen to it. Not even the schools (although they have been trying for years) to drop mid majors out of it, it has never happened and never will IMO.

I agree. please don't let greed destroy such a great 3 weeks of excitement. For only in a the ncaa tournament as it is, could there ever be a st peters..

 

[statenman]

The only REAL time this almost happened was when the top teams argued that mid major teams can't compete and it takes away from the tournament. Then Princeton came within a made shot of beating Georgetown ....the nation reacted in a way that made everyone decide to keep them in it. And since that time the Cinderella story grows and seems to comes true each year for at least 1 team.
Furthermore...phrases like "March Madness" "Elite eight " Final Four" "The Big Dance " are all trademarked NCAA phrases. SO what would they even call it??
This will not happen in my lifetime ,unless the NCAA goes under, but even then America wouldn't stand for a BB tournament just with football teams.

 

[seton1996]

I don’t expect tourney to go away, but if these football schools gain even more power over tourney, do they somehow get bigger share of revenue or do they try to limit “non power” schools, so either make lower schools play more play ins against each other or somehow try to limit number of bids from conference like A10, BE, etc.

 

[ivyhillparkk1963]

I don’t expect tourney to go away, but if these football schools gain even more power over tourney, do they somehow get bigger share of revenue or do they try to limit “non power” schools, so either make lower schools play more play ins against each other or somehow try to limit number of bids from conference like A10, BE, etc.

I dont understand why they would want to limit non power schools. How else will half of them ever get a first round win?

 

[TheHall87]

There's been, at least, some discussion here that the P5 schools might split from the NCAA altogether -- not just for football. If that happens then they wouldn't be playing in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

I performed this little exercise to illustrate how important those schools are to the NCAA and its basketball tournament. You're talking about a field without Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA and so many more. Plus, I wanted to try to spur some discussion.

As much as we talk about how important the little guy is to the mystique of the tournament, it's also true that the tournament needs those brand name schools to participate. Without them, it's essentially the NIT which many here deride.

Think of it as a movie. It's generally only as good as its story. Typically most stories are about good and bad. Every hero needs a villain.

Last year's St. Peter's story is a lot more compelling given their four NCAA tournament opponents were Kentucky, Murray State, Purdue and North Carolina. Two of the biggest brands in college basketball and a third that if it isn't elite, is in that next tier.

That run looks very different if SPU beats Davidson, Marquette, Houston and then loses to San Diego State.

 

[SHUSA]

Nothing is happening to the NCAA tournament. It is loved by the nation and fans would never allow anything to happen to it. Not even the schools (although they have been trying for years) to drop mid majors out of it, it has never happened and never will IMO.

fans have a say in the matter?

 

[sami]

There's been, at least, some discussion here that the P5 schools might split from the NCAA altogether -- not just for football. If that happens then they wouldn't be playing in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

I performed this little exercise to illustrate how important those schools are to the NCAA and its basketball tournament. You're talking about a field without Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA and so many more. Plus, I wanted to try to spur some discussion.

As much as we talk about how important the little guy is to the mystique of the tournament, it's also true that the tournament needs those brand name schools to participate. Without them, it's essentially the NIT which many here deride.

Think of it as a movie. It's generally only as good as its story. Typically most stories are about good and bad. Every hero needs a villain.

Last year's St. Peter's story is a lot more compelling given their four NCAA tournament opponents were Kentucky, Murray State, Purdue and North Carolina. Two of the biggest brands in college basketball and a third that if it isn't elite, is in that next tier.

That run looks very different if SPU beats Davidson, Marquette, Houston and then loses to San Diego State.

Two points, if this was to happen, no need for a field of 68. Probably 64 even for that matter, but it would likely be held to that. Why have a play in?

 

[STLPirate12]

Wouldn't that just be the Big East Tournament?

 

[HALL85]

ESPN and FOX will be making the call. It makes financial sense to have a mega-FB conference. More premium ($) games during the season and a neat three weekend playoff.

March Madness is a goldmine and having three weekends with 64+ teams is also all about the money. The networks can get the benefit of the matchups of mega conferences and also the other regional conferences (ACC, BE, PAC12, etc.) during the season.

 

[TheHall87]

Two points, if this was to happen, no need for a field of 68. Probably 64 even for that matter, but it would likely be held to that. Why have a play in?

I agree with that.

For this purpose, I wanted to replicate the tournament as is and make more of an apples to apples comparison.

Of course, that meant going down to NET ranking 107 to get the last at-large team.

Based on this, I think the tournament might max out at 48 teams. 12 teams a region, the top four get a bye to the second round. If the broadcast partner(s) wanted they could retain the current footprint of Thursday-Sunday for the first two weekends followed by a Final Four on Saturday/Monday.

All of the above presumes a P5 -- or an all-FBS football school -- tournament doesn't align on the same dates.

 

[The Crows Nest]

ESPN and FOX will be making the call. It makes financial sense to have a mega-FB conference. More premium ($) games during the season and a neat three weekend playoff.

March Madness is a goldmine and having three weekends with 64+ teams is also all about the money. The networks can get the benefit of the matchups of mega conferences and also the other regional conferences (ACC, BE, PAC12, etc.) during the season.

In fact, to your point, "conferences" in that scenario are meaningless....truly and functionally. The BIG....what? the SEC? Really? and the rest...whatever becomes of the PAC, the Big 12, the ACC...heck the Big East....conference affiliations will mean nothing....will be more like NFL conferences and divisions....only there may be the "major leagues" and the "minor leagues".....call it what it is. Who will care about the "ACC" (or any other) anymore? history? gone.

 

[HALL85]

In fact, to your point, "conferences" in that scenario are meaningless....truly and functionally. The BIG....what? the SEC? Really? and the rest...whatever becomes of the PAC, the Big 12, the ACC...heck the Big East....conference affiliations will mean nothing....will be more like NFL conferences and divisions....only there may be the "major leagues" and the "minor leagues".....call it what it is. Who will care about the "ACC" (or any other) anymore? history? gone.

That’s exactly where we’re heading. The conference names have some brand value right now but that will be short-lived.