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Mike Walsh Bracketology

walshtrips

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Oct 22, 2006
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Mike Walsh Bracketology:

Seton Hall at 42 (11 seed) Last Four In
SJU at 43 (11 seed) Last Four In

Bubble: (2 spots left)
- Villanova
- Pitt
- Utah
- Princeton

Potential Spoilers:
- NC State

Conference Bids:
Big 12 - 8
SEC - 7
Big Ten - 6
Mountain West - 5
Big East - 5
ACC - 4
PAC 12 - 4

Notes:
- The NCAA claims to weigh the entire season equally. Despite our loss to SJU in the BET, we swept them in season, we finished 2 games ahead of them in conference, we have 5 Q1 wins to their 4 Q1 wins. We should finish ahead of them, but we survive even if we're behind them.
- I have Michigan State at 40 (2 spots ahead of us). They finished 10-10 in conference, they are 3-9 in Q1 and 9-14 in Q2. There is a chance that we get a better placement as we finished 3 games above .500 and have 2 additional Q1 wins.

- I have Texas A&M at 36 (6 spots ahead of us). They finished 9-9 in conference. They have 13 Q1 and Q2 wins, however they have 5 Q3 losses. We each played 12 Q3 and Q4 games and we finished at 11-1 while they finished at 7-5.

- Could the NET be putting too much value on the Mountain West which has 4 teams at NET 155 or worse (Wyoming 155, Fresno 232, San Jose 242 and Air Force 269). We have DePaul 320 and Georgetown 204, our 9 remaining teams are 67 NET or higher. The Big East leaders got 4 automatic conference wins, while the Mountain West leaders got 8 automatic wins.

Conclusion:
No Big East team that finished 5 games above .500 ever missed the Dance. We are one of 30 teams with 5 Quad 1 wins or more. I think there's a chance that the Mountain West gets just 4 bids. There's a chance that we get picked ahead of Michigan State and/or Texas A&M. Despite Princeton's record of 24-3, they have ZERO Q1 wins, 2-3 in Q2, and the loss to Brown today (Q3) puts them on the bubble.

We will land between 39 and 43 on selection Sunday. A spot at 41, or better, and we don't have to play on Tuesday. GO PIRATES!!!
 
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