Tweet perspective on Coronavirius and health care
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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Never seen such hysteria, fear and panic. This virus is mild in 80% of the cases (more like the common cold). Sure, that's no fun to go through but it's really not that bad in the grand scheme.
80,000 cases in a country of 1.4 billion people and the whole world panics. Yes, we should try to prevent its spread. But the nonsense in the media is doing nobody any good.
80,000 cases in a country of 1.4 billion people and the whole world panics. Yes, we should try to prevent its spread. But the nonsense in the media is doing nobody any good.
09, there are two ways to look at this IMO, and I’m not sure where the truth is. On the one hand, the numbers globally don’t come anywhere near a pandemic and still are dwarfed by annual flu numbers. Strikes me as overreacting. MSM adding to it unnecessarily. What doesn’t make sense to me is the reaction and steps being taken by China and other governments. Way over the top for what we have seen so far. Why?
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People should be afraid because we (the global we) haven’t been able to contain it. It’s more difficult because to contain because there may be no symptoms at all for some people.
While the fatality rate is much lower than something like SARS, it has already killed more than 2x the number of people that died from SARS.
The fatality rate is around 10-20x that of the flu. There is a Harvard epidemiology professor saying it’s likely that 40%-70% of the world will ultimately be infected with the virus.
I honestly don’t understand the science of it so maybe I am misunderstanding something, but a 40% infected population of the world with a virus that kills people at even 1% (currently looks above 2%) seems fairly horrifying to me.
While the fatality rate is much lower than something like SARS, it has already killed more than 2x the number of people that died from SARS.
The fatality rate is around 10-20x that of the flu. There is a Harvard epidemiology professor saying it’s likely that 40%-70% of the world will ultimately be infected with the virus.
I honestly don’t understand the science of it so maybe I am misunderstanding something, but a 40% infected population of the world with a virus that kills people at even 1% (currently looks above 2%) seems fairly horrifying to me.
Because it's 2020 and everything is reactionary and over the top. LOL.
What's the percentage of people who've ever had the flu? Probably greater than 40-70% (that's quite a range to just pull out of the air). That guy is trying to scare people unnecessarily.
My bet is this all blows over in 3-4 months like SARS and the swine flu.
2017-2018 flu season - About 13% of the US population got the flu. About 0.1% of those people died. And we have vaccines which help prevent a large annual pandemic.
If the same 13% percentage got coronavirus. - 900,000 people will die.
If 40% of US citizens get infected - We are potentially talking about millions of deaths here.
MSM yes, but normally government agencies are not. Do we not trust data coming out of China? US is doing a great job of containing it, but that’s a tribute to our surveillance systems and quality of healthcare.
In addition to lack of trust with China, you have the economic influence of China (how much stuff they produce...that is now not being produced), along with tourism and travel of people to and from China. My gut tells me this blows over by summer with a bit of economic hangover. Just remember in the last several years we’ve had SARS, MERS, Ebola, Babesia and Zika. Each had that initial window of concern were controlled globally very quickly. (Although Ebola is still an issue in Africa....why no attention to that??).
You’re conflating global stats with US. Even if we didn’t have flu vaccines, the number of cases and fatalities would be minimal because we are very good at early detection and treatment of flu. Vaccines are also hit or miss depending on strains.
Not deflecting. I don't know that number.
Not really trying to argue with you.
I'm just not criticizing that the media might be overreacting here.They may be, I really don't know. I would just prefer they overreact which makes people take better care not to contract or spread the virus than have them report like this will all pass on its own and people don't take any additional precautions.
That's fair. Makes sense that I shouldn't apply a global fatality rate to potential cases in the US.
Though it does appear that so far the global fatality rate of the virus far exceeds that of the flu, right? And if not contained, could lead to millions of lives lost globally?
Catch -22 there.
How do you convince a population that it is serious enough to take additional precautions not to spread the virus, but also that they shouldn't take it that seriously and it will probably go away on its own in a few months?
Where are fatally rates higher? Is there data supporting that by country? IMO this is more about China and the lack of transparency in providing information and their size and volume of travel to and from. If this started in most any other country, it would have been contained and minimized already.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0227-sitrep-38-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=9f98940c_2
Italy for example - 400 confirmed cases. 12 deaths.
While that sample size is not huge and I don't know the details of if there were other issues for those 12 people, that rate is significantly higher than the mortality rate of the flu.
Same with Iran. 121 confirmed cases - 21 deaths.
btw 85, you were the first one here raising concerns about the virus a month ago.
On the date you posted "The information from the CDC and other governing bodies I am seeing on the Corona virus is concerning"
There were under 5,000 confirmed cases. A month later it is over 80,000
There were 106 deaths from the virus, A month later there are 2,700
There were 56 cases outside of China. A month later there are over 3,600
You seem to have gone from alarmist to the opposite in 30 days while all of that is happening?
On the date you posted "The information from the CDC and other governing bodies I am seeing on the Corona virus is concerning"
There were under 5,000 confirmed cases. A month later it is over 80,000
There were 106 deaths from the virus, A month later there are 2,700
There were 56 cases outside of China. A month later there are over 3,600
You seem to have gone from alarmist to the opposite in 30 days while all of that is happening?
Merge, no, not at all. It was/is Concerning because of the lack of confidence of information coming from China. My point was that we needed to be vigilant but not over-react. Shutting down air travel was an appropriate measure. My position has been very consistent.
And yes, those percentages out of Iran and Italy are not statistically significant at this point. Given that over 80% of symptoms are mild, my sense is that a significant number have been unreported and self-treated.
And yes, those percentages out of Iran and Italy are not statistically significant at this point. Given that over 80% of symptoms are mild, my sense is that a significant number have been unreported and self-treated.
Read somewhere recently that someone from the WHO was disputing that idea since we are testing beyond those who are symptomatic.
In my opinion, alarmism is the right call here, even if we overstate the true risk.
I would prefer people be scared and be vigilant to prevent the spread of the virus than downplaying it and increasing the risk of additional exposure.
As an aside, about a month ago, I was speaking with my dry cleaner, who is an immigrant from South Korean, and has a lot of family living there, about the virus. He said he was very concerned given China’s history. He has also maintained over the years that they never take Kim Jung Un’s threats seriously and his family was paying much more attention to the virus.
What is strange is no one is talking about the Chinese labs in Wuhan rumored biowarfare labs for many years. Articles go back many years about wuhan. Is it possible that a worker spread this by mistake or worse? Have a friend who works in risk management at a well known Wall Street firm and they believe this was no mistake. Thought it was interesting anyway.
I've thought about this, but it is generally looked at as a conspiracy theory from what I've seen. I do think there should be more investigation, but that's difficult when dealing with the Chinese commies.
You are extrapolating off of a very small sample size, and that is your error. I don't know if the epidemiologist's estimates are on the mark or not, but I would wager that a significant number infected will have subclinical disease, including no symptoms at all.
Agree, don't really have a good way to extrapolate. Just saying by all accounts so far, it appears that this virus could potentially kill a lot of people. Not looking to argue that it is only bad if it kills a million vs 30,000. Just that it is something we should be afraid of and be vigilant in our efforts to contain it.
The people with no symptoms at all are great and all but the potential to spread it without knowing scares me. My wife has an auto-immune disease and takes immunosuppressants so would be considered as high risk of the virus potentially killing her.
Someone in our building had indirect exposure with one of those diagnosed in NY.
They are sanitizing 3 floors because of that. I'm glad they are taking it seriously.
Well, it's officially a pandemic now. As an aside, about a month ago, I was speaking with my dry cleaner, who is an immigrant from South Korea, and has a lot of family living there. I told him I was dropping off 10 shirts and it would be great if he could clear the stain on the blue pin stripe (damn pasta sauce). He said no problem and everything would be ready by Wednesday.
this post needs to be appreciated. I never believe the majority of those anecdotes.
Death rate is skewed right now because of so many people likely having it, according to some
That is likely true to an extent. We don't know the real numbers yet since it is so early.
South Korea is doing a good job getting people tested and their mortality rate seems significantly lower so far.
I hope that trend continues. We need to test as many people as possible as fast as possible to try and contain it.
So my daughter who lives in Williamsburg was complaining about the availability of COVID-19 testing there. So I sent her this....Nice to see health systems from one of those "backwards" areas is figuring it out...
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https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/m...0200313-2aettu355vaq5jacjdvx6cfu3a-story.html
.https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/m...0200313-2aettu355vaq5jacjdvx6cfu3a-story.html
So my daughter who lives in Williamsburg was complaining about the availability of COVID-19 testing there. So I sent her this....Nice to see health systems from one of those "backwards" areas is figuring it out...
https://www.mcall.com/coronavirus/m...0200313-2aettu355vaq5jacjdvx6cfu3a-story.html
Progress is great but still a long way to go and really need to be testing people beyond those who are sick. If you get sick at all, you have potentially been spreading it for weeks. To contain this, we need millions of tests as soon as possible so those who are asymptomatic can self quarantine.
Not sure how you make that happen. Mandatory? Voluntary?
LVHN does some very innovative stuff and very focused on population health. They actually have an analytics group (Populytics), that identifies chronic patients and they treat them proactively. The also send doctors into homeless encampments. Not surprised they are on the forefront on testing.
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I’m not opposed to doing more widespread testing but you need appropriate objectives and protocols or you could be wasting valuable time and resources on people and in areas that are low risk and delaying testing where it’s vitally needed.
What is involved in testing? Is it bloodwork or something less invasive?
If my company (theoretically) brought in a lab technician to test my employees, could I force them to take the test? If an employee refused, could I force them to stay home?
If my company (theoretically) brought in a lab technician to test my employees, could I force them to take the test? If an employee refused, could I force them to stay home?
