Underdogs at home
- Thread starter HallX2
- Start date
2-0 as underdogs at home. Let's make it 3-0.
The metrics and the desire to get money on both sides at work.
The more they keep us dogs and unranked the better
Keep winning and getting stronger. “What are they gonna say now”
home dogs definitely provides us some bulletin board material
Ken Pom’s predictive analysis is used to help with targeting the spread.
But setting a number that keeps the betting as even on each side is ABSOLUTELY how Vegas works.
They could care less about the proper respect given to Seton Hall. They want to get paid with the transactional fee or vig which is all profit if they can keep the money even on each side.
That is why the spread moves sometimes throughout the week. Because money is coming in heavier on one particular team. They are trying to persuade you to bet the other way and even it out.
but they keep it even by updating the spread. its going to be an even spread because its legitimately what their analysts determine will happen. theyre right 99% of the time. we are saying the same thing. they dont base their opening line on public perception. (hence eagles -3 tonight). if vegas was basing on public perception they would have given eagles +3
I don’t agree with that.
The average bettor is not as educated on the details that we discuss here.
Eagles were 11-6 (yes struggling as of late) which is better than the Bucs 9-8. They are still only one year removed from making it to the Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts is a more prolific name than Baker Mayfield, etc etc. The optics for the common fans says bet the Eagles.
If the line started the other way the money would have poured in for the Eagles at +3.
The fact that the line stayed the way it did all week, tells you the betting public still likes the Eagles for whatever misguided reasons they have.
makes sense. and i bet this game ends close to 3 points
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