What da ya think?

[Halldan1]

PPG

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 15.5

Rhoden 12.0

Molson 7.5

Cale 7.0

Samuel 6.5

Reynolds 4.0

Obiagu 3.0

Stevens 2,0

Long 1.5

Ngandu 1,0

Total 76.0

 

[jdavispirates]

I like it. I expect 3 in double figures w/ Cale a little higher.

FYI - I have never seen Molson play except highlights, but a gut feeling says Cale has a better year than him.

 

[Halldan1]

It's so hard to do a team PPG projection. Invariably your first draft is ridiculously high so you have to start to pare it down.

My first projection came out to 88 PPG and you know that's just plain silly. So I had to make some cuts. Last season we averaged just short of 75 PPG so I think that's the ballpark we'll be in again this year.

 

[wpc75]

If Ike is only averaging 3 points per game I would think we are in for a long season.

 

[halltheway]

Samuel may get a few more points as well as Cale...just being picky

 

[Halldan1]

If Ike is only averaging 3 points per game I would think we are in for a long season.

Gonna be easy to point out supposed discrepancies but without making a total list it's hard to debate the point being made.

 

[hallgrad80]

If Ike doesn’t give us more offensively then 3 ppg. then teams are going to focus on Mamu and that is going to impact his offense as well. I thought that last year’s offensive growth by Gill was a significant factor in what we saw Mamu give us offensively last year.

 

[SHU AL 84]

I like the fact that we have 6 guys that on any night could give you 12-18 and 3 or 4 guys that could hit for 20 points. Defense and balance will be are

 

[JoePeppitone2012]

Oh man if those are the numbers for Cale, Ike, Samuel, Reynolds the offense will need some retooling.....

 

[Halldan1]

Again Joe, how many points do you think we're going to score?

If you bump up Cale, Obiagu, Samuel and Reynolds where do you deduct the points from the others?

 

[shufranchise]

Given the experience and depth of this team once again, I don’t see a big jump coming for Samuel this year. I see Molson as the key to unlocking our potential, and I think it will be a very balanced output. Something like

Aiken 17.0

Mamu 14.5

Molson 12.0

Rhoden 10.5

Cale 6.5

Reynolds 5.5

Samuel 5.0

Obiagu 4.5

 

[lloyde dobler]

Given the experience and depth of this team once again, I don’t see a big jump coming for Samuel this year. I see Molson as the key to unlocking our potential, and I think it will be a very balanced output. Something like

Aiken 17.0

Mamu 14.5

Molson 12.0

Rhoden 10.5

Cale 6.5

Reynolds 5.5

Samuel 5.0

Obiagu 4.5

Too many points

 

[Halldan1]

It's 75.5 PPG which IMO is about right. But that is only 8 players. No one else is going to score?

 

[shufranchise]

It's 75.5 PPG which IMO is about right. But that is only 8 players. No one else is going to score?

The top 4 are the real prediction, so skim a couple points off the bottom 4 to include Long Stevens and Ngandu. As is always the case with certain guys, I think Rhoden, Cale, and Reynolds will be FAR more important than their numbers will show.

 

[shu09]

PPG

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 15.5

Rhoden 12.0

Molson 7.5

Cale 7.0

Samuel 6.5

Reynolds 4.0

Obiagu 3.0

Stevens 2,0

Long 1.5

Ngandu 1,0

Total 76.0

Aiken 15
Sandro 13
Rhoden 12
Molson 11
Cale 8
Samuel 5
Reynolds 4
Obiagu 3
Stevens 1
Long 1
Ngandu 0.5

73.5

 

[hoops41]

Remember Mamu remains in the draft

 

[BucBloc]

Molson is a scorer. Scorers score
Mamu 15
Molson 14
Aiken 13
Cale 8
Rhoden 8
Samuel 6
Reynolds 4
Obiagu 4
freshmen 4 combined
76 PPG total

 

[hallstorm]

If we are getting 75 points a night and KW is bullish on our defense this year, we’ll be in good shape.

I think most of you guys are in the right ballpark and the only automatic to me is Aiken because he can get whatever shot he wants. So I think we’ll have our second and third scorers range among 5 or 6 players (Molson, Mamu, Rhoden, Samuels and even Cale on some nights).

We could have 4 players with 10/11 points a game due to inconsistencies.

 

[razor_ogrady]

PPG

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 15.5

Rhoden 12.0

Molson 7.5

Cale 7.0

Samuel 6.5

Reynolds 4.0

Obiagu 3.0

Stevens 2,0

Long 1.5

Ngandu 1,0

Total 76.0

I don't like it at all.

 

[TheGucc]

PPG

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 15.5

Rhoden 12.0

Molson 7.5

Cale 7.0

Samuel 6.5

Reynolds 4.0

Obiagu 3.0

Stevens 2,0

Long 1.5

Ngandu 1,0

Total 76.0

With Rhoden, Mamu, and Ike around I don’t immediately see Samuel getting a ton of minutes. Honestly the biggest shock is that you have shavar pinned to not improve at all in PPG, despite him appearing to be first guard off the bench behind a starting 1 and 2 that will likely play less combined minutes than our starting 1 and 2 did last year

 

[TheGucc]

Personally, I’m thinking

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 14.0

Rhoden 10.5

Molson 9.5

Cale 8.0

Reynolds 6

Samuel 5.0

Obiagu 4.0

Stevens 1.5

Long 1.0

Ngandu 0.5

should be about 76 total PPG like most others have been saying

 

[TheGucc]

Also as a side note, we should really set some kind of reminder to come back and check this out a year from now!

 

[razor_ogrady]

Personally, I’m thinking

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 14.0

Rhoden 10.5

Molson 9.5

Cale 8.0

Reynolds 6

Samuel 5.0

Obiagu 4.0

Stevens 1.5

Long 1.0

Ngandu 0.5

should be about 76 total PPG like most others have been saying

I like this much better.

 

[Hallsome]

Personally, I’m thinking

Aiken 16.0

Mamu 14.0

Rhoden 10.5

Molson 9.5

Cale 8.0

Reynolds 6

Samuel 5.0

Obiagu 4.0

Stevens 1.5

Long 1.0

Ngandu 0.5

should be about 76 total PPG like most others have been saying

I’m with you on this but can see JR or Molson getting another 2 pts. Samuel and Ike have an outside chance at jumping up a couple points too. Thanks

 

[TheGucc]

I’m with you on this but can see JR or Molson getting another 2 pts. Samuel and Ike have an outside chance at jumping up a couple points too. Thanks

I totally agree. I wish I could say I expect the team to average 82 or something because I really think Rhoden, Molsen, and Ike have the ability to break out in certain games, but I just don’t think it’ll happen at the same time often enough that it lifts their averages. Maybe one game you play against a pipsqueak Center and Ike throws down 3 lobs and hits a free throw, maybe one game molson gets hot from 3 and rains a couple down to finish with 15 points that game, maybe Rhoden is feeling particularly springy and gets some extra transition buckets and goes for 14 points in a game.

(edit: below this mark is something I apparently pulled from thin air because it doesn’t check out at all. I swear I heard something to this extent on a CBB podcast, but I must be terribly misremembering the details of it. I’m leaving it here for posterity lol)

I just don’t see it happening consistently since on average, very few teams a year have 3+ 10ppg+ players, although those that do tend to be really good.

 

[TheHall87]

I totally agree. I wish I could say I expect the team to average 82 or something because I really think Rhoden, Molsen, and Ike have the ability to break out in certain games, but I just don’t think it’ll happen at the same time often enough that it lifts their averages. Maybe one game you play against a pipsqueak Center and Ike throws down 3 lobs and hits a free throw, maybe one game molson gets hot from 3 and rains a couple down to finish with 15 points that game, maybe Rhoden is feeling particularly springy and gets some extra transition buckets and goes for 14 points in a game. I just don’t see it happening consistently since on average, very few teams a year have 3+ 10ppg+ players, although those that do tend to be really good.

Did some quick research. Going back to 2002-03, we've had three or more players average 10 or more ppg all but two years.

The two exceptions were 2014-15 and in 2018-19. In each of those two years, we had two players above 10 points with two players average at least nine points and one more at either 8.8 or 8.9. By contrast we had five seasons during that span where four players averaged at least 10 points a game including one (2003-04) when five players hit that mark.

That's an 18-year period that covers seven NCAA bids, three NIT appearances and some really bad basketball.

 

[TheGucc]

Did some quick research. Going back to 2002-03, we've had three or more players average 10 or more ppg all but two years.

The two exceptions were 2014-15 and in 2018-19. In each of those two years, we had two players above 10 points with two players average at least nine points and one more at either 8.8 or 8.9. By contrast we had five seasons during that span where four players averaged at least 10 points a game including one (2003-04) when five players hit that mark.

That's an 18-year period that covers seven NCAA bids, three NIT appearances and some really bad basketball.

I’m gonna be honest, the 3-player 10-PPG metric isn’t one of my own talking points, I’m pretty sure I grabbed it from CBS eye on college basketball or another CBB podcast, so I’m more than willing to concede I don’t firsthand know to what extent it checks out. Whatever their details were, they had some kind of statistic of good tournament teams almost always having solid spread out scoring. It might have been that teams that DONT hit that three man mark struggle extraordinarily to get wins, even if they have a huge scorer taking most of the load, or it might have been a mark like 12ppg

 

[Hallsome]

I totally agree. I wish I could say I expect the team to average 82 or something because I really think Rhoden, Molsen, and Ike have the ability to break out in certain games, but I just don’t think it’ll happen at the same time often enough that it lifts their averages. Maybe one game you play against a pipsqueak Center and Ike throws down 3 lobs and hits a free throw, maybe one game molson gets hot from 3 and rains a couple down to finish with 15 points that game, maybe Rhoden is feeling particularly springy and gets some extra transition buckets and goes for 14 points in a game.

(edit: below this mark is something I apparently pulled from thin air because it doesn’t check out at all. I swear I heard something to this extent on a CBB podcast, but I must be terribly misremembering the details of it. I’m leaving it here for posterity lol)

I just don’t see it happening consistently since on average, very few teams a year have 3+ 10ppg+ players, although those that do tend to be really good.

Good points

If I have to pick I’m saying JR goes up a couple and Cale 1

Interesting stat

Thanks

 

[SHUSA]

Mamu 16

Aiken 15

Molson 12

Rhoden 9.5

Cale 6.5

Samuel 5

Reynolds 4.5

Obiagu 4

Freshman 1.5

Total 74

 

[TheHall87]

I’m gonna be honest, the 3-player 10-PPG metric isn’t one of my own talking points, I’m pretty sure I grabbed it from CBS eye on college basketball or another CBB podcast, so I’m more than willing to concede I don’t firsthand know to what extent it checks out. Whatever their details were, they had some kind of statistic of good tournament teams almost always having solid spread out scoring. It might have been that teams that DONT hit that three man mark struggle extraordinarily to get wins, even if they have a huge scorer taking most of the load, or it might have been a mark like 12ppg

This is opinion and not based on any real research but figure three 10+ ppg scorers works out to between 45 and 50 points a game. For most teams there are roughly 20 to 25 more points to go around. As an example, we've averaged at least 73 ppg as a team every year since 2014-15 when we were at 68.5.

After those first three guys those points are going to be spread through eight or 10 other players but mostly between three or four other guys.

One other thing and the great outlier when talking ppg, Taurean Thompson averaged four points per game last year.

 

[Hall91]

Let’s hope we have a season to see if this comes to fruition. Here’s my guess on the ranges:

Aiken; 14 to 17 PPG; can we get a full season from him relatively injury free?
Mamu: 13 to 16 PPG; Could be higher, but I’m sure Bryce will take more than dish more
Rhoden: 12 to 14 PPG; fingers crossed he can become a consistent 3pt shooting threat
Cale: 10 to 13 PPG; more important is that we need Cale to be the Defender/Rebounder at the 2/3 spot for us.

Molson: 8 to 10 PPG (maybe a wildcard for us)
Reynolds: 6 to 8PPG
Samuel: 5 to 8 PPG (if Mamu left, would be interesting to see what the upside is here)
Ike: 3 to 5 PPG


Would appear we might be a pretty high scoring team if anyone believes above.

 

[SHUSA]

This is opinion and not based on any real research but figure three 10+ ppg scorers works out to between 45 and 50 points a game. For most teams there are roughly 20 to 25 more points to go around. As an example, we've averaged at least 73 ppg as a team every year since 2014-15 when we were at 68.5.

After those first three guys those points are going to be spread through eight or 10 other players but mostly between three or four other guys.

One other thing and the great outlier when talking ppg, Taurean Thompson averaged four points per game last year.

Two ways of looking at it. the best way is taking season totals and dividing by games. that will give the most accurate point share.

if were going on player pts per games they play total team points wont matter for this exercise

 

[sportsfantatic44]

If Ike is only averaging 3 points per game I would think we are in for a long season.

2 biggest keys to season are Aiken staying healthy and Ike has to improve offensively and on the glass. If he’s only averaging 3 points a game and not rebounding then I’d agree that’s gonna be a major problem. I don’t like Mamu having to play the 5 a lot.

 

[dehere23]

Unless Aiken gets hurt I don’t see a scenario in which he isn’t the leading scorer. He is a score-first lead guard who will have the ball in his hands all the time, have an absolute green light and likely get FT chances at the end of games more than others.

 

[SHUSA]

aiken isnt used to the slog of games against big east defenses

 

[HallBall02]

2 biggest keys to season are Aiken staying healthy and Ike has to improve offensively and on the glass. If he’s only averaging 3 points a game and not rebounding then I’d agree that’s gonna be a major problem. I don’t like Mamu having to play the 5 a lot.

I’d echo about Ike, but add that his defense (Besides blocking shots) needs to improve a lot. He would so often last year push his player when they had the ball or backing down that I was surprised he wasn’t called for more fouls. Needs to keep arms up.

 

[SPK145]

I don't see next season's team averaging more points than last season so I see it like this:

Sandro Mamukelashvili - 15ppg
Bryce Aiken - 14ppg
Jared Rhoden - 10ppg
Myles Cale - 8ppg
Takal Molson - 6ppg
Tyrese Samuel - 6ppg
Shavar Reynolds - 4ppg
Ike Obiagu - 3ppg
Dimingus Stevens - 3ppg
Jahari Long - 2ppg
Jeff Ngandu - 2ppg

Total - 73ppg

 

[Seton75]

I think we are gonna be good. Again. If jared, Bryce or sandro is all league level, that would not be shocking. If molson is a solid starter, that is not a surprise. If cale got back to his soph form, if samuel takes a big step up, not surprising. If shav give us anywhere close to last year, not a surprise.

Of course, none of these guys have ever played a shu game without Myles. I think they are ready, and have no doubt about Bryce who has been the man before. His ability to stay injury free of course is a huge deal for us.

I am an ikey believer, but I get the concern about him. In angel and kcs jr yr, we had 2 dead spots on the offense and were pretty darned good, so I think we can deal with low production from the center spot. And sandro and tyrese can help out.

Wonder what the frosh can bring? Do we have a surprise or 2?