INSIDER
Forget all the talk about the Year of the Freshman. The upperclassmen headline the crop of talent at the Final Four in Phoenix and look to lead their teams to the title game Monday night. (1:23)
Mar 30, 2017
These are the performance features of these teams and their players that really stand out:
If Dillon Brooks starts playing like Tyler Dorsey and Jordan Bell, look out
In the tournament, Dorsey has been playing offense about as well as it can be played. When you're hitting 65 percent of your 3s and shooting even better than that on your 2s (68 percent), you're what announcers call a matchup nightmare.
Luke Maye was already having a breakout tournament before that last-second shot
No Tar Heel, not even Justin Jackson, is now more likely to take a shot from the field when he's on the floor than Maye. The sophomore has personally accounted for 30 percent of UNC's tournament shot attempts. In fact, he and Kennedy Meeks are tied for the "most efficient scorers from the field" honors for the Heels, and Meeks is doing so at a much lower volume. Maye is a legitimate threat to score from either side of the arc, and he also has been North Carolina's second-best defensive rebounder.
If an Oregon opponent actually (gasp!) makes 3s, look out
With tournament opponents turning the ball over on only 14 percent of their possessions, and those same opponents hitting shots inside the arc at a 53-percent rate, Oregon has been very fortunate to yield as few points as it has. Give the credit to the very poor perimeter shooting of Rhode Island and Kansas. When combined with the better shooting of Iona and Michigan, the Ducks' opponents have converted just 31 percent of their 3-point tries.
It's possible Chris Boucher's absence (knee injury) really does (or will) make a difference in how good this Oregon defense is. We just haven't been able to tell because of poor shooting on 3s by opponents. Put it this way: It will matter whether or not Justin Jackson is "on" from the perimeter when the Ducks face North Carolina.
Gonzaga's offense has been terrible, and the Bulldogs are still standing
Nigel Williams-Goss has connected on only 30 percent of his 2s. Again, Williams-Goss is shooting 30 percent inside the arc. That's exactly half the success rate he posted in West Coast Conference play. No wonder coach Mark Few's team has scored just 1.03 points per trip over the past four games, by far the worst mark of any offense still playing.
True, Few's offense looked markedly better against Xavier, thanks to 12 made 3s. Still, even against the Musketeers, the Bulldogs struggled to score inside the arc. This is moderately shocking, inasmuch as production in the paint was this team's bread and butter for the 30 games leading into the NCAA tournament.
Part of the problem is sheer volume. Przemek Karnowski is now taking slightly fewer shots per possession, but any dip there pales in comparison to the one recorded by Zach Collins. For whatever reason, the freshman has taken a vow of shot abstinence in the tournament. Now those attempts are going to Williams-Goss, and they're not going in the basket.
PJ Dozier has been hypnotized
I've already made reference to Dozier's amazing postseason turnaround this week, but it bears repeating because his 180 so neatly tracks that of the South Carolina offense as a whole. While Sindarius Thornwell has been reliably outstanding more or less all along, Dozier has improved his 2-point accuracy from 40 percent (in SEC play) to 67 percent (NCAA tournament).
Scoring inside the arc has indeed been the biggest single difference between a Gamecocks offense that lost to Alabama 64-53 in the SEC tournament quarterfinals and the juggernaut we now see before us. South Carolina has scored 1.16 points per trip in the tournament, even though this is still an offense that does not make a high number of 3s. If you saw any of this coming, take a well-deserved bow.
About two-thirds of South Carolina's magic has been due to turnover margin
On each "effective" (turnover-less) possession, the Gamecocks have outscored their tournament opponents by an average margin of 0.12 points. Conversely, South Carolina has been 0.19 points better overall than Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.
Opposing tournament offenses are giving the ball away 24 percent of the time against coach Frank Martin's defense. For years the conventional wisdom has held that a defense reliant upon forcing turnovers will die a quick death in March, as the best teams and, more specifically, best guards inevitably show up on the opposing sideline. As you might have noticed, that hasn't happened with the Gamecocks, and indeed, that 24 percent opponent turnover rate is unusually close to what South Carolina recorded in SEC play (25 percent).
Assists might be overrated, or at least misunderstood
Whenever I watch a game and an announcer or graphic says Team X has assisted on some incredible percentage of its made field goals, I can't help thinking the same thing. Does that mean the amazing play where Player Y took his defender off the dribble and dunked was somehow a bad thing?
Apparently three of the four teams coming to Arizona this weekend have had that same thought. Oregon, South Carolina and Gonzaga have all recorded assist rates in the tournament that, if extended across an entire season, would land them somewhere in the 300s in the Division I rankings for this particular metric. Conversely, North Carolina has posted a very healthy assist rate over the past four games. This has been primarily the work of -- prepare to be surprised -- Jackson.
Does this mean the Tar Heels' offense has some kind of built-in advantage at the Final Four? I doubt it. Anyway, Oregon and South Carolina are scoring as many points as UNC on far fewer assists.
Forget all the talk about the Year of the Freshman. The upperclassmen headline the crop of talent at the Final Four in Phoenix and look to lead their teams to the title game Monday night. (1:23)
Mar 30, 2017
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John GasawayESPN Insider
These are the performance features of these teams and their players that really stand out:
If Dillon Brooks starts playing like Tyler Dorsey and Jordan Bell, look out
In the tournament, Dorsey has been playing offense about as well as it can be played. When you're hitting 65 percent of your 3s and shooting even better than that on your 2s (68 percent), you're what announcers call a matchup nightmare.
Luke Maye was already having a breakout tournament before that last-second shot
No Tar Heel, not even Justin Jackson, is now more likely to take a shot from the field when he's on the floor than Maye. The sophomore has personally accounted for 30 percent of UNC's tournament shot attempts. In fact, he and Kennedy Meeks are tied for the "most efficient scorers from the field" honors for the Heels, and Meeks is doing so at a much lower volume. Maye is a legitimate threat to score from either side of the arc, and he also has been North Carolina's second-best defensive rebounder.
If an Oregon opponent actually (gasp!) makes 3s, look out
With tournament opponents turning the ball over on only 14 percent of their possessions, and those same opponents hitting shots inside the arc at a 53-percent rate, Oregon has been very fortunate to yield as few points as it has. Give the credit to the very poor perimeter shooting of Rhode Island and Kansas. When combined with the better shooting of Iona and Michigan, the Ducks' opponents have converted just 31 percent of their 3-point tries.
It's possible Chris Boucher's absence (knee injury) really does (or will) make a difference in how good this Oregon defense is. We just haven't been able to tell because of poor shooting on 3s by opponents. Put it this way: It will matter whether or not Justin Jackson is "on" from the perimeter when the Ducks face North Carolina.
Gonzaga's offense has been terrible, and the Bulldogs are still standing
Nigel Williams-Goss has connected on only 30 percent of his 2s. Again, Williams-Goss is shooting 30 percent inside the arc. That's exactly half the success rate he posted in West Coast Conference play. No wonder coach Mark Few's team has scored just 1.03 points per trip over the past four games, by far the worst mark of any offense still playing.
True, Few's offense looked markedly better against Xavier, thanks to 12 made 3s. Still, even against the Musketeers, the Bulldogs struggled to score inside the arc. This is moderately shocking, inasmuch as production in the paint was this team's bread and butter for the 30 games leading into the NCAA tournament.
Part of the problem is sheer volume. Przemek Karnowski is now taking slightly fewer shots per possession, but any dip there pales in comparison to the one recorded by Zach Collins. For whatever reason, the freshman has taken a vow of shot abstinence in the tournament. Now those attempts are going to Williams-Goss, and they're not going in the basket.
PJ Dozier has been hypnotized
I've already made reference to Dozier's amazing postseason turnaround this week, but it bears repeating because his 180 so neatly tracks that of the South Carolina offense as a whole. While Sindarius Thornwell has been reliably outstanding more or less all along, Dozier has improved his 2-point accuracy from 40 percent (in SEC play) to 67 percent (NCAA tournament).
Scoring inside the arc has indeed been the biggest single difference between a Gamecocks offense that lost to Alabama 64-53 in the SEC tournament quarterfinals and the juggernaut we now see before us. South Carolina has scored 1.16 points per trip in the tournament, even though this is still an offense that does not make a high number of 3s. If you saw any of this coming, take a well-deserved bow.
About two-thirds of South Carolina's magic has been due to turnover margin
On each "effective" (turnover-less) possession, the Gamecocks have outscored their tournament opponents by an average margin of 0.12 points. Conversely, South Carolina has been 0.19 points better overall than Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida.
Opposing tournament offenses are giving the ball away 24 percent of the time against coach Frank Martin's defense. For years the conventional wisdom has held that a defense reliant upon forcing turnovers will die a quick death in March, as the best teams and, more specifically, best guards inevitably show up on the opposing sideline. As you might have noticed, that hasn't happened with the Gamecocks, and indeed, that 24 percent opponent turnover rate is unusually close to what South Carolina recorded in SEC play (25 percent).
Assists might be overrated, or at least misunderstood
Whenever I watch a game and an announcer or graphic says Team X has assisted on some incredible percentage of its made field goals, I can't help thinking the same thing. Does that mean the amazing play where Player Y took his defender off the dribble and dunked was somehow a bad thing?
Apparently three of the four teams coming to Arizona this weekend have had that same thought. Oregon, South Carolina and Gonzaga have all recorded assist rates in the tournament that, if extended across an entire season, would land them somewhere in the 300s in the Division I rankings for this particular metric. Conversely, North Carolina has posted a very healthy assist rate over the past four games. This has been primarily the work of -- prepare to be surprised -- Jackson.
Does this mean the Tar Heels' offense has some kind of built-in advantage at the Final Four? I doubt it. Anyway, Oregon and South Carolina are scoring as many points as UNC on far fewer assists.
