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Vegas power ranking of Sweet 16 teams
Defending champion and overall No. 1 seed Villanova was our top-rated team heading into the NCAA tournament but was upset by Wisconsin 65-62 in Saturday's second round. Gonzaga was our No. 2 team last week and defeated South Dakota State and Northwestern to advance to the Sweet 16. Gonzaga actually failed to cover the spread the spread in both games, but our panel didn't lower its power rating for the Bulldogs. In fact, since all Sweet 16 teams obviously won since our last poll, no team's power rating was lowered (including Kentucky, which joined Gonzaga as the only teams to go 0-2 ATS).
The power ratings of our ESPN Chalk panel (which includes yours truly, along with ESPN predictive analyst Rufus Peabody and input from other college basketball handicappers) were all averaged out and converted to a scale that resembles ESPN's Basketball Power Index, which actually has North Carolina (19.6) ranked ahead of Gonzaga (19.5) by the slightest of margins (though technically BPI has Villanova as its top-rated team as it still includes all Division I teams even if they're eliminated or playing in the NIT or CBI).
Here is a look at the current power ratings for the remaining 16 teams. You can use these to compare to the current point spreads, though we certainly encourage readers to come up with their own power ratings -- using these as a basis -- but adjusted for teams you feel we have overrated or underrated.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Vegas power ranking: 19.5 (last week: 19.5)
BPI: 19.5 (3)
The Bulldogs dominated South Dakota State 66-46 in the first round, but fell short of the 23.5-point spread and then beat Northwestern 79-73, again falling short as 11-point favorites. Gonzaga is still an impressive 22-9-1 ATS despite being 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as oddsmakers have caught up to them since their 19-4-1 ATS (82.6 percent) start to the season.
2. North Carolina Tar Heels
VPR: 19 (last week: 19)
BPI: 19.6 (2)
The Tar Heels rolled over Texas Southern 103-64 to also easily cover as 26.5-point favorites, but had a harder time putting away Arkansas before prevailing 72-65 but falling short of the 11.5-point spread. North Carolina is still a respectable 18-15-2 ATS despite having to often lay a lot of points.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
VPR: 18.5 (last week: 18)
BPI: 17.6 (8)
The Jayhawks routed UC Davis 100-62 to easily cover as 23-point favorites and then pulled away late against Michigan State to win 90-70 to cover as 8-point faves. That 2-0 ATS performance earned Kansas a half-point increase in its power rating.
4. Kentucky Wildcats
VPR: 18 (last week: 18)
BPI: 17.1 (12)
The Wildcats looked like they were going to rout Northern Kentucky, but they let the Norse back in the game and only won 79-70 as 20-point favorites. They also failed to cover as 3.5-point faves in their 65-62 victory over Wichita State. However, our panel opted to keep Kentucky's power rating the same.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers
VPR: 17.5 (last week: 17.5)
BPI: 17.9 (5)
The Mountaineers beat Bucknell 86-80 and didn't cover as 13.5-point favorites, but then they beat Notre Dame 83-71 Sunday to cover as 2.5-point favorites. Their ATS split keeps the Mountaineers at the same power rating.
6. Florida Gators
VPR: 17 (last week: 16)
BPI: 18.4 (4)
The Gators beat East Tennessee State 80-65 to cover as 9.5-point favorites and then followed that up with one of the most dominant performances of the NCAA tournament in routing Virginia 65-39 to easily cover as 1.5-point favorites. That helped earned them a full one-point upgrade and move up from a tie for 10th last week (with UCLA and Purdue) to our No. 6 team (though not as drastic of an increase as ESPN's BPI which has them at No. 4).
T-7. UCLA Bruins
VPR: 16.5 (last week: 16)
BPI: 17.1 (11)
The Bruins routed Kent State 97-80 but didn't cover the huge 20-point spread and then beat Cincinnati 79-67 to cover as 4-point favorites. Our panel didn't penalize UCLA too much for the non-cover against Kent State as it increased its power rating by half a point.
T-7. Purdue Boilermakers
VPR: 16.5 (last week: 16)
BPI: 16.8 (13)
The Boilermakers beat Vermont 80-70 to barely cover as nine-point favorites in the first round, and they followed that up with an 80-76 victory over Iowa State in a game that closed at pick 'em. Purdue still has the second-best ATS (behind Gonzaga) record among NCAA tourney teams at 18-11-2 ATS.
Vegas power ranking of Sweet 16 teams
- Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
Defending champion and overall No. 1 seed Villanova was our top-rated team heading into the NCAA tournament but was upset by Wisconsin 65-62 in Saturday's second round. Gonzaga was our No. 2 team last week and defeated South Dakota State and Northwestern to advance to the Sweet 16. Gonzaga actually failed to cover the spread the spread in both games, but our panel didn't lower its power rating for the Bulldogs. In fact, since all Sweet 16 teams obviously won since our last poll, no team's power rating was lowered (including Kentucky, which joined Gonzaga as the only teams to go 0-2 ATS).
The power ratings of our ESPN Chalk panel (which includes yours truly, along with ESPN predictive analyst Rufus Peabody and input from other college basketball handicappers) were all averaged out and converted to a scale that resembles ESPN's Basketball Power Index, which actually has North Carolina (19.6) ranked ahead of Gonzaga (19.5) by the slightest of margins (though technically BPI has Villanova as its top-rated team as it still includes all Division I teams even if they're eliminated or playing in the NIT or CBI).
Here is a look at the current power ratings for the remaining 16 teams. You can use these to compare to the current point spreads, though we certainly encourage readers to come up with their own power ratings -- using these as a basis -- but adjusted for teams you feel we have overrated or underrated.
Vegas power ranking: 19.5 (last week: 19.5)
BPI: 19.5 (3)
The Bulldogs dominated South Dakota State 66-46 in the first round, but fell short of the 23.5-point spread and then beat Northwestern 79-73, again falling short as 11-point favorites. Gonzaga is still an impressive 22-9-1 ATS despite being 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as oddsmakers have caught up to them since their 19-4-1 ATS (82.6 percent) start to the season.
VPR: 19 (last week: 19)
BPI: 19.6 (2)
The Tar Heels rolled over Texas Southern 103-64 to also easily cover as 26.5-point favorites, but had a harder time putting away Arkansas before prevailing 72-65 but falling short of the 11.5-point spread. North Carolina is still a respectable 18-15-2 ATS despite having to often lay a lot of points.
VPR: 18.5 (last week: 18)
BPI: 17.6 (8)
The Jayhawks routed UC Davis 100-62 to easily cover as 23-point favorites and then pulled away late against Michigan State to win 90-70 to cover as 8-point faves. That 2-0 ATS performance earned Kansas a half-point increase in its power rating.
VPR: 18 (last week: 18)
BPI: 17.1 (12)
The Wildcats looked like they were going to rout Northern Kentucky, but they let the Norse back in the game and only won 79-70 as 20-point favorites. They also failed to cover as 3.5-point faves in their 65-62 victory over Wichita State. However, our panel opted to keep Kentucky's power rating the same.
VPR: 17.5 (last week: 17.5)
BPI: 17.9 (5)
The Mountaineers beat Bucknell 86-80 and didn't cover as 13.5-point favorites, but then they beat Notre Dame 83-71 Sunday to cover as 2.5-point favorites. Their ATS split keeps the Mountaineers at the same power rating.
VPR: 17 (last week: 16)
BPI: 18.4 (4)
The Gators beat East Tennessee State 80-65 to cover as 9.5-point favorites and then followed that up with one of the most dominant performances of the NCAA tournament in routing Virginia 65-39 to easily cover as 1.5-point favorites. That helped earned them a full one-point upgrade and move up from a tie for 10th last week (with UCLA and Purdue) to our No. 6 team (though not as drastic of an increase as ESPN's BPI which has them at No. 4).
VPR: 16.5 (last week: 16)
BPI: 17.1 (11)
The Bruins routed Kent State 97-80 but didn't cover the huge 20-point spread and then beat Cincinnati 79-67 to cover as 4-point favorites. Our panel didn't penalize UCLA too much for the non-cover against Kent State as it increased its power rating by half a point.
VPR: 16.5 (last week: 16)
BPI: 16.8 (13)
The Boilermakers beat Vermont 80-70 to barely cover as nine-point favorites in the first round, and they followed that up with an 80-76 victory over Iowa State in a game that closed at pick 'em. Purdue still has the second-best ATS (behind Gonzaga) record among NCAA tourney teams at 18-11-2 ATS.
