Biden Email Red Flag

[Merge]

That’s as absurd as saying when the market corrects itself and goes down it’s a recession. Nobody’s calling for a recession. That’s just dumb.

Negative CPI which you just hoped for would mean that people aren't buying goods. If people stop buying goods, the economy shrinks which will lead to recession.
We don't need negative CPI. We needed supply shocks from the pandemic and war in Ukraine and bird flu and overall prices to stabilize which they have. Now we need wages to rise to meet the new price levels, which they are. Average hourly earnings are rising faster during Biden's term than Trump's by a fair margin.

Like you said though, the data doesn't matter. People need to feel it.

 

[cernjSHU]

That’s as absurd as saying when the market corrects itself and goes down it’s a recession. Nobody’s calling for a recession. That’s just dumb.

You stated “you would hope one of the following years the rates would go negative”. In the history of the US, inflation rates when rates have gone negative was during the Great Depression and the Great Recession. Since these are facts, I have no idea why you think this is an absurd statement. So if the inflation rate goes negative, that means you have a bad economy and recession. See the chart below for historical data when inflation went negative. It went negative once in 60 years during the Great Recession. Also please check out the years to see how high inflation was during 1973 to 1982

Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2024

The table displays historical inflation rates with annual figures from 1914 to the present. These inflation rates are calculated using the Consumer Price Index, which is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The latest BLS data, covering up to...

www.usinflationcalculator.com

 

[Merge]

Serious question…do you really think he is going to campaign? He hasn’t had a solo press conference since last summer and only three last year. He’s passing on the Super Bowl and a chance to sell his administration to over 100 million people.

You are correct in that Trump is the only Republican he can beat.

I don't think he is capable of a full blown campaign, but he will. They will do plenty of commercials, his surrogates will push whatever messaging they come up with and he will do some events.

It's still very early though.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

You stated “you would hope one of the following years the rates would go negative”. In the history of the US, inflation rates when rates have gone negative was during the Great Depression and the Great Recession. Since these are facts, I have no idea why you think this is an absurd statement. So if the inflation rate goes negative, that means you have a bad economy and recession. See the chart below for historical data when inflation went negative. It went negative once in 60 years during the Great Recession. Also please check out the years to see how high inflation was during 1973 to 1982

Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2024

The table displays historical inflation rates with annual figures from 1914 to the present. These inflation rates are calculated using the Consumer Price Index, which is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor. The latest BLS data, covering up to...

www.usinflationcalculator.com

Prices falling don't have to be lead to a recession. Your own comment shows how gas prices and food prices fell, it hasn't lead to a recession. If employment rises and people are making money and prices correct themselves that's not going to lead to a recession or depression.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

He is right though.

That must have been tough to type.

Biden hasn't really started campaigning yet, but he certainly needs to do a better job of selling his policies.

Campaign starts this Sunday when he heads to the basement neglecting to talk to the highest rated program in the country every year. Brilliant move in an election year especially when you consider a good number of polls show he's trailing. Let's see if CBS picks up Trump's offer to interview him on Superbowl Sunday. They should. It would come across as CBS won't let him speak if they don't and he'll use it during his campaign.-

 

[HALL85]

I don't think he is capable of a full blown campaign, but he will. They will do plenty of commercials, his surrogates will push whatever messaging they come up with and he will do some events.

It's still very early though.

He had the pandemic as a way to avoid campaigning four years ago and he can’t do that now.

At the end of the day, voters need to see him in public situations, including the debates. This is why his approval ratings are low. People see the decline and are losing confidence in him…the messaging doesn’t mean anything whether it be commercials or surrogates. He’s the problem.

A few weeks ago he was in Allentown and they limited his interactions to a few dozen people and kept the public far away. Shut down traffic in the region for hours for basically a photo op which he embarrassed himself and stumbled through.

 

[cernjSHU]

Prices falling don't have to be lead to a recession. Your own comment shows how gas prices and food prices fell, it hasn't lead to a recession. If employment rises and people are making money and prices correct themselves that's not going to lead to a recession or depression.

First, You were talking about inflation rates going negative. When that happens you have a recession. I quoted you so there was no mistake.

Second, now you are switching it to pricing for goods. Here is a chart in milk prices. There is fluctuations. In 2023, prices at one time were in line to the average over the past few years but then it rose again. Now it is coming down. But according to this chart, at this point in time it’s roughly the same price as it was just before the pandemic.

USDA - National Agricultural Statistics Service - Charts and Maps - Prices Received: Milk Prices Received by Month, US

USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Information. NASS publications cover a wide range of subjects, from traditional crops, such as corn and wheat, to specialties, such as mushrooms and flowers; from calves born to hogs slaughtered; from agricultural prices to land in farms. The agency...

www.nass.usda.gov

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

First, You were talking about inflation rates going negative. When that happens you have a recession. I quoted you so there was no mistake.

Here's where deflation was in November 2023 — in one chart

Deflation is the opposite of inflation: it's when prices fall instead of rise. Some sectors have seen deflation over the past year.

www.cnbc.com

You'll also find other countries that had years of steady decrease in prices with no signs of truly weak economy like Switzerland. Curious how the job market was during depression and recession. That may tell the story more than inflation or deflation.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Lol food has not come down. Why do you guys keep repeating that untrue comment. Doesn't erase the new world of permanent high prcing that they are only increasing 3.4%

.and just saw gas prices went up 11 cents in my area last week so we shall see

cern is a DEM parrot

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

playing with a full deck

 

[ed odowd]

Historical definition of recession was two negative growth quarters in a row ,but the last time that happen Yellen said it was not a recession.Not sure if that definition still holds.

 

[HALL85]

playing with a full deck

View embedded media

Every day…amazing that it’s hands off from comedians doing parodies on Biden. So sad it’s not funny.

 

[bac2therac]

Every day…amazing that it’s hands off from comedians doing parodies on Biden. So sad it’s not funny.

Its a game...so many in on it playing pretend

 

[SHUSA]

Every day…amazing that it’s hands off from comedians doing parodies on Biden. So sad it’s not funny.

not sure if this is in response to all the comedians making fun of trump. which is dumb. trump is 10/10 comedy gold compared to anyone really. guy is a walking meme.

and biden doesnt go out of his way to do something stupid. hes not desperately trying to be in the spot light every second. he doesnt tweet every second.

 

[SHUSA]

how many people in this thread are in a financially better place now then when biden took office? id wager 100%. not sure what theyre whining about. personally im whining at my $10k capped deduction thanks to Trump.

 

[HALL85]

how many people in this thread are in a financially better place now then when biden took office? id wager 100%. not sure what theyre whining about. personally im whining at my $10k capped deduction thanks to Trump.

I don’t depend on a President to do well financially. I do worry about the state of our country and our kids future.

 

[HALL85]

not sure if this is in response to all the comedians making fun of trump. which is dumb. trump is 10/10 comedy gold compared to anyone really. guy is a walking meme.

and biden doesnt go out of his way to do something stupid. hes not desperately trying to be in the spot light every second. he doesnt tweet every second.

Whataboutism?

 

[SHUSA]

Whataboutism?

what a dumb term. address my statement. why do you all of a sudden care about something like that now? answer it

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

how many people in this thread are in a financially better place now then when biden took office? id wager 100%. not sure what theyre whining about. personally im whining at my $10k capped deduction thanks to Trump.

Lot of people whining about the 10k limit with no understanding that their employer has more money to pay them thanks to 199A.

 

[SHUSA]

I don’t depend on a President to do well financially. I do worry about the state of our country and our kids future.

and avoiding what was seen as an inevitable recession was good for our country right?

 

[SHUSA]

Lot of people whining about the 10k limit with no understanding that their employer has more money to pay them thanks to 199A.

199a the deduction for business owners?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

199a the deduction for business owners?

Is there another 199A?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

. personally im whining at my $10k capped deduction thanks to Trump.

Look at it from the perspective that you’re contributing more to the federal government subsidizing migrants that Hochul, Adams, and Johnson can’t afford. When they ask Biden for more money, consider it your contribution and you won’t be whining. Why not decline all deductions to contribute more? One thing about our government they won’t decline your generosity.

 

[SHUSA]

Is there another 199A?

and how many people does it apply to?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

and how many people does it apply to?

The overwhelming majority of non corporations.

 

[HALL85]

and avoiding what was seen as an inevitable recession was good for our country right?

I don’t root for recessions…odd take on your part.

 

[HALL85]

what a dumb term. address my statement. why do you all of a sudden care about something like that now? answer it

Comedians make fun of Trump all the time. Hands off on Biden. Both give tons of material. Why is that?

 

[Merge]

Lot of people whining about the 10k limit with no understanding that their employer has more money to pay them thanks to 199A.

Can you explain how you think that works?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Can you explain how you think that works?

Small business owners having a ton of difficulty finding good workers so they’re investing more in the good ones they have. They can’t afford to lose the good ones.

 

[Merge]

Small business owners having a ton of difficulty finding good workers so they’re investing more in the good ones they have. They can’t afford to lose the good ones.

They are having trouble funding good workers because of 199A?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

They are having trouble funding good workers because of 199A?

No the workforce sucks. Nobody wants to work. Because of 199A they have additional funds to take care of the good people they have. Follow along.

 

[Merge]

No the workforce sucks. Nobody wants to work. Because of 199A they have additional funds to take care of the good people they have. Follow along.

Hard to follow along when what you're saying doesn't really make any sense.

There are more people working now than ever before. Prime age working rate higher than at any point since the housing collapse in 2008! and you think no one wants to work? You're just making stuff up.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

and you think no one wants to work? You're just making stuff up.

You're so out of touch of with the real world. Go talk to your local pizza guy, your local restaurant, it's tax time your local accountant, your local deli, etc. They all say nobody wants to work. The meaning is nobody wants to work hard, but that's what is happening out there in the real world. My local pizza guy is on his 4th new pizza guy since Thanksgiving because they're all lazy. But you're excited by the fact there's 4 different guys looking to work, despite none do the job required. I'd love to hear what they say if you ask them.

 

[Merge]

You're so out of touch of with the real world. Go talk to your local pizza guy, your local restaurant, it's tax time your local accountant, your local deli, etc. They all say nobody wants to work. The meaning is nobody wants to work hard, but that's what is happening out there in the real world. I'd love to hear what they say if you ask them.

The reason they say that no one wants to work is that they can't find people. The reason they can't find people is because employment is strong.

The number of unemployed to the number of job openings is at historic lows. That's why there is a perception that "no one wants to work"... Again, more people employed than ever and prime age rate of employed is the highest it has been in decades.
That's real world data. I'd buy the argument that people "don't want to work" if the employment numbers were not so strong currently.

 

[SPK145]

personally im whining at my $10k capped deduction thanks to Trump.

You whining about your lower tax rate too?

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

The reason they say that no one wants to work is that they can't find people. The reason they can't find people is because employment is strong.

The number of unemployed to the number of job openings is at historic lows. That's why there is a perception that "no one wants to work"... Again, more people employed than ever and prime age rate of employed is the highest it has been in decades.
That's real world data. I'd buy the argument that people "don't want to work" if the employment numbers were not so strong currently.

What does that have to with employers not finding workers. The basis of what you say operates under the assumption that people are content with their job and loyal to their boss. Neither is true for the majority of Americans. Everyone is not maxing out their pay capabilities and just so content to stay where they are. People are always looking. Let me know when they hire at your place if they're only looking for people out of a job or if they're hiring other people currently employed.

 

[Merge]

You whining about your lower tax rate too?

I'd agree most people are paying less today than pre-TCJA.

 

[Merge]

What does that have to with employers not finding workers. The basis of what you say operates under the assumption that people are content with their job and loyal to their boss. Neither is true for the majority of Americans. Everyone is not maxing out their pay capabilities and just so content to stay where they are. People are always looking. Let me know when they hire at your place if they're only looking for people out of a job or if they're hiring other people currently employed.

You're just making stuff up honestly.

Employers not finding workers is because people aren't looking. People aren't looking because they either have a job or are content where they are. People are content where they are because employers have have to raise wages in the competitive environment.

That's not a supply side argument. People who own companies didn't increase wages to employees because of their personal 199A deduction. Wages are increasing more today than they did after the TCJA passed because employment is strong.