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COVID and Resulting Teen Deaths

HALL85

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https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2023/0...ths-in-the-u-s-are-rising-at-a-shocking-rate/

Collateral damage from radical lifestyle changes made during COVID in our youth. Mental health, nutrition, etc.

"The alarming truth is that the decrease in U.S. life expectancy has come at the expense of teenagers, young adults and those in early middle age. This is not the result of COVID-19; in 2021 alone, more potential years of American life were lost because of drugs (primarily opiates), road deaths, firearm violence and obesity than years lost from COVID-19 during the entire pandemic."
 
Collateral damage from radical lifestyle changes made during COVID in our youth

Nothing in that link suggested that.

and that op-ed is odd - "The bad news is that the number of overall excess U.S. deaths — the difference between expected numbers of deaths from all causes and the actual number of deaths observed — is rising at a shocking rate. "
Excess deaths are not "rising at a shocking rate" anymore.

They did rise at a shocking rate during the pandemic and that pretty much ended a year ago with some much smaller bumps along the way.
 
And that op-Ed is odd because it doesn’t support your POV?
 
And that op-Ed is odd because it doesn’t support your POV?

"rising at a shocking rate" is not an accurate characterization of excess deaths in 2023. Excess deaths for Jan / Feb 2023 was 1/10th what it was in 2022.

Yes, that is odd for anyone to characterize excess deaths as rising at a shocking rate right now because it's wrong.

The stuff you added about anything in there being from collateral damage from radical lifestyle changes is just your own biased interpretation as well. They didn't suggest that.
 
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Disrupting the economy and locking down young, healthy people will not be viewed kindly by history. One of the worst policy decisions ever made in this country.
The nonsense the union pulled in certain states with public schools should never, ever, be forgotten. I certainly won't forget it. Not to mention all the businesses and livelihoods needlessly destroyed.
 
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The nonsense the union pulled in certain states with public schools should never, ever, be forgotten. I certainly won't forget it. Not to mention all the businesses and livelihoods needlessly destroyed.
Extended and unnecessary school closings and remote teaching along with poor/non-existent public messaging has greatly contributed to a mental health crisis and and unhealthier youth population.
 
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Disrupting the economy and locking down young, healthy people will not be viewed kindly by history. One of the worst policy decisions ever made in this country.

I think there was a period of time where we really didn’t have a choice. It’s easy to say we got it wrong but had we not shut down when we did, before any vaccine or treatment was available, the virus wold have impacted us much worse than it did and it would have been happening everywhere. More teachers would have died, more parents would have died, more hospitals would have been overwhelmed etc.

Though, there was also a period of time where we we learned more, had a vaccine and treatments and still failed to reverse course for young and healthy people. That was a mistake in my opinion and where I would tend to agree with you.

That said, the political argument of young people dying because of Covid restrictions is just made up and ignoring the context of the fact that teen suicide and overdose deaths were rising before 2020. There is zero evidence to suggest that Covid restrictions made those issues worse.

Suicide deaths declined in 2020 but increased in 2021, but the rates for both years were lower than 2018. Overdose deaths obviously have increased significantly over the last several years (stabilizing over the last 7-8 months) but that started well before Covid because of the prevalence of fentanyl and 85 himself warned about fentanyl years ago and that overdose deaths would exceed 100k a year. Now that we’re there, we point the blame only on the restrictions?
 
I think there was a period of time where we really didn’t have a choice. It’s easy to say we got it wrong but had we not shut down when we did, before any vaccine or treatment was available, the virus wold have impacted us much worse than it did and it would have been happening everywhere. More teachers would have died, more parents would have died, more hospitals would have been overwhelmed etc.
No one is suggesting that we should not have shut down schools for a period of time, but it should have been much shorter. The extended emote/hybrid models were a big mistake and politics (teachers union antics) took precedent. What makes it worse is that the kids that could least afford it (urban areas) were effected the most.
Though, there was also a period of time where we we learned more, had a vaccine and treatments and still failed to reverse course for young and healthy people. That was a mistake in my opinion and where I would tend to agree with you.

That said, the political argument of young people dying because of Covid restrictions is just made up and ignoring the context of the fact that teen suicide and overdose deaths were rising before 2020. There is zero evidence to suggest that Covid restrictions made those issues worse.
It's not made up, because if you talk to any mental health professional that is treating these kids, they will tell you that lockdowns have had a profound effect in many ways.
Suicide deaths declined in 2020 but increased in 2021, but the rates for both years were lower than 2018. Overdose deaths obviously have increased significantly over the last several years (stabilizing over the last 7-8 months) but that started well before Covid because of the prevalence of fentanyl and 85 himself warned about fentanyl years ago and that overdose deaths would exceed 100k a year. Now that we’re there, we point the blame only on the restrictions?
 
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No one is suggesting that we should not have shut down schools for a period of time, but it should have been much shorter. The extended emote/hybrid models were a big mistake and politics (teachers union antics) took precedent. What makes it worse is that the kids that could least afford it (urban areas) were effected the most.

I'd agree with that.

It's not made up, because if you talk to any mental health professional that is treating these kids, they will tell you that lockdowns have had a profound effect in many ways.

The part about deaths being the result of collateral damage was made up.
Had you started the thread about kids being effected by restrictions, this conversation would be different.
You didn't though, you started the thread linking the young deaths the author noted from "drugs (primarily opiates), road deaths, firearm violence and obesity" as being collateral damage from radical lifestyle changes.

Not only did the author not make that link, but it's entirely false. As I've pointed out to you when you tried to make this link previously, if that were the case - the areas with more restrictions would have seen worse results than the areas with no restrictions. However, that is not what the results showed.
 
The nonsense the union pulled in certain states with public schools should never, ever, be forgotten. I certainly won't forget it. Not to mention all the businesses and livelihoods needlessly destroyed.
Here is the thing about businesses, there were many businesses that had their biggest years during CoVid. Those who adjusted survived and thrived. Yes there were casualties, but no one ever talks about the businesses who flourished during that time.
Without the government assistance, it would have been far worse for business. But I think the destroyed business are off set by those created and those that thrives.
 
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2023/0...ths-in-the-u-s-are-rising-at-a-shocking-rate/

Collateral damage from radical lifestyle changes made during COVID in our youth. Mental health, nutrition, etc.

"The alarming truth is that the decrease in U.S. life expectancy has come at the expense of teenagers, young adults and those in early middle age. This is not the result of COVID-19; in 2021 alone, more potential years of American life were lost because of drugs (primarily opiates), road deaths, firearm violence and obesity than years lost from COVID-19 during the entire pandemic."
What a great article from the East Bay Times in Contra Costa County, California. Do you subscribe, or is Dr. Franklin one of the many experts in your big ‘dex? This isn’t quite as disturbing as posting 17 times a day while on vacation in Ireland, but searching the country for opinion articles to re-litigate Covid policies is a special kind of sad.
 
Here is the thing about businesses, there were many businesses that had their biggest years during CoVid. Those who adjusted survived and thrived. Yes there were casualties, but no one ever talks about the businesses who flourished during that time.
Without the government assistance, it would have been far worse for business. But I think the destroyed business are off set by those created and those that thrives.
That’s a pretty callous response for businesses that lost everything and didn’t have the ability to adjust because of the sector they were in.

Pizza restaurants made out great because that was one of the few things that people could order for takeout or delivery that would please the whole family. Many restaurants didn’t have that ability to re-invent.

How does a family that owns a bed and breakfast or a motel reinvent themselves? A quarter of private bus companies went out of business and have not reopened. Yes, there were winners, but stomping on the graves of the people that lost everything seems a little crass.
 
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That’s a pretty callous response for businesses that lost everything and didn’t have the ability to adjust because of the sector they were in.

Pizza restaurants made out great because that was one of the few things that people could order for takeout or delivery that would please the whole family. Many restaurants didn’t have that ability to re-invent.

How does a family that owns a bed and breakfast or a motel reinvent themselves? A quarter of private bus companies went out of business and have not reopened. Yes, there were winners, but stomping on the graves of the people that lost everything seems a little crass.
It's not callous, it is reality. I feel bad for everyone that lost their job. Every change of events this type of thing happens. This happens all the time. When technology took people's jobs at the GM plant, did you care and say how horrible that tech is taking jobs away? Or did you have the thought that it is really tough break for those who lost their jobs, but everyone must adjust and you can't stop technology?

A lot of people made big money. And many people lost a lot of money. It was not universal loss. And it wasn't just Pizza places that made money. So many sushi places still have not gone back to eat in because they made more money with less overhead just doing take out. In my neighborhood, I don't think a single restaurant went under.
 
It's not callous, it is reality. I feel bad for everyone that lost their job. Every change of events this type of thing happens. This happens all the time. When technology took people's jobs at the GM plant, did you care and say how horrible that tech is taking jobs away? Or did you have the thought that it is really tough break for those who lost their jobs, but everyone must adjust and you can't stop technology?

A lot of people made big money. And many people lost a lot of money. It was not universal loss. And it wasn't just Pizza places that made money. So many sushi places still have not gone back to eat in because they made more money with less overhead just doing take out. In my neighborhood, I don't think a single restaurant went under.
The difference with technology changes is that you have time to make choices to adjust or sell your business. The pandemic was immediate and compounded by arbitrary political decisions. A mom and pop hardware store was forced to close, but Home Depot was allowed to stay open. I’ve personally witnessed multi-generational businesses wiped out because of the lockdowns and arbitrary decisions.

Some businesses did very well….but more suffered with business declines or permanent shuttering.
 
The difference with technology changes is that you have time to make choices to adjust or sell your business. The pandemic was immediate and compounded by arbitrary political decisions. A mom and pop hardware store was forced to close, but Home Depot was allowed to stay open. I’ve personally witnessed multi-generational businesses wiped out because of the lockdowns and arbitrary decisions.

Some businesses did very well….but more suffered with business declines or permanent shuttering.
I do agree with that weird decision to let Home Depot stay open while small hardware shops had to close did not make any sense. That PPP money helped out a lot of businesses. I do realize that some business did not apply for the money or did not receive it and eventually shut down, However, this could have been a lot worse.
 
I do agree with that weird decision to let Home Depot stay open while small hardware shops had to close did not make any sense. That PPP money helped out a lot of businesses. I do realize that some business did not apply for the money or did not receive it and eventually shut down, However, this could have been a lot worse.
PPP and ERTC was very helpful to many businesses. Having been involved in the process with a number of family businesses, it was extremely challenging at the start, because most businesses really had no idea on how to project the impact with shut downs, extended time, etc.

I may have mentioned in an earlier post, that about a quarter of independent bus companies went out of business...something like 800 out of 3,200. Airline and rail were priorities and the stimulus money didn't hit them until much later.
 
I do agree with that weird decision to let Home Depot stay open while small hardware shops had to close did not make any sense. That PPP money helped out a lot of businesses. I do realize that some business did not apply for the money or did not receive it and eventually shut down, However, this could have been a lot worse.

Exactly. It's very easy to look at something and say it didn't work, but what's missing in a lot of these conversations is the considerations of the alternatives. It was a highly contagious virus which was the leading cause of death in the US at its peak, and those who weren't dying were getting very sick. That's going to have an incredibly negative impact on businesses no matter what the government does.
 
Exactly. It's very easy to look at something and say it didn't work, but what's missing in a lot of these conversations is the considerations of the alternatives. It was a highly contagious virus which was the leading cause of death in the US at its peak, and those who weren't dying were getting very sick. That's going to have an incredibly negative impact on businesses no matter what the government does.
There were some very good things that were developed during the pandemic, most notably Operation Warp Speed (OWS) and there were some very poor political decisions that destroyed family businesses. I think we can be fair and recognize both happened. As we've discussed, keeping schools closed for too long was a bad decision where the teachers union used their political influence for the wrong reasons....and children suffering as a result.
 
There were some very good things that were developed during the pandemic, most notably Operation Warp Speed (OWS) and there were some very poor political decisions that destroyed family businesses. I think we can be fair and recognize both happened. As we've discussed, keeping schools closed for too long was a bad decision where the teachers union used their political influence for the wrong reasons....and children suffering as a result.

Recognize faults, sure... but I don't agree with the takes that place blame on the government and ignore the fact that businesses would have still significantly suffered with a pandemic that was killing so many people had the government not placed any restrictions.

It's not like the companies that closed would have been otherwise thriving. It was a highly contagious virus that was making people very sick and was the leading cause of death in the US for an extended period of time. It was just not safe to be in crowded public areas. In your private bus company example, when people are dying in the tens of thousands each week from a highly contagious virus, people are going to be working from home and there is not going to be any demand for private tourism. It's just not really an industry that there was a solution for unfortunately. Their closures was not the fault of the government though, it was just the unfortunate circumstance of a once in a lifetime pandemic that none of us have ever lived through.
 
Exactly. It's very easy to look at something and say it didn't work, but what's missing in a lot of these conversations is the considerations of the alternatives. It was a highly contagious virus which was the leading cause of death in the US at its peak, and those who weren't dying were getting very sick. That's going to have an incredibly negative impact on businesses no matter what the government does.
My biggest critique of the entire response flows from the contrast in how it was handled by different states after the first few months (no problem with what anyone did at the beginning given the uncertainty and risk).

My little kids were f**cked with for 2 years in school up here, a district where I pay an enormous amount in taxes. And most of my colleagues kids were not because they were fortunate enough to live in a state run by a person who is not a slave to the teachers union and doesn't take marching orders from them. It is a fact that my kids did not have a normal school day until March/April 2022 (full day, in-person, no mask). And it is a fact that many of my colleagues kids were there by like June if not September 2020. And no "scientist" can tell me the virus exists in NJ or NY but does not exist in Florida or one of the other states people are flocking to in droves. Nor can any "scientist" tell me why in the fall of 2021 my kids had to do half-days in person but the Catholic School down the street could do full days in person.

The same holds true for many individual businesses, who were screwed with consistently in one place, but seemingly left alone in others. Technology developments impacting (or not impacting) business or a particular sector is different than unilateral policy decisions by government.
 
Recognize faults, sure... but I don't agree with the takes that place blame on the government and ignore the fact that businesses would have still significantly suffered with a pandemic that was killing so many people had the government not placed any restrictions.
You keep talking in absolutes. Some restrictions were necessary, but too many were arbitrary and for political reasons.
It's not like the companies that closed would have been otherwise thriving.
Once again...absolutes. There is a difference in thriving and surviving.
It was a highly contagious virus that was making people very sick and was the leading cause of death in the US for an extended period of time. It was just not safe to be in crowded public areas. In your private bus company example, when people are dying in the tens of thousands each week from a highly contagious virus, people are going to be working from home and there is not going to be any demand for private tourism. It's just not really an industry that there was a solution for unfortunately. Their closures was not the fault of the government though, it was just the unfortunate circumstance of a once in a lifetime pandemic that none of us have ever lived through.
You weren't paying attention on this one. The government didn't address stimulus money for bus transportation until later...in many cases after it was too late. I was told that their lobbyists were not as connected as other industries like the airline industry.

There is no better example of poor and politicized decisions like with our schools.
 
My little kids were f**cked with for 2 years in school up here, a district where I pay an enormous amount in taxes. And most of my colleagues kids were not because they were fortunate enough to live in a state run by a person who is not a slave to the teachers union and doesn't take marching orders from them. It is a fact that my kids did not have a normal school day until March/April 2022 (full day, in-person, no mask). And it is a fact that many of my colleagues kids were there by like June if not September 2020. And no "scientist" can tell me the virus exists in NJ or NY but does not exist in Florida or one of the other states people are flocking to in droves. Nor can any "scientist" tell me why in the fall of 2021 my kids had to do half-days in person but the Catholic School down the street could do full days in person.

There was a period of time where the response was reasonable, but it went on way too long and I agree with you. I think we got it wrong and caved to pressure from the teachers union.

The same holds true for many individual businesses, who were screwed with consistently in one place, but seemingly left alone in others. Technology developments impacting (or not impacting) business or a particular sector is different than unilateral policy decisions by government.

I think our response overall was ok. We clearly made mistakes but it's just not something that we're going to get perfectly correct no matter what we do. Though, for all of the criticisms we also have to acknowledge that we rebounded incredibly well and have sustained that. The government got plenty wrong, but they also helped quite a bit as well. It could have been worse.
 
You keep talking in absolutes. Some restrictions were necessary, but too many were arbitrary and for political reasons.

Because the arguments are in absolute terms. For example when you said " because most businesses really had no idea on how to project the impact with shut downs, extended time, etc." You're arguing in absolute terms there that it was the impacts of decisions made by others on their business and not the fact that they also didn't really have an idea of how to project the impact of a global pandemic which was the leading cause of death in the US.

Once again...absolutes. There is a difference in thriving and surviving.

Indeed, the point was that you're assuming the cause being the government and not the virus.
I'm not sure why you believe they could have survived during a pandemic at a scale which none of us have ever lived through in our lives. You're just guessing, and want to blame the government because it's easy.
 
Because the arguments are in absolute terms. For example when you said " because most businesses really had no idea on how to project the impact with shut downs, extended time, etc." You're arguing in absolute terms there that it was the impacts of decisions made by others on their business and not the fact that they also didn't really have an idea of how to project the impact of a global pandemic which was the leading cause of death in the US.
No they aren't but you like to twist words. I was talking about PPP which you had to project the impact to your business to qualify. Using the example of the local hardware store once again that was forced to close while Home Depot was allowed to stay open.
Indeed, the point was that you're assuming the cause being the government and not the virus.
I'm not sure why you believe they could have survived during a pandemic at a scale which none of us have ever lived through in our lives. You're just guessing, and want to blame the government because it's easy.
Nope. You've already agreed that the government was wrong to extend the shutdown of schools.
 
During the height of the pandemic Venice had drones flying to ensure people stayed in their homes during curfew hours. Allowed out during brief periods of the day to go shopping for food and other essentials.

Not sure that tactic would have flown in the USA. No pun intended.
 
Mental health issues related to isolation or trapping even before the pandemic. Most likely due to reliance on social media.

Yep, as you pointed out here years ago.

A decade in the making. We weren't ready for the impact of technology and social media and are still trying to understand how harmful it has been / will be.
 
Yep, as you pointed out here years ago.

A decade in the making. We weren't ready for the impact of technology and social media and are still trying to understand how harmful it has been / will be.
Two additional things:
1) Had the opportunity at the end of last year to meet the author again (Jean Twenge) and asked specifically what the data is showing post pandemic. She said there is a lag in collecting, but it was looking like the trends continued/escalated.
2) The employees that we let work from home during the pandemic are having the toughest time readjusting. Use of our EAP programs has increased and we also have many cases of employees with ongoing mental health issues, in most, the younger ones.
 
1) Had the opportunity at the end of last year to meet the author again (Jean Twenge) and asked specifically what the data is showing post pandemic. She said there is a lag in collecting, but it was looking like the trends continued/escalated.

Well, she said this year that the trend continued "at about the same rate" during the pandemic.

 
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Well, she said this year that the trend continued "at about the same rate" during the pandemic.

Twenge has been studying the same criteria for decades in adolescents. Obviously doesn't have the granularity. Her quote was specific to teen girls.

Here is a more detailed analysis from Kaiser that shows the increase before and during the pandemic in a number of mental health areas:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-cov...covid-19-for-mental-health-and-substance-use/

Two things that I think are obvious:
1-Social media and smart phones have had a negative effect on teen mental health.
2-People were feeling isolated and withdrawn before the pandemic (see point 1), and it got worse during the pandemic as isolation and restrictions exacerbated the problem.
 
as isolation and restrictions exacerbated the problem.

That's the part where I'm not sure I agree.

I don't think we really understand a counterfactual of a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands a month (at minimum) and filling up regional hospitals and what that impact would look like. You just see a trend getting worse and make the assumption that the cause must have been the restrictions imposed.
 
That's the part where I'm not sure I agree.

I don't think we really understand a counterfactual of a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands a month (at minimum) and filling up regional hospitals and what that impact would look like. You just see a trend getting worse and make the assumption that the cause must have been the restrictions imposed.
We won’t know the definitive answer for a while.

Common sense would tell you that there would be negative consequences to extended, isolation and restrictions. There is never really any debate about this during the pandemic when decisions were being made.

Once the pandemic spread rapidly, the decisions were made so as not to overwhelm hospital capacity, and IMO that should have been the ongoing priority for restrictions but it wasn’t. It became politicized and there was little consideration as to the long term mental health impacts. Now we are seeing that from data like the Kaiser report. And now the surgeon general has published a warning with the cause and effect.
 
Common sense would tell you that there would be negative consequences to extended, isolation and restrictions.

In your opinion.

I don’t agree it’s common sense, and I don’t agree it’s playing out as you thought it would. The Kaiser report you linked even points out that the most significant indicator of depression early on in the pandemic was household job loss. That was early on during the pandemic, and we’ve recovered a

You tie any negative metric to isolation without consideration for what things look like in a pandemic without any lockdowns. There were some fairly significant differences between how certain states acted during Covid, so impacts from lockdown measures should prove your assumption on a state by state basis. Is that what the data shows? Why not?
 
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Because the arguments are in absolute terms. For example when you said " because most businesses really had no idea on how to project the impact with shut downs, extended time, etc." You're arguing in absolute terms there that it was the impacts of decisions made by others on their business and not the fact that they also didn't really have an idea of how to project the impact of a global pandemic which was the leading cause of death in the US.



Indeed, the point was that you're assuming the cause being the government and not the virus.
I'm not sure why you believe they could have survived during a pandemic at a scale which none of us have ever lived through in our lives. You're just guessing, and want to blame the government because it's easy.
crazy that this is being argued. talk about not seeing the forest through the trees. maybe a global pandemic with #1 cause of death is to blame?? nah hall85 has to try and weasle an argument against it.
 
In your opinion.

I don’t agree it’s common sense, and I don’t agree it’s playing out as you thought it would. The Kaiser report you linked even points out that the most significant indicator of depression early on in the pandemic was household job loss. That was early on during the pandemic, and we’ve recovered a

You tie any negative metric to isolation without consideration for what things look like in a pandemic without any lockdowns. There were some fairly significant differences between how certain states acted during Covid, so impacts from lockdown measures should prove your assumption on a state by state basis. Is that what the data shows? Why not?
You are ignoring the Surgeon General's report that connects isolation to mental health issues.
 
crazy that this is being argued. talk about not seeing the forest through the trees. maybe a global pandemic with #1 cause of death is to blame?? nah hall85 has to try and weasle an argument against it.
#stillobsessedlol
 
You are ignoring the Surgeon General's report that connects isolation to mental health issues.

The report also made it very clear that isolation was an issue long before Covid with 50% of adults feeling lonely. The isolation that was needed during Covid isn't the boogeyman you think it is, just another factor in a problem that has been developing for years.
 
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The report also made it very clear that isolation was an issue long before Covid with 50% of adults feeling lonely. The isolation that was needed during Covid isn't the boogeyman you think it is, just another factor in a problem that has been developing for years.
I read the report. My point was that the Surgeon General has stated the cause and effect of isolation to a rise in mental health issues. I have also stated on numerous occasions that initial lock-downs were necessary to control hospital capacity, but it was the length of those restrictions that was politicized and did not consider the effects of prolonged isolation.
 
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