I absolutely agree with that. In just about every election that I recall a significant number of people say that they are disgusted with both candidates (and both parties). But eventually they decide and vote for one of them.
Tom K
Debate last night?
- Thread starter HALL85
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I absolutely agree with that. In just about every election that I recall a significant number of people say that they are disgusted with both candidates (and both parties). But eventually they decide and vote for one of them.
Tom K
Then how do you explain Trump polling at 39% and having a dead heat with Hillary? Trump is the "disgusted with Washington" poster boy with primarily working American support. His verbal insults would have tanked him in any other year but he keeps getting stronger...
I agree Cain was never the force but his lead lasted about a month and was part of the anti establishment group that kept poking around. My point is that having 30% -40% support for an anti establishment candidate is not new.
Trump is lasting longer than most predicted but as much as people want to think it is because of his persona, it also has to do with the fact that the rest of the GOP field is terrible.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ral_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html#polls
It is not a dead heat. It would be a landslide win for Hillary.
What you are missing is that his insults have tanked him. Democrats and independents don't like him at all which is why Rubio, Cruz and Carson all do better against Clinton in the same polls.
head to head national polls are relatively meaningless at this stage but there are some things you can take away. The fact that Trump is the most popular he has been since he announced he was running but does worse than Rubio and Cruz head to head tells me that Trump will not get the kind of crossover support Hall85 thinks he will get.
Polls at this time for the 2000 election showed Bush up by 12 over Gore. No one really knew Bush at the time and he became exposed as the race went on. I would expect the same type of decrease for Cruz. Rubio is much more likeable and is by far the best choice for the GOP right now. That would be a closer race but Hillary will beat him as well. Again, Hillary has a lot of room for error with swing states. Republicans have none.
You can't ignore the odds either.
https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Even when Romney was ahead in polling, the odds were still saying Obama would win. Same thing now. Hillary is the heavy favorite.
Polls at this time for the 2000 election showed Bush up by 12 over Gore. No one really knew Bush at the time and he became exposed as the race went on. I would expect the same type of decrease for Cruz. Rubio is much more likeable and is by far the best choice for the GOP right now. That would be a closer race but Hillary will beat him as well. Again, Hillary has a lot of room for error with swing states. Republicans have none.
You can't ignore the odds either.
https://m.oddschecker.com/m/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
Even when Romney was ahead in polling, the odds were still saying Obama would win. Same thing now. Hillary is the heavy favorite.
But the election isn't being held today so the odds are just as worthless. And the mistake you keep making is only looking at this from a party line perspective, but that's your choice.
39% in the general election would be considered an epic blowout. The fact that he is at 39% of Republican voters means little other than the fact that we are a celebrity driven society. The fact is that the election will be close regardless of who the candidates are because we as an electorate have become so polarized in recent history. Too many do not listen to what the candidates say and blindly adopt whatever their party line is. Just look at today's social media, the internet or talk radio to see proof of this.
As to people saying they are fed up with all the candidates, this is no different than every other election. Let me ask you when was the last time you felt that we had two quality candidates facing each other as the representatives of the two parties in the general election?
TK
The odds are taking into account what is likely to happen. You're acting like I am making this stuff up.
I'm not saying it's an absolute certainty but what these odds are showing is that unless something unlikely happens, Hillary wins. If you can't agree with that, you are ignoring the data and history.
It's not a party line perspective, it is about who votes in each state and who they are likely to vote for between Hillary and any GOP nominee especially considering that the GOP acknowledged what hurt them in 2012 and hasn't done anything to fix those flaws.
Hillary could win in a romp. I think that is possible. But I also think she could handle her lead like we handled ours last year. I think her collapsing under her unlikability and the weight of bill is very possible.
I have never voted for any pres but the dem candidate, and I have a hard time thinking I will pull her lever. And I shudder at her being the mist visible person on the planet.
I have never voted for any pres but the dem candidate, and I have a hard time thinking I will pull her lever. And I shudder at her being the mist visible person on the planet.
+1. There are two things that strike me as real issues. One, is Hillary's background and the major flaws that would need to hold up to Trump (or anyone) in the campaign. (Email/FBI investigation, taking money from countries that oppress and murder woman, Benghazi, untrustworthiness, etc.) She imploded before against an unknown and she is highly unlikable. Anyone wonder why Bernie has gotten so much support even though he's a nut job? A lot of that is a protest vote within the Dem party of Hillary.
The support Trump has amongst Republicans right now is astonishing because he's NOT speaking to the Republican base or to the Republican platform. In his speeches, he is NOT speaking to Republican voters..he's speaking to American voters. You may call that semantics, but he's actually setting himself up as a third party choice for America and using the two party structure to launch it. He may be a lousy President, but Trump is a smart guy and is feeding off the mass dissatisfaction that both large segments of the Dem and Rep voters have with Washington. What he has done within the Republican voting base, he can certainly do the same (or at least try) within the Democratic base.
Add that to having to run against a candidate in Hillary, who is unlikable, flawed and represents the Washington and special interests that the public has grown to despise.
As 75 said, she may win in a romp, but if you don't think Trump has changed the game and think this is Herman Cain Part 2, you are missing the boat. FWIW, I've voted 60/40 Republican in Presidential elections.
Obviously I don't agree with most of that. I have said my piece on Trump and only time will tell who is correct at this point.
Two things though... Hillary did not implode. She got beat by a better politician. No matter what you think of how has has done since, many viewed Obama as a once in a generation type of leader in 2007. I don't see anyone with close to the same inspiring draw as Obama.
And all of the candidates are unlikable, Hillary actually has an added benefit here in that she has been through this already. Her likeability has actually increased recently compared to everyone else who has decreased. The public is unlikely to find out anything new about her to make them like her less. She handled the Benghazi investigation very well and she will be prepared for anything they throw at her. The only thing that could sink her is the FBI.
Two things though... Hillary did not implode. She got beat by a better politician. No matter what you think of how has has done since, many viewed Obama as a once in a generation type of leader in 2007. I don't see anyone with close to the same inspiring draw as Obama.
And all of the candidates are unlikable, Hillary actually has an added benefit here in that she has been through this already. Her likeability has actually increased recently compared to everyone else who has decreased. The public is unlikely to find out anything new about her to make them like her less. She handled the Benghazi investigation very well and she will be prepared for anything they throw at her. The only thing that could sink her is the FBI.
I wonder if there actually is a guy with that same power as Obama had in 2007 who is doing quite well so far? As for whether she imploded or just got beat by a better pol, can we at least agree that she got schlonged...she had a huge lead, she was anointed the nominee, much like many thought Rudy would win (much like Jeb...), and she lost to a guy who was a nobody when the primaries started. His main accomplishment was a speech at a convention.
I see great similarities to Obama's mojo in 2008 and what Trump has done so far. He has taken the world by storm and the obvious reasons why he is not the guy get ignored. Obama was hardly a seasoned insider pol, but he beat the insider.
I also think that people are not happy looking back that we elected two Bushes as pres, and I really do not think Bill is going to be a vote generator. He will incite the believers to orgasm, but I am not sure he is making the tent larger, and his negatives are very possibly going to grow under more inspection.
Shocking
She got beat by an unknown with virtually no experience. Implode or steamrolled...pick your term.
If her likeability is on the rise as you suggest, than why is the DNC hiding her from public appearances and running the debates when no one will watch?
There is no doubt the Hillary-supporters will dig in their heels and support her (like you) no matter what she does. The question is, how wide and deep is that support given the major personality flaws she has and tie to the system that has everyone disgusted.
An unknown figure rising to prominence on a positive (key word there) message, who could be the first black president is absolutely nothing like a well known celebrity running on a divisive platform. A trump supporter was arrested last week for making bombs in a plan to blow up Muslims in America.
Strategy. She, and the democratic party are playing with a large lead.
Let the republicans have their clown show and maintain a low professional profile.
Republicans acknowledged the infighting in the party in 2012 primaries hurt them in the general. The democrats are playing the long game.
Again, I am not a Hillary supporter. I will not vote for her in the primary, though I doubt it will matter by the time we get to NJ.
From everything I have seen even after Benghazi and the e-mail scandal - Yes. Her support is still wide enough to win a general election.
You originally said "once in a generation type of leader", and that is what I was referring to, and what Trump is seen as by many. His party hates him, the media hates him, and he is kicking ass against a filed called deep and strong by repubs as the race for the nomination began. When has that ever happened? Once in a generation may not be strong enough.
And, his motto of Make America Great Again, or whatever it is, is seen by his followers as the most positive one out there.
But regardless, after 8 years of Obama, with most unimpressed, there was a void, and Trump is filling it by himself.
http://live.huffingtonpost.com/r/hi...400095d?cps=gravity_5020_-9097537011607382147
I am not sure if this says there are similarities or not as I haven't listened, but given the discussion yesterday, I thought it deserved a link.
I am not sure if this says there are similarities or not as I haven't listened, but given the discussion yesterday, I thought it deserved a link.
This is really interesting to observe and your observations are correct. He's marginalized Jeb Bush just about out of the race, who everyone thought was a slam dunk to get the nomination six months ago AND he's blown up the entire Republican party. If he should somehow get the nomination, he could do the same with the Democratic Party. His anti-immigration views are resonating and giving him the support. Where will his support of Democrats come from? Instead of #blacklivesmatter, I can see him tweeting #blackjobsmatter....What if he all of a sudden becomes charming and Presidential? People will say, "wow, he's learned and adapted through this process." The old story about two guys being chased by a bear...I only need to be faster than the other guy. Hillary has far more flaws and baggage than Jeb...
He is appealing to working America (jobs and security) and is essentially creating a third party all by himself for the disenfranchised.
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