Yup, that answer is obvious.
The twisting oneself into a pretzel to justify is comical. We had no leverage; Russia got everything they wanted and we look like weak fools to the rest of the world.
Fair trade?
- Thread starter SHUSA
- Start date
The twisting oneself into a pretzel to justify is comical. We had no leverage; Russia got everything they wanted and we look like weak fools to the rest of the world.
Does it change your mind that Whelan was dishonorably discharged from the Marines for theft? https://www.reuters.com/world/paul-whelan-ex-us-marine-jailed-russia-spying-charges-2022-12-08/
Don't make him out to be a saint. Neither is Griner. But both are American citizens that we all want back home. It is not about who is more worthy to come home.
He's been there just about 5 years already. WTF. This is what happens when your enemies see you as weak.
Exactly media only started talking about Whelan once Griner was convicted. His name will probably now slowly disappear from the media and US government interest now that Griner is home.
Yes but you got an American back for it. Otherwise you lost all leverage for nothing in return.
Not for another 7 years. Griner had 8 years left. And is in no way shape or form is Griner just compensation.
None, except of course for the support we are providing to Ukraine and economic sanctions as Russia just entered into a recession?
My point is that Russia negotiated out of a position of strength. It made us look weak. Neither one of them are saints and neither were worthy of the trade for the Merchant of Death. I could have accepted a two for one trade but this was like trading a skateboard for a Mercedes.
As I said earlier, Putin will need to come out of this all with "wins" and we need to manage what that will look like. Like I said... This is really a propaganda win for them and not that impactful going forward.
If this happens without the context of being in the middle of a war and everything else going on, I think this is a different discussion but we cant just pretend like everything else isn't happening.
But it does no good for him to have a win now that will be meaningless down the road if and when he gives up.
There is nothing factual to support what you’re saying.
I don't think Putin will ever give up.
He is going to come out of this with wins and our goal should be to manage what that looks like, or he ends up going Nuclear.
None of anything here is factual based because none of us here have any understanding of what happened with the negotiations.
I just happen to think the broader context of the war and sanctions are not unimportant here.
Disagree. 1) No, terrorists or terrorist nations are involved here. 2) Yes, I think the US would have made a deal for an innocent college student. The political pressure to return that person would have been incredibly high. Probably higher than Griner, who half the country doesn't like because of her political views.
He’s not going to give up, but he’s going to come out of here with wins? Not sure what your point is. That makes no sense.
All we know is what has happened and what the optics are. Subject to change it’s an awful deal that makes us look incredibly weak.
Not that complicated, in the broader context of the war in Ukraine. Putin will only walk away with something he can claim is a win for Russia or he is going to start using Nuclear weapons if he has nothing to gain.
Now that this war and the economic sanctions are starting to hurt Russia's economy, Putin is going to start to feel some pressure to find room for that negotiation. I hope this is the start.
Right.. you know "optics" and you pretend like that is all of the facts you need to have a "fact based" opinion?
No one here has an opinion based on facts. They are opinions based on optics of a fact pattern with no understanding of the intelligence and negotiations that went into it.
So you now know what he’s thinking?
So why give him something now when we hold the cards?
The optics look terrible…you don’t think so?
And right now it looks like a bad deal with bad optics.
No. It is my opinion. An educated guess that I have maintained here since the war started.
He doesn't seem to be the type to give up.
We don't hold all the cards. We have certain advantages but he could still wreak havoc regionally and globally if he wanted to. We give them a win to start to advance the talks.
I have said on paper it is a bad trade here several times, so yes I agree.
I also think the context is important though and this doesn't happen in a vacuum. Were there no potential for this to be a part of something much broader this would be an easy call. In the middle of a war where we can see our long game strategy of supporting Ukraine from a distance combined with economic sanctions is being effective, we would be naïve not to think that is playing a role here as well.
To what end, we don't know yet.
You know his type?? lol
Give him a convicted arms dealer back so he doesn’t wreak havoc?
Another conspiracy; I’m sorry, your opinion….
I mean, have you studied him at all?
He’s not going to give up. That’s my view based on reading about him over the years.
Similar themes here.
'Losing is not an option': Putin is 'desperate' to avoid defeat in Ukraine as anxiety rises in Moscow
Moscow faces what's likely to be months more fighting, military losses and potential defeat.
No. Not at all.
He’s been in prison for the last 15 years. He isn’t just going to start hitting the streets selling weapons again… how do you think that plays out? “Victor, thank god your back we can finally traffic these weapons after 15 years”…
You have your opinion, that’s fine.
I don’t really have a strong view yet given the complexity’s involved with a war at the moment. We’ll see what happens from here.
Nobody knows what he’s going to do. This is all theoretical.
You know this for a fact? We have no reason to let him go now.Similar themes here.
'Losing is not an option': Putin is 'desperate' to avoid defeat in Ukraine as anxiety rises in Moscow
Moscow faces what's likely to be months more fighting, military losses and potential defeat.www.cnbc.com
No. Not at all.
He’s been in prison for the last 15 years. He isn’t just going to start hitting the streets selling weapons again…
IMO what Victor does now is inconsequential. He played us to free a convicted arms dealer and make us look weak.
And I hope you are right, but we are talking about Putin. He’s former KGB, there’s nothing about what he does that’s fair. He’s been trained to kill, he is not like us nor does he want to be. Then again I’ve read every Vince Flynn novel in the series. He’s our version of Mitch Rapp.
I’m not saying I know what happened here, I just think the context is important and it would be naïve to think that any of us here have a better understanding of Putin and the negotiations here than our intelligence community.
Time will tell. I’m not jumping on a partisan train that this is a good thing, but I’m not going to ignore the context of this happening during a war that Russia is going to want to come to an end soon and the US will be a part of negotiating.
This is a good piece on that topic. The negotiations are going to be complex. This swap may or may not be the start. We’ll see.
The Ukraine War Will End With Negotiations
Now is not the time for talks, but America must lay the groundwork.
Delusional. He was a priority for the Russians to have back. Amazing how people on the left can spin this and call it palatable. I would have preferred he serve the 7 years more. A lot can change in that time.
Plain and simple, Griner was made a priority because she is gay and black. If the optics and actual deal weren't horrible, why not get it done sooner, like before the midterms?
Agree....Bout is 55....he could very well die before he serves his term and at the very least that's seven years less that he is out of circulation.
[
He served 2/3 of his sentence. Not like he got away with a slap on the wrist. Q
I understand the view that someone would not make the deal, but the outrage without seeing why it was made is purely faux outrage.
Is that what you got out of this that because she is gay and black she was traded? Maybe because she was famous. Maybe because she is a woman. How about she was just a pawn and got a ridiculous sentence for having a tiny amount of personal use marijuana? She was not accused of spying by the Russian she was used purely as a pawn. If that was your daughter, would u want that trade made?
He served 2/3 of his sentence. Not like he got away with a slap on the wrist. Q
I understand the view that someone would not make the deal, but the outrage without seeing why it was made is purely faux outrage.
Last edited:
I am not spinning anything other than acknowledging that this happened in the middle of a war which makes this a bit more complex.
Like I said several times in this thread, if there is no change in the dynamic of the Russia / Ukraine conflict in the next several months then I would wholeheartedly agree with the takes from the people on the right here.
She's a professional athlete which does make this have a higher profile.
I understand your tendency to want to believe that it is about her color or sexuality, since the left does focus on those issues, but I'm not buying that a white and heterosexual teammate would still be in Russia under the same circumstances. No matter your opinion on her, she was an American citizen who did not deserve her punishment there. It's a good thing she is home.
On the timing, I think there are just a lot of moving parts here.
"Why now" is a valid question, but I'm just not sure why you would think it is outside the realm of possibility that the answer is possibility became more beneficial to us in the long run. Why not assume Biden would make this same deal months ago and instead wonder what brought Putin to the table now?
I'm not really arguing good or bad at this point.
I think the environment requires time to understand.
for the record, Shu09 is NOT "on the left" and is "spinning" it as palatable because an american got home. not just him
nuff of that partisan bs
I'm not spinning anything. This isn't a political issue. This is about doing the right thing to get one of our own home.
I am "left" on some issues, "right" on others. I don't cling to one party or the other. Wish more would join me.
I think 09 is fairly middling, as am I.
If you read twitter, and the NYT articles and comments, those on the left are doing mental gymnastics to defend this trade:
1. Bout already served "most" of his time/the judge wanted to be more lenient - BS
2. Bout is irrelevant/not useful to Russia - he is, and they wanted him badly
3. Getting "an American home" is a win -- despite the fact that other Americans are there, for a longer period of time, and aren't home
I'm sure I missed other apologetic statements
I agree, her punishment did not fit the crime. Neither did the kid who was tortured and killed in N. Korea, or the kids who were caned in Singapore years ago.
However, she must bear the responsibility for being in Russia with drugs, and as a well-traveled athlete should have known better. Even without all of the facts, there is no faux outrage, it's still a bad deal. I am no fan of hers, and I'm glad she is home, but the price paid to get her back was too high.
