ICYMI: Crime Down in 2024

[Robot_Man]

Everyone seems concerned about rising crime rates on here, so I can't believe nobody shared the great news earlier this month that crime was down big time in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-violent-crime-rates-statistics/index.html

The article mentions some important limitations with the data, but a criminal justice analyst in the article notes that this drop jibes with other data sources they have that confirms the trend that crime is dropping. The completely rational explanation is that the surge in crime over the past few years was a temporary byproduct of the pandemic and immediately after, and not indicative of a longer term trend.

Some are claiming that this is a mirage based on lower overall voluntary crime reporting, but this short thread debunks that argument.

 

[HALL85]

From the article you posted….

“Criminal justice experts say crime trends are complex, but generally blame the cause in the 2020 surge on vast societal disruptions, including the closure of schools, businesses, childcare and community programs.”

So thank you to all the politicians and health “experts” that needlessly locked down our country well beyond what was necessary.

 

[cernjSHU]

Everyone seems concerned about rising crime rates on here, so I can't believe nobody shared the great news earlier this month that crime was down big time in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/10/us/us-violent-crime-rates-statistics/index.html

The article mentions some important limitations with the data, but a criminal justice analyst in the article notes that this drop jibes with other data sources they have that confirms the trend that crime is dropping. The completely rational explanation is that the surge in crime over the past few years was a temporary byproduct of the pandemic and immediately after, and not indicative of a longer term trend.

Some are claiming that this is a mirage based on lower overall voluntary crime reporting, but this short thread debunks that argument.

View embedded media

This is good news. I can tell you locally in NJ that murder rate is down. Now, crime has been on a downward trend for many years. Just locally in Union County, around 2007, we had three years of having over 30 murders in our county. Over the next decade, murders dropped dramatically. It’s rare now to see over 20. This year so far there are only 6.

As someone who has prosecuted murders most of my career, I can’t tell you the reason for this. People may come up with theories. But, it’s only guess work. In 2020, there was a spike in crime and murders. It’s very possible that CoVid played a factor. Or maybe it didn’t. It’s hard to judge rates from one year to another. You need to look at it as a long term trend.

For example, According to FBI data, the number of murders reported in Florida climbed from 984 in 2011 to 1290 in 2020. The 31.1% increase ranks as the 34th
During that same period of time, NJ decreased 13%. If lockdowns are to blame, why did Florida murder rate rise in 2020?

https://www.flhealthcharts.gov/ChartsDashboards/rdPage.aspx?rdReport=NonVitalIndNoGrp.Dataviewer&cid=0305

On the flip side, overall crime rates can be deceiving. In the past few years, marijuana has become legal. Did legalization reduce drug crimes and thus overall crimes. Most likely.