If you live in NJ...

[HALL85]

The city is not a nice place to live these days except for wealthy people. It’s an opinion. That’s it.

I actually think the old money in NYC is behind Mamdani. None of his policies have a chance of being passed (rent control, free busses, government grocery stores), but that all gives the working poor hope and takes attention off attacking the wealthy.

Can you imagine the pilferage from a government run grocery store? lol

 

[Merge]

Trends? Vacancy rates have essentially doubled over the last decade from 9.3% to 16.5% in Manhattan.

Was talking about apartment rentals and the vacancy rates are extraordinarily low.
If you want to talk office space though, NYC is facing the same issue every other major city is facing with company's needing to justify rent with the shift of remote work, though this is from the current NYC comptroller report - "Commercial rent tax receipts were up 3.2%. The office availability rate, which is a leading indicator of vacancies, declined to a more than 4-year low in May 2025, and market rents have advanced to its highest level since mid-2020."

Not quite trending the wrong way...

tax revenue is up but on a per capita basis , it’s way up which is why that list of companies I provided removing operations out of NYC.

and your list excludes company's that move to or start up in NYC. And your biggest example of Goldman isn't because they are leaving it is because they want expansion in markets that are expanding.
The fact remains that NYC is where Companies need a networking footprint and where they will find talented people to employ. If people didn't want to live and work in NYC, it would be a lot easier for every major company to leave. It happens, but it's rare.

The pandemic accelerated declines obviously but these trends have been troubling beforehand.

Only if you're worried about gentrification, which I doubt is your concern here.

 

[hbkmyr]

The city is not a nice place to live these days except for wealthy people. It’s an opinion. That’s it.

That's not how it was presented, and has resulted in a whole bunch of backpedaling here. Seems some cant admit they may have been wrong.

 

[HALL85]

Was talking about apartment rentals and the vacancy rates are extraordinarily low.
If you want to talk office space though, NYC is facing the same issue every other major city is facing with company's needing to justify rent with the shift of remote work, though this is from the current NYC comptroller report - "Commercial rent tax receipts were up 3.2%. The office availability rate, which is a leading indicator of vacancies, declined to a more than 4-year low in May 2025, and market rents have advanced to its highest level since mid-2020."

Office availability is declining because those units are being converted to residential. I just gave you a ten year trend on office vacancy rates that have doubled over that time in Manhattan. You can't paint lipstick on that pig.

Not quite trending the wrong way...



and your list excludes company's that move to or start up in NYC. And your biggest example of Goldman isn't because they are leaving it is because they want expansion in markets that are expanding.
The fact remains that NYC is where Companies need a networking footprint and where they will find talented people to employ. If people didn't want to live and work in NYC, it would be a lot easier for every major company to leave. It happens, but it's rare.

I said earlier that companies will want ta NYC address for various reasons, but if you think companies will base their entire operations or much of it in NYC, that's a pipe dream. The trend has been moving operation positions to lower cost regions or enabling people to work remotely from other parts of the country.

 

[hbkmyr]

Office availability is declining because those units are being converted to residential. I just gave you a ten year trend on office vacancy rates that have doubled over that time in Manhattan. You can't paint lipstick on that pig.

I said earlier that companies will want ta NYC address for various reasons, but if you think companies will base their entire operations or much of it in NYC, that's a pipe dream. The trend has been moving operation positions to lower cost regions or enabling people to work remotely from other parts of the country.

You are breaking records for L's in this thread.

Five years on, New York City office building foot traffic has all but recovered from the “work from home” losses caused by the pandemic — and here’s the proof.

Visits to office buildings in April were a mere 5.5% below April 2019 levels, authoritative Placer.ai platform found, making the Big Apple the nation’s clear leader in back-to-office trends.

Although office visits were also up in most other major US cities compared with the previous month, their average April attendance was 30.7% below 2019’s average, according to Placer.ai.

'Work From Home Is Dying' – NYC Offices Nearly Full As Workers Return In Droves​

Honestly all it would take is one morning driving around NYC inner ring suburbs and seeing the commuters lining up for buses and trains into Port Authority and Penn Station to probably change your line of thinking.

 

[Merge]

You are breaking records for L's in this thread.

Five years on, New York City office building foot traffic has all but recovered from the “work from home” losses caused by the pandemic — and here’s the proof.

Visits to office buildings in April were a mere 5.5% below April 2019 levels, authoritative Placer.ai platform found, making the Big Apple the nation’s clear leader in back-to-office trends.

Although office visits were also up in most other major US cities compared with the previous month, their average April attendance was 30.7% below 2019’s average, according to Placer.ai.

'Work From Home Is Dying' – NYC Offices Nearly Full As Workers Return In Droves​

Honestly all it would take is one morning driving around NYC inner ring suburbs and seeing the commuters lining up for buses and trains into Port Authority and Penn Station to probably change your line of thinking.

Just doesn't care about what is actually happening in NYC.
Makes predictions, the future proves he got it wrong so he moves the goal post.

 

[HALL85]

Just doesn't care about what is actually happening in NYC.
Makes predictions, the future proves he got it wrong so he moves the goal post.

Just keep ignoring facts….time will tell but trends are on my side.

 

[hbkmyr]

Just doesn't care about what is actually happening in NYC.
Makes predictions, the future proves he got it wrong so he moves the goal post.

The poster obviously cant be taken seriously at this point. he's hanging on harder onto this than the whole Willard/Villanova fiasco.

 

[HALL85]

The poster obviously cant be taken seriously at this point. he's hanging on harder onto this than the whole Willard/Villanova fiasco.

lol… you’ve lost the argument so resort to insults. On brand for you.

 

[hbkmyr]

lol… you’ve lost the argument so resort to insults. On brand for you.

Where is the insult? This is the same phrasing you use every time you take the big L.

 

[Merge]

Just keep ignoring facts….time will tell but trends are on my side.

LOL - Lets revisit some of your predictions from 2023.

moving of financial services firms out of the city will also be a trend that will be difficult if not impossible to reverse.

Fact - After losing 6% of FS employees during the pandemic, FS total employment is currently up 9% from the pandemic low
You were wrong.

Major upscale retail are closing their NYC stores, chains retreating and even the mom & pops have to lock up inventory as thieves are just walking out with it and reselling on the street. Not sustainable and to reverse that will take years.

Fact - Luxury retail boomed back into NYC.

The Evolving Luxury Retail Landscape in New York & Los Angeles | US | Cushman & Wakefield

Luxury retail brands continue to heavily invest in their physical store locations across key markets like New York and Los Angeles

www.cushmanwakefield.com

You were wrong.

Once again, if I am making that kind of wealth I will find a way to keep more of it (which is triggering the number leaving).

Wages up - taxes up - net migration out is down.
You were wrong.

Would be so much easier to just say that you were wrong and NYC is more resilient than you expected.

 

[HALL85]

LOL - Lets revisit some of your predictions from 2023.



Fact - After losing 6% of FS employees during the pandemic, FS total employment is currently up 9% from the pandemic low
You were wrong.



Fact - Luxury retail boomed back into NYC.

The Evolving Luxury Retail Landscape in New York & Los Angeles | US | Cushman & Wakefield

Luxury retail brands continue to heavily invest in their physical store locations across key markets like New York and Los Angeles

www.cushmanwakefield.com

You were wrong.



Wages up - taxes up - net migration out is down.
You were wrong.

Would be so much easier to just say that you were wrong and NYC is more resilient than you expected.

You can’t dictate who wins or loses while the game is being played. You don’t get to determine that based on your selective facts. I’ve shared a lot of information the points to and continue decline and troubling trends. You want to revisit this discussion each year (and five/ten years from now)? I’m game and believe many of these downward trends will continue.

 

[Rockaway]

Someone just published a study indicating a family of four needed 287k per annum to live in NYC even if this is high estimate the trend portends only upper middle class will be required at a minimum to live there without welfare on steroids for those below that level more rent control etc. will be needed right up the socialist alley.

 

[Merge]

You want to revisit this discussion each year (and five/ten years from now)? I’m game and believe many of these downward trends will continue.

An annual revisit of you continuing to ignore the positive and overstating the negatives? Sounds great.

As I explained years ago. If NYC is no longer a desirable place to live, then I will worry about NYC. The data that would indicate that is a problem is apartment vacancy rates, real estate and rental prices.

The good thing about establishing metrics beforehand is that the data will prove if your assumptions are right or wrong.
I don't need to shift away to find a metric that will fit my view. My view is shaped by the data.

 

[HALL85]

An annual revisit of you continuing to ignore the positive and overstating the negatives? Sounds great.

As I explained years ago. If NYC is no longer a desirable place to live, then I will worry about NYC. The data that would indicate that is a problem is apartment vacancy rates, real estate and rental prices.

The good thing about establishing metrics beforehand is that the data will prove if your assumptions are right or wrong.
I don't need to shift away to find a metric that will fit my view. My view is shaped by the data.

Using your metrics to measure my opinions and ignoring data I already shared. You are literally the king of shaping data to suit your needs.

 

[hbkmyr]

An annual revisit of you continuing to ignore the positive and overstating the negatives? Sounds great.

As I explained years ago. If NYC is no longer a desirable place to live, then I will worry about NYC. The data that would indicate that is a problem is apartment vacancy rates, real estate and rental prices.

The good thing about establishing metrics beforehand is that the data will prove if your assumptions are right or wrong.
I don't need to shift away to find a metric that will fit my view. My view is shaped by the data.

He ignores real time data and, you know, actual life.

 

[Merge]

Using your metrics to measure my opinions and ignoring data I already shared. You are literally the king of shaping data to suit your needs.

The data is the data. I told you the metric I would be concerned with years ago which hasn't changed.

If you're looking for an indicator for trouble in NYC it's the rental market. If vacancies start increasing and prices start dropping then you'll know that people no longer think it's worth it to live there. There were fears that's what would happen with the hybrid / remote work environments but that's not how it played out after the dust settled and the the demand to live in NYC is still very strong.

^ That was 2 1/2 years ago. No shaping needed when you let the data tell the story.

 

[PiratePride]

He's never said the words you think he said. He's also not an antisemite. This was three years ago.

View embedded media

That hasn't stopped even establishment Democrats from spewing garbage like this, though.

View embedded media

Again, this is stuff Mamdani has never said. I feel like I'm losing my mind.

Oh Swami.....so what words do YOU think...... that I think that he said?

 

[Rockaway]

I thought Robot Man was moving to Gaza to help boys from Hamas.Must have been unfounded rumor.

 

[shu09]

Using your metrics to measure my opinions and ignoring data I already shared. You are literally the king of shaping data to suit your needs.

Why bother? That particular poster used to be reasonable. Now he just spends his time selectively digging up old posts to make himself feel good and regurgitating Democratic talking points. I gave up engaging with him months ago. He can never lose an argument and he'll make sure you know that. After all, he's the smartest guy in the room.

 

[Merge]

Why bother? That particular poster used to be reasonable. Now he just spends his time selectively digging up old posts to make himself feel good and regurgitating Democratic talking points. I gave up engaging with him months ago. He can never lose an argument and he'll make sure you know that. After all, he's the smartest guy in the room.

I just feel like if you’re going to have a conversation about your beliefs here, own it when you get it wrong…and I’ve always posted old comments here to keep the conversations honest, even when you thought I was “reasonable”.

85 talks about NY’s exodus in 2025, and we shouldn’t put it context of what he posted about NYs exodus in 2023? Really?

If I made predictions like those and someone posted them, I’d have no issue with it. I’d just say “yeah I was wrong”… not that hard.

No issue admitting when I’m wrong. A few others there though? Double down until you’re right.

 

[HALL85]

I just feel like if you’re going to have a conversation about your beliefs here, own it when you get it wrong…and I’ve always posted old comments here to keep the conversations honest, even when you thought I was “reasonable”.

85 talks about NY’s exodus in 2025, and we shouldn’t put it context of what he posted about NYs exodus in 2023? Really?

If I made predictions like those and someone posted them, I’d have no issue with it. I’d just say “yeah I was wrong”… not that hard.

No issue admitting when I’m wrong. A few others there though? Double down until you’re right.

You just can’t help yourself. We come to this site to debate issues but for some reason providing your point of view isn’t enough. You have to act as referee as well and declare victory on your terms constantly.

How about we just agreed to disagree?

 

[Merge]

You just can’t help yourself. We come to this site to debate issues but for some reason providing your point of view isn’t enough. You have to act as referee as well and declare victory on your terms constantly.

How about we just agreed to disagree?

lol… We had a debate 2 1/2 years ago on the impacts of NY’s exodus. You made some predictions and you think I’m out of bounds for bringing up those predictions when you start talking about NYs exodus again?

Ok… agree to disagree there.

 

[HALL85]

lol… We had a debate 2 1/2 years ago on the impacts of NY’s exodus. You made some predictions and you think I’m out of bounds for bringing up those predictions when you start talking about NYs exodus again?

Ok… agree to disagree there.

So you set the time limit at 2 1/2 years and have a need to declare some kind of victory…lol. I presented data that supported my original position that the city is in decline. You’re not out of bounds with a counter argument. Did I ever accuse you of that. How about we continue to have the debate?

 

[hbkmyr]

Why bother? That particular poster used to be reasonable. Now he just spends his time selectively digging up old posts to make himself feel good and regurgitating Democratic talking points. I gave up engaging with him months ago. He can never lose an argument and he'll make sure you know that. After all, he's the smartest guy in the room.

You’ve just basically described Hall85

 

[hbkmyr]

lol… We had a debate 2 1/2 years ago on the impacts of NY’s exodus. You made some predictions and you think I’m out of bounds for bringing up those predictions when you start talking about NYs exodus again?

Ok… agree to disagree there.

He runs the same playbook for every argument.

 

[Merge]

So you set the time limit at 2 1/2 years and have a need to declare some kind of victory

I didn't set any limit, nor do I need to declare victory. It just happened that you started talking about it 2 1/2 years later so we revisited. Had you not started talking about the exodus again, I would have ignored the topic. Plenty of other topics here that we have debated and we never revisit even if time proved you were wrong.

How about we continue to have the debate?

I think we have exhausted this one.

If you believe NYC is in a decline. Just say what that means in data. Let the data tell you if you're right or wrong. I told you the metrics I would be concerned with for NYC (which I actually have used as a part of my job for banks who lend in NYC, and have supported my work against peer firms and regulatory agencies)
If people no longer want to live there, then NYC will be in trouble. Until then, they will be fine.
I was honestly surprised how quickly NYC rebounded from the pandemic.

 

[HALL85]

I didn't set any limit, nor do I need to declare victory.

You did….repeatedly by telling me I was wrong even though I posted data supporting my view…once again you can’t help yourself.

It just happened that you started talking about it 2 1/2 years later so we revisited.

Had you not started talking about the exodus again, I would have ignored the topic. Plenty of other topics here that we have debated and we never revisit even if time proved you were wrong.

PiratePride began the discussion on this thread on NYC, which evolved into Mamdami’s policies. I posted an opinion on the effect of his policies and potential impact. And once again you have this need to prove me wrong….lol.

I think we have exhausted this one.

If you believe NYC is in a decline. Just say what that means in data.

I did.

Let the data tell you if you're right or wrong.

I did.

I told you the metrics I would be concerned with for NYC (which I actually have used as a part of my job for banks who lend in NYC, and have supported my work against peer firms and regulatory agencies)

Good for you.

If people no longer want to live there, then NYC will be in trouble. Until then, they will be fine.

Net migration continues to be negative.

I was honestly surprised how quickly NYC rebounded from the pandemic.

 

[Merge]

Net migration continues to be negative.

So you think NYC has been continuously on the decline for 50+ years?
I've tried explaining to you why that metric is meaningless for NYC. You're just unwilling to engage in an honest discussion on the topic. I assumed you would have realized by now that the exodus from NYC ended years ago and what we have seen since is historically normal net migration patterns for NYC, and last year was lower than normal?

I'll put it in context you might understand. Assume your last 25 golf rounds were shooting 80 consistently for the first 20. Your last 5 were 90, 85, 80, 78 and 76. Are you now arguing your trend is negative because you're over par? Or was there a blip that has since been corrected?

 

[The_Hall]

To prevent poor people from being priced out so they can stay in their home? Not even something I’d necessarily agree with, but the idea behind it isn’t that hard to grasp.



I’d be happy to revisit our old posts here where you were predicting doom for NYC during the pandemic and I was saying those fears were overblown and their tax revenue from income and tourism would rebound quickly. Turns out people still want to visit and live there same as they did before the pandemic.



As it has for decades because it is the most densely populated city in the country. They wouldn’t be able to sustain net inflows each year, but the outflows of covid are over and outflows were the lowest they have been in a decade last year. Outflows were higher when Guiliani was Mayor than they are today.

Those predicting the demise of NYC, and you were one of them, were wrong.

these guys continue to forget merge has all the receipts. so many countless examples of egg on the face. but now there's an excuse. just proving a point! all that nonsense don't pay attention it was just to prove a point... which was completely not proven.