Mueller
- Thread starter HALL85
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Stevie I thought you were reasonable. Lots of Google help going the other way and also lots of Obama voters went with Trump in the middle of the country where Hillary didn't make many stops and Trump outworked her. Hillary lost the election that any other Dem probably would have won, the Russians did not win it. She ran a lazy campaign and played to her base on either coast - can't forget about that stuff. You are sounding more and more like CNN common you are better than that. Too early to tell. No real Dem candidate has emerged and polls were largely ineffective last go round so no telling how effective they are right now or will be once a Dem candidate emerges.Yet those polls were largely accurate in 08 and 12. What changed, comrade?
The 16 election was an odd one. We had two very unpopular candidates (rightfully so). We don’t know to which extent Comey’s letter to Congress impacted voting/polling because of the timing. There was a strange phenomenon of the reluctant Trump voter - were they lying in polls? And lastly, we don’t know, and likely never will, how Russian interference impacted the election (swaying voters not changing votes).
Polling in the general was actually fairly accurate. Average ended up with Hillary beating Trump by about 3%, and she beat him by around 2% which would be well within the margin of error.
Way too early for 2020 at this point as so much can change.
What were the polls predicting on electoral votes and how did that turn out? You know, the way the election is decided…
If you have ever studded statistics, it really wasn't that bad compared to previous election cycles.
There was a slightly higher than average polling error in 2016 vs other election years but it's not like the data was bad.
if I tell you there is a 70% chance of rain but it doesn't rain, does that mean the data was bad?
It's not an exact science but there is still good data to pull information from and lessons to be learned after each cycle.
If you recall, and you reminded us pretty much every week, Trump, according to the polls had virtually no path to an electoral victory. He also had that famous “ceiling” of yours. It is certainly not a stretch to say America was shocked when they woke up on Wednesday morning.
Yes, I was wrong. A lot of circumstances went right for Trump to beat expectations based on historical probability but it was always possible that he would. Just like if I hear there is a 70% chance of rain, I am probably bringing an umbrella with me and will be surprised if I don't need it but I probably shouldn't be and that is my point.
Where did I even remotely suggest the Russians won it? You're building a straw man here. I was talking about the discrepancy in polling vs results that you noted. As for Russia specifically, we don't know what impact they did or did not have on the election results via swaying voters and likely never will. Experts can't say one way or the other. That is not only reasonable, it's the most accurate answer to the question. I echoed that.
If you have something of substance to add regarding the impact of Russian interference, please add it. I'll stick with the experts and say we don't know and likely never will.
Me thinks the following did her in:
1-A dumb strategy (“Not Trump”)
2-Disregarding campaigning in swing states
3-Insulting a large segment of the population in those swing states (“Bucket of Deplorables”)
4-No compelling vision
5-Morally corrupt and less likable than even Trump
That's not what I asked you. Although I don't disagree with parts of your response, try again.
The only thing we really know about the Russian tampering are the placement of some Facebook ads. Of course we don’t exactly know what if any impact, but it strikes me as pretty immaterial.
You're missing a fairly significant event.
And while we won't ever be able to quantify the interference, Trump loses if we change 0.06% of votes. Entirely possible the immaterial impact to 130,000,000 voters had a material impact to the winner.
Oh boy... Your first sentence is patently false. That's not even close to an accurate statement. That information is readily available and widely covered. Wow in a bad way on that. Your second sentence is amusingly contradictory - yes we don't know what impact Russian meddling in our election had, but I have an opinion that it didn't matter. For someone who has accused others here of lack of objectivity and partisanship, this response is not a good look. Good lord...
Fine...keep running with Rusher than. I have an opinion; you don’t like it. I’m ok with that.
You more than implied it by suggesting the polls were previously correct and then added the words “what changed comrade?” Reread your own words and tell me that is not implied. If it wasn’t you would not have said what changed comrade which a common Russian phrase. That is where I got that from. I totally agree that there is no way to measure the impact but agree it could have had an impact. Bigger impact IMO is Hillary’s campaign by not working hard enough in their campaign termed flyover states. Maybe if they flew in instead of over she’s President today.
Lol. Now it's a conspiracy theory to say that Russian influence may have impacted the result of the election? I'm not even saying it did, just open to the possibility.
The thing you missed was the hacking and dissemination of Democrat email. It wasnt just Facebook ads.
It was a Russia joke... That was sarcasm. And I very clearly stated I’m of the opinion we don’t know and likely never will. Can’t say one way or the other. If I thought it did, I’d say so. I also mentioned other factors. Hillary’s crap campaign definitely impacted the election. No question about it. Her team has admitted as much.
I obviously took it the wrong way because of the combined sentence structure. Was worrying you were watching too much Rachel Maddow - not to mention the toll it would take on your eyes.
No worries at all. I don’t watch cable news. It’s generally trash. PBS news hour for me when I do watch. I mostly read news.
The emails that called for a "Catholic Spring"? Catholics still went for Hillary, by a small margin.
That was part as well as many other issues that came up in the email, as well as the timing of their release.
It's impossible to quantify the impact, but I mean the email also caused someone to raid a pizza place with a shotgun. Could 0.06% of voters have changed their opinion of Hillary enough to just stay home?
Sure but at the same time there were many things that occurred that might have kept 0.1% of Trump voters home, despite the fact he won. I always love when the losing team says if only we made that one shot. I’m sure the winning team goes back, looks at the tape and says we need to make some of their missed shots too. Both candidates have their if only moments. Heck maybe if the Billy Bush tape didn’t come out Trump wins the popular vote too.
Of course. There are lots of events that can impact elections.
Russia employed hundreds of people and spent millions every month to have an impact. I'm just saying it's possible that Russian interference played a part in determining the winner.
It's not sour grapes or anything like that. I didn't like Hillary, and I think we would have been worse off in a few ways had she won. I just think we should acknowledge that it occurred, it was bad and we should be protecting ourselves against future foreign meddling.
I’m sure Russia has been trying to influence our elections since the Cold War. Shame on all the administrations who didn’t stop it. Whether that’s Reagan, both Bush, Clinton, Obama, etc shame on all of them. And shame on Trump if he lets it happen again. But the shock of the Russians trying to influence our elections is mind boggling to me. This was not a sneak attack. We’ve known they have been doing and wanting to do this for decades. If we let them it’s our own fault.
Who says anyone was surprised they were trying? All I was saying is that it is reasonably feasible that they may have had an impact on the outcome.
I think some looking back may be in order though. We knew they were doing it. When Obama commented and tried to get a bipartisan statement out, he was rebuffed by Republicans saying it was a partisan move by Obama. When he put sanctions on Russia due to the interference, the Trump campaign told them they would go away after the election.
Meanwhile Trump at every turn denied Russia was doing anything even after receiving intelligence briefings that they were. He has taken the word of Putin over our intelligence community while in office. Even today, republicans are blocking any attempt at protecting our elections going forward.
You mean the two grandstanding bills the Dems put out right after Mueller's testimony? And why didn't Obama go public with the meddling when he knew it was happening...I know, I know, he was worried about the impact it might have on HRC winning the election instead of shining the light. Well how did that work out?
Meddling attempts have been going on for decades (as we have done our share as well) and both sides condone and support it.
No. He has made it clear he isn't put up anything that addresses election security and that includes bipartisan bills which were introduced months ago.
Because of the optics and McConnell refusing to sign a bipartisan statement.
Sure, but we also need to acknowledge that social media and the spread of information has made the landscape entirely different. It's time to find way to address it, otherwise we are inviting chaos from both sides and many countries seeking influence.
Yeah because everything is black and white.
Either you just like to argue, or you don't really think things through.
Sometimes there are no good options and you are left with picking the one you feel would be better.
Maybe you think he was wrong, and that is fine but there was an attempt to make this nonpartisan which was rebuffed by republicans. He decided against making it a partisan issue which could have had some negative implications going forward.
Nah, I have no problem admitting I was wrong. Just doesn't happen very much on here.
That's why we are still talking about that time when I was wrong 3 years ago.
M
Don’t forget Trump’s “ceiling”...lolNah, I have no problem admitting I was wrong. Just doesn't happen very much on here.
That's why we are still talking about that time when I was wrong 3 years ago.
Can't tell if you are joking or not? but yes, that is what I was talking about when I said I was wrong.
