North Carolina

[Robot_Man]

NC's lieutenant governor and Republican nominee for governor was already under a lot of fire and losing to his opponent, but this is quite something.



Can't imagine this will make it easier for Trump to win North Carolina.

 

[Merge]

Yeesh... They need to get him off the ballot.

 

[Robot_Man]

Yeesh... They need to get him off the ballot.

Funny you should mention that - the deadline is today.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Harris going to win NC big time once the college students start playing Dana Bash's Kamala Harris drinking game.

 

[Robot_Man]

There's more:



"An adviser to Robinson, granted anonymity to speak freely, confirmed to POLITICO that the email address in question belongs to Robinson. A spokesperson for Robinson said he had not made an account on Ashley Madison." ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[SHUSA]

whats the thought process that this will effect trump? i dont see it.

 

[Merge]

whats the thought process that this will effect trump? i dont see it.

Just gives the Harris campaign ammunition against the "Trump / Robinson" ticket.
Trump will do everything he can to distance himself from Robinson and Harris will do everything she can to connect them.

Trump won NC by about 160k in 2016, and 75k in 2020.
If voters are passionate for Trump, they are going to show up anyway. If they are lukewarm on Trump and wanted a republican governor, maybe they still show up and hold their nose for Trump. If they're lukewarm on Trump and now turned off by Robinson, maybe they don't show up.

Polling shows the state as very close right now so it might come down to which party can get the most turnout.

 

[HALL85]

As it stands today, Trump is going to lose the election, and probably by a wide margin of electoral votes.

Living in a very purple county here in PA, that usually dictates the winner. It’s Harris and not even close.

Still a month and a half for a surprise, but probably not likely at this point.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Just gives the Harris campaign ammunition against the "Trump / Robinson" ticket.
Trump will do everything he can to distance himself from Robinson and Harris will do everything she can to connect them.

Trump won NC by about 160k in 2016, and 75k in 2020.
If voters are passionate for Trump, they are going to show up anyway. If they are lukewarm on Trump and wanted a republican governor, maybe they still show up and hold their nose for Trump. If they're lukewarm on Trump and now turned off by Robinson, maybe they don't show up.

Polling shows the state as very close right now so it might come down to which party can get the most turnout.

Like robinson not attending saturday rally

 

[SPK145]

As it stands today, Trump is going to lose the election, and probably by a wide margin of electoral votes.

I disagree with this greatly, you are too influenced by the bias media. As of right now, I see Trump winning 281-257 in electoral votes.

PA is interesting, Trump has beaten the polls by 6-7 points in both 2016 and 2020. If that holds...........

 

[HALL85]

I disagree with this greatly, you are too influenced by the bias media. As of right now, I see Trump winning 281-257 in electoral votes.

PA is interesting, Trump has beaten the polls by 6-7 points in both 2016 and 2020. If that holds...........

Steve, I don’t listen to the media at all on this. It’s just observations from living in this county and how it differs from 2016 and 2020. Not scientific at all but back in 2016, it felt (and I posted) that Trump was going to win here, despite what the media was saying.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

PA is interesting, Trump has beaten the polls by 6-7 points in both 2016 and 2020. If that holds...........

Silent Trump vote is real. Maybe it's because of living in NJ, I know of a few people who lost friends because they support Trump. I don't know of any stories where people lose friends for supporting a democrat. So plenty of people have just decided to say nothing to avoid the ridiculousness of losing friends over politicians who aren't going to show up if you're in real need of help.

 

[SHUSA]

Just gives the Harris campaign ammunition against the "Trump / Robinson" ticket.
Trump will do everything he can to distance himself from Robinson and Harris will do everything she can to connect them.

Trump won NC by about 160k in 2016, and 75k in 2020.
If voters are passionate for Trump, they are going to show up anyway. If they are lukewarm on Trump and wanted a republican governor, maybe they still show up and hold their nose for Trump. If they're lukewarm on Trump and now turned off by Robinson, maybe they don't show up.

Polling shows the state as very close right now so it might come down to which party can get the most turnout.

who sees it as a Trump/Robinson ticket. you can vote for trump and against robinson. idk i just dont see it

 

[Merge]

I disagree with this greatly, you are too influenced by the bias media. As of right now, I see Trump winning 281-257 in electoral votes.

PA is interesting, Trump has beaten the polls by 6-7 points in both 2016 and 2020. If that holds...........

The polls in PA were wrong outside of the last week or so, but while the earlier ones were low on Trump, they had Biden correct.
Harris is polling right around where Biden was at this time in 2020. Biggest difference now is that there are no 3rd parties and a lot less undecided voters now. I wouldn't bet on a 6pt swing towards Trump from here but 1-2 is definitely possible and enough to win the state for him.

Looks like you have PA, AZ and GA flipping to Trump this cycle? Not unreasonable at all if the election were today.

 

[Merge]

who sees it as a Trump/Robinson ticket. you can vote for trump and against robinson. idk i just dont see it

Very few - but Dems will be pushing that hard.
Half the voters will be below average intelligence.... and some of them will be persuaded by political messaging. Harris campaign would need to convince around 2% of people who voted for Trump last time to sit this one out to win. Not saying that's easy but a scandal ridden candidate for Governor on the R side doesn't hurt.

 

[SHUSA]

Very few - but Dems will be pushing that hard.
Half the voters will be below average intelligence.... and some of them will be persuaded by political messaging. Harris campaign would need to convince around 2% of people who voted for Trump last time to sit this one out to win. Not saying that's easy but a scandal ridden candidate for Governor on the R side doesn't hurt.

seems like all the more reason to show up to vote robinson out.

 

[Merge]

seems like all the more reason to show up to vote robinson out.

Fair point. Could go that way as well.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[shu09]

I disagree with this greatly, you are too influenced by the bias media. As of right now, I see Trump winning 281-257 in electoral votes.

PA is interesting, Trump has beaten the polls by 6-7 points in both 2016 and 2020. If that holds...........

I have a difficult time coming around to the view that Trump wins any of PA, MI, or WI. Even if he runs the table in NV, AZ, GA, and NC, he must win one of those three (unless there's an upset like him winning VA or NH). He's slipping in NC and GA seems to be a dead heat.

 

[SPK145]

Looks like you have PA, AZ and GA flipping to Trump this cycle? Not unreasonable at all if the election were today.

Yes.

 

[Robot_Man]

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

I have a difficult time coming around to the view that Trump wins any of PA, MI, or WI. Even if he runs the table in NV, AZ, GA, and NC, he must win one of those three (unless there's an upset like him winning VA or NH). He's slipping in NC and GA seems to be a dead heat.

I think the more she talks the more they state of PA will not trust her on fracking. She was terrible with Oprah. She looked like a deer in headlights when asked how she was going to lower prices.

 

[HALL85]

Speaking of Presidents, we saw “Reagan” last night. Quaid did a nice job with the part. Had forgotten that the assassination attempt happened shortly after he was first elected.

Really sad to see how the discourse and quality of speeches have declined so much in 50 years.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[Section112]

I don't watch the state polls numbers as closely as many. Trump lost the last election because many independent and women voters that supported him the first time, decided they didn't want to vote for him again. A few of those voters may come back because of the economy/border issues, but he's crapped the bed on every opportunity to get some of those folks back. Hillary lost the first election to Trump because so many people hated Hillary, not necessarily because Trump was so special. He certainly developed a loyal following but many people hated her and he gained those votes. Now I believe many more hate Trump. He's not getting many of the women or independents back and lots of folks hate him and more everyday after his scandals and the crazy stuff he continues to say. JD Vance isn't going to move the needle either but he's not helping Trump at all. The press is relentless too and Trump keeps giving them silly stuff to serve on a silver platter. I see Trump losing with a few of those states flipping to the Dems. Not a scientific approach, but its what I am feeling today.

 

[Merge]

I don't watch the state polls numbers as closely as many. Trump lost the last election because many independent and women voters that supported him the first time, decided they didn't want to vote for him again. A few of those voters may come back because of the economy/border issues, but he's crapped the bed on every opportunity to get some of those folks back. Hillary lost the first election to Trump because so many people hated Hillary, not necessarily because Trump was so special. He certainly developed a loyal following but many people hated her and he gained those votes. Now I believe many more hate Trump. He's not getting many of the women or independents back and lots of folks hate him and more everyday after his scandals and the crazy stuff he continues to say. JD Vance isn't going to move the needle either but he's not helping Trump at all. The press is relentless too and Trump keeps giving them silly stuff to serve on a silver platter. I see Trump losing with a few of those states flipping to the Dems. Not a scientific approach, but its what I am feeling today.

Harris is a worse candidate than Hillary, but doesn’t have the same level of hatred against her.

If the election were held today, I think Harris wins by a nose keeping PA but loses Georgia and Arizona.

Things could still swing a bit but seems like there are very few undecided voters at this point.

 

[HALL85]

I agree most people are locked in on their choice. It will take a pretty big October surprise to have a meaningful shift. Escalation in Middle East and how the administration responds? Imagine if one or both were at at Diddy Freak out party? lol

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

I agree most people are locked in on their choice. It will take a pretty big October surprise to have a meaningful shift. Escalation in Middle East and how the administration responds? Imagine if one or both were at at Diddy Freak out party? lol

Will there be another debate? Will he stay on script? Will she do more interviews after striking out with her softball Oprah interview?

 

[HALL85]

Will there be another debate? Will he stay on script? Will she do more interviews after striking out with her softball Oprah interview?

Trump had an awful debate and a horrendous August/September and the numbers only moved slightly. Another debate or Harris interview will change very little probably nothing. We all saw Biden is a walking corpse; we all see Trump listens to no one but himself; we all see Harris is an empty suit puppet. Biden would still be the candidate if he didn’t self destruct on camera…that’s what it takes these days.

 

[Merge]

Trump had an awful debate and a horrendous August/September and the numbers only moved slightly. Another debate or Harris interview will change very little probably nothing. We all saw Biden is a walking corpse; we all see Trump listens to no one but himself; we all see Harris is an empty suit puppet. Biden would still be the candidate if he didn’t self destruct on camera…that’s what it takes these days.

Agreed. I don't think we'll see a large swing from here unless something really crazy happens.
I think people know what they are getting with Trump or Harris at this point.

The VP debate probably won't have much of an impact. I think liberals likely haven't seen much from JD other than the clips were he performs poorly. I think he is a little more polished for a debate setting and should overperform so maybe a little more upside for Trump/Vance but probably also won't move the needle much overall either.

 

[silkcitypirate]

I see Harris winning the popular vote and the election a toss up with Harris squeaking it out. I sure would not bet on the outcome either way .

 

[HALL85]

Agreed. I don't think we'll see a large swing from here unless something really crazy happens.
I think people know what they are getting with Trump or Harris at this point.

Like I said earlier, I agree that I don’t anticipate any swing. Do we really know what we are getting from either Trump or Harris? That’s what scares me.

The VP debate probably won't have much of an impact. I think liberals likely haven't seen much from JD other than the clips were he performs poorly. I think he is a little more polished for a debate setting and should overperform so maybe a little more upside for Trump/Vance but probably also won't move the needle much overall either.

Nobody cares about the VP. Either one of them can fall flat on their face and it’s not going to impact the polls.

 

[Merge]

Do we really know what we are getting from either Trump or Harris?

I just mean people have their own expectations of what each term would look like which is why there are so few undecided voters.

In my opinion though...

With Trump we will get the same person that was in office the first time but less constrained by those around him. He will be more vindictive and he will seek to implement loyalists throughout the government. My view of Harris is that she won't be much different than Biden but I don't think she pushes anything too bold during her term since she would be thinking of her reelection chances.

I think both will extend the current tax laws with an increased child tax credit, and both will pass in immigration bill similar to the one Lankford authored.

 

[HALL85]

I just mean people have their own expectations of what each term would look like which is why there are so few undecided voters.

In my opinion though...

With Trump we will get the same person that was in office the first time but less constrained by those around him. He will be more vindictive and he will seek to implement loyalists throughout the government. My view of Harris is that she won't be much different than Biden but I don't think she pushes anything too bold during her term since she would be thinking of her reelection chances.

I think both will extend the current tax laws with an increased child tax credit, and both will pass in immigration bill similar to the one Lankford authored.

I disagree. Only Trump knows what he’s going to do. It’ll be like another reality show when you really never know the plot. I see the vindictive piece as a talking point the media has made up. He could’ve gone after Hillary in the first term and never did. Where was he vindictive in his first term? You can make the case that Democrats went after him nonstop and haven’t let up.

I have no idea what Harris will project as a president. She has zero leadership skills, and in capable of projecting any position. People like that, don’t make decisions and live in a world of paralysis.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[Rockaway]

Black Nazi who is a republican seems counterintuitive given all the Dems anti Israel hate.

 

[Merge]

I see the vindictive piece as a talking point the media has made up.

I'm just listening to him talk and seeing what he posts online.

He could’ve gone after Hillary in the first term and never did. Where was he vindictive in his first term?

This is actually a good example of what I was referring to about being less constrained. He wanted to prosecute Comey and Clinton but he was blocked by Don McGahn from going through with it. Next term, there will be no Don McGahn. Only yes men.

You can make the case that Democrats went after him nonstop and haven’t let up.

Sure you can make that case, but it might have something to do with the fact that he doesn't care about laws and kept breaking them.

I have no idea what Harris will project as a president. She has zero leadership skills, and in capable of projecting any position. People like that, don’t make decisions and live in a world of paralysis.

I don't disagree. That's why I don't see her doing much. She's not going to stick her neck out on anything.
Immigration has reached a boiling point where the public is on the side of getting something done, and the tax cuts expiring seems unlikely. Outside of those two issues I don't see major policy coming.

 

[HALL85]

I'm just listening to him talk and seeing what he posts online.



This is actually a good example of what I was referring to about being less constrained. He wanted to prosecute Comey and Clinton but he was blocked by Don McGahn from going through with it. Next term, there will be no Don McGahn. Only yes men.



Sure you can make that case, but it might have something to do with the fact that he doesn't care about laws and kept breaking them.



I don't disagree. That's why I don't see her doing much. She's not going to stick her neck out on anything.
Immigration has reached a boiling point where the public is on the side of getting something done, and the tax cuts expiring seems unlikely. Outside of those two issues I don't see major policy coming.

He doesn’t listen to anyone. He always talks about revenge but he never did.

 

[Merge]

He doesn’t listen to anyone. He always talks about revenge but he never did.

"Doesn't listen" and being blocked are different though. Many accounts of the "guardrails" working while Trump was in office to prevent him from doing whatever he wanted. Trump didn't listen to the people telling him that the plan to overturn the election was ridiculous. Pence was the guardrail preventing from actually trying it. The guardrails are not going to be there under a 2nd term.