Play Ball! In May?

[NYShoreGuy]

Bob Nightengale just put out an editorial on this. I have it from my sportsmanias app i subscribe to...one line from it...

Sure, everyone would love to get paid, but no one in their right mind is that heartless.

Well bob you havent broken bread with shu09

 

[hallgrad80]

One of the issues that has not been addressed is whether the number of games that MLB will try to squeeze in and play , including doubleheader’s will have a negative effect physically on the players and make them more susceptible to contracting the virus .

 

[deheremike]

BuT It WiLl bE hOt OuT sO tHe ViRuS wILl bE DeAd.

One of the issues that has not been addressed is whether the number of games that MLB will try to squeeze in and play , including doubleheader’s will have a negative effect physically on the players and make them more susceptible to contracting the virus .

 

[Halldan1]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/japanese-baseball-delayed-again-because-of-coronavirus/

Japanese baseball delayed again in bad sign for all sports
By Joel Sherman

April 7, 2020 | 4:52pm


Japanese baseball delayed again because of coronavirus

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Nippon Professional Baseball announced that the start of the Japanese baseball season, which was rescheduled for April 24, now will not happen until late May at the earliest.

But it could be a lot longer than that after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a national state of emergency Tuesday. A prominent baseball agent in correspondence with a team official in Japan was informed by that executive that with that national emergency declared, NPB does not expect to start before late June. An MLB club official confirmed that is the news they were hearing as well.

Atsushi Ihara, an NPB executive, told reporters in Japan of the delay of at least one month.

The Japanese league had initially delayed the start of its season to April 24 due to the coronavirus pandemic and was proceeding in that fashion even after three Hanshin Tiger players tested positive for coronavirus.

However, Abe declared a state of emergency Tuesday that is expected to last at least one month and cover Tokyo and six other prefectures that account for most of the Japanese teams, such as Tokyo Giants and Yakult Swallows.

That Japan had restarted spring training, albeit without fans in the crowd, after its initial wave with the virus was seen as encouraging in some MLB quarters. But the virus being caught by the Tiger players and this national emergency triggered as the virus rebounded more substantially in Japan is a symbol of how difficult it will be to make firm plans by any sports league.

 

[The Crows Nest]

It's 2% of the people who get it (and that's an overestimate on my end), not 2% of the population. Not everyone would get it because it will be snuffed out for the most part by the policies that are in place this month. Containment will be much easier after we get through this phase.

We can't let this virus hold us hostage for much longer or we won't have much of a country. It'll be absolutely ruined economically, which will cause a heck of a lot more deaths than the virus will.

Thank you doctor. I’m sorry, what were your Credentials again? I must have missed that. Because as I recall, you totally missed the” playing without fans “ and “will cancel the NCAA tournament” with your “that will never happen”

thankfully.... you were wrong. As you are now

 

[hallstorm]

I see nothing wrong with MLB being active in putting preparations together to get baseball ready to play. I think it’s extremely hard to make any estimations right now as to an actual start date. We are at the nadir if this pandemic and certain things have to be put in place for it to move forward.

I don’t think anyone can make a guess as to how things will be in 1, 2 or 3 weeks from right now. I like the idea of having options and creating possibilities and then getting the best advice from the top medical doctors each week that passes.

I certainly think it’s possible if proper steps are achieved and precautions are in place.

 

[shu09]

Thank you doctor. I’m sorry, what were your Credentials again? I must have missed that. Because as I recall, you totally missed the” playing without fans “ and “will cancel the NCAA tournament” with your “that will never happen”

thankfully.... you were wrong. As you are now

Yes, I underestimated the strength of the lawyers, hysterics and sensationalists who drove the bus in canceling those events and eventually all sports because of a virus that over 99.5% of the American people don't even have.

 

[Soyaqui]

MLB is not playing, unless they are wearing PPE. I am having doubts about football too.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Yes, I underestimated the strength of the lawyers, hysterics and sensationalists who drove the bus in canceling those events and eventually all sports because of a virus that over 99.5% of the American people don't even have.

Is this cat out of this world or what...it is not about who has it now, it is about the chance of so many unfortunately contracting it...how the hell was an ncaa tournament gonna play after the gobert news? Its about being able to control an enviroment there are so many variables and nexus of interaction...i mean look how many refs across multiple conf tourney events ended up testing positive within 10 days of cancellation...you are probably the same person who would travel to be on site at work in a driving blizzard despite the company sending out a mass message to not take and unreasonable risk to get to work

 

[shu09]

You bet!

 

[NYShoreGuy]

You bet!

Gonna drum up business for you, contact the oklahoma state football sid and tell that person you want to be the advocate for mike gundy
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/04/mike-gundy-coronavirus

I await the jim rome take segment on this tomorrow

 

[shu09]

Gonna drum up business for you, contact the oklahoma state football sid and tell that person you want to be the advocate for mike gundy
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/04/mike-gundy-coronavirus

I await the jim rome take segment on this tomorrow

I hate college football

 

[Merge]

That is fundamentally un-American. You can't do what China did here, we are not an authoritarian nation (thankfully).

Imagine if we had a real crisis in this country with a disease, like smallpox or ebola, where a national lockdown WOULD be necessary? Whoa boy.

What's particularly frustrating about this post is that you list Ebola.

Ebola is far more deadly, but not as contagious as Covid19.
Assume the r0 of Ebola is 1.5 (reasonable estimate). Each person who gets it will give it to 1.5 people

and Covid19 is 2 (which is very conservative) each person gives it to 2 people

After there are 12 transmissions:
86 people will have Ebola and half will die. 43
2048 people will have Covid and 2% will die. 41

Extend that out to the 20th transmission -
2,217 people will have Ebola and half will die - 1108
524,288 people will have Covid and 2% will die - 10,486


Why is a national lockdown necessary for Ebola but not Covid?

 

[shu09]

What's particularly frustrating about this post is that you list Ebola.

Ebola is far more deadly, but not as contagious as Covid19.
Assume the r0 of Ebola is 1.5 (reasonable estimate). Each person who gets it will give it to 1.5 people

and Covid19 is 2 (which is very conservative) each person gives it to 2 people

After there are 12 transmissions:
86 people will have Ebola and half will die. 43
2048 people will have Covid and 2% will die. 41

Extend that out to the 20th transmission -
2,217 people will have Ebola and half will die - 1108
524,288 people will have Covid and 2% will die - 10,486


Why is a national lockdown necessary for Ebola but not Covid?

Nice of you to cherry pick one factor in an epidemic when there are many that can inform policy making. The American people would demand a lockdown for Ebola, you're kidding yourself if you don't believe that. Remember in 2014 when we brought a couple Ebola patients to the US for treatment? People were freaking out! It was something that America was right to do, but a lot of citizens had strong objections to it. And that was only a few people.

Any thoughts on smallpox (in a biological attack, let's say), or are you just going to conveniently leave that one alone because it doesn't fit your narrative?

 

[Merge]

Nice of you to cherry pick one factor in an epidemic when there are many that can inform policy making. The American people would demand a lockdown for Ebola, you're kidding yourself if you don't believe that. Remember in 2014 when we brought a couple Ebola patients to the US for treatment? People were freaking out! It was something that America was right to do, but a lot of citizens had strong objections to it. And that was only a few people.

Any thoughts on smallpox (in a biological attack, let's say), or are you just going to conveniently leave that one alone because it doesn't fit your narrative?

I left that out because we agree there. I’d also agree on a bad Ebola outbreak.

Our disagreement has been about Covid.

What confuses me is how you quantify Ebola being worse than Covid. It doesn’t really make much sense. This Covid outbreak will kill far more than an Ebola outbreak here (for several reasons)

So my question to you (which still stands) is why in your opinion, we should shut down the country for Ebola but not for Covid?

 

[shu09]

I left that out because we agree there. I’d also agree on a bad Ebola outbreak.

Our disagreement has been about Covid.

What confuses me is how you quantify Ebola being worse than Covid. It doesn’t really make much sense. This Covid outbreak will kill far more than an Ebola outbreak here (for several reasons)

So my question to you (which still stands) is why in your opinion, we should shut down the country for Ebola but not for Covid?

Pretty simple. Ebola kills 50% of the people who get it. I hope to god we never have that problem in this country. It would be an unprecedented calamity.

 

[Merge]

Pretty simple. Ebola kills 50% of the people who get it. I hope to god we never have that problem in this country. It would be an unprecedented calamity.

Yeah... I don’t get it.
Far more people will die by Covid than would with an Ebola outbreak. (Which would also be very bad)

Im not sure you appreciate the math here.

 

[shu09]

Yeah... I don’t get it.
Far more people will die by Covid than would with an Ebola outbreak. (Which would also be very bad)

Im not sure you appreciate the math here.

I don't think you are. 80% of the cases are mild or moderate and don't require hospitalization.

 

[Merge]

I don't think you are. 80% of the cases are mild or moderate and don't require hospitalization.

What is worse?
After 1 month, 2,000 people with Ebola and 1,000 dead or 400k with Covid and 12k dead?

 

[shu09]

What is worse?
After 1 month, 2,000 people with Ebola and 1,000 dead or 400k with Covid and 12k dead?

It doesn't work that way in your world of clean, static numbers. The real world is different.

 

[Merge]

It doesn't work that way in your world of clean, static numbers. The real world is different.

They aren’t my numbers. The r0 of Ebola is lower than that of Covid. After a period of time, Covid kills more people. That’s not even debatable.

 

[shu09]

It's obvious we aren't going to agree.

 

[SPK145]

It's not fear mongering. It's science. We have an unleashed pathogen right now and all the U.S. has done is chased the problem to date because we initially downplayed it for political purposes.

Yup, it’s a damn shame political hack and now supposed scientific guru Fauci didn’t take it more seriously:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday...ency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/

 

[Merge]

It's obvious we aren't going to agree.

That's fine. I was just trying to understand why an Ebola outbreak would be a worse situation in your opinion.

My understanding now is you think it would be worse because a higher percentage who get it will die, even though a much lower percentage of the US population will get it.

 

[Merge]

Yup, it’s a damn shame political hack and now supposed scientific guru Fauci didn’t take it more seriously:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday...ency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...inuscule-skip-mask-and-wash-hands/4787209002/

So what Fauci is able to do is to take in new information which changes his views.

Those articles are from January to mid February. Subsequent to those dates he started changing his views on the Virus.

The political side of this is tough because you don't want the public to panic. I think the public comments from Trump started out ok. Closing travel with China was the right thing to do. Keeping the public calm was the right thing to do... Unfortunately we then got to the point where the data coming in was contradicting Trump's previous public comments and he took that personally. He continued to downplay the virus while Fauci and (and many others) started to change their tone.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Political and scientific stuff aside. I’m excited there is even discussion of a baseball season. No better competition in all of sports than a man holding a rock standing 60’6” from a man holding a stick. I can’t wait for the games to start and everything that goes along with the national pastime.

 

[shu09]

Merge, the Swine Flu pandemic about 10 years ago affected over 10% of the world's population and killed anywhere from 150,000 to 575,000 per estimates from some basic information I just looked at. I remember it well and I'm pretty sure I had it at one point as well. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.75. We didn't shut down the country for that. Why not?

 

[SPK145]

So what Fauci is able to do is to take in new information which changes his views.

Isn't that what Trump is also doing (in between the myriad of lies) but Trump is a bum and Fauci is a hero???

 

[Merge]

Merge, the Swine Flu pandemic about 10 years ago affected over 10% of the world's population and killed anywhere from 150,000 to 575,000 per estimates from some basic information I just looked at. I remember it well and I'm pretty sure I had it at one point as well. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.75. We didn't shut down the country for that. Why not?

A couple reasons. Covid is easier to spread and about 100 times as deadly. (Swine flu at .02% and Covid at 2%)

Again, I am not sure you appreciate the exponential growth difference between a reproduction number of 1.75 and 2. It's a massive difference as time goes on and 2 is fairly conservative for Covid at this point.

The WHO released their 78th daily situation report for Covid. - Worldwide there are almost 1.3 million cases and over 72k deaths.
After about the same number of days tracking Swine flu, the WHO reported 94,000 cases and 429 deaths

In the united states, there were 33,000 cases and 170 deaths with Swine Flu and 400k cases and over 12k deaths with Covid.

They are really not similar in their potential impact.

 

[Merge]

Isn't that what Trump is also doing (in between the myriad of lies) but Trump is a bum and Fauci is a hero???

No. Fauci has been relatively good. He has presented the information as he understood it at the time regardless of his past comments. Trump spent a decent amount of time after the situation was changing defending his past comments.

We would have been better off if Trump just let Pence handle it... but Trump is incapable of not making this all about him personally.

 

[shu09]

A couple reasons. Covid is easier to spread and about 100 times as deadly. (Swine flu at .02% and Covid at 2%)

Again, I am not sure you appreciate the exponential growth difference between a reproduction number of 1.75 and 2. It's a massive difference as time goes on and 2 is fairly conservative for Covid at this point.

The WHO released their 78th daily situation report for Covid. - Worldwide there are almost 1.3 million cases and over 72k deaths.
After about the same number of days tracking Swine flu, the WHO reported 94,000 cases and 429 deaths

In the united states, there were 33,000 cases and 170 deaths with Swine Flu and 400k cases and over 12k deaths with Covid.

They are really not similar in their potential impact.

Thanks. It seems as if swine flu spread slower over a longer time. In the end though, it did kill 17,000 Americans. Nobody was too upset over that as I recall, it's funny how things change in 10 years.

 

[shu09]

No. Fauci has been relatively good. He has presented the information as he understood it at the time regardless of his past comments. Trump spent a decent amount of time after the situation was changing defending his past comments.

We would have been better off if Trump just let Pence handle it... but Trump is incapable of not making this all about him personally.

Pence is handling it and doing an outstanding job.

 

[Piratz]

Thanks. It seems as if swine flu spread slower over a longer time. In the end though, it did kill 17,000 Americans. Nobody was too upset over that as I recall, it's funny how things change in 10 years.

Your second sentence was the key to the current situation. COVID-19 was and remains very different than the other pandemics in terms of (a) how contagious/manner of spreading, and (b) the respiratory nature of it. Yes, others have been more lethal, but that's not the sole evaluation point. We don't know what we don't know. All of these clowns minimized it and now we have a healthcare system overloaded. You have to assume the worst for an outbreak with the behavior of this pathogen (points A and B above). The U.S. did not do that.

What is helping the country is the distancing. Remains to be seen if the other areas who were slow to accept it and implement distancing OR the areas still sort of half-assing it will become the next major problem. Can we re-open regionally and limit travel? Not sure.

We will not burn out the virus. It's global. it's not going away. Ultimately will be treated like other viruses we deal with every year. Just cannot have absolute chaos between now and then.

 

[shu09]

All of these clowns minimized it and now we have a healthcare system overloaded. You have to assume the worst for an outbreak with the behavior of this pathogen (points A and B above). The U.S. did not do that.

This is where you're wrong. As the modeling is showing, initial projections were overblown. US deaths will be well under 100,000 with what we know now.

You're watching too much media with agendas. They want to scare you. They want to frighten you. They want you to think everything is absolutely awful at all hospitals across the nation. Hospital systems are not overloaded in the vast majority of the country. Only in New York City, some in New Jersey and a handful elsewhere.

 

[Merge]

Thanks. It seems as if swine flu spread slower over a longer time. In the end though, it did kill 17,000 Americans. Nobody was too upset over that as I recall, it's funny how things change in 10 years.

Funny how the public is able to view different things differently.

 

[shu09]

Funny how the public is able to view different things differently.

Seems to me it's mostly political. The public and media hate the man in the White House, so they blow this out of proportion. Sad.

But there is no question about it, we have become a softer, more politically correct society over the last decade. I really fear for this country's future.

 

[Merge]

This is where you're wrong. As the modeling is showing, initial projections were overblown. US deaths will be well under 100,000 with what we know now.

You're watching too much media with agendas. They want to scare you. They want to frighten you. They want you to think everything is absolutely awful at all hospitals across the nation. Hospital systems are not overloaded in the vast majority of the country. Only in New York City, some in New Jersey and a handful elsewhere.

Actions now are aiming to prevent other states from becoming NY and NJ.

 

[Bud Boomer]

Isn't that what Trump is also doing (in between the myriad of lies) but Trump is a bum and Fauci is a hero???

Plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the aisle. The media too.

 

[HALL85]

Your second sentence was the key to the current situation. COVID-19 was and remains very different than the other pandemics in terms of (a) how contagious/manner of spreading, and (b) the respiratory nature of it. Yes, others have been more lethal, but that's not the sole evaluation point. We don't know what we don't know. All of these clowns minimized it and now we have a healthcare system overloaded. You have to assume the worst for an outbreak with the behavior of this pathogen (points A and B above). The U.S. did not do that.

What is helping the country is the distancing. Remains to be seen if the other areas who were slow to accept it and implement distancing OR the areas still sort of half-assing it will become the next major problem. Can we re-open regionally and limit travel? Not sure.

We will not burn out the virus. It's global. it's not going away. Ultimately will be treated like other viruses we deal with every year. Just cannot have absolute chaos between now and then.

Piratz, just one correction. The healthcare system is not overloaded. The steps that were taken, were done so to avoid that, but the vast majority of hospitals have a census that is much lower than normal, enough equipment and ventilators. It's not meant to diminish what is happening in certain areas or with some hospitals in a hot-spot, but its reality.

 

[shu09]

Actions now are aiming to prevent other states from becoming NY and NJ.

The dynamics in the rest of the country are far different than our area. In this area there is old infrastructure and people on top of people. It's not like that in the vast majority of the country.