The situation is going to get better, and quickly. After we get through the next 5 days you're going to see a sharp decline in cases and deaths.
Play Ball! In May?
- Thread starter Halldan1
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The situation is going to get better, and quickly. After we get through the next 5 days you're going to see a sharp decline in cases and deaths.
Yup. No current or former federal/state/local government was prepared for this (should have listed to george Bush) but there is an awful lot of blaming/whining/backtracking going on.
I don't watch the MSM media on this. I work in healthcare, specifically with hospital systems nationwide. I am referring to the arc that is upon us. it is overwhelming and they're already sharing supplies. It's a moving target. What's true at April 8th at 11:58 will not be true next week.
That's obviously going to happen because the effects of social distancing will kick in. The relevant question is what happens a month after we go back to work. Anyone answering that question in absolutes is kidding themselves. Too many unknowns right now.
Disagree. Will worsen for a week or two, maybe longer, before it improves.
Then it'll come back around again if there isn't a proven treatment.
We'll see who's right. We're seeing a plateau in this area now, so I can't see how it doesn't get better after 5 days.
Plus, this area has been locked down for 2.5-3 weeks now.
I'm not concerned about it re-emerging from people currently in the United States. It will effectively have been snuffed out. My concern would be international travel, people coming in from countries that still have cases or didn't handle it well (like the UK, Spain, Italy).
That is going to be a major issue. The only way to handle it is through travel bans and/or intense screening at limited ports of entry. ID cases, quarantine and contain.
I actually hope you're right. That somehow it's been effectively quarantined already, is in the process of being snuffed out, and it's all another media thing.
It's coming to the other areas. I actually find the other areas of the country to be totally under-reported based upon the things we're working on daily.
Then you have the governor of GA or somewhere in the South acting like it's a recent revelation on how it's spread. SMH.
I hope so too, but I think the chances of that are pretty close to zero.
Yes, roughly 5 days from now. In this area (NY/NJ/CT). Nationally will take a bit longer, although with nearly half of the cases in the entire country in this area, that may skew the national trend downwards as well. That's to be determined though as there may be an uptick elsewhere.
@SHUHoopsFan Did you see that the Yankees and White Sox were scheduled to play a game at Field Of Dreams this summer? Hoping that can still happen, but doubtful.
Of course. I’m a baseball nut. I don’t specifically root for a team but i love watching teams that’s play small ball, steal, bunt, hit and run. Obviously that makes me a much bigger fan of national league ball. I’m really going to miss the Little League classic as well. No college baseball is frustrating. I really wish MLB would extend the fences or raise the mound. My biggest problem with the game taking too long is they’ve changed every rule to make the game have more offense. Get the game back to 2-1, 3-2 games. The game will shorten real quick. Maybe we will also get back to seeing kids throwing a ball off the wall instead of focusing on hitting dingers.
Completely agree. I hate to say it, but it's become a boring game with how it's taught now. We see it in slugging, walks, and strikeouts.
Give me the movement, the full complement of the sport. Give me more Tony Gwynn (RIP) and Wade Boggs types. The Art of Hitting. Give me the contact hitter that can leg out an INF hit or bunt for a hit down the line and applies constant pressure on a pitcher.
I love defense in all sports. I don't think there's a more beautiful sport for defense than baseball. Give me 50 guys that play the game the way Brooks Robinson did and the game would be awesome. You need guys to put the ball in play to see those sparkling highlights.
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Agreed, watching the shift used so often is depressing. No one can bunt anymore to beat it, and they want the guy to swing away into the shift, because his chance of hitting a dinger.
Right.....
Again, I just don't understand how you don't get this. All you can think about is, "I want what I want"...
Why not think about this: what about all of the people NOT getting healthcare now, because 1) Hospitals are jam-packed with COVID patients, and 2) it would be life-threatening for them to receive care now? Don't think that is the case? Well....again you are wrong. There are cancer patients not getting treatments.....why? because if you have cancer your immune system is significantly compromised...and yes this little virus would kill you.
what about regular old surgery you say? Well, again, once cut open you are very vulnerable to infection....and yes this little old virus can kill you.
And as to less than 1% of the population has the virus....even you know that is not true....you basically admitted as much in your posts where you tout "more testing is needed. hardly anyone is being tested"....adn you know what....you're right! And if they were....a whole bunch of them would come back positive blowing your 1% (or even close to it...in this region, I would suggest 25% or more of the population has had COVID...this will be borne out with antibody tests come summer) out of the water.
Well, only 40,000 or so people are going to die? why should my life suffer? To that, I can only suggest your selfishness shines right thru. Sure, go ahead, to outside...infect a grandmother...or grandfather..what they heck, they're old who cares. What's that, young people die too? (hint: they do) oh well...
Have some sense of decency
Going to need to test everyone for both the virus and the antibodies; those who have the antibodies, geet issued some type of identifier saying as much; that gives them more freedom to move about as they likely can't harm anyone.
And when someone does test positive...have to have strong and immediate contact tracing...as a means of avoiding another outbreak.
will also have to bring things back slowly....maybe restaurants start at 25% capacity (again for those who have been shown to be immune)..slowly working back.
Dont think we will be packing sports stadiums anytime soon though, for just the reasons you cite.
I’m on your side of this debate but I don’t think it’s particularly productive to paint the other side as indecent and selfish. Tanking the economy has real societal costs too.
It is morally wrong to deny patients cancer care in favor of someone with this. I would hope that doesn't happen.
Maybe you're right about the 25%, but you don't know that until testing happens on a massive scale. I'd gladly take the antibody test as I had a cough, then 12 hours of fever and then a lingering cough and chest congestion in mid-March. Maybe I had it. That said, it was very mild as far as sickness goes and I thought nothing of it.
Is that true? How come we needed the USNS Comfort in NYC so quickly and needed the Javitz Center turned into a hospital so quickly yet combined they have 242 patients?
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...at-overflow-hospitals-in-new-york-has-doubled
Well I’ll say this I’m glad you got thru it ok. That’s sincere.
But your comments about cancer patients and treatments are off base. Again, there is just a lot more to the story to know. Doctor weighs the risks of delaying treatment vs what would almost assuredly be a bad outcome if the patient gets the virus... which in their condition is highly likely.
Well no one asked me. I don’t think we needed 1,000 more beds but then again I’m not in New York.
Just like the ventilator count they said they needed was way overstated.
There are so many models on this and frankly no one really knows. But they would rather err on the side of having too many resources then be caught short.
let’s hope numbers continue to flatten thru next week. Then we could be moving in the right direction
Ok I’ll back of those characterizations and believe me I’m very sensitive to the economic impact. I’ma Finance guy!
but priority right now has to be to contain virus and then to not let it start up again
Just a few comments to add:
The additional capacity and equipment that are being introduced is really prudent planning. The absolute last thing you want is to run out of beds and not have ventilators. Highly likely we will never come close to utilizing that capacity but the alternative is totally unacceptable.
I’m not sure I understand the point about cancer patients not getting their treatment. If a patient needs an infusion or treatment hospitals are re-directing that patient to alternative location. One of my employees has metastatic breast cancer and was due for a treatment at MSK in NYC two weeks ago. They redirected her to the Monmouth location.
Managing these decisions on how best to treat patients to improve recovery and limit casualties, ensuring the system and caregivers are ready now and under any circumstance, Having the right communication and messaging to the public, and balancing the fragile economic impact to all these things is not easy.
The additional capacity and equipment that are being introduced is really prudent planning. The absolute last thing you want is to run out of beds and not have ventilators. Highly likely we will never come close to utilizing that capacity but the alternative is totally unacceptable.
I’m not sure I understand the point about cancer patients not getting their treatment. If a patient needs an infusion or treatment hospitals are re-directing that patient to alternative location. One of my employees has metastatic breast cancer and was due for a treatment at MSK in NYC two weeks ago. They redirected her to the Monmouth location.
Managing these decisions on how best to treat patients to improve recovery and limit casualties, ensuring the system and caregivers are ready now and under any circumstance, Having the right communication and messaging to the public, and balancing the fragile economic impact to all these things is not easy.
Cuomo said it best yesterday we cannot go from red to green but red to yellow .
The Comfort was supposed to take in patients which were not infected by the coronavirus, so that hospital staff could focus on the pandemic. Originally you needed to be tested before you would be admitted onto the ship, and there was a list of other medical conditions which would exclude you from the ship as well.
They recently changed course and are now allowing coronavirus patients to be treated on the ship.
It was good planning to get it there, not great implementation but seems they are improving there.
For those that love baseball, article in the ledger suggesting the LLWS on the cusp of being officially canceled, however there likely won't be an announcement until May 11.
Two things will drive the bus on a return to normalcy:
1-Ensuring that our health system capacity is on overtaxed or at risk. People are going to continue to get sick with COVID and die for months to come, but as long as our system can manage it, you will see things open up faster or slower purely based on that. Things will also open up at different rates in different areas.
2-Public confidence. We won't have a vaccine for another year, and although various treatments are being trialed, you won't see much progress on that by May in a way that can be used wide-scale. Confidence is a personal choice. If a restaurant re-opens, some people will rush back; some won't go back until they feel it's safe in their mind. That will vary by region as well. A lot of people in NYC will be more hesitant given the impact it's had there. Wyoming will likely go back to normal immediately.
1-Ensuring that our health system capacity is on overtaxed or at risk. People are going to continue to get sick with COVID and die for months to come, but as long as our system can manage it, you will see things open up faster or slower purely based on that. Things will also open up at different rates in different areas.
2-Public confidence. We won't have a vaccine for another year, and although various treatments are being trialed, you won't see much progress on that by May in a way that can be used wide-scale. Confidence is a personal choice. If a restaurant re-opens, some people will rush back; some won't go back until they feel it's safe in their mind. That will vary by region as well. A lot of people in NYC will be more hesitant given the impact it's had there. Wyoming will likely go back to normal immediately.
#2 is essential. You can open, but you need the people to be willing to go out and spend, interact, do more than just work and go to the food store. To me, it starts with the science catching up and reaching a consensus on what this new pathogen truly is in an explainable way (still so many questions on potency, viral load, who it affects more and how, etc.) paired with treatment. Right now you have Tribe A running around saying its a cold, and Tribe B running around projecting it as the Black Death. It's hard for people to find confidence with such extreme views on something totally new and, most importantly, without any way to be assured it can be treated if they get a bad case of it.
Why do we go out when we know we can get the flu or something? Because we are confident in what to watch for to lessen the risk of getting, but even if we do that it can be treated.
Forget the vaccine for now, that's much longer term.
Confidence in the short term will come from knowing this is defined and that you're not rolling the dice on whether you're going to wake up in a week with a 50% blood oxygen level (God forbid) because the lungs are full without any way to deal with it.
Piratz, this is where I think it's going to vary by personal situation and section of the country as well. It's not just how the virus may effect you; it's family, friends, etc. If it's just my wife and me, we're likely to go back to a restaurant the minute it opens (assuming we are living in an area that was mildly impacted.) Someone who is elderly or has young kids living in SOHO might feel very different. Scary thing I saw on the news the other night was 41 NYC transit workers have died. I know people need to use mass transit, but I'm not going to be the first one to jump on NJT, an airline or bus in May. Once things are open, you will pick and choose where to spend our dollars and time. I could see us going to local restaurants, having friends over, playing an insane amount of golf. That vacation to a resort (by plane) will be put off until next year. We are going to spend money....just differently.
