Predictions?
- Thread starter HALL85
- Start date
Never know with Iowa because the voting is so unique. Trump should win, the question is by how much. Conventional wisdom says Haley should be second, but RDS is out there saying his voters are super committed. He has the endorsement of the governor and has visited every corner of the state. Is it all bluster? Probably, but I wouldn't be surprised if he overperforms.
The two key questions to me are Trump's margin and the dynamics of the fight for second place.
Definitely think Vivek drops out before NH because that would theoretically give Trump a boost there. RDS will drop out if he bombs out tonight.
The two key questions to me are Trump's margin and the dynamics of the fight for second place.
Definitely think Vivek drops out before NH because that would theoretically give Trump a boost there. RDS will drop out if he bombs out tonight.
Interesting poll shows an enthusiasm problem for Haley.
Iowa Poll shows Nikki Haley leads Ron DeSantis in Iowa Caucuses. Donald Trump far ahead
Even as Nikki Haley has moved into second place in the Iowa Poll, underlying data shows she’s on “shaky ground,” says pollster J. Ann Selzer.
www.desmoinesregister.com
Enthusiasm for your first choice:
Trump - Extreme - 49% , Very - 39%
Desantis - Extreme 23%, Very - 39%
Haley - Extreme - 9%, Very 30%
Never know what happens in a caucus but it seems Haley's supporters are most likely to be persuaded to someone else. Desantis is going to have a tough road if he doesn't finish second in Iowa. I wouldn't bet on it, but I'm guessing he takes second.
I saw those enthusiasm numbers yesterday and agree that those numbers would indicate that her support can be swayed. But on the other hand, if there was so much enthusiasm for DeSantis, why are his Iowa poll numbers dropping while Haley is going up?Interesting poll shows an enthusiasm problem for Haley.
Iowa Poll shows Nikki Haley leads Ron DeSantis in Iowa Caucuses. Donald Trump far ahead
Even as Nikki Haley has moved into second place in the Iowa Poll, underlying data shows she’s on “shaky ground,” says pollster J. Ann Selzer.www.desmoinesregister.com
Enthusiasm for your first choice:
Trump - Extreme - 49% , Very - 39%
Desantis - Extreme 23%, Very - 39%
Haley - Extreme - 9%, Very 30%
Never know what happens in a caucus but it seems Haley's supporters are most likely to be persuaded to someone else. Desantis is going to have a tough road if he doesn't finish second in Iowa. I wouldn't bet on it, but I'm guessing he takes second.
DeSantis is all in on Iowa and he won't be able to survive coming in third, where it would be a bonus for Haley and give her more momentum going into NH.
That's a good point.
Maybe there are some "Never Trump" Republicans that aren't particularly set on a candidate and switched to Haley recently.
Desantis has had 17-20% support in Iowa for the most of the last few months. Maybe the Haley likely voters that have switched to her recently are not convinced yet? Whereas those who are sticking with Desantis are happy to stick with him?
Just a guess.
LOL i found this graphic funny. i just came upon it trying to get updates for the caucus.
- republicans are so blind raged by biden so much that mentally fit is the main quality for the Rupublican primary, which he isnt even in.
- dont tell me its based on trump because he'll win almost half the vote, so clearly the first quality isnt related to him.
- modern politics doesnt even care about the policies of the politician, but rather can they beat the (gasp) other guy.
- only 75% care about a politician who cares. i guess everyone is jaded at this point, politicians only care about themselves. as long as the candidate isnt joe biden they can be completely apathetic with [insert here] policies.
The social media age has destroyed traditional politics. Everything is about what "team" you're on instead of who is best for the country. We're all Americans. We're all on the same team. That's how it should be.
Pretty disappointing night for Haley I thought. Wasn't really that close to second place. This isn't great news as it keeps this a three person race likely through South Carolina. A lot of pressure on Haley in NH now.
To her credit, she spun it well with an excellent speech afterwards. If people want to beat Biden, she's the best chance.
To her credit, she spun it well with an excellent speech afterwards. If people want to beat Biden, she's the best chance.
I disagree. Haley just needed a respectable showing in Iowa and she got it. She didn't need to come in second, but DeSantis did...barely. Vivek is out now and if DeSantis does poorly in NH, he is out. So not a done deal, but Haley is likely to be the only other candidate by the end of next week.
Three or four months ago, who would have predicted it would be a two person race this quickly? Kind of like March Madness....survive and advance. You have to get to number 2 alone to take on number 1. Haley looks like she has earned that and done it quicker than expected.
Because if he finishes a distant third in NH and anticipates a distant third in SC, why continue. Plus, the support (money) is going to dry up quickly.
With Vivek out now, it's a three person race in NH now. Right now in NH it's Trump 43%, Haley 30%, DeSantis 6% and Vivek 5%. Even if you assume all of Vivek's support goes to Trump the numbers become:
Trump 49%
Haley 30%
DeSantis 6%
Haley has him doubled up in SC (24% to 12%) and she'll have more momentum coming out of NH. What's his path? Wouldn't it make sense to negotiate something for himself with Trump or Haley to drop out sooner?
That's my point. He's already a non-factor in NH, so what happens there doesn't matter at all. He only has upside in NH. He is focused on South Carolina right now, where he should perform better.
By him winning second last night, he just drags out the inevitable and takes votes away from Haley. Would have been much better for the field if Haley finished second in Iowa.
By him winning second last night, he just drags out the inevitable and takes votes away from Haley. Would have been much better for the field if Haley finished second in Iowa.
Matt Schlapp said on Newsmax that both Haley and DeSantis should bail now. While they may have the bankroll, the insult and embarrassment of the distance to #1 can be hurtful
I haven't looked at which of the candidates are spending money and time in SC, but I have a hard time seeing him make up any ground on Haley, just by edging her in Iowa. He went all in in Iowa and went to every county and barely came in second. And if Haley comes in within single digits of Trump in NH, that gives her more momentum for SC as the logical choice to beat Trump (vs. DeSantis).
Have to think there might be some behind-the-scenes negotiation between Haley and DeSantis as to when he drops and what he gets out of it. I could be wrong, but we'll see soon enough.
I guess the question is, who would you rather be this morning? Haley or DeSantis?
I don't see Haley taking over Desantis in Nevada or Michigan so he can safely continue to make his case until Super Tuesday. He just needs to outperform his polls in NH and SC, and he should have some momentum in has favor going into March.
Desantis. He outperformed his polling and will likely take more of the Vivek support than Haley will.
Vivek support is going to Trump IMO. Not like he had much to begin with.
I'd rather be Haley obviously....she has a more defined path to win as of this morning.
Well, neither have a path to "win".
I'd prefer Haley by far, but last night provided enough juice for Desantis to stay in the race for a while. Haley will take 2nd in NH, Desnatis will in NV, then Haley in SC, then Desantis in Michigan.
Right now, Haley has the more attainable path. I don't think that's disputable.
538 has Haley well ahead of RDS in Michigan.
I see this similar to the DNC four years ago. They needed to collapse the field to give Biden the runway. At this point Haley is earning her way and it's up to the powers that be to work out a deal for DeSantis to drop.
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Final Iowa Poll Averages
Trump 52.5
Haley 18.8
DeSantis 15.7
Actual Iowa Results
Trump 51.0
Haley 19.1
DeSantis 21.2
Good night for DeSantis, not a bad night for Haley.
