That’s so sad…. How many “small government fiscally conservative” Republican leaders we’ve had since then.
President Biden's Top Accomplishments
- Thread starter shufan199_3
- Start date
What? The war has had a significant impact on inflation across the world specifically food and energy.
Because he worked with Gingrich across the aisle.
That doesn’t even make any sense. Anything we import will cost more, and anything we export we can now charge more so prices are up on everything.
Of course it has impacted prices in this country… it is a major reason why US food price inflation reached the highest it has been in the last 40 years.
That’s just not true. That part of the basket makes up about 20-30% of the total inflation rate depending which month you’re looking at. May 2022 was 30%. Now it’s 20%.
It also bleeds into others as well fuel costs goes up, transportation costs increase which raises the costs of everything we buy.
The war has had a large impact on inflation.
No it hasn’t. Just from your numbers it’s 20%, which is very low. What’s your source?
BLS monthly inflation stats. Direct 20-30% contribution is low? Come on… That’s even ignoring all of the indirect impacts
What’s your source to support that the war has had little impact?
www.wsj.com
What’s your source to support that the war has had little impact?
How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers
The global supply chain is slow, but the economic fallout from the invasion of Ukraine is swiftly raising prices for producers and consumers world-wide. “It seems to be overshadowing everything now.”
www.wsj.com
Paywall…can you paste?BLS monthly inflation stats. Direct 20-30% contribution is low? Come on… That’s even ignoring all of the indirect impacts
What’s your source to support that the war has had little impact?
How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers
The global supply chain is slow, but the economic fallout from the invasion of Ukraine is swiftly raising prices for producers and consumers world-wide. “It seems to be overshadowing everything now.”
How War in Ukraine Drives Up Inflation at U.S. Farms, Supermarkets, Retailers
The conflict is stressing an already strained global supply chain, and its economic impact will likely be felt in households world-wide, at supermarkets, retailers and the gas pump. While higher costs will take time to work their way from producers to consumers, executives and analysts expect the war’s fallout to worsen inflation already stoked by shortages of goods and workers.“It seems to be overshadowing everything now and reversing the improvement that we were seeing,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
The short-term consequences have been serious. Grain markets recently hit a 14-year high in anticipation of a diminished harvest in Ukraine, which would raise costs to feed the world’s cattle and poultry.
Aluminum prices rose in anticipation of sanctions on Russia, a major supplier of the metal used in soda cans, aircraft and construction, as well as on fears that Moscow could halt exports.
Crude oil prices rose 25% last week, to more than $118 a barrel, the highest level since 2013. Gas prices have gone up an average of 43.7 cents a gallon in the U.S., according to data from price tracker GasBuddy. On Sunday, the national average was $4.02 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.
War Costs
Economic fallout from Russia's war on Ukraine is pushing up prices world-wide
Percentage change in prices from Feb. 1
On Friday, Russia, one of the world’s largest suppliers of fertilizers such as potash and nitrogen, said it could suspend exports. Farmers and consumers will bear the cost of any prolonged shortage.
Ingka Group, which owns and operates furniture giant IKEA’s stores, said Thursday that prices would rise more than expected this year after it warned the war in Ukraine was causing serious supply chain disruptions. IKEA said its global prices would rise about 12%, up from earlier estimates of 9%.
Some analysts and company officials caution that it is too early to know exactly what the long-term effects of the war will have on the global economy, and not all think the conflict in Ukraine will have a major impact on supply chains. Businesses have rebounded from global conflicts in the past and can mitigate the effects by finding alternative suppliers elsewhere.
But the invasion of Ukraine has already slowed the journey of goods traveling by various means. Many Western shipping companies are steering clear of Russian ports, an important Asia-to-Europe rail line is used less, much of the Black Sea remains out of bounds and many air cargo flights are either banned from or are avoiding Russian airspace, a key route for goods moving between Europe and Asia. Shipping and airfreight rates have moved higher.
Rising energy and food prices are only the most obvious pressure points for consumers. “Now that we are seeing increases across other commodities, like aluminum, palladium, copper,” Ms. Bostjancic said, “that is going to feed through to some degree to consumer prices as well.”
Ukraine industries, including car-part manufacturers, breweries and an alumina refinery, have halted production. A giant steel mill owned by ArcelorMittal SA, one of the country’s largest industrial enterprises, closed Thursday. That and other plant closures in the country, along with Russia’s difficulty in getting some of its steel out, are expected to accelerate already rising steel prices.
Companies that use stainless steel and other heat and corrosion-resistant steel alloys containing nickel say they’re bracing for higher prices and the potential for disrupted nickel shipments from Russia, a large exporter.
Nickel also is used in lithium-ion batteries that power consumer electronics and electric vehicles. The price of nickel rose to $29,800 a metric ton, a 14-year high, up about 19% on the London Metal Exchange since the outbreak of fighting in Ukraine.
Small car-parts plants in Ukraine that supply the broader automotive industry have closed, while sanctions and severed trade routes are hindering auto-related shipments to and from Russia.
Farm to table
Ukrainian farmers are supposed to plant their spring crops soon. Yet even if the fighting were to stop, they may not have enough fertilizer and pesticides. Agriculture industry executives are warning of smaller yields in Ukraine, which normally has some of the world’s most productive fields.“Depending on what crop you’re looking at, it could have rather severe impacts already in the first growing season,” said Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive officer of Norway-based Yara International ASA, one of the world’s largest fertilizer makers. “Yields could drop by 50%.”
Ukraine accounts for 8% and 13%, respectively, of global wheat and corn exports, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. “For certain parts of the world it means more expensive food,” Mr. Holsether said. “For other parts of the world, it means access to food, and it’s a matter of life and death.”
In the past month, wheat futures climbed to a 14-year high and rose more than 40% over the past week. Corn and soybean prices over the past month were up roughly 21% and 15%, respectively.
Higher commodity costs stand to further inflate prices of such pantry staples as cereal and cooking oil, as well as beef and other meat, because producers rely heavily on grain to feed livestock and poultry.
Rising grain and corn costs eliminate some of the hope that inflation could plateau in the second half of the year. Such agricultural commodities are used in nearly all food products, said Ben Bienvenu, a food and agribusiness research analyst at Stephens Inc.
Hormel Foods Corp., the owner of food brands including Spam canned meat and Skippy peanut butter, said it expected higher raw material prices from the war in Ukraine. “There will be some disruption now and further down the road,” the company’s Chief Financial Officer Jacinth Smiley said.
James Halverson, a rancher in Beulah, Wyo., and executive director of the South Dakota Stockgrowers Association, said feed costs have jumped in the past week, making it more expensive for ranchers, himself included, to hold on to cattle and negotiate better prices from meatpackers.
If grain costs stay high over the coming months, it will cut into his bottom line, he said, and customers will pay more for meat at the grocery store.
“We’ve seen grain come up,” he said. “That’s the number one cost of feeding cattle.”
Soil supplements
Higher food prices are related to the rising cost of natural gas, one of the main ingredients for nitrogen fertilizers. Ken Seitz, interim chief executive of fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd., said higher gas prices could lead to plantThe transport of fertilizers, largely on trains and ships, has been difficult since the invasion of Ukraine. Several large shipping companies have temporarily suspended services to Russian ports.
Fertilizer supplies were already tight, and prices have reached record highs. That adds to the pressure on farmers, who are paying significantly more for fuel, weed-killing chemicals, crop seeds and seasonal labor.
If fertilizer supplies run short—or get too expensive—some farmers may shift acres toward less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans. Others could cut back on fertilizers, potentially slimming harvests, analysts said.
Nutrien, the Canada-based company, could produce more potash fertilizer if the global supply problems persist, Mr. Seitz said. But his company could be stuck with unsold quantities should Belarusian and Russian suppliers return to the market.
Farmers are wringing their hands over supplies they will need for spring planting, said Chris Edgington, president of the National Corn Growers Association and an Iowa farmer. “The American farmer is going to get a crop in the ground,” he said. “What it will look like, I can’t tell you.”
Randy Stephens, chief executive of SureGrow Agricultural Products Inc., has a plan to fill orders from his roughly 3,000 customers in Texas. The CEO of the chemical and fertilizer business in Comanche, Texas, says that over the next three months he will be making stops at as many as 15 ports from Houston to Corpus Christi, seeking needed shipments.
Even if he finds enough supply, he said, “I think we can run out really quickly.”
I told you, it’s from the BLS monthly reports.
Current release-
www.bls.gov
Comparing the food and energy inflation to all items less food and energy.
That article showed how the war will seep into all aspects of food, energy, transportation and trade.
Now, where is your source to support US inflation not being impacted by the war?
Current release-
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M09 Results
www.bls.gov
Comparing the food and energy inflation to all items less food and energy.
That article showed how the war will seep into all aspects of food, energy, transportation and trade.
Now, where is your source to support US inflation not being impacted by the war?
Please explain how that calculation specifically brings in the impact of the war in Ukraine. There are many factors that impact both that have nothing to do with Ukraine.I told you, it’s from the BLS monthly reports.
Current release-
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M09 Results
Comparing the food and energy inflation to all items less food and energy.
That article showed how the war will seep into all aspects of food, energy, transportation and trade.
Now, where is your source to support US inflation not being impacted by the war?
You just said neither significantly impacted inflation. I proved you wrong, now you’re saying that the war didn’t impact them..
How about this one from Mark Zandi?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine accounts for more than a third of U.S. inflation, forecaster says
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that it triggered is behind more than a third of the 40-year high inflation of 8.6%, according to analysis...
www.marketwatch.com
Moody’s chief economist says a third of US inflation is due to the war, now how about you support your assertion that the war is not impacting us inflation?
You threw stats out and when I asked the source you provided two sources that didn’t support the claim.You just said neither significantly impacted inflation. I proved you wrong, now you’re saying that the war didn’t impact them..
How about this one from Mark Zandi?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine accounts for more than a third of U.S. inflation, forecaster says
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that it triggered is behind more than a third of the 40-year high inflation of 8.6%, according to analysis...
Moody’s chief economist says a third of US inflation is due to the war, now how about you support your assertion that the war is not impacting us inflation?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/george...ally-driving-inflation-today/?sh=39db3e9f80f9
Last edited:
it’s math from BLS data. You can do it yourself, as I did.
That article you just posted even cites the war as one of the three once in a century shocks.
No one suggested the war is responsible for all of inflation, but a third as Mark Zandi suggested is not insignificant.
Lol…your math.
I never said it didn’t have an impact but it’s only one of many factors. Monetary policy, supply chain, etc have had the overall majority of impact.
Yes, my math.
All items - all items less food and energy /all items.
Not that complicated.
Rather than just say maybe you underestimated the impact, you’re just going to go with minimal impact = about a third?
Energy and food drive US inflation to highest for 40 years - BBC News
Rising energy and food costs pushed inflation to 8.6% in May, the highest rate in more than 40 years.
www.bbc.com
The war was a significant part of inflation in 2022.
There is nothing in your math that isolates the impact of the war.Yes, my math.
All items - all items less food and energy /all items.
Not that complicated.
Rather than just say maybe you underestimated the impact, you’re just going to go with minimal impact = about a third?
Energy and food drive US inflation to highest for 40 years - BBC News
Rising energy and food costs pushed inflation to 8.6% in May, the highest rate in more than 40 years.
The war was a significant part of inflation in 2022.
I isolated food and energy because you said “both had a minimal impact on inflation”. But ok, don’t take my word for it. I posted a couple articles which explain how the war will impact inflation in the US and an economist who said the war accounts for a third of US inflation.
So far you provided an article which doesn’t isolate any cause and lists the war as one of the reasons for the current inflation.
But those numbers don’t isolate specifically the impact of the Ukrainian war on those numbers.
again, so ignore them… I’ve provided other articles and an economist which supports my view.
It’s your argument here, so support it. Go ahead and find something that isolates the impact on inflation from the war being minimal.
Great, so the “math” doesn’t tie to your claim.
I provided an article from Forbes, that lists all of the things that have contributed to inflation. I never said that Ukrainian war didn’t. But there are a lot of other factors that have outweighed its impact.
https://mcgillbusinessreview.com/articles/the-war-in-ukraine-economic-effects-on-a-global-scale
Compares US impact to Europe.
Compares US impact to Europe.
Right. The war has had a larger impact on European countries. That’s why most European countries have a much higher inflation rate than we do.
That doesn’t mean it hasn’t had a significant impact on us as well.
According to this, the Fed has the global inflation rate due to the war at 1.3%
US inflation in March was 8.5%. That puts the war's impact on inflation at 15%
US inflation in March was 8.5%. That puts the war's impact on inflation at 15%
The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
www.federalreserve.gov
Last edited:
According to this, the Fed has the global inflation rate due to the war at 1.3%
US inflation in March was 8.5%. That puts the war's impact at 15%
The Effect of the War in Ukraine on Global Activity and Inflation
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.www.federalreserve.gov
That’s a global rate, some would obviously be more and some less, but the conclusion sums it up well.
Concluding Remarks.
The increased geopolitical risks induced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine will weigh adversely on global economic conditions throughout 2022. Such effects are estimated in our model to reduce GDP and boost inflation significantly, exacerbating the policy trade-offs facing central banks around the world. While sizeable, these effects do not appear to be large enough to derail the global recovery from the pandemic. However, the future of the war is highly uncertain, and unforeseen developments in the conflict could generate further changes to geopolitical risk and worsen its economic effects.I guess solving the potential rail strike that Biden took credit before mid term for is now unsolved and he is staying he is not directly involved like he was last time.Makes sense he doesn’t want any criticism for strike and now wants congress to settle it.KInda like if gas prices go up it is Putin’s fault and if they come down it is Biden who did it.
You are really taking a shot at Biden for this? A tentative deal was reached a few months ago. But 3 of the 12 Unions rejected it. So Biden wants Congress to impose the the deal that was negotiated which probably pissed off some in labor which are his own allies but yet goes against him for the good of the country. I think he is doing the right thing.
A lot of blame to go around but well over 100,000 people will die from fentanyl this year….3X from three years ago and 2X as the worst year in U.S. history of AIDS deaths.
Pouring through our borders. Are we good with how the Biden Administration and Congress are handling this?
Pouring through our borders. Are we good with how the Biden Administration and Congress are handling this?
Well over 100k from just fentanyl? Where are you getting that from? That seems high.
Recent provisional CDC data suggested we may have peaked on overall overdose deaths and are starting to trend downwards for the first time in years.
Products - Vital Statistics Rapid Release - Provisional Drug Overdose Data
National Center for Health Statistics
www.cdc.gov
https://www.dea.gov/stories/2022/20...eaths-climbing-dea-washington-continues-fightWell over 100k from just fentanyl? Where are you getting that from? That seems high.
Recent provisional CDC data suggested we may have peaked on overall overdose deaths and are starting to trend downwards for the first time in years.
Products - Vital Statistics Rapid Release - Provisional Drug Overdose Data
National Center for Health Statistics
DEA
Correction…Overdose deaths (largest share being fentanyl) but doesn’t look like it’s trending down by any means; quite the opposite.
https://drugabusestatistics.org/fentanyl-abuse-statistics/
Last edited:
Quite the opposite? I just gave you a link that showed that overdose deaths peaked. Here is synthetic opioids broken out alone -
We peaked months ago and are now on a down trend. I’m not yet convinced that the trend will continue downwards, but not sure how you can argue that point.
And I provided two articles that argued the opposite point.Quite the opposite? I just gave you a link that showed that overdose deaths peaked. Here is synthetic opioids broken out alone -
We peaked months ago and are now on a down trend. I’m not yet convinced that the trend will continue downwards, but not sure how you can argue that point.
Which are both outdated.... Those links are using the same data from the CDC but are missing the last 1-2 years of data.
I provided the most up to date data available and you're just going to ignore it because it doesn't fit your narrative? What a joke.
The joke is thinking the problem is getting better..
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/16/americas-fentanyl-problem-teens
The lethality of Fentanyl is scary.
100,000 fentanyl deaths vs 583 murders with an Assault weapon with some percentage of those criminal on criminal.
Cue the false equivalency police. LOL
It does seem to be though if you actually care about what the data is showing. You did seem to care about that outdated data when it supported your view but want to ignore the current data which doesn't.
Whether or not it continues on that trend is debatable, but your characterizations here about things getting worse are just observably not true. They are trending in the right direction for the first time if years.
You've just gotten everything wrong on this topic. Fentanyl not well over 100k and not trending upwards.
You did seem to nail the number of AIDS deaths though, and your multiplier would have worked if you weren't wrong on the fentanyl deaths, so at least you looked something up.
Similar threads
