Seton 75

[knowknow456]

I’ve had a theory. If I asked people the following true/false question – “politicians are bums and we should vote them all out” I bet way over 50% would vote true. Yet, in election after election at every level of government the incumbent wins an overwhelming percentage of the time. There is some disconnect between what people say and what they ultimately do.

In the case of Trump, he has become the embodiment of the “throw ‘em out” crowd. I believe his support will erode from where it is but probably not much below 15%. The issue for the establishment is that Carson (another “outsider”) is also grabbing a share of this “outsider” sentiment. Together they are polling around 50%. It does appear 50% is the cap. Last month when Fiorina was more in the mix, the three combined percentage was around 50%. She dropped and Carson got stronger but the overall number is pretty consistent.

The question I can’t seem to answer is how do the voters resolve between Trump and Carson? Other than their outsider cachet, they are quite different candidates. It seems unlikely that a Trump supporter will automatically switch to Carson or vice versa. Carson is tailor made for Iowa, whether he can sustain that momentum beyond that is unclear. I guess the next data point will come after the next debate.

 

[Bobbie Solo]

I’ve had a theory. If I asked people the following true/false question – “politicians are bums and we should vote them all out” I bet way over 50% would vote true. Yet, in election after election at every level of government the incumbent wins an overwhelming percentage of the time. There is some disconnect between what people say and what they ultimately do.

This is too simplistic of an argument. I agree with you in principal, but here's an extra part that factor in for most voters. Yes, they want to vote the bums out, but not at the expense of their core beliefs. In NJ for example, I don't think Menendez is exactly firing up the electorate. The guys sucks, we can all agree from either the left or the right, correct? But b/c of the two party system, where is the viable alternative for Democratic/left-leaning voters? Yeah Menendez is a zilch, but are they gonna throw him out to bring in someone on the right that they REALLY don't agree with, just b/c he's someone different? Yeah yeah, alot of you don't see party affiliation and just go by the candidates. Well, even so, if the new, fresh candidates are people who you don't see eye to eye with on any issue, you're just going to vote them in b/c they're not incumbents? That doesn't sit well either with people, and it shouldn't.

Term limits would make my argument null & void in many cases. So let's all get on board with that train.

 

[HALL85]

I’ve had a theory. If I asked people the following true/false question – “politicians are bums and we should vote them all out” I bet way over 50% would vote true. Yet, in election after election at every level of government the incumbent wins an overwhelming percentage of the time. There is some disconnect between what people say and what they ultimately do.

In the case of Trump, he has become the embodiment of the “throw ‘em out” crowd. I believe his support will erode from where it is but probably not much below 15%. The issue for the establishment is that Carson (another “outsider”) is also grabbing a share of this “outsider” sentiment. Together they are polling around 50%. It does appear 50% is the cap. Last month when Fiorina was more in the mix, the three combined percentage was around 50%. She dropped and Carson got stronger but the overall number is pretty consistent.

The question I can’t seem to answer is how do the voters resolve between Trump and Carson? Other than their outsider cachet, they are quite different candidates. It seems unlikely that a Trump supporter will automatically switch to Carson or vice versa. Carson is tailor made for Iowa, whether he can sustain that momentum beyond that is unclear. I guess the next data point will come after the next debate.

No hard numbers to support but here's the two phenomena we are seeing:
* "Throw em out crowd": People that are sick and tired of Beltway nonsense that Trump, Carson, Fiorina and even Sanders (he's not your typical insider even though he's been a politician for a long time). 30% of the total population?
* "Mindless sheep": Vote party lines no matter who the candidate. If Jack the Ripper won the primary for their party, he would get the vote. 60% of the total population? and there is a little cross-over with the first category (as long as the "throw em out" is my party!).
Who is actually voting and making an informed decision? Not many. We really need campaign financing reform at 4-5 parties but that's another story.

 

[knowknow456]

Some random replies.

1. No one really knows what the true percentage of the throw em out crowd is. 30% seems like the upper limit to me but we are certainly conducting a real time experiment.

2. Personally, I am not in favor of Term Limits. Not everyone who gets elected is terrible and there would be a certain amount of chaos with constant turnover. I could be convinced with long term, term limits. say 30 years or age 80 or something like that.

3. By the time the general election comes, it is too late. In the general election, Democrats will indeed hold their nose and vote for Menendez, fearful that the Republican alternative will be worse. The Tea Party has done wonderful work attacking weaker Republican candidates and sneaking their guys into the general election. The primaries is where people need to focus but historically voter turnout and interest is very low. That is a big problem.

4. Just a personal observation. In my Congressional district, I have a long term incumbent, fairly conservative, but not extreme. Every four years the Democrats trot out some cannon fodder who promises to eliminate waste and save me tax dollars. He will get somewhere between 25-35% of the vote overall. He could be great but he is underfunded and no one knows who he is. That is how Trump remains so strong. After 30 years in the spotlight, people feel they know him and would vote for him. I bet if he ran in my district, he would beat this long term incumbent.

5. I would not be a big fan of a more fragmented party system (i.e. 4-5 political parties). Coalition government has some advantages but I think I would be resistant to that change, at least initially. If it really did come to that, I would adapt.

 

[SnakeTom]

And Bernie is normal??? OMG

Well actually yes. Bernie & Cruz are on opposite sides of the political spectrum but both are very intelligent and bring up points of view that should be discussed. I think both add to the political process but I do not think either would make a good President. I think America is best off when governed from the political center or close to it. Otherwise you have gridlock with nothing being accomplished. Now as to candidates such as Carson or even Huckabee I think you have crazies who have no idea what they are talking about. In either case as much as I hate to say it Trump would be the better choice.

Tom K

 

[Bobbie Solo]

There is almost universal agreement amongst voters on the right & left that more parties are needed. Removing corporate $/big $ from the campaign system is even more important & needs immediate attention, but having more choices that can actually get elected (I love my Green Party candidates, but they have no shot). So you're in a major minority there.

I meant a long term limit, not constant turnover. Three or four terms for Senators, longer for House members and assorted state offices. I don't think anyone should be in one office for more than 20 or so years. This is flexible depending on the pros & cons set forth from both POV.

 

[HALL85]

Well actually yes. Bernie & Cruz are on opposite sides of the political spectrum but both are very intelligent and bring up points of view that should be discussed. I think both add to the political process but I do not think either would make a good President. I think America is best off when governed from the political center or close to it. Otherwise you have gridlock with nothing being accomplished. Now as to candidates such as Carson or even Huckabee I think you have crazies who have no idea what they are talking about. In either case as much as I hate to say it Trump would be the better choice.

Tom K

My short response...yes, Cruz and Sanders are passionate about their positions, but both are nut jobs with extreme positions...I agree though that we need someone that can govern from the center. Kasich and Webb seem most able to do so, but unfortunately the electorate seems to disagree and would prefer an outsider (because they're disgusted) or like the more extremist views of their side of the party.

 

[Seton75]

Trump was funny yesterday talking to some voters in Iowa. Acknowledged he is not winning. Showed some humor. Said Iowa should get their ass in gear and get behind him (said it with a smile...).

 

[Seton75]

I post here for no reason other to acknowledge that even I can find an acorn...lol

 

[HALL85]

I post here for no reason other to acknowledge that even I can find an acorn...lol

That acorn though was "HUGE!!!!"