If Seton Hall fails to get an NCAA tournament automatic bid (by winning the Big East tournament) they'll have about a one in three chance of getting an at-large bid.
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As for an automatic bid ... Seton Hall has a 2% chance to win the conference tournament. The outlook is bleak, but stranger things have happened.
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If the Pirates can get to 21 total wins (including conference tournament wins), their odds to make the NCAA tournament increase to 89%.
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We project the Pirates with a 4% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen, but essentially no chance to reach the Final Four.