Surprise Surprise

[SHallguy2]

As Gomer Pyle use to say Surprise Surprise the violent crime rate went up and not down in 2022. The FBI just adjusted the stats. So instead of going down over 2% it went up over 4%. So if you were quoting government numbers on crime rate you were wrong, and if you used the job numbers that was wrong as well. Keep in mind we are talking 2022 and not 2023. Pretty pathetic to quietly release these numbers 20 days prior to the election. Anyone quoting government stats will need an asterisk from now on. Need to fact check our government.

 

[SPK145]

Need to fact check our government.

Horribly inept and corrupt.

 

[HALL85]

Horribly inept and corrupt.

Should we hold our breath for the MSN retraction?

Also inept and corrupt.

 

[Merge]

You're telling half the story. The revision was both a decrease in the number for 2021 and a smaller increase in 2022. Net result is less crime.

For the crime rates of the last 20 years -

2005 was 1st (worst)
2021 was the 20th (best)
2022 - 12th
2023 - 18th

Per 100,000 people, the violent crime rate in 2022 was 377.1. Average of Trump's term was 374.5.
2023 is 368.8.

Also true that Murders jumped in 2020 and didn't decrease in 2021 or 2022 though.
2023 they are back down to 5.7 per 100,000 - or the same as 2017.

The narrative of the increases under Biden just isn't true when you include the most recent data. 2023 is lower than any year Trump was in office.

So, this is something the media should push back on.

 

[HALL85]

You're telling half the story. The revision was both a decrease in the number for 2021 and a smaller increase in 2022. Net result is less crime.

For the crime rates of the last 20 years -

2005 was 1st (worst)
2021 was the 20th (best)
2022 - 12th
2023 - 18th

Per 100,000 people, the violent crime rate in 2022 was 377.1. Average of Trump's term was 374.5.
2023 is 368.8.

Also true that Murders jumped in 2020 and didn't decrease in 2021 or 2022 though.
2023 they are back down to 5.7 per 100,000 - or the same as 2017.

The narrative of the increases under Biden just isn't true when you include the most recent data. 2023 is lower than any year Trump was in office.

So, this is something the media should push back on.

Here is how one outlet (ABC) framed it earlier this month.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/violent-crime-103-months-2024-fbi-data/story?id=114380615

 

[Rockaway]

Got to be suspicious of anything FBI states when Trump is a candidate given the Comey gang actions in 2016 and Hunter laptop in 2020.They have caused a lot of distrust in the public

 

[Robot_Man]

You're telling half the story. The revision was both a decrease in the number for 2021 and a smaller increase in 2022. Net result is less crime.

For the crime rates of the last 20 years -

2005 was 1st (worst)
2021 was the 20th (best)
2022 - 12th
2023 - 18th

Per 100,000 people, the violent crime rate in 2022 was 377.1. Average of Trump's term was 374.5.
2023 is 368.8.

Also true that Murders jumped in 2020 and didn't decrease in 2021 or 2022 though.
2023 they are back down to 5.7 per 100,000 - or the same as 2017.

The narrative of the increases under Biden just isn't true when you include the most recent data. 2023 is lower than any year Trump was in office.

So, this is something the media should push back on.

@Merge doing Yeoman's fact-checking work as usual. It should be noted also that the original report that kicked off these breathless stories on Fox News, NYP, and elsewhere online was from "RealClear Investigations," which doesn't bother to link to any reports on the FBI website. Which makes sense because as Merge noted above, the story is more nuanced, and the updated figures actually show an overall decrease in total crime reporting in the two years combined (2021 and 2022) than what was previously reported.

The author of the piece is John Lott, a documented liar and hyper-partisan who presents himself as a serious academic. He has some quotes in his article by Carl Moody, who Lott describes as a "professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime." It's very interesting that Lott does not mention that he has worked with Moody before. It sure seems like Lott is trying to pass Moody off as an independent academic instead of his buddy and collaborative research partner.

What is even the claim here? That the FBI is covering for Biden/Harris? The FBI Director is a Republican appointed by Trump! You don't think he'd blow the whistle if he got the slightest inkling that he was getting pressure to doctor the numbers?

So if you were quoting government numbers on crime rate you were wrong, and if you used the job numbers that was wrong as well. Keep in mind we are talking 2022 and not 2023. Pretty pathetic to quietly release these numbers 20 days prior to the election. Anyone quoting government stats will need an asterisk from now on. Need to fact check our government.

I don't know if you saw this, but the September jobs report showed upward revisions for July and August. So this claim that they always revise the jobs numbers down after the fact is not true.

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to+144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With theserevisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agenciessince the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)"

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

[SHallguy2]

You're telling half the story. The revision was both a decrease in the number for 2021 and a smaller increase in 2022. Net result is less crime.

For the crime rates of the last 20 years -

2005 was 1st (worst)
2021 was the 20th (best)
2022 - 12th
2023 - 18th

Per 100,000 people, the violent crime rate in 2022 was 377.1. Average of Trump's term was 374.5.
2023 is 368.8.

Also true that Murders jumped in 2020 and didn't decrease in 2021 or 2022 though.
2023 they are back down to 5.7 per 100,000 - or the same as 2017.

The narrative of the increases under Biden just isn't true when you include the most recent data. 2023 is lower than any year Trump was in office.

So, this is something the media should push back on.

Good to use 2023 numbers now while they still look good. A year from now they will be completely different. Hard to have an intelligent conversation when you know the numbers will be changing.

 

[Merge]

Which makes sense because as Merge noted above, the story is more nuanced, and the updated figures actually show an overall decrease in total crime reporting in the two years combined (2021 and 2022) than what was previously reported.

Exactly! The actual data is always nuanced, and the fact there are revisions does not imply nefarious intent.

Collecting data from all over the country is going to be a difficult task. Adjusting by a percentage or two after audits or whatever really doesn't suggest anything nefarious is going on.

Trump comes out and says there was a 43% increase in violent crime. The media comes out to correct that absurd statement, and then the media is the bad guy because the FBI data which was modified was slightly off, but no where close to being a 43% change.

 

[SHallguy2]

@Merge doing Yeoman's fact-checking work as usual. It should be noted also that the original report that kicked off these breathless stories on Fox News, NYP, and elsewhere online was from "RealClear Investigations," which doesn't bother to link to any reports on the FBI website. Which makes sense because as Merge noted above, the story is more nuanced, and the updated figures actually show an overall decrease in total crime reporting in the two years combined (2021 and 2022) than what was previously reported.

The author of the piece is John Lott, a documented liar and hyper-partisan who presents himself as a serious academic. He has some quotes in his article by Carl Moody, who Lott describes as a "professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime." It's very interesting that Lott does not mention that he has worked with Moody before. It sure seems like Lott is trying to pass Moody off as an independent academic instead of his buddy and collaborative research partner.

What is even the claim here? That the FBI is covering for Biden/Harris? The FBI Director is a Republican appointed by Trump! You don't think he'd blow the whistle if he got the slightest inkling that he was getting pressure to doctor the numbers?



I don't know if you saw this, but the September jobs report showed upward revisions for July and August. So this claim that they always revise the jobs numbers down after the fact is not true.

"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to+144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With theserevisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agenciessince the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)"

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

So they were off by 810,000 but added 72,000 back. Is that what your saying?

 

[Merge]

Good to use 2023 numbers now while they still look good. A year from now they will be completely different. Hard to have an intelligent conversation when you know the numbers will be changing.

and they could go down as well. If they are adjusted by a percentage or two up, it would still show a decline from 2022.
It would still show an overall rate below what it was when Trump was in office.

I am not arguing the FBI numbers are perfect.
I am not arguing that the media is telling the story perfectly.

This is a nuanced debate and plenty of room for improvement. I think Dems have made plenty of mistakes on the topic, but the narrative that things are much worse than they were under Trump, or that things are getting worse now are just not true.

 

[SHallguy2]

Anyway you look at it, we cannot trust the numbers. Works both ways bad for everyone. The more money we spend the more screwed up things become. Why wait until 20 days until the election to announce the revisions, hurts your candidate. Likewise Trump gets elected and violent crime numbers go down he will be boasting about it for years. Fact is we spend trillions of dollars and cannot get numbers straight. Maybe we need to hire more accountants. Why quote or reference 2023 when you know they are going to change in 2025.

 

[HALL85]

and they could go down as well. If they are adjusted by a percentage or two up, it would still show a decline from 2022.
It would still show an overall rate below what it was when Trump was in office.

I am not arguing the FBI numbers are perfect.
I am not arguing that the media is telling the story perfectly.

This is a nuanced debate and plenty of room for improvement. I think Dems have made plenty of mistakes on the topic, but the narrative that things are much worse than they were under Trump, or that things are getting worse now are just not true.

You’re comparing a politicians claim to the MSM (who are supposed to be the arbiters of facts/truth). ABC and others clearly misrepresented the information to support a narrative.

 

[SHallguy2]

and they could go down as well. If they are adjusted by a percentage or two up, it would still show a decline from 2022.
It would still show an overall rate below what it was when Trump was in office.

I am not arguing the FBI numbers are perfect.
I am not arguing that the media is telling the story perfectly.

This is a nuanced debate and plenty of room for improvement. I think Dems have made plenty of mistakes on the topic, but the narrative that things are much worse than they were under Trump, or that things are getting worse now are just not true.

Raw number of violent crime incidents — including murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, an increase of 4.9%. The total difference is around 80,000 more violent crimes than originally reported or just more than a full stadium at the Meadowlands on a Sunday afternoon. You are talking about a 7% swing in the numbers 2% down to 4.9% up. I don’t care who is in office get the numbers right. How inept are we as a country. Is it political or just ignorance. This should bother every citizen.

 

[Merge]

Anyway you look at it, we cannot trust the numbers. Works both ways bad for everyone. The more money we spend the more screwed up things become. Why wait until 20 days until the election to announce the revisions, hurts your candidate. Likewise Trump gets elected and violent crime numbers go down he will be boasting about it for years. Fact is we spend trillions of dollars and cannot get numbers straight. Maybe we need to hire more accountants. Why quote or reference 2023 when you know they are going to change in 2025.

Within a percentage of two is entirely reasonable when you're collecting data from a ton of sources from all around the entire country. Each state collects data in different ways and then reports it.

The revisions to hurt or help a candidate is just political spin. Again, the total of 2021 and 2022 decreased! And this is somehow bad news for Harris? It makes no sense.

We can discuss 2023 now because we know it will likely be relatively accurate, and worst case - an upward revision larger than any previous upward revision ever would still show improvement from 2022. It would still be less than than the rate of 2017.

 

[Merge]

Raw number of violent crime incidents — including murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, an increase of 4.9%. The total difference is around 80,000 more violent crimes than originally reported or just more than a full stadium at the Meadowlands on a Sunday afternoon. You are talking about a 7% swing in the numbers 2% down to 4.9% up.

Initial 2021 estimate - 1,253,716
Actual decreased (55,786)

Initial 2022 estimate - 1,232,428
Actual increased - 24,243

NET DECREASE (31,543)

You're literally update because there was less crime in 2021 than we initially thought.

I don’t care who is in office get the numbers right. How inept are we as a country. Is it political or just ignorance. This should bother every citizen.

The FBI collects data from states who collect data in different ways from various precincts etc. They validate and review for reasonableness and report. They have made changes to their reporting requirements and states are adapting. They should continue to report and improve the reporting where they can. It will never be prefect because humans are involved and humans make mistakes.

 

[knowknow456]

Horribly inept and corrupt.

You should emigrate to another country. It's a win for everyone.

 

[Robot_Man]

So they were off by 810,000 but added 72,000 back. Is that what your saying?

Once again, I have to ask: what claim are we making here? That the Labor Secretary is pressuring the BLS to inflate payroll numbers? If that were the case, why would the BLS correct the record at all? It doesn't make sense, or it's one of the least effective pressure campaigns I've ever seen.

And why now would they be doing the opposite in the September jobs report, revising numbers up from the original press release?

You’re comparing a politicians claim to the MSM (who are supposed to be the arbiters of facts/truth). ABC and others clearly misrepresented the information to support a narrative.

First of all, it would be nice if the politician in question didn't say crazy lies on television in the first place.

Second, can you tell me what information ABC and others "clearly misrepresented?" We've shown here that this so-called revision points to an overall decrease in incidents in 2021 and 2022. The person who "clearly misrepresented" this FBI update was the partisan hack who wrote the original story.

When Trump is talking about skyrocketing crime in his rallies and during the debate, are you under the impression he's talking in particular about just 2021 and 2022? Because I think he's talking about crime being "through the roof" in 2024 (not a couple years ago). And what does the FBI press release say about this? I'll actually link to the FBI website, which is more than I can say for John Lott's "investigative reporting."

"A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least three or more common months of data for January through June 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 10.3%. Murder decreased by 22.7%, rape decreased by 17.7%, robbery decreased by 13.6%, and aggravated assault decreased by 8.1%. Reported property crime also decreased by 13.1%." [emphasis mine]

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-quarterly-crime-report-and-use-of-force-data-update-q2

And your issue is with ABC for calling out this obvious lie and not the guy who said the lie in the first place? It would actually be a more severe case of journalistic malpractice if ABC hadn't corrected the record at all. Which is what CBS was apparently fine with doing for the VP debate (except for one time).

By the way, any scorn for the author of the piece who misrepresented the data in the first place, or are we only reserving that for the "MSM?"

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

How is it we have to have all our taxes done in 3.5 months but they can change these numbers 3 years later.