Based on this week's results, it will be a lot closer than I would have thought. The beginning of conference play has had a big effect.
I went through every team that received a vote this week and there are a ton of losses scattered throughout.
Notable in the top 15:
No. 9 Oklahoma lost twice at TCU and at Kansas.
No. 11 Marquette lost its only game home against Butler
With that I don't think either has any real effect on us getting in or staying out. Here's what everyone from No. 16 on down to us at No. 34 did this week.
No. 16 Auburn: Home win over Texas A&M, home win over LSU
No. 17 Colorado State: Loss at Boise State
No. 18 BYU: Loss at Baylor, home win over UCF
No. 19 San Diego State: Win at San Jose State, loss at New Mexico
No. 20 Utah State: Home win over Wyoming, win at UNLV
No. 21 Clemson: Loss at Virginia Tech, home win over Boston College
No. 22 Creighton: Win at De Paul, home win over St. John's
No. 23 Gonzaga: Loss at Santa Clara
No. 24 Florida Atlantic: Win at Tulane, home win over UAB
No. 25 Texas: Win at Cincinnati, loss at West Virginia
ARV Dayton: Win at Duquesne
ARV Mississippi: Home wins over Florida and Vanderbilt
ARV James Madison: Home win over South Alabama, loss at Appalachian State
ARV Cincinnati: Home loss to Texas, loss at Baylor
ARV Nevada: Home win over Air Force, home loss to Boise State
ARV Texas Tech: Home wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State
ARV Wake Forest: Loss at Florida State, home win over Virginia
ARV Grand Canyon: Home wins over Abilene Christian and Tarleton State
ARV Seton Hall: Wins at Georgetown and Butler
Below that:
ARV Iowa State: Home wins over Houston and Oklahoma State
ARV Alabama: Home win over South Carolina, win at Mississippi State
ARV TCU: Home wins over Oklahoma and Houston (both top 10 last week)
I'd expect Texas and Gonzaga to fall out. Maybe Clemson does too but I don't think it's a sure thing. Mississippi will move back in. We're battling Texas Tech for the second opening and we'd both get in if Clemson slips out.