Trump takes South Carolina and Jeb bows out
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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Romney needs to go away. I'm not happy with Trump but at least the guy is winning fair and square. The Repubs like Romney are just upset they could not get the same turnout he is getting.
And while I doubt anything will happen to Hillary it is not a sure thing. Two interesting articles below:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/former-...n-email-probe-1457017878#lf_comment=470838818
https://reason.com/archives/2016/03/03/hillary-clintons-false-hopes
And while I doubt anything will happen to Hillary it is not a sure thing. Two interesting articles below:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/former-...n-email-probe-1457017878#lf_comment=470838818
https://reason.com/archives/2016/03/03/hillary-clintons-false-hopes
I listened David Axelrod's podcast when Romney was on. He sounded like a guy saying all of the right things who wants to be president.
I think if he thought he could enter the race in November and beat Trump he would have. Now he doesn't need to run against Trump. He doesn't need to appease the conservative base by saying all of the far right things to win the nomination. He just needs to "answer the call" if Trump misses the threshold, and he can run as the moderate that he actually is a general election candidate.
So Romney just told the 49% of the people that are supporting Trump that they are dumb. Great move.
Actually a desperate move by the Rep Establishment, by putting up a guy on stage who ran the absolute worst campaign and couldn't beat a beatable Obama, and was happy to take Trump's endorsement four years ago and is now essentially irrelevant.
And how does Rubio and Cruz feel about Romney jumping in? You think they will go along with that idea?
Actually a desperate move by the Rep Establishment, by putting up a guy on stage who ran the absolute worst campaign and couldn't beat a beatable Obama, and was happy to take Trump's endorsement four years ago and is now essentially irrelevant.
And how does Rubio and Cruz feel about Romney jumping in? You think they will go along with that idea?
Again... Fairly clear it is not close to 49%. That was a bad poll, but someone had to say it... They are dumb.
There is no risk to Romney in doing this. Pollsters will judge the reaction and if it is favorable AND Trump misses out on the delegates needed to win he jumps in. If polls show a poor reaction he doesn't.
Who cares about what Rubio and Cruz think? They aren't winning. They don't have to go along with the idea.
Bad poll because you said so?? lol
Who knows what the impact of Romney's speech will be. He was irrelevant before so like you said, there was no downside to him. I think the Republican party runs the risk of galvanizing the Trump support even more. They are positioning themselves as elitists that are acting desperate since they can't get their way and they want to throw the chess board in the air because they know they are losing the game.
It will be interesting to watch how Trump responds to this. Will he use this as his "pivot" moment? He's mastered the media thus far, so I defer to him, but this could be that defining moment one way or another.
So great...we can choose from two previous election losers who don't energize or inspire anyone...but they sure are power/money hungry and ambitious! I'll stick with the Green Party as usual if that's the case.
Whereas Bernie has been winning all of his elections for 40 years and has a ground swell of support that actually believe in his message and trust him implicitly. Plus, he's winning primary states that are typically more purple/allow independents to vote in the primary...but no, he's not electable according to the pundits on TV. Nevermind that winning states like those are way more important than say a Georgia or SOuth Carolina that will go red no matter what. And then they wonder why young people don't watch them on TV & go to the internet for their news...
Whereas Bernie has been winning all of his elections for 40 years and has a ground swell of support that actually believe in his message and trust him implicitly. Plus, he's winning primary states that are typically more purple/allow independents to vote in the primary...but no, he's not electable according to the pundits on TV. Nevermind that winning states like those are way more important than say a Georgia or SOuth Carolina that will go red no matter what. And then they wonder why young people don't watch them on TV & go to the internet for their news...
No. Because the data said so.
Of the votes cast to date - Trump has received 34% of them.
Even if we arbitrarily exclude Texas from our national average Trump has 37% of the votes.
49% in this field is just not accurate at all unless you think he has like 80% in California or something which I can assure you is not the case.
Anyone watch the debacle last night? Was waiting for Romney to come out with a steel chair, hit Rubio over the head with a steel chair and announce he will be Trump's running mate. Would be a great heel turn!
I like Kasich but I feel like he is avoiding the important issues. He didn't once refer to the adequacy of his penis size.. It is also rare we get to pinpoint the exact moment of the end of someone's campaign, but I think we got one last night in the collective groan when Cruz ate his booger... Thankfully at least Trump didn't see it or he would have been talking about Cruz's cooties. I like the new RubiOS. I can barely tell he is a robot now, although he did almost overheat with the "little Marco" comments. Probably needs a new heat-sink. I did think last night was Carson's best though.
I like Kasich but I feel like he is avoiding the important issues. He didn't once refer to the adequacy of his penis size.. It is also rare we get to pinpoint the exact moment of the end of someone's campaign, but I think we got one last night in the collective groan when Cruz ate his booger... Thankfully at least Trump didn't see it or he would have been talking about Cruz's cooties. I like the new RubiOS. I can barely tell he is a robot now, although he did almost overheat with the "little Marco" comments. Probably needs a new heat-sink. I did think last night was Carson's best though.
Merge, I didn't watch the debate because I'm not the target audience. Taking a step back, Trump has essentially turned the debates into a reality show form of Survivor where the public is voting the losers off the island. He's completely turned the demographic audience (which is setting records) dramatically upside down. The so-called news media has been suckered into it purely for the purpose of self-serving ratings. Does anyone take these moderators seriously anymore?
The Republican establishment looks like idiots by trotting Romney out there and telling the voters they are stupid. They've just galvanized Trump's support even more. He really has been masterful in how he's manipulated the campaign. And the Dem and Rep establishment keeps using traditional weaponry and trying to protect their "brands" which the public is angry and weary of....playing right into his hands. You can see where his messaging is going once he wins the nomination.
Kasich is the only real serious candidate on either side, and fortunately, he's still on the island. Wouldn't be surprised to see that 49% go higher after next week.
The Republican establishment looks like idiots by trotting Romney out there and telling the voters they are stupid. They've just galvanized Trump's support even more. He really has been masterful in how he's manipulated the campaign. And the Dem and Rep establishment keeps using traditional weaponry and trying to protect their "brands" which the public is angry and weary of....playing right into his hands. You can see where his messaging is going once he wins the nomination.
Kasich is the only real serious candidate on either side, and fortunately, he's still on the island. Wouldn't be surprised to see that 49% go higher after next week.
I watched the debates and I thought they were entertaining. The Megan Fox Trump introduction was great I thought. I have to say I laughed quite a bit. While not Presidential I'm not sure anyone will ever not think of him as "little Marco" now. And that thing on Cruz's lip? What was that? Did it crawl back in on its own?
Kasich has been my favorite all along and I actually thought if there was a winner last night (it was not the American people or the three in the middle) it was him.
I think it might be too late though. The Repubs have to be kicking themselves for not attacking Trump much earlier. Now they are just giving Hillary an advantage. The whole process has been like something I have never seen before. Absolutely crazy! I still hope Trump unravels and they indict Hillary and we have someone else vs Bernie. I think its a sure bet that this would be the election for an independent to run and possibly win in the end.
Kasich has been my favorite all along and I actually thought if there was a winner last night (it was not the American people or the three in the middle) it was him.
I think it might be too late though. The Repubs have to be kicking themselves for not attacking Trump much earlier. Now they are just giving Hillary an advantage. The whole process has been like something I have never seen before. Absolutely crazy! I still hope Trump unravels and they indict Hillary and we have someone else vs Bernie. I think its a sure bet that this would be the election for an independent to run and possibly win in the end.
March 15th will be very big. Moreso on the Dem side. The media keeps trying to call the race over, but Bernie has the $ and plenty of delegates to keep playing this out. If he can get to more states that actually have significant amounts of people living in them (especially NY & NJ in June), things will shift greatly. He's polling better all the time, part. in some of the states that haven't come up yet.
I haven't watched any of the Republican Debates. They're too embarrassing. The world is laughing at us for these shameful displays. The Romney play is interesting and unexpected, to me at least. He's a loser who was already rejected once by the country, so I see no reason it wouldnt happen again. But I understand why the party is so desperate...Trump is polling around 10 points below Hillary nationally, and 17-19 points below Bernie. He would get destroyed.
I haven't watched any of the Republican Debates. They're too embarrassing. The world is laughing at us for these shameful displays. The Romney play is interesting and unexpected, to me at least. He's a loser who was already rejected once by the country, so I see no reason it wouldnt happen again. But I understand why the party is so desperate...Trump is polling around 10 points below Hillary nationally, and 17-19 points below Bernie. He would get destroyed.
Bernie hasn't a chance at all, and Romney was as predictable as can be. I have a hard time believing a guy like Trump can be so off the wall, but I guess he is. How about a Bernie / Trump ticket. All they have to do is build a wall around Wall St. What a messy mess.
Maybe Trump doesn't project as having the numbers now to win, but you can be sure most Trump supporters will not support Romney or another like him. Romney personifies why so many are fed up with the party. I think the repubs have to decide if they prefer keeping their dignity and surely losing with a replacement candidate, or run Trump and hope for the best.
Why do you say that? I'm not saying he has things locked up, but if you look at the poll numbers in the states vs. the delegate counts, he has a path. Am I missing something that you've seen, or are you just being cynical like everyone else?
The only reason Bernie does not have a chance to be the Dem nominee are those Super delegates which are picked by party leaders rather than by the voters and thus stacking the deck against Bern. Fact is that they have both won or had a standoff in just about the same amount of primaries. Also note Hillary's big wins are in states that never vote Democratic in the Fall.
Tom K
He definitely has a path since the voting is all proportional but he hasn't been connecting to the black voters for whatever reason.If he can't change that very soon, he won't be in it much longer. Massachusetts is a state he should have won, and I thought he would have done better in Virginia.
Fivethirtyeight has a nice delegate tracker showing how each candidate needs to perform in each state going forward. Sanders is below we he needed to be at this point.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/
Bobbie, I can appreciate your interest and passion for politics.
This Presidential election process which is not like anything I have ever seen and the emergence of Sanders leads me to a question for you. Technology and your generations mastery and leveraging it's use has created opportunities for ideas and causes to go viral and gain rapid support. Let's face it; you guys can organize a flash mob in 30 minutes.
Bernie has connected with the 18-30 year old segment, partially because his message resonates and partially because Hillary's or the Republican's hasn't. From my perspective it just seems like it's just Bernie trying to communicate, but where are the people in leadership in your generation to help promote his message. Where are the Millennial politicians or generational leaders? For instance, where is your Jane Fonda, Jerry Rubin, Tom Hayden, Julian Bond?
The common theme this year is the outsider and it seems like the perfect environment for someone younger and able to communicate and leverage the power of social media and discontent to emerge either on their own or supporting a candidate like Bernie. Especially since Obama capitalized so well on social media to get out the Millennial vote back in 2008. Interested in your thoughts.
Hopefullt those super delegates stay out of it like they did in '08. Hillary had most of those all locked up early also, but they switched to Obama once it was clear he was ahead in the regular delegate count & honored the voice of the actual voters. I just hope Bernie gets ahead of Hillary by June. Guess we'll see.
Bernie has had a lot of vocal support from people like Killer Mike, Susan Sarandon, Seth McFarlane, Mark Ruffalo.. among many others... Different era now than the one from previous generations so it is hard to compare, but there are influential people out there supporting his message.
Hillary will have serious problems in the general election. She has the delegate count and thus the nomination just about wrapped up yet she keeps losing Primaries/Caucuses (lost 3 of 4 this weekend). And especially in states that Dems usually win. Elections are decided by swing voters/independents and Hillary's weakness with these voters could prove fatal in November. Independent voters generally do not vote for candidates that they do not like regardless of issues.
PS: I now suspect that trump will not get the GOP nomination. Too many forces against him. If the eventual candidate is more mainstream (brokered convention?) I think Hillary may well sink in November.
Tom K
PS: I now suspect that trump will not get the GOP nomination. Too many forces against him. If the eventual candidate is more mainstream (brokered convention?) I think Hillary may well sink in November.
Tom K
Tough call at this point. Turnout may be an all time low if that happens. Trump supporters are going to be furious is Trump is leading (which he will be) in delegates and the nomination goes to someone else.
If Trump is on the ticket, turnout may be a record high from both Trump supporters and votes against Trump. There is also a chance he runs as a 3rd party candidate.
Actually the congresswoman from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard resigned from the DNC and is now pushing against Billary and for Bernie. She makes some great points implying that Billary is a war monger and is forcing politics of regime change in Syria that are not working. She is a veteran and was in the army I believe and is making a strong case for Bernie and against Clinton's record.
What is consistent about the election is that both party organizations (Repubs and Dems) are not in touch with the electorate at all. They are simply not getting it. Major disconnects with Hillary and the voters and the Repub nominees they thought would do well like Bush and the voters. People are tired of the BS and both parties continue to be more interested in pushing their interests than that of the people.
My fantasy dream is that Trumps plan all along was to blow Jeb, Marco and Ted out of the water and at a brokered convention asks his delegates to go over and free the way to Kasich. Kasich had no chance against the bloated field that had lots of PAC money.
At this point if Kasich got the Rep nomination he would win in a landslide. I know it's far fetched but it's my dream and I'm entitled to it
At this point if Kasich got the Rep nomination he would win in a landslide. I know it's far fetched but it's my dream and I'm entitled to it
New ABC poll, Trump at 34%.
I was actually listening to a fivethirtyeight podcast this morning and they pretty much echoed exactly what I had been saying. Trump is getting 34% of the vote before people dropped out and after people dropped out. They mentioned that 49% poll and said it is wrong.
Trump has been under performing his polls of late. If that happens in Florida and Ohio, he will effectively be blocked from winning the nomination outright.
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Latest poll (Huffington Post combining multiple polls) for Florida:
Donald Trump 40.9%
Marco Rubio 26.1%
Ted Cruz 16.5%
John Kasich 9.2%
He should sweep Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii today and I saw a poll last night that has him winning New York in a landslide. Didn't know "538", whoever they are, are poll experts....
Donald Trump 40.9%
Marco Rubio 26.1%
Ted Cruz 16.5%
John Kasich 9.2%
He should sweep Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii today and I saw a poll last night that has him winning New York in a landslide. Didn't know "538", whoever they are, are poll experts....
Nate Silver of 538 is one of, if not the most influential polling analyst in politics.
Trump is clearly leading in a lot of states but there are recent important trends that he is under-performing his polls and voters who decide within a few days of actually voting are typically not voting for Trump.
Trump can win Michigan but the state is proportional so the goal for the rest of the field is to get above 20% to pull delegates away from Trump. Trump hasn't been winning in the proportions he would need to win to get the nomination.
He can still win but he is facing the entire party trying to block him. If Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will have a hard time winning going forward. If Rubio makes up the difference in Florida, Trump will not get the delegates needed.
Trump is clearly leading in a lot of states but there are recent important trends that he is under-performing his polls and voters who decide within a few days of actually voting are typically not voting for Trump.
Trump can win Michigan but the state is proportional so the goal for the rest of the field is to get above 20% to pull delegates away from Trump. Trump hasn't been winning in the proportions he would need to win to get the nomination.
He can still win but he is facing the entire party trying to block him. If Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will have a hard time winning going forward. If Rubio makes up the difference in Florida, Trump will not get the delegates needed.
Either Trump is going to have the delegates for the nomination or the majority of them, and up until this point, he's acted about as "Un-Presidential" as a candidate can AND he has the Rep and Dem establishment fighting him, the news media, Hollywood and every comedian. I don't get it either, but I'm not his target demographic. Florida is winner take all as is Ohio...those two primaries will dictate the race from there. I don't see how Rubio makes up that difference in a week. Kasich is kind of curious, because if he takes Ohio, he might pick up some steam if Rubio drops out after losing Florida, Ohio and everything else.
538 is the most accurate polling service that there is. Last election in 2012 they picked all 50 states accurately & i believe in 2008 they had 49 out of 50. I'm really surprised that you never heard of them or Nate Silver.
TK
Have heard of the name Nate Silver but I don't really spend much time if any following polling services and their accuracy records. Just don't see Trump losing any steam at this point based on results.
I guess we will know better tonight if Trump has lost any steam from the recent ganging up to stop him.
TK
Rubio may drop before Florida if his poll numbers don't pick up. His supporters would likely go to Kasich then Cruz then Trump, so if he isn't looking like he will get Florida, the party will cede Florida and the "block Trump" strategy would be for him to back out before the winner takes all states.. If he is still in it for Florida, it will be because his internal polling is showing him with a chance to win the state.
