Tweet perspective on Coronavirius and health care

[shu09]

economic toll is short term. Human toll is permanent. The economic toll is to prevent a death toll in the millions.

yep, we just aren’t going to agree on this.

in any case my point about Trumps gamble was that the virus wouldn’t impact us... clearly it has.

The economic toll will also be long term. Millions of people have lost their livelihoods and source of income because of this two month shutdown. Some of them may never get that back.

I don't think there would have been millions of deaths if we had kept business as usual, temporarily halted international travel while simply requesting that people keep their distance during this as well, rather than mandating closures and killing certain business. Sure, some people would be affected and die from the virus, but I don't think that's worth the economic livelihood of the millions of our citizens who would survive the virus if they got it.

 

[Bobbie Solo]

So assuming the fatality rate holds true at around 1.5% - you are talking about a minimum of 500k people dying?

Around 100k will die and we shut down our economy and are spending trillions of dollars to keep us somewhat moving while we all stay home so the virus doesn't grow to the numbers you are talking about and you don't think it hit us hard?

I honestly just don't understand that position at all.

Lack of empathy & pure, unbridled selfishness is a key component to right wing ideology. Only once something directly affects them do they maybe wake up & take a thoughtful position on something. Easy examples are Dick Cheney's views on gay marriage bc he has a gay daughter, or Francesca finally turning on Trump this week b/c this crisis might actually affect his little fiefdom.

 

[Bobbie Solo]

Remember when I posted the divert link a week ago and got a lecture about how I don't know know anything because he has friends at the regional hospitals? I try to bring facts for people to look at and interpret, not name drop so everyone knows how important I am.

What, you don't think it's cool to be a self-important ghoul in the midst of an international crisis? I mean, lying about all the cool, influential people you golf with...and lying about all the salt of the earth Hispanics I know that love Trump!...that's all well & good. But let's ramp it up to impress my other out of touch elitist friends on the Rivals board while people are dying everywhere!

 

[knowknow456]

Not going to play your hypothetical game

I'll play.

A conservative estimate is 90,000 deaths. A typical flu season is 35,000 deaths. H1N1 was 70,000.

My friend has the virus. His son, immunocompromised, has it as well. Both are sick but will most likely pull through.

A close relative, who I would classify as a second line health care worker, has cried in my (electronic) presence over the stress of caring for the living and the dying.

A more distant relative, whom I love, has lost two close relatives on her husband's side of the family. I grieve for her, although I do not know the deceased.

Another friend has a brother who is a front line worker. His boss has it and his immediate co-worker is infected.The man has a wife and three kids. He goes to work every day.

I am afraid there will be more stories. Eventually everyone will have stories like this (if they don't already have them). It is upsetting and I won't shrug it off just because 99% of the people didn't get it.

 

[HALL85]

What, you don't think it's cool to be a self-important ghoul in the midst of an international crisis? I mean, lying about all the cool, influential people you golf with...and lying about all the salt of the earth Hispanics I know that love Trump!...that's all well & good. But let's ramp it up to impress my other out of touch elitist friends on the Rivals board while people are dying everywhere!

Ah the angry elf is posting again! Once again, zero substance....you are consistent.

 

[HALL85]

What defines hard for you?

In 2 weeks there have been 280,000 new cases and 8,000 deaths and it is still very early for this virus.
Can you quantify how many people need to die in the united states to think this hit us hard?

Personally I think a virus that is going to kill over 100k people considering we shut down most of the country means it hit us pretty damn hard.

Merge, I’ll respond because I know we can have sensible discussions and disagreements. I’m not going to estimate fatalities, but taking your number of 100,000. We are dealing with a more contagious version of the flu which kills about 60-70k each year with an available vaccine that is usually 20-80% effective assuming they get the right strain. We know there is no vaccine for COVID but hopefully there will for the next season of it reappears. We will have time to go back and assess what could been done differently and debate it then (for instance, if an aggressive containment strategy deployed nationally in late January/early February,

The reality is that the common flu, opioid/heroin addiction, alcoholism and suicides kill in that 40-60,000 EACH every year. Either we share the same outrage for each of these illnesses, (because we can reduce these numbers with draconian steps), or do what we can that makes economic and social sense and accept it.

You and I may not like it, But the role of our leaders is to balance all of those issues when making decisions. The overriding decision with COVID has been to manage the capacity of our healthcare system. We are managing this to avoid a situation like Italy.

We all have sympathy for the people that are on the front lines and dealing with this. I wonder how many of these clowns have actually been in a hospital in the last 30 days.

You and I have our disagreements, but you’re a smart guy and you always come prepared. I respect that.

 

[Merge]

Merge, I’ll respond because I know we can have sensible discussions and disagreements. I’m not going to estimate fatalities, but taking your number of 100,000. We are dealing with a more contagious version of the flu which kills about 60-70k each year with an available vaccine that is usually 20-80% effective assuming they get the right strain. We know there is no vaccine for COVID but hopefully there will for the next season of it reappears. We will have time to go back and assess what could been done differently and debate it then (for instance, if an aggressive containment strategy deployed nationally in late January/early February,

The reality is that the common flu, opioid/heroin addiction, alcoholism and suicides kill in that 40-60,000 EACH every year. Either we share the same outrage for each of these illnesses, (because we can reduce these numbers with draconian steps), or do what we can that makes economic and social sense and accept it.

You and I may not like it, But the role of our leaders is to balance all of those issues when making decisions. The overriding decision with COVID has been to manage the capacity of our healthcare system. We are managing this to avoid a situation like Italy.

We all have sympathy for the people that are on the front lines and dealing with this. I wonder how many of these clowns have actually been in a hospital in the last 30 days.

You and I have our disagreements, but you’re a smart guy and you always come prepared. I respect that.

But that 100k number is considering all of the shut down orders and social distancing etc. without them the estimates were significantly higher With potential into the millions depending on the model.

It’s not even a debate in my head. If we have the opportunity to save hundreds of thousands of lives. Do it.
It might hurt our economy? Basic income until it’s over.

I really don’t care about the cost to the federal government at all in a time like this.

I’m still optimistic about coming out of this, and I think the cost(whatever it is) will have been worth it.

 

[HALL85]

But that 100k number is considering all of the shut down orders and social distancing etc. without them the estimates were significantly higher With potential into the millions depending on the model.

It’s not even a debate in my head. If we have the opportunity to save hundreds of thousands of lives. Do it.
It might hurt our economy? Basic income until it’s over.

I really don’t care about the cost to the federal government at all in a time like this.

I’m still optimistic about coming out of this, and I think the cost(whatever it is) will have been worth it.

Exactly. If the 100k is right, then the ratcheting up of restrictions on will have been modulated to limit it to that. Ultimately managing hospital capacity is the biggest variable to keeping the number down.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Ah the angry elf is posting again! Once again, zero substance....you are consistent.

You really must be a miserable person approaching 60

 

[HALL85]

You really must be a miserable person approaching 60

I’m well over 60 dude. Every day is a blessing. Enjoy the journey and pay it forward.

Angry and mean spirited is no way to go through life when you’re that young.

 

[shu09]

I’m well over 60 dude. Every day is a blessing. Enjoy the journey and pay it forward.

Angry and mean spirited is no way to go through life when you’re that young.

A lot of far left folks like Solo and Shoreguy are, unfortunately, angry and mean spirited most of the time. They think the "system" actively works against them.

It's no way to live life. Be thankful for what you have, not jealous of what you don't, and appreciate every day because you never know when it will end.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

A lot of far left folks like Solo and Shoreguy are, unfortunately, angry and mean spirited most of the time. They think the "system" actively works against them.

It's no way to live life. Be thankful for what you have, not jealous of what you don't, and appreciate every day because you never know when it will end.

You dont know my politcal agenda or whom i have voted for or my reasoning behind it...i respect solos pov and how he is for progressives but i dont neccessarily agree with it all nor would i consider myself far left

 

[shu09]

You dont know my politcal agenda or whom i have voted for or my reasoning behind it...i respect solos pov and how he is for progressives but i dont neccessarily agree with it all nor would i consider myself far left

That's true, I don't know. But you seem to be more aligned with Solo than anyone else on these boards at least.

As for me, I have voted for Democrats most of my voting life. 2x Obama voter, didn't vote for Trump or Clinton. Looking back, the only Republicans I've voted for have been NJ governor (Christie and Guadagno).

 

[HALL85]

You dont know my politcal agenda or whom i have voted for or my reasoning behind it...i respect solos pov and how he is for progressives but i dont neccessarily agree with it all nor would i consider myself far left

Solo has a POV? Is non-stop ranting and insults a POV? Enlighten me.

 

[Pirata]

The reality is that the common flu, opioid/heroin addiction, alcoholism and suicides kill in that 40-60,000 EACH every year. Either we share the same outrage for each of these illnesses, (because we can reduce these numbers with draconian steps), or do what we can that makes economic and social sense and accept it.

But that 100k number is considering all of the shut down orders and social distancing etc. without them the estimates were significantly higher With potential into the millions depending on the model.

With a brief Google search I saw enough to suggest that 150,000 people die each year from lung cancer and 90% of those are attributed to cigarette smoke.

Best I can tell we are not working on a vaccine for cigarette smoke and that number will continue in the foreseeable future. I also don't see cigarette being banned.

Auto accidents are around 40,000 per year.

As Merge highlighted, The extreme projections of Covid death were based on doing nothing.

And so the mitigation efforts for Covid gets us into the range of "accepted death" that we are accustomed, setting aside world wars.

The tough question is, for example: If a two month shutdown gets you 100,000 and 1 month gets you 150,000 do you settle for the 150K. Just an example. I can image the cold hard debates going on in the various task forces around the country, federal, state, and local.

Eisenhower went through the same calculations when planning D-Day. Truman made a tough call when he dropped the bombs.

 

[Merge]

With a brief Google search I saw enough to suggest that 150,000 people die each year from lung cancer and 90% of those are attributed to cigarette smoke.

Best I can tell we are not working on a vaccine for cigarette smoke and that number will continue in the foreseeable future. I also don't see cigarette being banned.

Auto accidents are around 40,000 per year.

As Merge highlighted, The extreme projections of Covid death were based on doing nothing.

And so the mitigation efforts for Covid gets us into the range of "accepted death" that we are accustomed, setting aside world wars.

The tough question is, for example: If a two month shutdown gets you 100,000 and 1 month gets you 150,000 do you settle for the 150K. Just an example. I can image the cold hard debates going on in the various task forces around the country, federal, state, and local.

Eisenhower went through the same calculations when planning D-Day. Truman made a tough call when he dropped the bombs.

I’m sure that is part of the discussion. If they could identify a point where they knew there would be additional loss of life but they would be able to limit to a reasonable threshold, I would imagine they would probably do it.

That would probably require some kind of breakthrough with either an effective treatment or a fast tracked vaccine?

 

[HALL85]

Great interview with Michael Dowling, President of Northwell Health in NY on Face The Nation. Guy is one of the best. No nonsense, runs a great shop and shows compassion. Said survival rate on ventilator is 20%, the have no supply issues (their supply chain has been historically outstanding), acknowledged healthcare workers were being taxed, but were holding up great and said we should be celebrating those that are recovering and doing well. A policy isn’t worth anything if you don’t put the time in and prepare. Burden falls on hospital leadership. When the conditions permit, suggested we should hug a healthcare worker. Refreshing.

 

[Pirata]

That would probably require some kind of breakthrough with either an effective treatment or a fast tracked vaccine?

IMO the vaccine is for next season's virus cycle. My understanding of the Influenza vaccine/shot is that it only attempts to prevent, not cure. I suspect it will be the same for Covid.

Everything I am hearing says we should be hitting peak this week and then it will start to reduce. I believe that will be a function of the preventive measures and the warm weather.

My comments were more about the current situation and some of the discussion in this thread about how far do we go with preventive measures that have a high economic impact.

Lifting the stay at home order will cause people to die that would survive if the order is not lifted. While every life is precious, I think the decision when to lift will fall into the "acceptable casualty" decision category.

Making those decisions are not for the faint of heart.

 

[HALL85]

And those deaths would skyrocket if the hospitals got overwhelmed. It’s great that we can add hundreds of beds in these hot spots, but your chance of coming off a ventilator in the Javits Center would be far worse than in a actual hospital.

 

[HALL85]

Great interview with Michael Dowling, President of Northwell Health in NY on Face The Nation. Guy is one of the best. No nonsense, runs a great shop and shows compassion. Said survival rate on ventilator is 20%, the have no supply issues (their supply chain has been historically outstanding), acknowledged healthcare workers were being taxed, but were holding up great and said we should be celebrating those that are recovering and doing well. A policy isn’t worth anything if you don’t put the time in and prepare. Burden falls on hospital leadership. When the conditions permit, suggested we should hug a healthcare worker. Refreshing.

Dowling interview

 

[Section112]

You really must be a miserable person approaching 60

Can I ask what that statement means? Are you making a generalization about the generation of men approaching 60?

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Can I ask what that statement means? Are you making a generalization about the generation of men approaching 60?

Nope, not a generalization to all...Hall85 has targeted me in replies over time here across multple boards

 

[Merge]

Everything I am hearing says we should be hitting peak this week and then it will start to reduce. I believe that will be a function of the preventive measures and the warm weather.

My comments were more about the current situation and some of the discussion in this thread about how far do we go with preventive measures that have a high economic impact.

Lifting the stay at home order will cause people to die that would survive if the order is not lifted. While every life is precious, I think the decision when to lift will fall into the "acceptable casualty" decision category.

Agree on those points. I'm just thinking about what would the circumstances be that allows us to get the economy moving while preventing a 2nd wave of a similar outbreak. I'm hoping there will be some kind of medical breakthrough (testing, treatment or vaccine) that allows that to happen because the last thing I'd want is for things to get normalized and it starts spreading again and we need to shut everything down.

 

[Save Continental]

Yesterday, weeks after saying this will bleed "meaningfully into May", the Gov noted that he believes this will bleed "meaningfully into the summer." I know some of you out there are big fans of context, so I'd like to gather some. Wondering if anyone heard the full quote, or exactly what he was referring to? We should be long over any hospitalization crisis by that point.

 

[Merge]

Dowling interview

View embedded media

The 20% success rate once intubated was eye opening. Didn't realize it was that low.

 

[shu09]

Yesterday, weeks after saying this will bleed "meaningfully into May", the Gov noted that he believes this will bleed "meaningfully into the summer." I know some of you out there are big fans of context, so I'd like to gather some. Wondering if anyone heard the full quote, or exactly what he was referring to? We should be long over any hospitalization crisis by that point.

The Gov has bad information. All the models say this will really taper off in NJ by May 1. The next two weeks should be the toughest.

 

[Section112]

The 20% success rate once intubated was eye opening. Didn't realize it was that low.

I've spoken to a Dr and Nurse involved in treating Covid 19 patients and they are seeing slightly better results but not much (30-35% approximately). They see the vent as very bad news for the patient and are trying to do everything to avoid getting to that phase with patients. You have to hope the 20% improves but Docs see the best treatment opportunities before the vent is necessary to turn this around.

 

[HALL85]

The 20% success rate once intubated was eye opening. Didn't realize it was that low.

That's why I respect Dowling and his leadership style. Tells you what you need to know, puts both positive and negative news in perspective and answers directly. No BS.

 

[Save Continental]

The Gov has bad information. All the models say this will really taper off in NJ by May 1. The next two weeks should be the toughest.

That's what I'm expecting too. I'm just wondering if he's referring to keeping certain places/events/businesses shut down, etc. I don't think he's referring to cases/deaths running rampant. I actually have no idea what he meant, but without hearing the question and full quote I don't have any context.

 

[Merge]

The Gov has bad information. All the models say this will really taper off in NJ by May 1. The next two weeks should be the toughest.

He wasn't talking about the number of cases or hospitals. The question was about preseason NFL games and his response was basically we don't know what things will look like and that things will not be back to normal before the summer. He's not wrong.

 

[Section112]

That's what I'm expecting too. I'm just wondering if he's referring to keeping certain places/events/businesses shut down, etc. I don't think he's referring to cases/deaths running rampant. I actually have no idea what he meant, but without hearing the question and full quote I don't have any context.

Relistically I think May 15th will be the earliest for opening up NJ again and the open will probably be gradual.

 

[Merge]

That's what I'm expecting too. I'm just wondering if he's referring to keeping certain places/events/businesses shut down, etc. I don't think he's referring to cases/deaths running rampant. I actually have no idea what he meant, but without hearing the question and full quote I don't have any context.

Here ya go.

BLITZER: Well, do you think this is going to go on through the summer? You've got two NFL teams that play football in New Jersey, as you know, the New York Jets, the New York Giants. You think they're going to start playing some exhibition games, preseason games in August, because the season starts in September?

MURPHY: My crystal ball is not giving me a direct answer for that yet. This is certainly going to be a huge challenge for us, April through May, there's no question, and the evidence is increasingly showing this is going to spill meaningfully into the summer. That could impact, obviously, the NFL season. It will impact a whole lot of lives. This is the fight of our lives. None of us have gone through this before. We have to think of it that way. We have to treat it that way. It's nothing short of war and it's no time to panic, but it is certainly likewise no time for business as usual.

 

[Save Continental]

Thanks Merge.

Saw a tweet somewhere from @shupat08 that may 18 was looked at as a potential re-open date for schools. Not sure I can see that right now, and since the shutdown I have always assumed school was done for the year.

If anyone hears through the grapevine what the State is planning for the remainder of the school year, I'd be interested in reading it.

 

[HALL85]

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-s...ing-5e2ea882-1883-4a1f-855c-0c74b281d4f3.html

Good summary in Axios this morning on the conversation that needs to be happening about reopening the country. Delicate balance, but there is significant risk (lives/dollars) by going too fast or too slow. Tough decisions.

 

[shupat08]

Thanks Merge.

Saw a tweet somewhere from @shupat08 that may 18 was looked at as a potential re-open date for schools. Not sure I can see that right now, and since the shutdown I have always assumed school was done for the year.

If anyone hears through the grapevine what the State is planning for the remainder of the school year, I'd be interested in reading it.

LOL. Not a tweet, but I posted that's what I was hoping.

Seems like we may be shut down til beginning of July. Belmar is having no public events until that date as of now.

 

[shu09]

The end of this is really when you're going to see government abuse and overreach. Murphy has done an ok job but I think he's going to start feeling the heat in about three weeks if he doesn't begin relaxing restrictions.

 

[Merge]

Thanks Merge.

Saw a tweet somewhere from @shupat08 that may 18 was looked at as a potential re-open date for schools. Not sure I can see that right now, and since the shutdown I have always assumed school was done for the year.

If anyone hears through the grapevine what the State is planning for the remainder of the school year, I'd be interested in reading it.

Saw an interview with Scott Gottlieb pop up on twitter saying schools will not reopen this year. Expects most summer camps to be closed as well.

 

[HALL85]

A bit anecdotal but encouraging. I spoke with two large systems today and they have actually seen good results with Chloroquine with several patients being discharged. Both also have had an increase in COVID admissions, but their overall census is still below normal since they had stopped elective surgeries and diverted other non critical ER visits to ambulatory care centers, etc.. One system had actually laid off a large number of staff two weeks ago and closed three units and they were still closed.

 

[Section112]

NJ Cases starting to decline - https://njbmagazine.com/njb-news-now/njs-day-over-day-covid-19-new-case-growth-rate-is-declining/

Very, very early but hopefully this will be the continued direction.

 

[Merge]

NJ Cases starting to decline - https://njbmagazine.com/njb-news-now/njs-day-over-day-covid-19-new-case-growth-rate-is-declining/

Very, very early but hopefully this will be the continued direction.

Yeah, this should be about the time where the new cases starts to decrease because of social distancing. The rate of increase in NY is on the decline as well which is great news.

One thing that concerns me is that NJ is the highest positive test / total test ratio at almost 50%.
Really hope that we can expand testing and that number starts to drop.