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Tweet perspective on Coronavirius and health care

All true, I have not spent 30 years in pharma, had lunch at the Captal Grille in DC (it was full!) with very important doctors, or met with infectious disease doctors about testing. (Ironically we both have a South Korean dry cleaner. My guy does dry cleaning but yours is the next ambassador to South Korea, but that is a story for another day).

Pretty early on my perspective was this was bigger than - "Common sense balanced with living your life" as you so glibly said. But hey, even experts are wrong, right? And if the above named hospitals are full, the good news is the ones you called are doing great!

If you have real facts to share, we would welcome them. If you want to tell us stories, that's ok too, but lets not pretend they are facts.
I just proved that you don't know know what your talking about. Your "facts" just proved what I've been reporting from the regions hospitals.

And I never said this wasn't a serious disease, so try as you will, you've failed once again on your silly narrative.

An update this morning, (although I doubt you care): COVID-19 admissions this morning: RWJ-NB (75), Overlook (170)and St. Barnabas (153) and Newark BI (124)... (those are "big" hospitals, for your information). Only a handful are in ICU's in each hospital though. Hospital strategies are working as they cleared the system and have beds available to treat, monitor and then send home, once they identify that patient is stable.
 
just because it wasnt MADE in a lab doesnt mean it wasnt studied and got out of a lab. crazy how media is going to no ends to try and disprove it. trying at all costs to deflect.

I get what you are saying. There are circumstances which make a theory of Chinese error or even attack possible.

But, we should be able to take some comfort hearing that it was not man made / man modified, which means this was at the very least capable of being produced in nature.

Unfortunately, I don't think there can ever be 100% certainty that it was not being researched and released (intentionally or unintentionally) versus transmitted naturally to a human through an animal host. Spreading that theory to mentally unstable people doesn't lead to anything good. A guy yesterday was arrested for stabbing a family of 4 at a sams club because he thought they were Chinese and spreading the virus.

I think we should still investigate the origin, but the media should downplay the theory that this came from a lab until there is supporting evidence that it was.
 
An update this morning, (although I doubt you care): COVID-19 admissions this morning: RWJ-NB (75), Overlook (170)and St. Barnabas (153) and Newark BI (124)... (those are "big" hospitals, for your information).

Do you know what those numbers were a week ago and what their capacity is?

A little over a week ago there were 1,600 people hospitalized in NY. That is now over 13k and growing about 2k per day. We've been social distancing for about 2 weeks now and given the incubation period and time from symptoms to when someone would need to be hospitalized, it would seem like this is the week where our hospitals in NJ will see the biggest impact.
 
Do you know what those numbers were a week ago and what their capacity is?

A little over a week ago there were 1,600 people hospitalized in NY. That is now over 13k and growing about 2k per day. We've been social distancing for about 2 weeks now and given the incubation period and time from symptoms to when someone would need to be hospitalized, it would seem like this is the week where our hospitals in NJ will see the biggest impact.

I've seen April 1 - 13 will be NJs "peak"
 
I get what you are saying. There are circumstances which make a theory of Chinese error or even attack possible.

But, we should be able to take some comfort hearing that it was not man made / man modified, which means this was at the very least capable of being produced in nature.

Unfortunately, I don't think there can ever be 100% certainty that it was not being researched and released (intentionally or unintentionally) versus transmitted naturally to a human through an animal host. Spreading that theory to mentally unstable people doesn't lead to anything good. A guy yesterday was arrested for stabbing a family of 4 at a sams club because he thought they were Chinese and spreading the virus.

I think we should still investigate the origin, but the media should downplay the theory that this came from a lab until there is supporting evidence that it was.
Wow thats terrible. Imagine if other countries treated every american as though they were donald trump...
 
Do you know what those numbers were a week ago and what their capacity is?

A little over a week ago there were 1,600 people hospitalized in NY. That is now over 13k and growing about 2k per day. We've been social distancing for about 2 weeks now and given the incubation period and time from symptoms to when someone would need to be hospitalized, it would seem like this is the week where our hospitals in NJ will see the biggest impact.
Merge, unfortunately I don’t. I’m just trying to share the data that I get when I do speak to folks at these hospitals...trying to be considerate of their time. Hospital census is still manageable and ICU data continues to be in the “handful” range which is a good sign for all of us.

It’s still a moving target, but the most important thing by far, is having capacity ready for any scenario. There is no big wave anticipated that I can see for this week. Not an elegant data point, but they have cut orders for services we provide, which is tied to volume.
 
The answer to this question would provide context. Context is important, so I am told.

I believe you received your answer.

lol, quality trolling.

That said, I am appreciative of any info on NJ hospitals. It's hard to fine online.
I've been using this site - https://covidtracking.com/data/

NJ hospitalized isn't listed but NY is growing at a really alarming rate Over 5,800 new admissions and almost 600 deaths in the last 2 days. Can't imagine what the nurses and doctors are going through in the harder hit areas right now.
 
lol, quality trolling.

That said, I am appreciative of any info on NJ hospitals. It's hard to fine online.
I've been using this site - https://covidtracking.com/data/

NJ hospitalized isn't listed but NY is growing at a really alarming rate Over 5,800 new admissions and almost 600 deaths in the last 2 days. Can't imagine what the nurses and doctors are going through in the harder hit areas right now.
Did you see the graph that Dr. Birx showed yesterday of all 50 states? NJ and NY were off the charts. By the way just got this data this morning on RWJ NB campus:

Census: 73%
Total +COVID admissions- 119
Critical care- 42 with 4 PUI
Vented- 34
Deaths- 3

Large systems are seeing more admissions but managing the volume. We are fortunate to have several large systems in NJ that cover large geographies and can shift resources where needed. Harder to do from one independent hospital to another.

I can’t guarantee anything, but if there is a specific hospital or system you need information, just let me know.
 
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lol, quality trolling.

That said, I am appreciative of any info on NJ hospitals. It's hard to fine online.
I've been using this site - https://covidtracking.com/data/

NJ hospitalized isn't listed but NY is growing at a really alarming rate Over 5,800 new admissions and almost 600 deaths in the last 2 days. Can't imagine what the nurses and doctors are going through in the harder hit areas right now.

Thanks for the link. I will look at it later but it seems pretty good.

Honestly, trolling isn't my top priority here. At the risk of repetition, my point remains the same - I disagreed with his approach two weeks ago and I disagree with him now. This is a serious issue he chose not to take seriously.

If you think it might help, the website I referenced in the other thread shows real time surges at NJ hospitals. You can read the source data and form your own opinions.
 
Did you see the graph that Dr. Birx showed yesterday of all 50 states? NJ and NY were off the charts. By the way just got this data this morning on RWJ NB campus:

Census: 73%
Total +COVID admissions- 119
Critical care- 42 with 4 PUI
Vented- 34
Deaths- 3

Large systems are seeing more admissions but managing the volume. We are fortunate to have several large systems in NJ that cover large geographies and can shift resources where needed. Harder to do from one independent hospital to another.

I can’t guarantee anything, but if there is a specific hospital or system you need information, just let me know.

Nothing I need. Just interested to see the data and what is happening in the area and around the country, and looking for signs of when things will start to improve.
 
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I read an axios article stating that this was one of the key projections that the WH Covid team is using...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Yes, this is one of the key projections. I posted the link along with a few others in the Dr. Fauci thread. For the record, Monday the projected deaths by August 4 was 81,000, Tuesday was 83, 000 and today is 93,000. We are still moving in the wrong direction. Hope you are staying safe.
 
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I've been checking this out too. The good news is, here in New Jersey, this will all be over in about a month if these projections hold true.

Hopefully so. I've been thinking May 18th for when NJ starts schools etc up again.
 
I've been checking this out too. The good news is, here in New Jersey, this will all be over in about a month if these projections hold true.
Yeah but how about travel to from neighboring states for work/business?
 
Hopefully so. I've been thinking May 18th for when NJ starts schools etc up again.

you a teacher? Teachers in my town (Fanwood / scotch plains) were apparently told to have online lesson plans through may 15th.

I’m hopeful we will be ok by then.
 
you a teacher? Teachers in my town (Fanwood / scotch plains) were apparently told to have online lesson plans through may 15th.

I’m hopeful we will be ok by then.

Teacher. We were done March 13th. We have 8 weeks of lessons done and Spring Break is this coming week.

And I've heard some states are contemplating having their students come back on a 2 times a week basis. Half the students Monday and Wednesday and half Tuesday and Thursday with distance learning Friday.
 
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Nothing I need. Just interested to see the data and what is happening in the area and around the country, and looking for signs of when things will start to improve.

I can't seem to find a place where we can understand hospital bed/ICU capacity in NJ on a granular level. The best we can do is look at the projection the White House is using. This morning it says peak capacity will be April 8 and we will have a shortage of 1,000 ICU beds (more or less)

The conditions on the ground (so to speak) do not support that estimate. I have been watching the Hospital divert list posted by the state for four days now. Most of the hospitals listed are either small or near hot spots. As Hall85 said, none of the major hospitals have appeared on this list so far. If a true surge were happening, eventually the big hospitals would wind up on this list as well, at least from time to time.

It is unclear (to us) what capacity was beforehand and what it is now but we can watch those two data points in the days ahead to see if, in fact, our hospital systems are becoming overwhelmed. So far, we can be cautiously positive.
 
I read an axios article stating that this was one of the key projections that the WH Covid team is using...

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Florida deserves attention but check out Alabama on this website. Although I have reservations about the ability to accurately forecast available bed space, the site is projecting a shortage of 21,000 hospital beds by April 17. If they are anywhere near correct, that has the potential to be catastrophic.
 
Florida deserves attention but check out Alabama on this website. Although I have reservations about the ability to accurately forecast available bed space, the site is projecting a shortage of 21,000 hospital beds by April 17. If they are anywhere near correct, that has the potential to be catastrophic.

Yeah, that's wild. But again, when you think the virus is a deep-state-democratic-chinese hoax and there's no reason to shut things down due to a little cold...
 
and then you have Georgia's governor saying we didn't know you could spread the virus without being symptomatic until YESTERDAY!!! Complete incompetence.
 
and then you have Georgia's governor saying we didn't know you could spread the virus without being symptomatic until YESTERDAY!!! Complete incompetence.
Democratic leaderahip at the state level smoking republican leadership during this
 
Democratic leaderahip at the state level smoking republican leadership during this

That is unfortunately true right now. Not because Dems are better leaders than republicans but because Republicans were afraid of contradicting Trump.
 
I didn't mean to bring up Alabama as a dog whistle for a political debate. Right now, I am focused exclusively on the pandemic and what is happening. I am concerned with how it plays out in Alabama if 7000 people wind up dying because of COVD-19.

I agree the Florida governor should have closed the beaches but realistically if the spring breakers were already there, they were just going to change to location of transmission from the beach to the hotel room. Personally, I would not have gone but everyone has a different risk tolerance.
 
Today we should pay attention to the new cases in Italy. Since hitting a peak of 6500 cases on March 21, they have been slowing trending downward. Yesterday was 4782 new cases. This is after three weeks of lockdown. It's a slow process on the back side of the peak.

Spain is now suffering the worst. They have as many total cases as Italy (~110,000) but their chart line is still consistently over 7500 new cases per day. The have not shown any sign of having reached their peak.
 
Democratic leaderahip at the state level smoking republican leadership during this

I think government as a whole has gone way too far at this point. Some reasonable restrictions have been put in place, but now you're seeing the economic toll and local governments/municipalities/associations/organizations are also digging in because they get in line like sheep behind the state and federal government. I mean, you have golf courses shut down, dog parks and recreational sites shut down. Newflash: You're not going to get the virus doing any of those activities. People need to exercise and get fresh air. They can do that safely doing those activities. Yet liquor stores are considered "essential." It's an absolute joke. In the future, I fear that these restrictive policies will be abused by politicians for lesser situations. That's the real long term threat, big government and big brother.

We need to reopen the economy by the end of this month, regardless of where the virus stands. Learn to live with it. Remember, it only kills 1-2% of those it infects, 80% of the cases are mild and those most severely affected often have an underlying condition that would make them vulnerable to a lot of illnesses. The government and media have scared people to no end. Remember, what you see on the news in certain hospitals is the worst of the worst cases. That is not happening everywhere. We cannot live our lives shutdown in fear over this.

The real failure here is hospitals, not government. How on earth do they not have the capacity to deal with epidemics? Do these administrations not plan for anything? Only 20% of these cases require hospitalization and they can't handle it. A massive failure.
 
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I think government as a whole has gone way too far at this point. Some reasonable restrictions have been put in place, but now you're seeing the economic toll and local governments/municipalities/associations/organizations are also digging in because they get in line like sheep behind the state and federal government. I mean, you have golf courses shut down, dog parks and recreational sites shut down. Newflash: You're not going to get the virus doing any of those activities. People need to exercise and get fresh air. They can do that safely doing those activities. Yet liquor stores are considered "essential." It's an absolute joke. In the future, I fear that these restrictive policies will be abused by politicians for lesser situations. That's the real long term threat, big government and big brother.

We need to reopen the economy by the end of this month, regardless of where the virus stands. Learn to live with it. Remember, it only kills 1-2% of those it infects, 80% of the cases are mild and those most severely affected often have an underlying condition that would make them vulnerable to a lot of illnesses. The government and media have scared people to no end. Remember, what you see on the news in certain hospitals is the worst of the worst cases. That is not happening everywhere. We cannot live our lives shutdown in fear over this.

The real failure here is hospitals, not government. How on earth do they not have the capacity to deal with epidemics? Do these administrations not plan for anything? Only 20% of these cases require hospitalization and they can't handle it. A massive failure.
Why liquor stores are esential...equates to this cant have tens to hundreds of people coming to hospital with alcohol withdrawal symptoms at this time....this has to be an awful time for substance abuse recovery patients as well...say hypothetically 50 percent of business comes back by june 1...what if you have workforce at these businesses that are hesistant to work live in person? Just fire them?
 
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I think government as a whole has gone way too far at this point. Some reasonable restrictions have been put in place, but now you're seeing the economic toll and local governments/municipalities/associations/organizations are also digging in because they get in line like sheep behind the state and federal government. I mean, you have golf courses shut down, dog parks and recreational sites shut down. Newflash: You're not going to get the virus doing any of those activities. People need to exercise and get fresh air. They can do that safely doing those activities. Yet liquor stores are considered "essential." It's an absolute joke. In the future, I fear that these restrictive policies will be abused by politicians for lesser situations. That's the real long term threat, big government and big brother.

We need to reopen the economy by the end of this month, regardless of where the virus stands. Learn to live with it. Remember, it only kills 1-2% of those it infects, 80% of the cases are mild and those most severely affected often have an underlying condition that would make them vulnerable to a lot of illnesses. The government and media have scared people to no end. Remember, what you see on the news in certain hospitals is the worst of the worst cases. That is not happening everywhere. We cannot live our lives shutdown in fear over this.

The real failure here is hospitals, not government. How on earth do they not have the capacity to deal with epidemics? Do these administrations not plan for anything? Only 20% of these cases require hospitalization and they can't handle it. A massive failure.


I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're not a person who would be vulnerable if you got it?

Bad take overall. We're estimating north of 100,000 deaths while shutting the country down... What number would warrant the current restrictions?

There is one thing we know that is effective right now in limiting the number of deaths. Stay home.
 
[QUOTE="shu09, post: 705025, member: 548" Remember, it only kills 1-2% of those it infects[/QUOTE]
1-2% is certainly good enough for me to put all the measures in place that the State has done. I guess we all have levels of fatality rates that we're comfortable with

Closing and opening of a few items you mentioned is certainly debatable (I see no reason why golf courses couldn't be opened), but not really a big deal at all in the grand scheme of things.
 
Why liquor stores are esential...equates to this cant have tens to hundreds of people coming to hospital with alcohol withdrawal symptoms at this time....this has to be an awful time for substance abuse recovery patients as well...say hypothetically 50 percent of business comes back by june 1...what if you have workforce at these businesses that are hesistant to work live in person? Just fire them?

There's a lesson here: Don't use drugs and don't drink in excess if you choose to do so. Then you don't have these problems. Pretty simple.

Life goes on. If you don't want to work at the office then you work from home if possible, take your sick/vacation time or hit the road and find somewhere else to work at an employer would would agree to your terms.
 
I'm going to go out on a limb and say you're not a person who would be vulnerable if you got it?

Bad take overall. We're estimating north of 100,000 deaths while shutting the country down... What number would warrant the current restrictions?

There is one thing we know that is effective right now in limiting the number of deaths. Stay home.

I'm as vulnerable as anyone else. I'm a human being. But that doesn't mean I'm going to cry in a corner and be scared of this thing.

I'm fine with these measures for the rest of this month. But after that, we need to come out of it.
 
I'm as vulnerable as anyone else. I'm a human being. But that doesn't mean I'm going to cry in a corner and be scared of this thing.

those most severely affected often have an underlying condition that would make them vulnerable to a lot of illnesses.

Are you in that group you referenced?

There are over 10 million Immunocompromised people in the US.
If you or a loved one is not one of them, I can see why you might think the restrictions are too much... but that is A LOT of people to put at risk.
 
Are you in that group you referenced?

There are over 10 million Immunocompromised people in the US.
If you or a loved one is not one of them, I can see why you might think the restrictions are too much... but that is A LOT of people to put at risk.

No, I do not have an underlying condition (as far as I know, LOL). I'm sure a few in my family would be considered at greater risk based on age and some other factors.
 
There's a lesson here: Don't use drugs and don't drink in excess if you choose to do so. Then you don't have these problems. Pretty simple.

Life goes on. If you don't want to work at the office then you work from home if possible, take your sick/vacation time or hit the road and find somewhere else to work at an employer would would agree to your terms.
You are what early to mid 30s based on your handle if you walked in 09, you need to expand your empathy level in life...you will be better for it down the road
 
You are what early to mid 30s based on your handle if you walked in 09, you need to expand your empathy level in life...you will be better for it down the road

Correct on age. Sorry, my life experiences have taught me that life isn't fair sometimes and people can avoid problems by not partaking in sub-optimal behavior to begin with.
 
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