Tweet perspective on Coronavirius and health care

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

China needs to pay for this when it's over. My theory still is that this is a man made virus that got out of the lab.

Its basically 1+1=2 at this point.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mani...y-lab-scientist-investigation-china-1.5307424

https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

That last one is from 2015!!

wake up sheeple!!

so when a respiratory virus breaks out in wuhan originating from a bat, people dont think it came from a lab where they were actively studying a dangerous respiratory virus from bats in wuhan??

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

Seems unlikely from what I have read about it so far.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

We can blame Chine for their lack of transparency though. I don't think it is wrong to say they tried to hide what was happening.

That said, not sure how much blame we can place when we were sitting here watching it happen and fail to do anything. The response here in the US was woefully inadequate and the politicians downplaying it may have done just as much if not more damage to US citizens than China's lack of transparency.

Yea ok, lets see what that publication had to say in 2015...

https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

 

[Merge]

so when a respiratory virus breaks out in wuhan originating from a bat, people dont think it came from a lab where they were actively studying a dangerous respiratory virus from bats in wuhan??

None of us here have any understanding of epidemiology, nor have the background to have an understanding of how scientists would be able to distinguish natural vs man made viruses. Our choice here is to believe our intuition or to believe the scientists.

To believe this was man made, you pretty much have to believe every scientist who has the education and experience to understand the virus is a part of the conspiracy to let China off the hook.

I understand the skepticism, but then you can also look at a wet market in Wuhan and think that it probably makes sense that a virus would originate there.

 

[Section112]

Like I said noone will ever know but you cannot rule out the possibility. More important we focus on stopping the spread/contagion.

There is an interesting book called Bitten regarding a theory on how Lyme disease was a manufactured illness created during the cold war on Plum Island and how it got out. It makes a lot of really interesting points and the coincidences are very believable. Maybe Tom mentioned it on another post a while back?

Let's just hope that some of the current scientific beliefs that this virus has not mutated significantly allows a vaccine that will protect most people from getting it in the future vs. the flu vaccine which is a guessing game every year.

 

[shu09]

To believe this was man made, you pretty much have to believe every scientist who has the education and experience to understand the virus is a part of the conspiracy to let China off the hook.

No, you don't.

 

[shu09]

Like I said noone will ever know but you cannot rule out the possibility. More important we focus on stopping the spread/contagion.

There is an interesting book called Bitten regarding a theory on how Lyme disease was a manufactured illness created during the cold war on Plum Island and how it got out. It makes a lot of really interesting points and the coincidences are very believable. Maybe Tom mentioned it on another post a while back?

Let's just hope that some of the current scientific beliefs that this virus has not mutated significantly allows a vaccine that will protect most people from getting it in the future vs. the flu vaccine which is a guessing game every year.

Yeah, Plum Island had an animal disease research center. Lyme, CT happens to be 10 miles across Long Island Sound.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

None of us here have any understanding of epidemiology, nor have the background to have an understanding of how scientists would be able to distinguish natural vs man made viruses. Our choice here is to believe our intuition or to believe the scientists.

To believe this was man made, you pretty much have to believe every scientist who has the education and experience to understand the virus is a part of the conspiracy to let China off the hook.

I understand the skepticism, but then you can also look at a wet market in Wuhan and think that it probably makes sense that a virus would originate there.

They just came out that it wasnt from pangolin/wet market.

There is insurmountable evidence, literally researchers from US/canada being paid millions by that lab. And lying about it. I mean the fact wuhan even has a lab where this exact virus was being studied is overwhelming evidence that this wasnt happenstance.

its a question of if it was released on accident. This virus has been at that wuhan lab for a while.

 

[Merge]

No, you don't.

Either all wrong or all covering up.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

Reported in 2015:

An experiment that created a hybrid version of a bat coronavirus — one related to the virus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) — has triggered renewed debate over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

In an article published in Nature Medicine1 on 9 November, scientists investigated a virus called SHC014, which is found in horseshoe bats in China. The researchers created a chimaeric virus, made up of a surface protein of SHC014 and the backbone of a SARS virus that had been adapted to grow in mice and to mimic human disease. The chimaera infected human airway cells — proving that the surface protein of SHC014 has the necessary structure to bind to a key receptor on the cells and to infect them. It also caused disease in mice, but did not kill them.

Although almost all coronaviruses isolated from bats have not been able to bind to the key human receptor, SHC014 is not the first that can do so. In 2013, researchers reported this ability for the first time in a different coronavirus isolated from the same bat population2.

Related stories

• Viral-research moratorium called too broad
• US suspends risky disease research
• Biosafety in the balance

The findings reinforce suspicions that bat coronaviruses capable of directly infecting humans (rather than first needing to evolve in an intermediate animal host) may be more common than previously thought, the researchers say.

But other virologists question whether the information gleaned from the experiment justifies the potential risk. Although the extent of any risk is difficult to assess, Simon Wain-Hobson, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, points out that the researchers have created a novel virus that “grows remarkably well” in human cells. “If the virus escaped, nobody could predict the trajectory,” he says

hmm

 

[Merge]

They just came out that it wasnt from pangolin/wet market.

Got a link?

There is insurmountable evidence, literally researchers from US/canada being paid millions by that lab. And lying about it.

Got a link?

its a question of if it was released on accident. This virus has been at that wuhan lab for a while.

This coronavirus, or A coronavirus?
I have not seen evidence that this virus was being researched in that lab.

 

[shu09]

Either all wrong or all covering up.

Or still researching it. Nice try.

Open your mind!

 

[Merge]

Or still researching it. Nice try.

Open your mind!

My mind is fairly open. I am a skeptical person in general and open to changing my opinion as the evidence presents itself.

I'm not objecting to this possible being released by a lab, but when scientists believe they would be able to identify a man made virus, and say that this virus does not appear to be man made... then I do place some level of trust in the scientific community to be trustworthy.

As of now, they are saying this is most likely not man made. They will keep researching and I will listen to what they say.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

Got a link?



Got a link?



This coronavirus, or A coronavirus?
I have not seen evidence that this virus was being researched in that lab.

i already linked one of them and pasted the contents here its above in the thread from 2015, before any of this gained any political steam.

as for the pangolin: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...ot-have-passed-coronavirus-humans-say-chinese

these seem to support the obvious, this thing got out of a lab. Wuhan is the lab, wuhan is where it started, exact virus has been known to be studied there. Not just a coronavirus, one that meets all the exact details of this one.... can i have brutally obvious for 1000 alex.

whats the old term we use in college bball. where theres smoke theres fire? this is ablaze

 

[Merge]

i already linked one of them and pasted the contents here its above in the thread from 2015, before any of this gained any political steam.

as for the pangolin: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...ot-have-passed-coronavirus-humans-say-chinese

these seem to support the obvious, this thing got out of a lab. Wuhan is the lab, wuhan is where it started, exact virus has been known to be studied there. Not just a coronavirus, one that meets all the exact details of this one.... can i have brutally obvious for 1000 alex.

whats the old term we use in college bball. where theres smoke theres fire? this is ablaze

When you said the theory of this coming from a pangolin/wet market made it seem like you were saying this was not from a wet market. Just to ensure we are on the same page, that's not what the link you posted shows.

When you say "Not just a coronavirus, one that meets all the exact details of this one". I haven't seen that anywhere other than from your post. Can you provide a link to support that? The bats in China have more than 400 different coronaviruses.

The part I was really objecting to was that this is man made. Again, I don't have the expertise to understand how it works, none of us here do... but I trust that when scientists say they would be able to identify something which would indicate it was man made, I believe them.

Is it possible scientists in China were researching this exact virus and let it out into the wild intentionally or by accident? Yes.
Should we keep investigating to understand the origin? Absolutely.
Should we trust the scientific community consensus? In my opinion, yes.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

When you said the theory of this coming from a pangolin/wet market made it seem like you were saying this was not from a wet market. Just to ensure we are on the same page, that's not what the link you posted shows.

When you say "Not just a coronavirus, one that meets all the exact details of this one". I haven't seen that anywhere other than from your post. Can you provide a link to support that? The bats in China have more than 400 different coronaviruses.

The part I was really objecting to was that this is man made. Again, I don't have the expertise to understand how it works, none of us here do... but I trust that when scientists say they would be able to identify something which would indicate it was man made, I believe them.

Is it possible scientists in China were researching this exact virus and let it out into the wild intentionally or by accident? Yes.
Should we keep investigating to understand the origin? Absolutely.
Should we trust the scientific community consensus? In my opinion, yes.

to your bottom comment i agree. im not advocating that its man made. but it could be altered. as for it being released i am 50/50. Released due to malice or released due to incompetence. It seems that many people were questioning the risk reward for studying this in the first place. from what i can tell this could have been being worked on since 2013.... just guessing it seems like after 7 years i would think the work would be how to stop it rather than weaponize it. but nobody was remotely close to having a head start stopping it. china was more concerned with trying to hide the situation even existed. canadian and us scientists lying about working at this chinese labs. hmm. why the need to lie?

 

[Merge]

to your bottom comment i agree. im not advocating that its man made. but it could be altered.

Again, I feel like that statement is a personal opinion which is really based on nothing.
That's what the scientists are looking for. Was a coronavirus altered by man, to which they have so far said no.

just guessing it seems like after 7 years i would think the work would be how to stop it rather than weaponize it

If you want to go down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole, I think it would be worse if this wasn't a weapon but just testing the communicability and the weapon will be when they combine it with something that is far more deadly.

china was more concerned with trying to hide the situation even existed.

That I agree with.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

Again, I feel like that statement is a personal opinion which is really based on nothing.
That's what the scientists are looking for. Was a coronavirus altered by man, to which they have so far said no.



If you want to go down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole, I think it would be worse if this wasn't a weapon but just testing the communicability and the weapon will be when they combine it with something that is far more deadly.



That I agree with.

All these asymptomatic carriers, 2 week incubations. Could be outrageous if it was weaponized

 

[knowknow456]

All these asymptomatic carriers, 2 week incubations. Could be outrageous if it was weaponized

The good news, so to speak, is this real world experiment provides evidence that mutually assured destruction would be a potential outcome of virus weaponization

 

[donnie_baseball]

I have from a Pharma insider who has recently spoken to multiple Asian and Docs he works with. Very close family member who has been in Pharma research for 35 years and is now in the middle of all of this. The coincidence of it being released in Wuhan is staggering and many have their theories especially in Asia, but we will probably never know he says.

They have done the requisite testing on the virus, and determined that it has a natural (not man-made) origin. I have a link to it, somewhere.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

They have done the requisite testing on the virus, and determined that it has a natural (not man-made) origin. I have a link to it, somewhere.

Doesnt mean that it didnt get out of the wuhan lab to start this whole thing

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

The good news, so to speak, is this real world experiment provides evidence that mutually assured destruction would be a potential outcome of virus weaponization

The bad news, is that china would know that and do it anyway. Only russia treats its people more like pawns than china, it seems.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Doesnt mean that it didnt get out of the wuhan lab to start this whole thing

Yes, it does mean that. It wasn't laboratory-made.

 

[Section112]

They have done the requisite testing on the virus, and determined that it has a natural (not man-made) origin. I have a link to it, somewhere.

I had also read that somewhere too. Does not mean it wasn't released by mistake or on purpose. I don't think I ever implied it was manufactured and honestly I have no idea. I'm no scientist but one I know in infectious disease has some theories.

Best we focus on stopping the spread of it. That will take all our resources and more.

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

Yes, it does mean that. It wasn't laboratory-made.

doesnt mean it didnt start by getting out of a lab.

 

[HALL85]

Two more updates:
RWJ/BH has tested 2,479 with 520 positive and 1,000 have presented symptoms in ER. Don’t have admission of COVID or ICU system wide but Jersey City Medical Center which is part of the system only has 7 COVID admissions.

Geisinger Health: 2,162 tested (28 hour avg test turnaround), 38 positive, 452 negative, 1,661 pending, 9 admissions, 2 deaths.

 

[shu09]

You have numbers at Morristown by chance?

 

[HALL85]

You have numbers at Morristown by chance?

I don’t but a few days ago there were only a handful of COVID admissions and ICU patients. They have been doing a lot of testing. Their census is way down.

 

[knowknow456]

CDC sites 1,629 as of today and vast majority are in NY, CA & WA. Most states have 0-5. Once again, not to be taken likely but giving perspective. Even the hot spots are nowhere near what is happening in Italy, South Korea, etc.

Two weeks later CDC sites 123,000 cases as of today and vast majority are in NY, NJ, and CA. Twenty eight states have at least 500 cases. Once again, not to be taken likely but giving perspective.

 

[HALL85]

Two weeks later CDC sites 123,000 cases as of today and vast majority are in NY, NJ, and CA. Twenty eight states have at least 500 cases. Once again, not to be taken likely but giving perspective.

And as I have posted multiple times, the most important numbers are COVID admissions and ICU beds occupied. All of the government measures have been put in place to destress our healthcare system and ensure capacity. Just giving you a perspective of what is actually happening.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

And as I have posted multiple times, the most important numbers are COVID admissions and ICU beds occupied. All of the government measures have been put in place to destress our healthcare system and ensure capacity. Just giving you a perspective of what is actually happening.

What is happening is people are dying from this across multiple age ranges....1k a few days ago up to 2k yesterday, not a good trend

 

[HALL85]

What is happening is people are dying from this across multiple age ranges....1k a few days ago up to 2k yesterday, not a good trend

And that shouldn’t be a surprise with a virus that has no vaccine. We will need to keep analyzing more age data and underlying conditions and actions of those that died.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

 

[shupat08]

"While we don't have all the answers yet - including whether it came from an animal reservoir - a new analysis has definitively put to rest the conspiracies that claim it's a lab-made disease. "

"Two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2."

"With 'laboratory experiment gone wrong' out of the way, the team explored two viable hypotheses."

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-ne...en-percolating-innocently-in-humans-for-years

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

"While we don't have all the answers yet - including whether it came from an animal reservoir - a new analysis has definitively put to rest the conspiracies that claim it's a lab-made disease. "

"Two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2."

"With 'laboratory experiment gone wrong' out of the way, the team explored two viable hypotheses."

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-ne...en-percolating-innocently-in-humans-for-years

just because it wasnt MADE in a lab doesnt mean it wasnt studied and got out of a lab. crazy how media is going to no ends to try and disprove it. trying at all costs to deflect.

also, none of that disproves lab manipulation really. its basically saying they should throw the ace and not taking in account the lab might know everyone is looking for them to throw an ace

 

[shupat08]

just because it wasnt MADE in a lab doesnt mean it wasnt studied and got out of a lab. crazy how media is going to no ends to try and disprove it. trying at all costs to deflect.

also, none of that disproves lab manipulation really. its basically saying they should throw the ace and not taking in account the lab might know everyone is looking for them to throw an ace

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conspiracy_theories

 

[PosterFormallyKnownAsShuathelete]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conspiracy_theories

weird, epstien is on there. i guess he actually killed himself!

this isnt a conspiracy. do you really think that the deadly respiratory pathogen lab in wuhan china couldnt have possibly let out a deadly respiratory pathogen originating in wuhan? even if it was malicious its completely plausible. but i dont think it was, yet.

 

[shupat08]

weird, epstien is on there. i guess he actually killed himself!

this isnt a conspiracy. do you really think that the deadly respiratory pathogen lab in wuhan china couldnt have possibly let out a deadly respiratory pathogen originating in wuhan? even if it was malicious its completely plausible. but i dont think it was, yet.

This isn't a conspiracy. But let me tell you about my theory and then throw in how everyone is trying to cover up my theory while I argue against every scientific study that disproves my theory (even though I am not a scientist and I don't even have a PhD).

 

[knowknow456]

Just to update if anyone interested:
- Overall very few COVID admissions and ICU patients in hospitals I spoke. Also, one hospital system has six clinics performing tests (no wait). To speed process they have non-physician case managers qualifying patients. They acknowledge some patients are not being truthful about their symptoms but since they can handle the volume they are approving.

Except, of course for the eight hospitals that at this time alerted the state Health Department they are taking a four-hour break from accepting new patients.citing high patient volume
Raritan
CentraState
East Orange
Trinitas
Overlook
St. Michaels
Holy Name
St.Mary's

Just some perspective. For those that are interested in facts and not anecdotal stories - here is the link from the State of NJ that is updated in real time. We'll see if today was an outlier or a sign of things to come

https://hippocrates.nj.gov/hospdive...on?sortParam=county&ascOrDesc=asc&fromLogin=N

 

[HALL85]

Except, of course for the eight hospitals that at this time alerted the state Health Department they are taking a four-hour break from accepting new patients.citing high patient volume
Raritan
CentraState
East Orange
Trinitas
Overlook
St. Michaels
Holy Name
St.Mary's

Just some perspective. For those that are interested in facts and not anecdotal stories - here is the link from the State of NJ that is updated in real time. We'll see if today was an outlier or a sign of things to come

https://hippocrates.nj.gov/hospdive...on?sortParam=county&ascOrDesc=asc&fromLogin=N

The hospitals I spoke with were the major systems in NJ and NE PA. (AHS, RWJBH, LVHN, SLUHN, GH, TH, HMHS. Did I say I spoke with ALL hospitals? No, I spoke with some of the largest systems in the state that are all open according to your source. The ones you listed are smallest (100-200 beds), urban, mostly financially distressed, stand-alone hospitals that have historically struggled (several are in the process of being acquired or were so screwed up for-profits acquired them on the cheap). 100 bed hospitals have very little staff to begin with so it’s no surprise. But, If you knew anything about healthcare delivery in both states you would realize that. Your perspective is severely blurred by your lack of healthcare knowledge. In addition, Centra State is the hospital that serves Lakewood and surrounding communities where the Hasidic community keeps defying the orders to not congregate in large groups and infection rates have spiked.

 

[knowknow456]

your perspective is severely blurred by your lack of healthcare knowledge.

All true, I have not spent 30 years in pharma, had lunch at the Captal Grille in DC (it was full!) with very important doctors, or met with infectious disease doctors about testing. (Ironically we both have a South Korean dry cleaner. My guy does dry cleaning but yours is the next ambassador to South Korea, but that is a story for another day).

Pretty early on my perspective was this was bigger than - "Common sense balanced with living your life" as you so glibly said. But hey, even experts are wrong, right? And if the above named hospitals are full, the good news is the ones you called are doing great!

If you have real facts to share, we would welcome them. If you want to tell us stories, that's ok too, but lets not pretend they are facts.