Wachtel Updates

[downthestairs]

Many only seen to care about our ooc losses, which were underwhelming performances. That same team beat the crap out of uconn. Beat mq. Played cu to triple ot anf has won six other BE GAMES against better teams than we list to earlier. Three of whom get ncaa consideration and have better net than us.

Sometime logic suggests that this team has just gotten better. A person interested in having the best teams in the nation play in the tourney will understand that. The NET never will.

If we dont win a bunch of our remaining games. All for naught. If we do, screw the NET. And i think many on the committee will do just that. If not why not just pick and seed by NET.

Technically the NET doesn't determine whether a team gets in or where it's seeded. It's about properly understanding a team's resume to accurately gauge who that team has beaten.

A good example is Villanova. Currently ranked #41 in Kenpom (proxy for NET) and #95 in RPI. Meanwhile the 22-3 Samford is #72 in Kenpom and #36 in RPI. RPI literally only incorporates winning percentage. The idea behind NET is that you get proper credit for winning a road game against Villanova. A road win against Villanova is more impressive than a road win against Samford, even though Samford has a much better RPI.

However, NET itself is not supposed to be used to actually evaluate a team - because basketball is about whether you win or lose a game. There is no difference between winning by 20 or winning by 2, and obviously a win should not be worth more if you shoot 60% instead of 35%. Q1 / Q2 / etc. records matter but not the NET itself. The NET is a tool to evaluate a team's resume, but not the team itself.

With one major caveat - the NET can possibly introduce bias. When the committee evaluates teams, perhaps they let the NET ranking influence their decision - even though it is by no means supposed to. But by the letter of the law the NET cannot be used to evaluate a team itself.

 

[Seton75]

Technically the NET doesn't determine whether a team gets in or where it's seeded. It's about properly understanding a team's resume to accurately gauge who that team has beaten.

A good example is Villanova. Currently ranked #41 in Kenpom (proxy for NET) and #95 in RPI. Meanwhile the 22-3 Samford is #72 in Kenpom and #36 in RPI. RPI literally only incorporates winning percentage. The idea behind NET is that you get proper credit for winning a road game against Villanova. A road win against Villanova is more impressive than a road win against Samford, even though Samford has a much better RPI.

However, NET itself is not supposed to be used to actually evaluate a team - because basketball is about whether you win or lose a game. There is no difference between winning by 20 or winning by 2, and obviously a win should not be worth more if you shoot 60% instead of 35%. Q1 / Q2 / etc. records matter but not the NET itself. The NET is a tool to evaluate a team's resume, but not the team itself.

With one major caveat - the NET can possibly introduce bias. When the committee evaluates teams, perhaps they let the NET ranking influence their decision - even though it is by no means supposed to. But by the letter of the law the NET cannot be used to evaluate a team itself.

Yes. I understand. Well said and thanks. But the conversation over the season gives it more value. No one would say today we are in trouble today if net didnt exist. It is certainly effecting the bracketeers and the hoops conversations.

 

[radecicco]

Butler has wins over top 50 teams Texas Tech and Boise State out of conference. Seton Hall has zero notable non-conference wins. In conference, they've won at Marquette and at Creighton. Bigger than any road wins Seton Hall has. They also beat Providence at home today, which Seton Hall failed to do.

Respectfully, that game deserves a big asterisk— no Oduro.

 

[SHUisNJsTeam]

They are in that “powerhouse” big 10. 🤪🙄

Powerhouse and little 10 should never appear in the same sentence!

 

[Seton75]

Powerhouse and little 10 should never appear in the same sentence!

If ru wins out it helps us. So shuisnhsteam, i say R, you say U

Lol

 

[SHUisNJsTeam]

If ru wins out it helps us. So shuisnhsteam, i say R, you say U

Lol

NEVER!

The only thing that helps is dropping RU off the schedule and replacing them with a real Division I school.

 

[Piratz]

And out for now. Right disaster this miserable 2-4 stretch.

 

[Piratz]

 

[Hall91]

Hard to argue, We have little to no room for error the rest of the way. Need 4 more regular season wins and at least 1 win in the BET to try to get a spot. Based on the way we played against Gtown and Nova; this would seem to be a Best Case scenario.

 

[Seton75]

If that is who we are. We should stay home if our net was 5

 

[TomD82]

Yes. I understand. Well said and thanks. But the conversation over the season gives it more value. No one would say today we are in trouble today if net didnt exist. It is certainly effecting the bracketeers and the hoops conversations.

With an RPI of 90 we are certainly in trouble. And with things like 1 Q1 win out of conference and an SOS of 88 that does not help either. This team is in trouble by any metric.

 

[Hall91]

How is our SOS 88? Baylor on the road, Big East schedule is a grind sans Gtown and DePaul. Crazy.

 

[hallwins]

Missouri
Iowa
USC
Rutgers all performing poorly

 

[TomD82]

Missouri
Iowa
USC
Rutgers all performing poorly

And probably 6 other cupcake types whose net is close to 300.

 

[Piratz]

What can you do? They’re going to have to earn it. Judging by the past two games they don’t look up to the task.

It’s been a bizarre season. They had a terrible non-conference with the “best” win being against a team that’s 8-16 and 0-11 in the SEC, not to mention a lot of uncompetitive play including an awful home loss to Rutgers. They’ve been bad the past 6 games as well.

But in the middle was this crazy 6-1 run to start BE play with 4 Q1 wins and massive upsets over Connecticut and Marquette. Right now that’s the outlier. This was the issue with the bitching about the metrics. This is what they put out there for the 11 games to start the year. It wasn’t some conspiracy. They’ve played the last few games like the first 11.

See if they step up.

 

[HallX2]

What can you do? They’re going to have to earn it. Judging by the past two games they don’t look up to the task.

It’s been a bizarre season. They had a terrible non-conference with the “best” win being against a team that’s 8-16 and 0-11 in the SEC, not to mention a lot of uncompetitive play including an awful home loss to Rutgers. They’ve been bad the past 6 games as well.

But in the middle was this crazy 6-1 run to start BE play with 4 Q1 wins and massive upsets over Connecticut and Marquette. Right now that’s the outlier. This was the issue with the bitching about the metrics. This is what they put out there for the 11 games to start the year. It wasn’t some conspiracy. They’ve played the last few games like the first 11.

See if they step up.

Let’s hope we aren’t who the BE coaches thought we were preseason.

 

[SOpirate]

Wednesday’s game will tell us a lot. Xavier is much better than their record and Sean Miller has had our number since taking over.

A tournament team figures out how to get a win on their home court. If not then we could be primed for an implosion.

 

[Seton75]

Wednesday’s game will tell us a lot. Xavier is much better than their record and Sean Miller has had our number since taking over.

A tournament team figures out how to get a win on their home court. If not then we could be primed for an implosion.

Beat them, BU and SJU, win the Nova home game, beat DP. Win a game or two in the BET and cross our fingers and toes.

 

[LeftCoastPirates]

Beat them, BU and SJU, win the Nova home game, beat DP. Win a game or two in the BET and cross our fingers and toes.

If they win those 5 games and get to 13-7 in BE play, I don’t think you have to cross too many fingers and toes.

With 5 quad 1 wins, they will be a team that beats out their poor metrics.

Can they achieve that?…starts with the first one on Wednesday. That will tell us a whole lot as to where this team’s mindset is at.

 

[mbraue]

Respectfully, that game deserves a big asterisk— no Oduro.

And probably 6 other cupcake types whose net is close to 300.

This is why Willard didn't like to schedule so many cupcake NJ teams. He always had his share, but why do I feel we had more this year and last?

Of course, win at least 2 of the tougher OCC games and we be in much better shape.

Team is what it is. Final 7 games determine our post season. BE tourney nice - can't lose in the first round - but 2 wins there won't move the needle without probably winning at least 4 more in the regular season, including 1 on the road.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Beat them, BU and SJU, win the Nova home game, beat DP. Win a game or two in the BET and cross our fingers and toes.

Be nice if students would show up. VU had no problem filling the student section on a Saturday at noon with little inclination ahead of time that they would actually win the game, based on the season to-date.

The Rock has been a morgue since the CU game ended. And @Piratz I would say that was our last well-played game in the 2-4 run.

 

[Piratz]

Be nice if students would show up. VU had no problem filling the student section on a Saturday at noon with little inclination ahead of time that they would actually win the game, based on the season to-date.

The Rock has been a morgue since the CU game ended. And @Piratz I would say that was our last well-played game in the 2-4 run.

Definitely. I walked out of there that Saturday thinking we let one slip away but we reiterated who we were and the fans were electric.

Then Kadary goes out and we’ve been off ever since.

 

[catholicman]

It's gut check time for the players, coaches, and fans this Wednesday and beyond.

 

[Seton75]

It's gut check time for the players, coaches, and fans this Wednesday and beyond.

I will be there with the love van crew. We always are. 6:30, 8PM noon on Saturday, any time a game is scheduled, we make it.

I am not despondent, that is too strong. I have lost faith. I dont have the feeling it will get better and I hope this is a foolish overreaction. Right now, I see no reason to expect it will.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Sounds about right to me after the tough week we had compared to others, and the weak metrics.

At the halfway point of the BE season it’s all in front of us to earn a bid and make Selection Sunday an event!

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Hall has to win 2 out of the next 3 games

 

[NYC Pirate]

The Hall players have to step up. The fans that are in the building will get behind them. Hard to believe the team can't fulfill their defensive assignments at this point. The players have to want it. It's that simple.

 

[SOpirate]

Hall has to win 2 out of the next 3 games

2 of 3 as a minimum just to have a pulse. That would still leave much work to be done in the final stretch of the season.

 

[TheHall87]

This is why Willard didn't like to schedule so many cupcake NJ teams. He always had his share, but why do I feel we had more this year and last?

Of course, win at least 2 of the tougher OCC games and we be in much better shape.

Team is what it is. Final 7 games determine our post season. BE tourney nice - can't lose in the first round - but 2 wins there won't move the needle without probably winning at least 4 more in the regular season, including 1 on the road.

I'm not sure the non-conference schedule was constructed much differently than typical. We probably played one more soft game than we have typically because the SD tournament only had two games. We also didn't have a Gavitt Games opponent.

We did have the two SD games (USC and Iowa), a Big 12 series game (at Baylor), the RU game and the road game at Missouri. That's five P5 games plus six buy games.

What is different this year: we were 1-4 in the P5 games and those teams as a group aren't very good. Their combined record through Monday is 61-57. If you take out Baylor, that puts Iowa, USC, RU and Mizzou at 44-51 combined.

Worse our four OOC losses are to the four best opponents by NET.

Our OOC opponents by NET through Monday's games.

at Baylor - 12 - L
N - Iowa - 66 - L
Rutgers - 86 - L
N - USC - 109 - L
at Missouri - 153 - W
Monmouth - 194 - W
Northeastern - 223 - W
St. Peter's - 231 - W
Albany - 267 - W
Wagner - 291 - W
FDU - 324 - W

 

[Piratz]

 

[SHUSA]

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fantastic. the nova loss killed metrics, but its in essence a road loss to a mid pack team. not life threatening now that they bounced back emphatically

 

[Halldan1]

 

[SOpirate]

How close is Maryland to playing their way onto the bubble? Getting ahead of myself, but it would be very interesting if somehow we ended up in a first 4 matchup with them.

 

[Piratz]

How close is Maryland to playing their way onto the bubble? Getting ahead of myself, but it would be very interesting if somehow we ended up in a first 4 matchup with them.

Not close at all. They’d have to run the table at least and it would have to be now. They only have 2 Q1 games left: Illinois, at Wisconsin, and MAYBE at Rutgers. Those are the next 3. Their non-conf was worse than ours with losses to UAB and Davidson without any notable win. UCLA was their best non-conf win. They’re 2-6 Q1, 3-2 Q2, 2-3 Q3. Their non-conf SOS is 336. Yikes.

If they ran the table they’d get to 20-11, 12-8 and add 2-3 more Q1 wins. Then it’s Bubble at best.

 

[LeftCoastPirates]

How close is Maryland to playing their way onto the bubble? Getting ahead of myself, but it would be very interesting if somehow we ended up in a first 4 matchup with them.

Not very close at all.

3 quad three losses to Davidson (117) UAB (112) and Rutgers (89)

2-6 quad 1.
@ Illinois (13) without their best player
@ Iowa (70)

5-8 vs Q1 / Q2

NET OOC SOS: 306

Road / Neutral: 3-8

 

[Hall Is Life]

 

[Hall Is Life]

 

[Seton75]

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Like I said, all they think of is NET. Predictive my ass.

 

[radecicco]

I don’t know if we make theNCAAT but it’s great and fun to be having these conversations in mid February. Think of what we were all thinking and posting in early December. Amazing job by Sha and the players to turn this around so that we are in the conversation. Next three weeks will be fun.

 

[IronKaz1]

so if we go 12-8 in Big East and lose to UCONN and Creighton were screwed? CMON MAN

 

[JoePeppitone2012]

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Unbelievable that that’s the path to avoid Dayton and with that you might finish 3rd or 4th in the Big East but be a play in game

Major conference that’s one of the best in the country and that’s what 3rd or 4th gets a play in? Come on…..