Wachtel Updates
- Thread starter Piratz
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These guys use the NET to avoid thinking critically
Does nobody remember how bad they were in the non-conference? Those games matter.
We are presently 4-4 against the NET top 50 and 6-8 against the NET top 100.
We're 9-1 against NET 101-362 and 7-0 against teams ranked 200 and worse.
Our best OOC win is Missouri who is ranked 153, which is our only top 200 NET OOC win (Monmouth has dipped to 201).
For all the good the UConn and Marquette wins do, we've got all those empty wins plus three losses of 18 or more against the top 50 and a fourth just outside the top 50.
We can talk all we want about UConn and Marquette but I'd bet almost every other team we're battling with has at least one top 150 OOC win. That's not a high bar to clear.
We're 9-1 against NET 101-362 and 7-0 against teams ranked 200 and worse.
Our best OOC win is Missouri who is ranked 153, which is our only top 200 NET OOC win (Monmouth has dipped to 201).
For all the good the UConn and Marquette wins do, we've got all those empty wins plus three losses of 18 or more against the top 50 and a fourth just outside the top 50.
We can talk all we want about UConn and Marquette but I'd bet almost every other team we're battling with has at least one top 150 OOC win. That's not a high bar to clear.
Of course but you would think 3rd or 4th in the Big East means something
Instead offensive efficiency means more than winning close games in a tough conference
I think beating both UConn AND Marquette proves it wasn’t a fluke. It’s been stated that the committee will take into account our best player missing two games (losses). If our only losses the rest of the way are @UConn and @Creighton and we win a BET game, I don’t see us in Dayton. Maybe I’m naive but no matter how bad our OOC results were, 4th (possibly 3rd) place in the BE at 13-7 and 21 wins overall doesn’t land you in Dayton. No way.
If Hall was 8-12 in Big (PRE) Ten = a 5 seed - Just beat Johnnies
It doesn't since every P6 team plays a difficult conference schedule. Non-conference schedules are often the differentiators between bubble teams. Big surprise that not even having a top 150 OOC win might be a problem.
We and our BE brothers are also not helped by lugging around Georgetown and DePaul. They are two of the three worst P6 teams by NET ranking. DePaul at 320 is more than 100 positions below Vanderbilt (214) the next worst team. Georgetown was ranked 194 prior to tonight's game. These are the only three teams below 175.
That basically adds four "buy game" wins to our resume.
Predictive metrics are the big buzz among "bracketologists", aka, what does KenPom say. The problem with these metrics is they undervalue who actuallly wins and loses the games on the court. The predictive metrics were applied to college football, and how a 13-0 major conference champion was deemed unworthy of competing for a title.
KenPom is wonderful for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of head to head marchups, but a chicken shit way to give out tournament bids.
KenPom is wonderful for evaluating strengths and weaknesses of head to head marchups, but a chicken shit way to give out tournament bids.
Exactly they want offensive field goal percentage to weigh more than actually beating good teams. It’s just annoying and why SHU is in the position it’s in
And I’m sorry just because of DePaul and Georgetown does not make the Big East like every other P6 conference. It’s a top 3 or 4 conference this year. Finishing 3rd or 4th in difficult conferences SHOULD mean something
You’re talking about a 20 or 21 win team from the Big East playing in Dayton because of metrics that’s crazy
South Florida was sent to the play-in game in 2012 after a 12-6 Big East. They went 7-6 in non-conference. They won 2 games in NCAA.
Kenpom
| 1 | Big 12 Conference | +17.49 | |||
| 2 | Big East Conference | +15.32 | |||
| 3 | Southeastern Conference | +14.57 | |||
| 4 | Big Ten Conference | +14.54 | |||
| 5 | Atlantic Coast Conference | +11.66 | |||
| 6 | Pac 12 Conference | +11.33 |
And this is the most staggering statistic of them all. We are in the second best conference in the nation, tied for 3rd place, behind only the #1 and #4 teams in the country. And we are sitting on the bubble. Meanwhile, per BracketMatrix, Butler is firmly in as a 10 seed and Providence just moved in to a 12 seed.
We picked up 7 more votes in the polls yesterday, 27 of 105 now, up from 20. Simply not enough.
St. John's is a must win. As is Butler. No room for error anymore.
Apparently nobody here does, or more likely, they don't want to. But the season is played from November to March, not Christmas to March.
A couple weeks ago I thought 12-8 would do it. Now, I think 13-7 is what we need to overcome the non-conference performance. I think we'll be sweating it out if we finish 12-8.
How you finish should count vs how you start
Sign of the times — Creighton wins by 22 and leaves the starters in until the final whistle. Not a fan of McDemrmott but he knows how to keep moving up on the NET. Butler losing by 20+ at home should hopefully cause their NET to take a big drop.
We have such a weird resume. We’re also only 1 of 4 schools with 2 wins over top 1-2 seeds from today’s unveiling.
Wake Forest's NET was 37 going into today's game. They still have zero Quad 1 wins I believe? San Francisco's NET is 65 three ahead of SHU. Zero Quad 1 wins. Best win Minnesota.
Wake has one Q1 win -- over Florida. They also have two very nice ACC wins over Virginia and Virginia Tech.
But this is a classic case of being over-ranked. They are 4-9 against Q1/2 and 12-0 against Q3/4. They have a number of wins against soft competition by big margins.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
Likewise, USF is a function of beating up on a soft schedule. They are 19-1 against Q3/4 (and they have a non D-I win). That's actually pretty hard to do. Ignore their NET ranking, they're going nowhere.
San Francisco Dons NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for San Francisco Dons 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
Did it mean something to be 3rd or 4th in pac 12 across several specific seasons in the last 10 years?
Did the PAC12 ever sit as the 2nd strongest conference BY METRICS even with the drag of DePaul/Georgetown?
Wake has one Q1 win -- over Florida. They also have two very nice ACC wins over Virginia and Virginia Tech.
But this is a classic case of being over-ranked. They are 4-9 against Q1/2 and 12-0 against Q3/4. They have a number of wins against soft competition by big margins.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrantswww.warrennolan.com
Likewise, USF is a function of beating up on a soft schedule. They are 19-1 against Q3/4 (and they have a non D-I win). That's actually pretty hard to do. Ignore their NET ranking, they're going nowhere.
San Francisco Dons NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2024 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com
NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for San Francisco Dons 2024 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
Virginia Tech a nice win?
Real stupid to compare the Big East to the Pac12
Has the PAC12 been consistently a top basketball conference for a decade or so? Much better teams and basketball conference by every account
Every game has to matter. That’s what makes college hoops the best.
I have a hard team seeing a BE team left out at 12-8, but I’d be nervous for sure. Really tough to make the tourney when you start the way we did.
Seton Hall right now only has 3 wins against tournament teams (UConn, Marquette, Butler). Butler could easily fall into the NIT when all is said and done. Providence is another decent win but on the outside looking in right now. Seton Hall also has 6 losses against teams not currently projected to be in the field. Not a good ratio.
There are exceptions. Teams get better. Injured players heal, players become eligible and ineligible. March madness should be played by the best teams in March. Not by one who had some good OOC wins then sucked.
And is a win against #225 by a P6 team really harder than against #325?
I remember. I was pretty sure we would finish 10th if that was how good we were. Maybe 9th. But we are not that team anymore. THAT matters too. And you dont need a naismith phd to figure that out
What other sport rewards teams with postseason for anything less than their full season performance? I agree we are a better team, but if these guys wanted to be in the NCAA’s they should have played like this all season.
Even though they are better, they have not at all shown to be better enough to be NCAA worthy.
