Wrong Direction

[HALL85]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...up-36-5-as-adams-tries-to-curb-shooting-spike

Ignoring repealing bail reforms…dumb. Add more cops to arrest more criminals to have them released immediately. Sounds like a winning strategy.

 

[SHallguy2]

Going to take years to recover from defund the police movement. In the meantime many will suffer inside the cities. Sounds like the mayor wants to fight crime based on skin color. 80% of the crimes in NYC are by black and Hispanics. Going to be a long crime year, some people just don’t get it.

 

[HALL85]

Compounding this is the mass exodus from NY. I read something last week, that more people left NYC than any other last year.

 

[Merge]

Compounding this is the mass exodus from NY. I read something last week, that more people left NYC than any other last year.

That was probably older data. It's getting back to normal now that offices are open. Inventories have been decreasing and prices are increasing again.

On the bail reform note, not sure anything happens there before the fall election unfortunately. Too political.

 

[HALL85]

That was probably older data. It's getting back to normal now that offices are open. Inventories have been decreasing and prices are increasing again.

On the bail reform note, not sure anything happens there before the fall election unfortunately. Too political.

No, it was actually recent data the story was citing. Now there might be real estate speculation going on, but there are fewer people living in the city now.

 

[SHUSA]

glad i got out of there

 

[Merge]

No, it was actually recent data the story was citing. Now there might be real estate speculation going on, but there are fewer people living in the city now.

Not just talking about sales. Rents as well.
There may have been a mass exodus but those people have been replaced already. Vacancy levels are very low.

https://www.elliman.com/resources/siteresources/commonresources/static%20pages/images/corporate-resources/q1_2022/rental-02_2022.pdf

 

[HALL85]

Not just talking about sales. Rents as well.
There may have been a mass exodus but those people have been replaced already. Vacancy levels are very low.

https://www.elliman.com/resources/siteresources/commonresources/static%20pages/images/corporate-resources/q1_2022/rental-02_2022.pdf

https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2022/03/pandemic-prompted-exodus-new-york-city-gains-upstate

I believe this is the article referenced that I heard last week, which is 2020 vs. 2021. Obviously a lag in census data. Will be interesting to watch over time. Increasing crime and taxes is not a winning strategy to retain residents.

I'll give you a different data point. Bus transit company in Eastern PA that has exclusive routes from several cities in PA and two stops in NJ. 90% of the business is NYC commuter (PA and WTC). Pre-pandemic he was operating 68 buses at 80% capacity...now, he is operating 15 at 30% capacity. Much of that is WFH, so that hits the NYC economy as those people are no longer spending money during the week in NYC.

 

[Merge]

Not saying things are the same as they were beforehand yet.

People absolutely left during the pandemic but the real estate and rental market in NYC has recovered.

 

[HALL85]

Not saying things are the same as they were beforehand yet.

People absolutely left during the pandemic but the real estate and rental market in NYC has recovered
Will be interesting to see if that translates into a positive population change looks like this year.

 

[Merge]

I'd assume it will.
Fwiw, this is my industry. I audit a handful of banks in NYC and we need evidence to support the environmental risks within their loan portfolios. There was quite a bit of uncertainty when we were wrapping up our 2020 audits a year ago. End of 2021 into 2022 the indicators we look at were all so much better.

 

[HALL85]

I'd assume it will.
Fwiw, this is my industry. I audit a handful of banks in NYC and we need evidence to support the environmental risks within their loan portfolios. There was quite a bit of uncertainty when we were wrapping up our 2020 audits a year ago. End of 2021 into 2022 the indicators we look at were all so much better.

I see and hear so much wealth leaving the city. Remote work is enabling people this big time. The genie is out of the bottle. It’s a math exercise and it’s a big delta. People with money are usually pretty good at preserving wealth.