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Bubble

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HallBall10

All American
Sep 27, 2013
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Bubble: 2 categories
1. Locks: 42 Teams
2. Bubble (w/o any bid stealing 4 of remaining 6 will make the tournament)

American: Lock: Cincy,SMU
Houston..need to beat Cincy in semi-finals in order to have chance at play-in game... out.

A10: Lock: Dayton,VCU
URI..need to beat Dayton in semi-finals.

ACC: Lock: L'ville, Duke, FSU, UNC, Notre Dame,UVA,Miami,VTech
Wake..BC then VT then FSU... might need to beat VT for play-in game and FSU to avoid play-in.
Gtech..Pitt then UVA then NDame.. beating UVA might get them in the play-in game.
Cuse-lost to miami & must wait...i had them as a lock but if some chaos happens they could be on the outside looking in or at least in Dayton.

B12: Lock: Baylor, Kansas, WV,Iowa St., Ok St.
Kansas St...beat Baylor and they're probably in play-in game. beat WV to avoid play-in game. A loss to baylor and they're done.
TCU-probably needs to win conference but if they beat Iowa St., they'll think it's at least worth their time to check selection sunday...out

Big East: Lock: Nova, Creighton, Butler,Marq, SHU,Prov, X
Xavier..Depaul then Butler.. beating Depaul will either put them in play-in game or 1 seed in NIT and beating butler, safely puts them in.
Winner of Marq and SHU avoids possible play-in game and stressing if they'll get screwed by the committee.
Similar situation for Prov vs Creighton.


Big Ten: Lock: Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland,Minn,Mich,northwestern,mich st.
Michigan St...Beating Nebraska/Penn St. is probably good enough to keep them out of play-in game but a loss coupled with teams below notching some good wins and they'll find themselves closer to the bubble then they'd like.
Iowa- i like they're draw in B10.. Indiana then Maryland then Minnesota or Northwestern in semi's. A trip to the finals and i think they're in. Beat Maryland and they have a chance, which is something very few would have thought possible a couple weeks ago.
Indiana.. see Iowa's path above...a trip to the B10 finals and they'll be close... out
Illinois.. Mich then Purdue.. beat Michigan and it'll be close. beat Purdue and they're probably in.

MVC: Auto:Wichita St.
Bubble: Illinois St...It'll be close. Possible play-in game team.

Pac-12: Lock: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona
Bubble: USC..Washington then UCLA.. lose to Washington and they're squarely on bubble but a win probably avoids play-in game.
Cal..Oregon St. then Utah then Oregon.. beat Utah and they'll be close beat Oregon and they may even avoid play-in game... out.
Utah..Cal then Oregon in semi's. Beat Oregon and they'll be close.

SEC: Lock: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, vandy
Vanderbilt..TexA&M then Florida.. beat TexA&M and they're probably in. beat Florida and they avoid play-in game.
Georgia..Tenn then Kentucky.. must beat Kentucky to have chance to get in...out
Ole Miss..Auburn/Mizz then Arkansas then Vandy/Florida in semi's. They probably need to make it to the finals to have chance...out.

WCC: Lock: Zags, St. Mary's


Possible Bid stealing Conferences:
Nevada..no horrible loss in conf. tourney and they'll be close... possible play-in game at large team.
Midd Tenn..i think they get in play-in game if they don't win tourney. own wins over Vandy (23 points), @ ole miss, and UNC-wilmington.
 
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Wednesday's Games:

A10: VCU wins @ Duquesne

ACC: Pitt lands signature win against UVA in OT.
NC St. routs Vtech(which obviously lost to NC ST.)
Miami bad loss @ Cuse

American: Houston (probably conference's best chance for 3rd bid) avoids bad home loss vs Tulsa
Temple can't land signature win against at SMU. 0-3 in conference fading fast.
SMU looking strong.

Big East: Gtown out of discussion for now
Prov remains in discussion but looking like a pretender.

Big 12: Iowa St. misses big opportunity @ Baylor
Ok St. losses @ 7-7 Texas.

Big 10: Michigan rallies to avoid bad loss to Penn St.
Michigan St. turning it around and starting to look really strong.

MW: Nevada beats San Diego St.

SEC: South Carolina wins @ Georgia w/ thornwell
 
Thursday's Games:
Purdue @ Ohio St.
Uconn @Memphis
Minn @ Northwestern
Cal @ UCLA
Colorado @ Az St.
Utah @ Arizona
Stanford @USC
BYU @ St. Mary's
 
Seton Hall

AP RANK None

CONF. W-L 1-1

LAST 12 9-3

RPI 28

NON-CONF. W-L 10-2

vs. RPI TOP 25 0-2

vs. RPI TOP 50 1-2

vs. RPI TOP 100 3-3

vs. RPI TOP 150 5-3

ROAD W-L 1-1
 
10 seed is good, I like that for us. Sneak up under the radar on some teams
 
HallBall10 said:
you're probably right on them, but after a 26 point beat down and imo less proven than the other ACC teams, i kept them on the bubble for now.
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Good wins go far. the difference between them and us is that we dont have a good win.
 
Did not realize the regional was at MSG this year. They should push it there as much as possible IMO. Best arena in world
 
SHUBK said:
Did not realize the regional was at MSG this year. They should push it there as much as possible IMO. Best arena in world
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Did they already release all the tickets? I see there are a bunch on stubhub which makes me think they did.
 
Cal plays UCLA tonight. Would be awesome if they could pull off the upset
 
I'd sign up for any seed right now tbh. I like this team but something or some things seem to be missing so far. Pretty obvious what those are and there are plenty of games to be played, but this new BE looks tougher than ever and we are approaching the heart of our schedule with our back court not up the learning curve yet.
 
After Saturday, we enter a very difficult extended stretch of games. We'll likely be Vegas underdogs in 6 of the 7 games following DePaul. We need to steal a few wins in that stretch to stay afloat. What we do over in that stretch will tell me everything I need to know about this team.
 
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shu09 said:
After Saturday, we enter a very difficult extended stretch of games. We'll likely be Vegas underdogs in 6 of the 7 games following DePaul. We need to steal a few wins in that stretch to stay afloat. What we do over in that stretch will tell me everything I need to know about this team.
Click to expand...

I am really concerned about how we play more than the results. I think this team is good enough to get on a run even if it's after that stretch of games, but the key is getting ourselves playing the right kind of unselfish basketball. If we play the right kind of basketball no reason we can't go 4-3 in that stretch.
 
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Stanford's best player out indefinitely. That loss just became a bad loss.
 
radecicco said:
Duke played without their best player and lost on the road. So, according to some posters here, that should not be a good win for Vtech.
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No not at all because nobody is equating south carolina to duke. might as well say its the same as beating columbia without their best player by this logic. But grayson allen is not as important with a much better team than thornwell is to a decent sc team.
 
Thursday's Results:
Purdue @ Ohio St.-missed opportunity
Uconn @Memphis
Minn @ Northwestern- back to back wins at Purdue and Northwestern
Cal @ UCLA-Cal couldn't notch huge win. Next game @USC, which they need.
Colorado @ Az St. not a great loss for a bubble team.
Utah @ Arizona
Stanford @USC
BYU @ St. Mary's-does St. Mary's need to beat Gonzaga at least once or are their wins against Dayton, Nevada, and Stanford enough?

Friday games:
URI @ Dayton
 
Shuathelete said:
No not at all because nobody is equating south carolina to duke. might as well say its the same as beating columbia without their best player by this logic. But grayson allen is not as important with a much better team than thornwell is to a decent sc team.
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Total speculation on your part. Duke gets pummeled by a good, not great, Vtech team playing without Grayson Allen but it didn't affect them. Hmmm, Duke missing its AA guard doesn't affect he quality of Vtech's win at home. But SC missing its top player, not anywhere near AA status, while losing to SHU who is playing away home home totally diminishes our win. Where's the logic in that?
 
Stanford got beat badly by #25 USC. St Mary's beat BYU soundly being ranked 19 if they continue to win in the WCC they should be squarely off the bubble. Lunardi has them a 6 seed. Iowa lost in 2OT to Nebraska who is off to their best start in 40 years. UConn has been dead for weeks even before losing to UM last night. Only hope is a weird play in the AAC tournament like last year for them.
 
Bud Boomer said:
Really curious to see what happens with St. Mary's if Gonzaga wins the WCC tourney. SMC is REALLY good, but their OOC is pathetic for a mid major with at large hopes.
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SMC looked really good last night against BYU, they have a great offensive flow. But then again when they play some of the weaker teams of the WCC at times, they tend to drop down to the weaker level of competition and do not look like a tournament team.
 
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radecicco said:
Total speculation on your part. Duke gets pummeled by a good, not great, Vtech team playing without Grayson Allen but it didn't affect them. Hmmm, Duke missing its AA guard doesn't affect he quality of Vtech's win at home. But SC missing its top player, not anywhere near AA status, while losing to SHU who is playing away home home totally diminishes our win. Where's the logic in that?
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I didnt say that. Of course it affects it. But IT DOESNT MEAN THE TWO TEAMS ARE EQUAL. Vtechs win over Duke without their best player is much better than our win over SC without their best player. What do you not get?

If we beat columbia without their best player, is it a good win? with their best player is it a good win? We are looking holistically at Duke vs SC.
 
Shuathelete said:
I didnt say that. Of course it affects it. But IT DOESNT MEAN THE TWO TEAMS ARE EQUAL. Vtechs win over Duke without their best player is much better than our win over SC without their best player. What do you not get?

If we beat columbia without their best player, is it a good win? with their best player is it a good win? We are looking holistically at Duke vs SC.
Click to expand...
Columbia is not South Carolina. A win vs SC away from home when they were playing well even without thrir best player is a good win.
 
radecicco said:
Columbia is not South Carolina. A win vs SC away from home when they were playing well even without thrir best player is a good win.
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Thats completely debatable. what isnt debatable is that its not better than a win against duke without their best player. I wouldnt consider beating SC without thronwell a win the tourney committee would call good.

so in this case, yes a win against duke wihtout their best player is a good win (or at least a much better win) where the SC win is just decent.

Am i taking crazy pills?
 
no bubble teams beat a ranked team on saturday, a lot of missed opportunities.

In conferences with few good chances.
Houston loses at home to Cincy. @ Cincy and 2 vs SMU left.
URI lost @Dayton (Fri) Home games vs Dayton and VCU left.

Worst losses:
Pitt got smacked @ Cuse
Mich St. @ Penn St.

Best Wins:
Maryland @ Mich
S.Carolina vs TexA&M
Florida vs Tennessee
Ole Miss @ Auburn
Indiana bounces back vs Illinois
Utah @ Arizona St.

VCU, St. Mary's, Nevada all win.
 
Sunday's Games:

Nc St. @ UNC
NW @ Nebraska
Memphis @ Tulane
Wichita St. @ NIowa
UCF @ Uconn
OSU @ Minn
Cal @ USC
 
Who doesnt know Stanford was a bad loss? Of course it was. It just is not worth obsessing about. We have plenty of BE games to make a tourney resume. THE OOC has no amazing win and a bad loss. It has a couple of good wins. It isn't overcoming a 8-10 BE record and it won't render a good league season meaningless. It is better than last year's as is the schedule. We won by 30 yesterday. Imagine if we played Depaul to a tie for 39 minutes.
 
Wasn't South Carolina undefeated we beat them? It all means nothing unless we beat who we have to in the league and get 2 of 8 against Nova, X, Creighton and Butler.
 
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Seton75 said:
Who doesnt know Stanford was a bad loss? Of course it was. It just is not worth obsessing about. We have plenty of BE games to make a tourney resume. THE OOC has no amazing win and a bad loss. It has a couple of good wins. It isn't overcoming a 8-10 BE record and it won't render a good league season meaningless. It is better than last year's as is the schedule. We won by 30 yesterday. Imagine if we played Depaul to a tie for 39 minutes.
Click to expand...

The opportunity is right there if front of the team is right. The NCSOS is good enough this year with 10 BE wins, but not for 8-10 is also correct. 9-9 in BE gets real dicey and for the past 8 yrs or so we tried to get away with .500 in conference and playing nobody NC. It always turned out we were never even in the bubble conversation with that type of resume.

SC has a good 4 game stretch comming up if they take the 1st 2 and split with Florida and UK that would be good for us.
 
I think many forget we were a bubble team last year until firmly putting ourselves in with the win at home against Xavier. Our best OOC win was about the level we can expect Cal and SC to be. Our worst OOC loss this year will be slightly worse than last year, but it's not crazy bad. The bottom line is that if we take care of business in the BE then we will be fairly comfortable in early March.
 
Some observations about bubble teams that I watched yesterday and Friday.

1. Oakland is a solid team.Their starting five can beat any per conference team that is not ranked in the top 10, for sure. Their depth is a little short, but a couple of role players do contribute a little. If they lose in their conference tourney, they are a legit at large bid threat.

2. Valpo does NOT have the good mid major athletes as usual.
However, they are very disciplined and shoot well from outside if given room.I do not think Valpo will make the NCAA tournament as at large, this year.

3. Dayton is well coached and disciplined.

4, Rhode Island is undisciplined and is weak in the paint, relative to big conference teams. Danny Hurley was clearly out coached by Miller of Dayton, yesterday.

5. Iowa plays Rutgers today. This is one of the few games Rutgers can compete in. If Iowa loses, they will be out of the NCAA bubble for sure.
 
Sunday's Games:

Nc St. @ UNC...NC St blown out.
NW @ Nebraska..nice win for NW
Memphis @ Tulane
Wichita St. @ NIowa
UCF @ Uconn...highly unlikely UCF makes the tournament.
OSU @ Minn ...two teams trending in opposite directions.
Cal @ USC...nice win for Cal.
 
Each Monday, I'll update the list of bubble teams(up top):

For this week, I don't think i'd change anything from last week. (although Minn is getting close, and a few teams are close to slipping off the bubble)
I still don't have Vtech on top line after losing by a combined 41 points in two losses last week.
 
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