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I'd rather avoid the 8-9 seed.

Jerry1992 said:
Really hope we just win Thursday and take best shot at UConn. We obviously deserve bid even if we lose and probably safely in. However, for some reason I have little faith in committee. I would be a bit more relaxed next Sunday with one more win. :)
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Agreed... or at least a close loss. If we were somehow to get blown out, I might be a bit nervous on Sunday,

Hopefully we bring our A-game to MSG b/c you know St Johns will be desperate and hoping for a blowout W for their bubble hopes/dreams/metrics.
 
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Unfortunately based on metrics I’m thinking the winner of Thursday get a bye as a 10 or 11 and the loser will get Dayton.
 
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Nbnylon said:
Unfortunately based on metrics I’m thinking the winner of Thursday get a bye as a 10 or 11 and the loser will get Dayton.
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If they lose Thurs gotta hope the committee would understand SHU won the head to head (2-1), finished higher in the BE standings, had more Quad 1 wins, and not just the isolated data point of NET.
 
walshtrips said:
I'd be very happy with an 11 or 12 seed, as long as we can avoid the play-in. Our path to the Sweet Sixteen is more difficult as a 9 or 10 seed.
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newshu1 said:
12 seed is not possible
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A 12 seed is possible but based on projections extraordinarily unlikely. Seton Hall getting a 12 AND avoiding the play-in is even less likely.

Depending on how the field is laid out, the First Four games involving the last four at-large teams could involve one or two of the 12 seeds. It would mean the Selection Committee decided more of the automatic qualifiers than typical merited a higher seed than the last of the at-larges.

Since 2011, the initial year of the First Four, one or both of the at-large games were for a 12-seed or worse in five different years (2011-14 and 2022). In 2012, the games were for a 12-seed and a 14-seed and in 2013 one of the games was a 13-seed.
 
For high major teams, there is a direct correlation between playing multiple games in your conference tournament and early exits in the ncaa tournament.

In past three seasons, the 15 conference tournament champions from the ACC, SEC, BigTen, BigEast, and Big12 have won an avg of 1.5 games in the NCAA tournament.

Playing 3 conference games in 3 days and then flying to play an NCAA tournament game a couple days later is a recipe for disaster.

Winning a conference tournament is great but it comes at a great expense. The silver lining to losing early is you are able to preserve the team for the NCAAs. Conference tournament results don’t have significant impact on seeding.

It all depends what you value more - winning in the BET or the NCAA tournament? Elite teams can have both but it’s unlikely.
 
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SOBO1 said:
For high major teams, there is a direct correlation between playing multiple games in your conference tournament and early exits in the ncaa tournament.

In past three seasons, the 15 conference tournament champions from the ACC, SEC, BigTen, BigEast, and Big12 have won an avg of 1.5 games in the NCAA tournament.

Playing 3 conference games in 3 days and then flying to play an NCAA tournament game a couple days later is a recipe for disaster.

Winning a conference tournament is great but it comes at a great expense. The silver lining to losing early is you are able to preserve the team for the NCAAs. Conference tournament results don’t have significant impact on seeding.

It all depends what you value more - winning in the BET or the NCAA tournament? Elite teams can have both but it’s unlikely.
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Villanova didn’t seem to have a problem winning national championships after playing in the BET Championship games in 2016 and 2018. Winning a national title is very hard whether you play in your conference championship game or not. I don’t think the correlation can necessarily be drawn to playing too many games the week prior. There are still plenty of rest days between the title game and the first round.
 
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Hall Is Life said:
Villanova didn’t seem to have a problem winning national championships after playing in the BET Championship games in 2016 and 2018. Winning a national title is very hard whether you play in your conference championship game or not. I don’t think the correlation can necessarily be drawn to playing too many games the week prior. There are still plenty of rest days between the title game and the first round.
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Except that we are not a deep team and to win the BET, the starters will need to log 32-35 mpg for three straight days.

Its a nice problem to have…winning the BET would be phenomenal any year, but this year given expectations and having to beat one or two top ten teams to win it?
 
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HALL85 said:
Except that we are not a deep team and to win the BET, the starters will need to log 32-35 mpg for three straight days.

Its a nice problem to have…winning the BET would be phenomenal any year, but this year given expectations and having to beat one or two top ten teams to win it?
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Villanova wasn’t particularly deep either, especially in 2018 when 4 of their 5 starters logged over 40 minutes.

My point is— as a fan, there is a silver lining. If we win, awesome, we’re BET champs. If we lose, it’s ok because we’ll be better rested for Thursday or Friday. For the players and especially Sha, they want to win at all costs. And that’s the mentality I have as well. To try to find a correlation between title games and early tournament exits couldn’t possibly be proven to be directly linked. Good teams get upset and bow out early all the time.
 
Hall Is Life said:
Villanova wasn’t particularly deep either, especially in 2018 when 4 of their 5 starters logged over 40 minutes.

My point is— as a fan, there is a silver lining. If we win, awesome, we’re BET champs. If we lose, it’s ok because we’ll be better rested for Thursday or Friday. For the players and especially Sha, they want to win at all costs. And that’s the mentality I have as well. To try to find a correlation between title games and early tournament exits couldn’t possibly be proven to be directly linked. Good teams get upset and bow out early all the time.
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Brings up the question which would you rather have win the BET and lose in 1st game of NCAA TOURNAMENT or lose in 1st game of BET and win a game in NCAA’s. I think I’d prefer the latter.
 
Nbnylon said:
Brings up the question which would you rather have win the BET and lose in 1st game of NCAA TOURNAMENT or lose in 1st game of BET and win a game in NCAA’s. I think I’d prefer the latter.
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That is always a great question, but especially with this year‘s team.

Given how the season has gone and expectations I think I would actually prefer winning the BET. That would be an amazing accomplishment for this team and for Sha and the staff.

Winning the BET also would give them momentum for recruiting and filling out the roster next year. And if Dre and Kadary move on, I can’t think of a better send off and achievement.
 
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Nbnylon said:
Brings up the question which would you rather have win the BET and lose in 1st game of NCAA TOURNAMENT or lose in 1st game of BET and win a game in NCAA’s. I think I’d prefer the latter.
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I too would prefer the latter. The excitement of winning the first game, knowing you have a second game, and thus a chance at the Sweet 16 is exhilarating.
 
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Hall Is Life said:
I too would prefer the latter. The excitement of winning the first game, knowing you have a second game, and thus a chance at the Sweet 16 is exhilarating.
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Right, you would also end the season on a somewhat positive note. We got that first win in tourney in a while next year let’s get the next one. Whereas if win BET and lose first NCAA game it becomes maybe we weren’t as good as we thought and the summer is a little tougher to handle.
 
I want my cake and want to eat it too with our senior laden team. An awesome finish to the season to me would be beating St Johns, losing to UConn and then winning one or dare I say two games in the NCAA tourney. I can dream. I’m not afraid of our guys going up against most NCAA teams with the exception of a Kentucky that is playing really well or UNC. I think we will be a tough out with my blue colored glasses firmly in place.
 
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Nbnylon said:
Right, you would also end the season on a somewhat positive note. We got that first win in tourney in a while next year let’s get the next one. Whereas if win BET and lose first NCAA game it becomes maybe we weren’t as good as we thought and the summer is a little tougher to handle.
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And I’m so tired of just getting to the dance and calling it an accomplishment that I so badly want more. We have a coach who has proven he can win in March. I was never confident under Willard (and his teams seemingly weren’t either), but with Sha, I feel like we can take down anybody. That includes the BET as well. Why the hell not?!
 
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Hall Is Life said:
Villanova didn’t seem to have a problem winning national championships after playing in the BET Championship games in 2016 and 2018. Winning a national title is very hard whether you play in your conference championship game or not. I don’t think the correlation can necessarily be drawn to playing too many games the week prior. There are still plenty of rest days between the title game and the first round.
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How great did we look in 2016 after winning the tournament? Or in 2019 after losing in the BET Finals?

Not very in 2016 and better in 2019 but we did tire late in that game. Yes, there were other circumstances, especially in 2016, but we weren't at our best.

While there is rest, some teams are getting more of it and that's where fatigue can become a factor. In 2016 Gonzaga had four extra days than we did. In 2019 Wofford had five extra days off.
 
The only way we would ever get to a sweet 16 with this team is if we had a first or second game exit in the BET.

There is absolutely no way we can play 3 nights in a row and then win 2 in 3 days the following week going essentially 6 deep.
 
TheHall87 said:
How great did we look in 2016 after winning the tournament? Or in 2019 after losing in the BET Finals?

Not very in 2016 and better in 2019 but we did tire late in that game. Yes, there were other circumstances, especially in 2016, but we weren't at our best.

While there is rest, some teams are getting more of it and that's where fatigue can become a factor. In 2016 Gonzaga had four extra days than we did. In 2019 Wofford had five extra days off.
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What about in 2022 when we lost in the BET quarterfinals and got our doors blown off in the first round by TCU?

What about 2017 when we lost in the BET semis and lost in the first round to Arkansas?

I think it is very difficult and subjective to blame losing in the NCAA Tournament on fatigue. It’s a crapshoot. And that’s what makes it so great. 6 win or go home games to win a title.
 
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Hall Is Life said:
But Gonzaga had played there before. We were sucking oxygen at the first media timeout. And to put a 6 seed out west against a west coast 11 seed was a joke. We’re owed one this time.
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This was one of the most ridiculous arguments of all time on this board. Maybe Gonzaga was just better? If all that was all true, Colorado-based teams should never lose. Even the Jets won games the last two years in Denver!
 
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lloyde dobler said:
This was one of the most ridiculous arguments of all time on this board. Maybe Gonzaga was just better? If all that was all true, Colorado-based teams should never lose. Even the Jets won games the last two years in Denver!
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They were clearly better that night. Would have loved to see how it played out with a reasonable draw. We did too much good work to end up in Denver against an under-seeded Gonzaga team. Playing in Denver wasn’t conducive to our style of basketball and it definitely hindered our performance.
 
Hall Is Life said:
They were clearly better that night. Would have loved to see how it played out with a reasonable draw. We did too much good work to end up in Denver against an under-seeded Gonzaga team. Playing in Denver wasn’t conducive to our style of basketball and it definitely hindered our performance.
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Or maybe Gonzaga was a better team than what their regular season performance earned them as a seed in the tournament.

That Gonzaga team lost 4 nonconference games that year and lost twice to St. Mary’s in conference play.

Their metrics were solid as they didn’t get blown out in any of those losses and took care of business for the most part against the remainder or a weak WCC.

Do you think Wichita State wanted to face a talent loaded Kentucky team (8 seed) in the second round when they were the #1 seed with Van Vleet, Baker, and Early?

Sometimes a team underperforms and are lower ranked by the committee. But just because they are talented doesn’t earn them the right for a higher seed.

The committee didn’t screw Seton Hall. We got beat by a team that finally played to their potential.
 
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GU was the better team. A lot of juniors and seniors on that team but Sabonis was only a sophomore. SHU was a bunch of sophomores high on themselves after the BET win. And Whitehead had the worst game of his career. Somewhat predictable in hindsight.
 
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radecicco said:
GU was the better team. A lot of juniors and seniors on that team but Sabonis was only a sophomore. SHU was a bunch of sophomores high on themselves after the BET win. And Whitehead had the worst game of his career. Somewhat predictable in hindsight.
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We will get no respect for the location . It will be Salt Lake City or Denver . I would be shocked if we are anywhere East of the Mississippi .
 
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That Sabonis kid also happened to be really, really good. Very close to averaging a triple double for the Kings this year. Extremely impressive for a big man in today's game.
 
Gonzaga was a much better team that year. With that said, I was sitting four rows behind our bench and after the first two timeouts, our guys were rushing for the oxygen. They had their hands on their knees and they were sucking wind. During warmups, I was worried because the Zags were on the court the entire warm-up until about a minute or two before the game started and they were all shooting. Every guy on that team could shoot the ball and they looked so relaxed. And we had no answer for Sabonis. They were better but we either had the altitude in our heads or in our lungs. It took til the second half for us to get our legs under us and play better ball.

That underseeded Zags team went to the sweet 16 and lost to Cuse by 3 in a tight game. That Cuse team went to the Final 4. Zags were better but we did not look right in that first half. Not an excuse at all, just something that happened. If we were on our game, we probably lose anyway but would have been much more competitive.
 
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Section112 said:
Gonzaga was a much better team that year. With that said, I was sitting four rows behind our bench and after the first two timeouts, our guys were rushing for the oxygen. They had their hands on their knees and they were sucking wind. During warmups, I was worried because the Zags were on the court the entire warm-up until about a minute or two before the game started and they were all shooting. Every guy on that team could shoot the ball and they looked so relaxed. And we had no answer for Sabonis. They were better but we either had the altitude in our heads or in our lungs. It took til the second half for us to get our legs under us and play better ball.

That underseeded Zags team went to the sweet 16 and lost to Cuse by 3 in a tight game. That Cuse team went to the Final 4. Zags were better but we did not look right in that first half. Not an excuse at all, just something that happened. If we were on our game, we probably lose anyway but would have been much more competitive.
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My point was Gonzaga should not have been an 11 seed
 
They were clearly under seeded but that wasn't one of those great Gonzaga years even though they finished with 28 wins. That team got much better as the year progressed and playing their best ball at the end of the year hence the under seeding.
 
Section112 said:
Gonzaga was a much better team that year. With that said, I was sitting four rows behind our bench and after the first two timeouts, our guys were rushing for the oxygen. They had their hands on their knees and they were sucking wind. During warmups, I was worried because the Zags were on the court the entire warm-up until about a minute or two before the game started and they were all shooting. Every guy on that team could shoot the ball and they looked so relaxed. And we had no answer for Sabonis. They were better but we either had the altitude in our heads or in our lungs. It took til the second half for us to get our legs under us and play better ball.

That underseeded Zags team went to the sweet 16 and lost to Cuse by 3 in a tight game. That Cuse team went to the Final 4. Zags were better but we did not look right in that first half. Not an excuse at all, just something that happened. If we were on our game, we probably lose anyway but would have been much more competitive.
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Agree with everything you said. I just feel like the word “under seeded” had been misused over the past 8 years which leads to the narrative that Seton Hall got screwed.

Correct me if I am wrong. But I perceive that statement to mean a team that had a regular season performance that should have earned them a higher seed line on selection Sunday. Not based on what their talent ceiling should place them at.

A recent example was last year’s FAU. We can beat up on the NET all we want but they were a NET 15 on selection Sunday. Had a record of 29-3 overall. Their resume did lack the depth of Q1/2 opponents. But they got a 9 seed and went on to lose to SDSU on a buzzer beat in the Final Four.

To me that is definition of being “under seeded”.
 
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Section112 said:
Agree. Hoping we are under seeded this year!! ;)
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I think we will be exactly like what Gonzaga was. A senior laden team playing better currently than what their overall resume (due to poor early season performance) has earned them as a seed line.

A 6 or 7 seed that draws Seton Hall won’t be happy on Sunday.
 
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