I could be wrong, but the positives may have more to do with the availability of testing in each state.
Dr. Fauci gives grim projection
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
- Start date
Yeah, that makes sense. Just hoping we can ramp up testing to the point where that number starts to drop.
Need to figure out a way to get more tests done to help get us out of this.
the state will really need to get it in gear as we start to come down the back of the curve.
In order to get back to some semblance of normalcy the testing needs to be widespread, including testing for those who've already had it.
The last time I checked they were about 80 companies with COVID rapid tests that have applications in with the FDA for emergency approval. Abbott was the first but there’s a ton of other companies with similar technologies that will be more portable for use at a business, pharmacy or even at home.
I think that will be the key to getting the country back to work. If a company contest all of their employees at 20 bucks per test with a 10 minute turnaround time, At least that is a starting point for everyone to have a level of comfort in a working environment. That will be tougher for restaurants, airplanes and buses where people are going to be a little bit more guarded about re-engaging.
Worse. DeSantis has toed the line between authoritarianism and keeping things open, but the models say his state will only have 4300-4400 deaths. That's less than New Jersey in a state with more than twice the population (and a lot of old people).
Ok desantis also said the super bowl brought it to florida and then didnt shut anything down until 2 weeks ago so which is it for him?
DeSantis is a Trump stooge so I don't put much stock into anything he says. He's been all over the map, first saying NY/NJ people brought it to his state.
More testing, less restrictions on testing. Less draconian measures that have tanked NJ's economy.
Agree that we should have about 10x the number of tests we have performed so far... though we are on par or better than most states in tests / population. Not sure where the fault is on the restrictions.
On the draconian measure... I agree with what was done in the state.
Horrible would have been delaying what he did which would have increased the number of cases and pushed hospitals in the state way beyond their capacity. I'm glad he acted fairly early.
Unfortunately by the end of tomorrow, NJ will in all likelihood have exceeded that 1887 figure. And we still have a long ways to go
Dont know whether this link will work, but this is one of the more reasonable and realistic paths back to "normal". It wont make everyone happy (we dont go back 100% immediately), but it lays out the whys and hows.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200406.55720/full/
Interesting article. This really aligns with where healthcare is heading. The smartphone is going to serve as a personalized healthcare tool that can be a 1) diagnostic tool, 2) medical record & personal genomic sequence, 3) validation/passport, 4) doctor connect-telemedicine, etc. Just not there quite yet...2-3 years.
To supplement with some facts, NJ ranks 5th in total number of tests as of yesterday. I use the following website, which provides sources for how they arrive at their numbers
.https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
NY 417k
FL 167k
CA 164k
Tx 116k
NJ 113k
PA 113k
Even though the states ahead of us have larger populations, it would seem, given our proximity to NY, that we should have the second most tests. It is unclear how much blame Murphy should take. It's better than horrible but it could definitely be better.
We are 9th in tests/1Million population
NY/LA/MA/RI/VT/DC/UT/NM/NJ/ND/WA
With the exception of New York & Louisiana, the rest of the states have similar rates. Smaller states have administered fewer tests overall but their percentage is comparable to us.
Our percentage of positive results to the total is extremely high - hovering around 45%. As you have mentioned previously, this is a really high number. Regardless of any restrictions in place, it is very easy to find COVID-19 positive patients. Restrictive testing is not really an issue. The lack of tests is the issue.
IHME updated their projection today. Total US deaths are still about 61,000. NJ projected deaths have declined to 3915 from 9690 on 4/6. The national range of uncertainty in total deaths has increased slightly from a min/max of 31/130 to 26/155.
The NJ dashboard says we have 1663 ventilators in use - 60% of capacity. If we are indeed past peak, we should be able to get through without the hospitals being overrun with cases. That is a good thing.
IHME updated their projection yesterday and now are committing to an update every three days. Total projected US deaths increased to 68841 and the national range of uncertainty in total deaths increased again to a min/max 30/175. NJ projected deaths increased from 3915 to 4407.
The NJ dashboard says we have 1626 ventilators in use - 55% of capacity. The good news is we seem to be increasing capacity but the bad news is there was not a meaningful drop in the number of ventilators in use. Our critical and ICU bed totals are now 1126/925, which looks to have increased in the last few days. We still remain comfortably below capacity.
The divert list continues to jump between 3 & 8 hospitals. The hospitals remain the same as previously reported.
Although IHME projections indicate our peak hospital resource use was on April 9, Commissioner Persichilli is saying our peak date is April 25. The link is https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...alizations-expected-health-officials-say.html
Below are the important paragraphs
With New Jersey cases and deaths still rising, though at a slower rate, health officials now predict the state’s peak in hospitalizations with the coronavirus will hit 15,922 patients on April 25 — a little later than what was predicted a few days ago.
Of the 15,922 people projected to be hospitalized at the new peak, 3,821 are expected to be in critical care, with 3,503 on ventilators, Persichilli said Tuesday at the state’s daily coronavirus press briefing.
As of 10 p.m. Monday, 8,185 people in New Jersey were hospitalized with COVID-19 or under investigation for it. Of those, 2,051 were in critical care and 1,626 were in ventilators.
Below are the important paragraphs
With New Jersey cases and deaths still rising, though at a slower rate, health officials now predict the state’s peak in hospitalizations with the coronavirus will hit 15,922 patients on April 25 — a little later than what was predicted a few days ago.
Of the 15,922 people projected to be hospitalized at the new peak, 3,821 are expected to be in critical care, with 3,503 on ventilators, Persichilli said Tuesday at the state’s daily coronavirus press briefing.
As of 10 p.m. Monday, 8,185 people in New Jersey were hospitalized with COVID-19 or under investigation for it. Of those, 2,051 were in critical care and 1,626 were in ventilators.
IHME updated their projections from April 13 to April 17
1. Projected US deaths declined from 68841 to 60308
2. The range of uncertainty is tighter from Min/max of 30/175 to 40/140
3. Projected NJ deaths increased from 4407 to 6952
4. NJ Ventilators in use decreased from 1626 to 1594 (54% of capacity)
5. Critical and ICU bed totals decreased from 1126/925 to 1134/827
6. The divert list is between 1 & 5 hospitals
I have a lot of respect for the effort IHME has put into their projections along with their willingness to share their work. Honestly, I don't understand a lot of the underlying assumptions but I read it anyway.
That being said, my feeling is that their projections in the areas I know about have not been particularly accurate. Below is a white paper that attempts to quantify their accuracy level. It's not particularly flattering.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04734.pdf
I think part of the problem is the speed with which data is incorporated into the model. Each iteration is more accurate than the last (at least in theory) but underscores the difficulty of projections that are updated in real (or near real) time. Science is a messy business and as much as we'd like it to be linear, real life conditions make such linearity difficult.
Thank God IHME (and other) organizations are working hard to address these issues so we can move forward as quickly and safely as possible
That being said, my feeling is that their projections in the areas I know about have not been particularly accurate. Below is a white paper that attempts to quantify their accuracy level. It's not particularly flattering.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.04734.pdf
I think part of the problem is the speed with which data is incorporated into the model. Each iteration is more accurate than the last (at least in theory) but underscores the difficulty of projections that are updated in real (or near real) time. Science is a messy business and as much as we'd like it to be linear, real life conditions make such linearity difficult.
Thank God IHME (and other) organizations are working hard to address these issues so we can move forward as quickly and safely as possible
That is simply the nature of this syndrome. Most are not going on the ventilator for a day or two and then recovering -- it's more like a week or two.
There was absolutely no reason to close the nearly half-million acres of state parks and forests. The odds of spreading disease - in OPEN AIR - over the course of a 50-100 acre park are infinitesimally small. And our neighbors in NY agree. The unemployment process and system are a mess, and he vowed to have NJ at the forefront of technology. Aid to small businesses has come slowly or not at all. He keeps talking about re-opening schools in mid-late May. WTF? Why? Finish out the year on remote learning, rather than bringing a boatload of kids and teachers in masks for a month.
There's no perfect way to do this. People freak out about why they can go to a crowded grocery store but not to work, well, it's all about minimizing the risk. You cannot eliminate all the risk. But wearing a mask and minimizing exposure to others outside your household to just the essentials, maybe 1-2x/week at the grocery store as compared to regular life is a lot over the grand scale, and important to help and really brings down the exposure potential for now.
I think the parks and such were closed as a reactionary point to the scenes from NYC where the parks became the only place people could go. They were packed. Heck my neighborhood is packed. There are more walkers, bickers, strollers than ever before, LOL!! People have to zig-zag around because it's all anyone can do. You have to get out there or you'll go nuts, so we just have to be smart and accept what's going on. People won't be smart if they don't accept it.
Trying to keep Americans in one spot under any circumstances is daunting. Even if you're trying to get them to understand you're trying to prevent the spread of a highly contagious new virus that doesn't have a clear treatment. I'm moderately surprised it's worked as well as it has for the past 4-5 weeks and yet we still have 40k+ deaths in that short span.
I think the parks and such were closed as a reactionary point to the scenes from NYC where the parks became the only place people could go. They were packed. Heck my neighborhood is packed. There are more walkers, bickers, strollers than ever before, LOL!! People have to zig-zag around because it's all anyone can do. You have to get out there or you'll go nuts, so we just have to be smart and accept what's going on. People won't be smart if they don't accept it.
Trying to keep Americans in one spot under any circumstances is daunting. Even if you're trying to get them to understand you're trying to prevent the spread of a highly contagious new virus that doesn't have a clear treatment. I'm moderately surprised it's worked as well as it has for the past 4-5 weeks and yet we still have 40k+ deaths in that short span.
I agree. Here are yesterday's numbers per the portal
6986 Total Hospitalizations
1594 On Ventilators
Critical Care/ICU 1134/884
Mostly the numbers are trending downward which is a good thing. At a minimum the surge that Commissioner Persichilli referenced on April 12 does not seem like it will come to pass. Overall, it is my opinion that the hospital system in conjunction with the state have done a tremendous job of surging capacity in a little over five weeks. I believe the fear of the system being overwhelmed was justified and the fact that it hasn't happened is due to their combined efforts. I feel it is important to note when things go right.
The downward trends are terrific news and reinforce what's been done to date, which was absolutely necessary.
The next question: Now what? We cannot stay like this for an indefinite period, but have to weigh that against a new spike, which would be worse. Obviously if we can get a proven, effective treatment up within the next month, confidence to resume will be back.
And the Federal Government cannot even get the funds out properly to people. Plus there isn't any alignment between the Feds and the private banking/finance/whatever types; bills keep coming.
All of that is fair.
On the state parks, apparently they were getting too crowded. I'm ok with your criticism but I'm an err on the side of caution type of person so I am not upset about the closings. Though I do agree it is time to open parks up.
Agree on schools. No reason to go back at this point. They should remain closed.
My kids will not be going back this year regardless of the decisions they make.
1. I agree we cannot indefinitely self-isolate and in my opinion a second spike is inevitable.
2. We are at least a year away from a vaccine and in my opinion several months from a proven, effective treatment. Getting the science right and scaling up to the size we need will be an enormous challenge.
3. Each state is different but as we just discussed, New Jersey has done the needful in getting the healthcare system as ready as possible. The last month+ was critical and successful, in my opinion.
4. I have no way of knowing but my feeling is we are where we are regarding preparedness. It's not like we can easily scale up capacity (say) another 25%. I think the limiting factor now is people. Front line workers always work hard but this disease has challenges that make things harder still. It's easier to build/buy/repair a ventilator than it is to find a new ER nurse.
5. As a practical matter, we may simply have to deal with our really high positive test ratio (which leads the world). The need for testing on a massive scale is real, but we aren't there yet. Until we get that under control, there really is no way to effectively contact trace. We may just have to continue to treat the sick, and learn later on who a mild case and who was asymptomatic. It's really frustrating but we still several weeks away from the level of tests it looks like we need.
In the meantime, I hope you stay safe and healthy.
kk
IHME updated their projections on April 22
1. Projected US deaths increased from 60308 to 67641 (Closer to where they were 10 days ago)
2. The range of uncertainty is again tighter from Min/max of 40/140 to 50/120
3. Projected NJ deaths increased slightly from 6952 to 7058
4. NJ Ventilators in use decreased from 1594 to 1462 (47% of capacity) (The high was 1705)
5. Critical and ICU bed totals are stubbornly the same (more or less) from 1134/827 to 1035/955
6. The divert list is no longer much of an issue.
This was in the newspaper this morning.
I was surprised Pittsburgh did not have higher numbers.
It seems proximity to NY/NJ is a larger influence than density.
I was surprised Pittsburgh did not have higher numbers.
It seems proximity to NY/NJ is a larger influence than density.
This was in the newspaper this morning.
I was surprised Pittsburgh did not have higher numbers.
It seems proximity to NY/NJ is a larger influence than density.
Well that explains why UPMC is going full throttle on resuming elective surgeries.
No scientific evidence to support this but my guess is that Berks County and Lehigh County are higher due to the high concentration and density of the Hispanic community and Reading and Allentown. We have had seven employees test positive and all were Hispanic.
Columbia county is adjacent to Geisinger which probably employs half the population in Columbia and Montour counties. Healthcare workers have more exposure and getting positive test results.
Just waiting for Wolf to open up the golf courses again… LOL
The average stay on a ventilator is closer to 3 weeks. And the mortality rate is very high.
Compare to a typical pneumonia case ouch might be on a vent for 3 or 4 days. And mortality is very low.
Major difference
This was in the newspaper this morning.
I was surprised Pittsburgh did not have higher numbers.
It seems proximity to NY/NJ is a larger influence than density.
Would love to see something like this for every state.
If you overlay I80 and I78, they are direct links to NYC.
I80 feeds Pike, Monroe, Lackawanna (Scranton)
I78 feeds Northampton and Lehigh (Allentown)
A decent number commute by car and bus to those areas.
They are also known drug routes from NYC. Higher profits for stuff sold in Eastern PA. It accounts for the traffic across to Harrisburg and down into Reading (Berks County). I doubt that industry abided by the shutdown.
I80 feeds Pike, Monroe, Lackawanna (Scranton)
I78 feeds Northampton and Lehigh (Allentown)
A decent number commute by car and bus to those areas.
They are also known drug routes from NYC. Higher profits for stuff sold in Eastern PA. It accounts for the traffic across to Harrisburg and down into Reading (Berks County). I doubt that industry abided by the shutdown.
Last edited:
At RWJBarnabas Health, cases have started to decline, with 1,441 COVID-19 positive and PUI patients in their facilities, down from 1,473 yesterday. Peak number of cases, 1,710, on April 13. Given they are one of the two the largest system in the state along with Hackensack/Meridian, very good sign.
It's a true rolling outbreak. Let's hope we've stopped the roll.
For example, I read today that Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) - the largest for-profit system in the country with nearly 200 hospitals nationwide - have only treated 5,500 patients given their geographical footprint (mostly Midwest/South/SE). Contrast that with Atlantic/RWJB, some small pockets like Tower in eastern PA, etc.
Of course given where their hospitals are located that could change with some of the States in their backyard now aggressively re-opening.
For example, I read today that Hospital Corporation of America (HCA) - the largest for-profit system in the country with nearly 200 hospitals nationwide - have only treated 5,500 patients given their geographical footprint (mostly Midwest/South/SE). Contrast that with Atlantic/RWJB, some small pockets like Tower in eastern PA, etc.
Of course given where their hospitals are located that could change with some of the States in their backyard now aggressively re-opening.
