ERRORS FOUND: Florida's positivity rate is skewed. #FOX35 went through #COVID19 test reports & found
- Thread starter thehall07
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if you go through the data, and you total the number of positives reported at every lab that had over 50% positives, that's 12,134 positives. The total number of positives florida has reported is 291,629. So if you assume all those positives reported >50% + labs are erroneous, the data would be off by 4.2%. Meaning even if this is true its still very bad. Is it 4% better than reported? sure maybe
because people are stupid and they made mistakes at some places. if you look at the data it looks like some places transposed positives and negatives. it happens, but the end result is something like 4% off, not a massive conspiracy wherein everything in florida is fine
I honestly don't see the value in positivity rate. The important statistics that are easy to measure without reliance on innumerous numbers of hands at testing sites are hospitalizations, ICU beds and deaths with some regression analysis against age and co-morbidity.
Exactly. What will be interesting to be measuring is length of stay when hospitalized. With more knowledge and various therapies now being used, more patients are being treated effectively and being released sooner.
The only thing that really matters is hospitalizations relative to capacity. People are going to get sick, we just need the ability to treat them (which we have). The rest is largely noise. Case counts make for nice sound-bites and headlines but really don't matter too much.
I agree that hospitalizations and deaths are more important overall but I think the positive rate can be one of the trend indicators that we watch to help understand what is happening. In Florida for example, the positive rate started creeping up, then hospitalizations and now it appears that deaths are increasing.
At a minimum, it can help drive public messaging about the precautions we should be taking.
the positivity rates tells you if the increase in positives is purely a result of increasing overall tests or not
My point is that keeping the healthcare system's nose above water is the original public concern, and IMHO, it is the important one. Public policy on restrictions should be based on that and not on how many people have it without serious symptoms (i.e. hospitalization).
This is the problem with government. They say one thing, you (citizens) say okay. Then they move the goalposts and box you in. Give them an inch, they take a mile.
Amazing how the stated goal was to flatten the curve and preserve hospital system capacity. We did that. Yet we still have all of these nonsense restrictions in place.
That's fine. I am not taking issue with that at all.
I agree. This is, and always has been about healthcare systems. That is the most important thing. I'll just clarify my thoughts on why the positive rate might be useful.
Is there anything we can identify before we see a surge in hospitalizations that can help us predict and prepare for and maybe even lower that surge?
Like I said, in Florida the rate of positive tests was an alert that their healthcare system could be impacted soon. Now their healthcare system is getting hit rapidly.
In July so far, they have added 330 new hospitalizations per day.
In May it was 150 per day.
In June it was 148 per day.
Are they on pace to get overwhelmed? Had Florida acted once they started seeing the positive rate start to increase, would their healthcare system be in a better position today?
I don't follow the statistics closely enough to know, but I'd imagine the June average is driven by lower counts earlier in the month that crept up later in the month so following that trend line should be sufficient.
Considering the current number of Covid patients in FL hospitals is over 9,000, I think your model there is a bit flawed.
The entire state of Florida has 12,918 available beds as of today.
Also the 330 was an average. Last three days have been 384, 458 and 495.
In July, their 7 day average new admissions has been growing 4.8% per day.
That is not a sustainable trend. In fact, if that trend continues, they will hit capacity in under 3 weeks.
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No. Are you saying that no one else will need a hospital other than Covid patients in the next three weeks?
A political difference is clouding your view here.
Is that your new tactic when your argument falls apart?
Your numbers were based on people going into the hospital and never getting discharged. You said Florida would be out of capacity in 3 weeks. I don't see it.
Not a tactic at all. Your just missing something.
Theoretically on what day would the hit 9,000 current inpatients if they are adding 200 admissions to day and the stays last 12 days?
Math says they wouldn’t but here we are... so your assumptions are flawed.
If new admissions and discharges both maintain the current trends of growth, they will face significant challenges in 2 weeks and will exceed capacity in about 3.
Remember, this is all hyper-local. Hospitals in one part of the state may get near or at capacity while others in that same state may have plenty of beds. That may not be of any help to the near full hospitals. It's also why state and local officials are more important than a politically biased national plan is. Federalism.
Right, it is regional. As hospitals start to fill up they will divert to others. As the regions fill up, that is when it becomes a problem and the current trends are not sustainable for them.
Why is a national plan politically biased?
Doesn’t have to be the same rules in every state but we should have had a national plan from the beginning. It impacts us all.
Regional seems too broad.
You see all the moaning and groaning from the right and left over the issues like cutting off travel, wearing a mask, etc.
Also, I strongly believe in federalism as much as possible.
"If new admissions and discharges both maintain the current trends"
You cited 330 and then added a 3 day trend and your "If"
That's your "if" and its assumption.
IF I use cardboard to jack up my car, it might fall down.
IF it continues to rain for the next 30 days, we will have a flood.
Yes, IF Florida continues exponential growth in Covid cases, their bed capacity will run out.
Exactly. Glad you understand now.
IF the trends of increased daily admissions continues, they will run out of room.
Nice try Einstein. There is nothing to understand other than you have a keen sense for the obvious. No sh_t if the the trend continues exponential, they will be overwhelm. Again, you cited a 3 day trend and declare an emergency.
My post was referencing your number 330, with discharges and admissions, they will not be overloaded in three weeks. Nothing more. You twist things to your liking and then to try to act as if you are providing great insight.
Here is one for you: If we have no rain for 30 days, we will have a drought!
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It’s fine that you chime in from time to time, but you missing the context that others here have been discussing this for months.
The trend in daily admissions hit a low in June and has been increasing since. I said back then The increase was still manageable but that could change if they aren’t proactive. A month later that daily average has more than tripled.
So yes, while they could manage it if it only stays at 330 per day... their trend since June suggests that it is not stopping there.
I saw this trend happening a month ago, and others liked to post snarky comments like yours back then as well.
They are proving reopening with no restrictions is not possible with large dense populations.
This is what I said.
I’m talking about the trend, and you’re talking about one day.
How long is this trend sustainable for Florida?
Then don't reply to my messages or perhaps get a life and don't spend 24/7 on this board nit-picking and responding to every post.
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Then don't reply to my messages or perhaps get a life and don't spend 24/7 on this board nit-picking and responding to every post.
24/7 is probably on the high end, but I like my life thanks. Worked a half day, made a pie with my kids With the blueberries we picked a couple days ago, just finished movie night and now I’m checking my phone as they get ready for bed before I read to them.
I’ll also keep posting as I like, especially if someone responds to something I say but doesn’t understand what I am saying.
Why are we still talking about this?
I clarified in my next post and said that average was increasing About 5% per day, and that trend (the growth in daily admissions) was not sustainable.
And again, that was in the context that we have been discussing that trend here for a while.
I first raised concerns about that trend here when the 7 day average number of daily admissions had increased to over 150 after it was steadily on the decline after they closed down to a low of 108 on June 6. That indicted to me that the virus was spreading in Florida again and I asked at what point that becomes a problem.
Now over 300, it is becoming a problem for them.
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