On the brink of War

[Pirata]

Growing tired of posting about COVID deaths I thought I'd start a thread about the impending invasion.

This situation is scary familiar to Hitler, sans concentration camps.

Then again if China and North Korea start flexing their muscle, the concentration camp issue comes into play.

I was pleased to see Germany jump in with their sanctions.

When I hear Putin starting to put himself in the same league as Catherine the Great, it doesn't bode well. If he's contemplating his own mortality and is trying to go down in history as one of the greatest Russians, it's hard to tell how far he will go.

 

[Pirata]

I split this post into to avoid too long a post. Having recently read a book on Churchill, I became aware of how long the turmoil went on in Europe before the United States jumped in. Hitler had already taken many countries including France and was on the brink of invading England.

England was heavily bombed in Churchill pleaded with Roosevelt for hell. The political climate in the United States prevented Roosevelt from getting involved early but ultimately we had to jump in.

I worry history is repeating itself.

 

[ed odowd]

Putin trying to make Russia a world power again before he dies.Who knows where he goes next and I think he realizes Biden is not a strong President and that creates an opportunity to get more power.

 

[Pirata]

Putin believes that Gorbachev gave away the store when he busted up the USSR.

A large impetus behind Hitler's moves to recapture territory was based on his dissatisfaction with the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I

The similarities are scary.

 

[HALL85]

Putin believes that Gorbachev gave away the store when he busted up the USSR.

A large impetus behind Hitler's moves to recapture territory was based on his dissatisfaction with the Treaty of Versailles at the end of World War I

The similarities are scary.

Good summary. Putin just looks unstable and trying to create his legacy. It is scary when you look at the parallels that you mentioned. Wild card is where is China in all this?

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Putin trying to make Russia a world power again before he dies.Who knows where he goes next and I think he realizes Biden is not a strong President and that creates an opportunity to get more power.

The former president licked his boots. Who can forget Trump saying he believed Putin over our FBI in 2018, truly an embarrassing display.

As for the current situation I dont see this going the way of a full invasion of Europe like Pirata brought up. I guess Putin could make a play for some of their former territory, but what do they gain versus what it would cost them?

 

[SHUMA04]

The root cause of this crisis is a turf war precipitated by a combination of NATO expansion and a Soros-sponsored regime change in Ukraine ("Orange Revolution") in 2005. The Orange Revolution was one of the early so-colored "color revolutions" that preceded the disastrous Arab Spring on 2011-2013.

After the Cold War, we promised Russia that NATO would no longer be targeted at Russia and that we would not expand it into former Warsaw Pact countries.

Unfortunately for whatever reason (perhaps in a misguided attempt to maintain its relevance) we continued expanding NATO into the former Eastern bloc and also continued to keep missiles on those areas pointed towards Russia.

In 2008, right after the Orange Revolution, NATO went a step further and paved the way for both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

This catalyzed the war in Georgia in 2008 as the country is effectively in the bosom of Russia.

Ukraine is much more problematic because it's absolutely crucial to Russia both because of energy transit routes as well as the fact that Kiev is the spiritual and cultural home of ethnic Russians and the Russian Orthodox Church. (There is also the issue of strategic access to the warm water port in Crimea on the Black Sea.) The Ukraine has never really been an independent country with an independent identity until it was carved off by anti-Orthodox Bolsheviks after 1917.

For these reasons, any attempt by NATO or other powers (eg Israel, which has interest due to historic rabbinical traditions) to control the Ukraine is problematic for Russia and Putin.

Frankly, it can be argued that Russia's position is no less unreasonable than either the Monroe Doctrine or that of JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

 

[silkcitypirate]

The root cause of this crisis is a turf war precipitated by a combination of NATO expansion and a Soros-sponsored regime change in Ukraine ("Orange Revolution") in 2005. The Orange Revolution was one of the early so-colored "color revolutions" that preceded the disastrous Arab Spring on 2011-2013.

After the Cold War, we promised Russia that NATO would no longer be targeted at Russia and that we would not expand it into former Warsaw Pact countries.

Unfortunately for whatever reason (perhaps in a misguided attempt to maintain its relevance) we continued expanding NATO into the former Eastern bloc and also continued to keep missiles on those areas pointed towards Russia.

In 2008, right after the Orange Revolution, NATO went a step further and paved the way for both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

This catalyzed the war in Georgia in 2008 as the country is effectively in the bosom of Russia.

Ukraine is much more problematic because it's absolutely crucial to Russia both because of energy transit routes as well as the fact that Kiev is the spiritual and cultural home of ethnic Russians and the Russian Orthodox Church. (There is also the issue of strategic access to the warm water port in Crimea on the Black Sea.) The Ukraine has never really been an independent country with an independent identity until it was carved off by anti-Orthodox Bolsheviks after 1917.

For these reasons, any attempt by NATO or other powers (eg Israel, which has interest due to historic rabbinical traditions) to control the Ukraine is problematic for Russia and Putin.

Frankly, it can be argued that Russia's position is no less unreasonable than either the Monroe Doctrine or that of JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Has Israel weigh in on this ?

 

[cernjSHU]

The root cause of this crisis is a turf war precipitated by a combination of NATO expansion and a Soros-sponsored regime change in Ukraine ("Orange Revolution") in 2005. The Orange Revolution was one of the early so-colored "color revolutions" that preceded the disastrous Arab Spring on 2011-2013.

After the Cold War, we promised Russia that NATO would no longer be targeted at Russia and that we would not expand it into former Warsaw Pact countries.

Unfortunately for whatever reason (perhaps in a misguided attempt to maintain its relevance) we continued expanding NATO into the former Eastern bloc and also continued to keep missiles on those areas pointed towards Russia.

In 2008, right after the Orange Revolution, NATO went a step further and paved the way for both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

This catalyzed the war in Georgia in 2008 as the country is effectively in the bosom of Russia.

Ukraine is much more problematic because it's absolutely crucial to Russia both because of energy transit routes as well as the fact that Kiev is the spiritual and cultural home of ethnic Russians and the Russian Orthodox Church. (There is also the issue of strategic access to the warm water port in Crimea on the Black Sea.) The Ukraine has never really been an independent country with an independent identity until it was carved off by anti-Orthodox Bolsheviks after 1917.

For these reasons, any attempt by NATO or other powers (eg Israel, which has interest due to historic rabbinical traditions) to control the Ukraine is problematic for Russia and Putin.

Frankly, it can be argued that Russia's position is no less unreasonable than either the Monroe Doctrine or that of JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Sounds like you bought Putin’s justification hook line and sinker. So you think this is similar to the Cuban middle crises when Russia has its ballistic missiles 90 miles off the coast of the U.S.? It’s not.

Moreover, Putin is a murdererous thug dictator that is not interested in anything but recapturing the former Soviet Union’s empire and influence.

Russia is going to have eastern Ukraine. The question is do they push past it. Do they go to Kiev? That is a very dangerous expansion that puts NATO in a difficult position and threaten Poland. Quite frankly, as much as we may not like The Saudis, they become very important to crank up production of oil to bring down the cost so Europe stays united against Russia.

 

[HALL85]

Finished watching the four part series on LBJ on CNN last night....totally different situation obviously that Viet Nam, but some parallels but more importantly sharp contrasts in what is happening now with Ukraine.

Right or wrong, the American public is going to judge this administration on what happens with our energy costs over the next several months.

 

[SHUSA]

i am worried about chinas stance here. seems like theyre going to be an ally of russia.

i just dont understand why this is a big US problem?

 

[cernjSHU]

i am worried about chinas stance here. seems like theyre going to be an ally of russia.

i just dont understand why this is a big US problem?

Any Russian incursion into a European nation concerns the US. We have to be very careful that Western Europe does not rely on Russia for energy. If that creates a fissure between the US and Europe, then that will give the green light to further Russian expansion. And this would be disastrous for US and European unity.

History repeats itself. And this looks eerily similar to Hitler’s justification to go into The Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia. If Putin’s aggression goes unchecked, Ukraine will not be the only country he invades. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be threatened. Those are NATO countries and that will mean the beginning of World War 3.

Or perhaps Russia moves against Finland since they are not part of NATO.

 

[SHUSA]

Any Russian incursion into a European nation concerns the US. We have to be very careful that Western Europe does not rely on Russia for energy. If that creates a fissure between the US and Europe, then that will give the green light to further Russian expansion. And this would be disastrous for US and European unity.

History repeats itself. And this looks eerily similar to Hitler’s justification to go into The Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia. If Putin’s aggression goes unchecked, Ukraine will not be the only country he invades. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will be threatened. Those are NATO countries and that will mean the beginning of World War 3.

Or perhaps Russia moves against Finland since they are not part of NATO.

Yea so what is NATO and respecrive countries really doing about this? Finland wont budge. their entire existence is to repel Russia.

 

[SHUMA04]

Sounds like you bought Putin’s justification hook line and sinker. So you think this is similar to the Cuban middle crises when Russia has its ballistic missiles 90 miles off the coast of the U.S.? It’s not.

Moreover, Putin is a murdererous thug dictator that is not interested in anything but recapturing the former Soviet Union’s empire and influence.

Russia is going to have eastern Ukraine. The question is do they push past it. Do they go to Kiev? That is a very dangerous expansion that puts NATO in a difficult position and threaten Poland. Quite frankly, as much as we may not like The Saudis, they become very important to crank up production of oil to bring down the cost so Europe stays united against Russia.

Putin’s entire ethos is “decommunization,” not recreating the Soviet Union. If anything, he can be accused of trying to recreate Tsarist Russia and rehabilitating Russia’s Orthodox identity (which has issues, but is diametrically opposed to the Soviet communist ideologies).

If you’d like to run a quick sense check on the above, constrast Soviet times when it was the American left that was accused of collaboration versus today when it’s the American right.

Diplomacy is about understanding other peoples’ values, history and ideologies. The Ukraine is a tinderbox and it’s utterly core the ethnocentric and religious identity of pre-communist and pre-Soviet Russia for over a millenium.

The real question is whether this is tinderbox is worth drafting the Ukraine into NATO and obliging all of NATO (including us) into mandatory military action under Article 5.

Clearly, given the deeply assymetric strategic and cultural importance this has to Russia over us here in the USA, I would argue it’s unwise even to the point of recklessness.

 

[SHUMA04]

i am worried about chinas stance here. seems like theyre going to be an ally of russia.

i just dont understand why this is a big US problem?

This is an astute point. Post-communist Russia expected the West to be its ally. It’s extremely weary of communist China.

For whatever reason, the West has both increasingly trended towards Marxism itself since the end of the Cold War and also simultaneously given Russia a stiff arm.

As a result, Russia seems to be backed out of necessity into an alliance of convenience with China. This is potentially a real tragedy as China is the single greatest threat to America and the West, not Russia.

America should be working together with Russia to contain China. Oddly enough, when one digs into money trails and cronyism, it seems that there is plenty of “collaboration” within Western governments and institutions (including the Vatican) with China and virtually nothing of that sort with Russia.

 

[ed odowd]

Why didn’t Putin invade when Trump was President.Rumor has it that Trump told him he would have to hit Moscow if he did.Putin doubted he would do that but decided to wait till Trump was gone .Story in NY Post today.

 

[SPK145]

I split this post into to avoid too long a post. Having recently read a book on Churchill, I became aware of how long the turmoil went on in Europe before the United States jumped in. Hitler had already taken many countries including France and was on the brink of invading England.

England was heavily bombed in Churchill pleaded with Roosevelt for hell. The political climate in the United States prevented Roosevelt from getting involved early but ultimately we had to jump in.

I worry history is repeating itself.

The Splendid and The Vile

 

[SHallguy2]

Ukraine produces wheat, barley and rye that much of Europe relies on, while also a being a big producer of corn. The takeover of Ukraine gives Putin much more resources and power. He of course is not going to apologized for anything he steals.

Besides natural gas, Ukraine is loaded with minerals like coal, iron, titanium, and other non-metallic raw materials. It's the leading country when it comes to reserves of iron, titanium, and non-metallic raw materials. Russia's fight with Ukraine will have a spillover effect on the coal and electricity sector.

Interesting times ahead. A weak America opens the door for aggression around the world. The future wars will be fought in our financial institutions and our power grid.

 

[Hallsome]

Why didn’t Putin invade when Trump was President.Rumor has it that Trump told him he would have to hit Moscow if he did.Putin doubted he would do that but decided to wait till Trump was gone .Story in NY Post today.

Nahh, trump licked his boots.

 

[SHUSA]

f'ng russia

 

[SHallguy2]

f'ng russia

Guy is shaking hands with his right hand while the left hand is twisting a knife in your back. He is former KGB agent, who is playing a much different game. He was waiting for an opening, a weak link and he now has it. Give him a foot and he takes a yard. Biggest mistake was not accepting Ukraine into NATO. He is not going to tip his hand, but NATO should be in discussions now discussing and preparing for more aggression.

 

[SPK145]

Well it’s no longer on the brink, full scale invasion. What do we do?

 

[shu09]

Well it’s no longer on the brink, full scale invasion. What do we do?

Nothing, nor should we.

Years ago we should have tried to take Putin out somehow. Too late for that now.

 

[SHallguy2]

Well it’s no longer on the brink, full scale invasion. What do we do?

Need to get the NATO alliance together and get out in front of what might be his next form of aggression. Assume and be prepared for a cyber attack.

 

[SHallguy2]

Nothing, nor should we.

Years ago we should have tried to take Putin out somehow. Too late for that now.

We may find ourselves sitting in the dark. He clearly wants the old Soviet Union back. We cannot stop what’s happening in Ukraine, but we should be prepared for future aggression. The guy who was suppose to get us into a war is gone so we should be fine. Our current President will take him behind the garage and take him out in hand to hand combat. Seriously, we should immediately open back up the keystone pipeline and go all in on energy independence, or get ready for widespread inflation. Russia is going to cripple our economy.

 

[HALL85]

Well it’s no longer on the brink, full scale invasion. What do we do?

Putin is daring NATO to act and he seems to have enough support from China to soften the sanctions that have or will be placed.

Wouldn't be surprised if cyber attacks ramp up and not only in Ukraine.

 

[cernjSHU]

Putin is daring NATO to act and he seems to have enough support from China to soften the sanctions that have or will be placed.

Wouldn't be surprised if cyber attacks ramp up and not only in Ukraine.

Ukraine is sacrificed. This is Czechoslovakia with the Germans. I would hope full economic isolation of Russia should happen. Freeze all Russian assets. When I hear that representatives of Italy want an exception so that they can still sell Ferraris and Guicci to Russian makes me sick. NATO must stand together and isolate Russia economically.

We also need the oil producing countries in the Middle East to ramp up production to ease oil prices especially in Europe.

Meanwhile, NATO needs to build up troops in Poland and the Balkin States. A message to Putin that there is no further expansion.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Sickening the world watches Ukraine get bent.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

Not a funny situation, but you guys are talking about boarders. Where have you guys been the last few years? Boarders are racist. LOL

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Not a funny situation, but you guys are talking about boarders. Where have you guys been the last few years? Boarders are racist. LOL

People who stay somewhere are racist?

 

[SPK145]

Ukraine is sacrificed. This is Czechoslovakia with the Germans. I would hope full economic isolation of Russia should happen. Freeze all Russian assets. When I hear that representatives of Italy want an exception so that they can still sell Ferraris and Guicci to Russian makes me sick. NATO must stand together and isolate Russia economically.

We also need the oil producing countries in the Middle East to ramp up production to ease oil prices especially in Europe.

Meanwhile, NATO needs to build up troops in Poland and the Balkin States. A message to Putin that there is no further expansion.

Why just Middle East ramp up production? How about the U.S. and Canada do as well???

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

Not a funny situation, but you guys are talking about boarders. Where have you guys been the last few years? Boarders are racist. LOL

This is such a terrible comparison, but so on brand for the new Republican party. A nation invading a sovereign nation versus illegal immigrants crossing our border.

FYI, I'm in favor of a strong border.

 

[SHUHoopsFan]

This is such a terrible comparison, but so on brand for the new Republican party. A nation invading a sovereign nation versus illegal immigrants crossing our border.

FYI, I'm in favor of a strong border.

Making fun of ourselves. Lighten up. My mothers family is from the western part of the Ukraine so I’d guess this has more impact on my family than yours but I can still make fun of what’s going on in this country. I still highly doubt if we had strong leadership Putin would even consider attacking the Ukraine. Right now we’re a joke worldwide and other countries are acting like they’re world leaders not us. Instead we get people talking about how this will take focus off climate change. You can’t make this shit up.

 

[SHallguy2]

This is what happens when you elect a weak and not very smart President. If Joe just followed Trumps energy policies we would not be in this mess. Love him or hate him energy independence kept Putin at bay. Changing these policies was a sign of weakness and his opportunity for aggression.

 

[afghan whigs]

Just don't let this distract you from the real issue of Climate Change!?!

Kerry this week: “I am concerned in terms of the climate efforts that a war is the last thing you need with respect to a united effort to try to deal with the climate challenge…We hope we can compartmentalise, but it's just made that much more difficult.”

 

[SHallguy2]

Just don't let this distract you from the real issue of Climate Change!?!

Kerry this week: “I am concerned in terms of the climate efforts that a war is the last thing you need with respect to a united effort to try to deal with the climate challenge…We hope we can compartmentalise, but it's just made that much more difficult.”

View embedded media

God help us! A band of fools.

 

[SPK145]

Is there a bigger loser than John Kerry??

 

[SHallguy2]

Is there a bigger loser than John Kerry??

No. I honestly believe he means well just has an absolutely clueless thought process. He believes other leaders around the world think like us. Even though Putin is murdering people, we should not let that interfere with talks on climate change. I'm sure there are some on this board who will defend his position.

 

[Merge]

No. I honestly believe he means well just has an absolutely clueless thought process. He believes other leaders around the world think like us. Even though Putin is murdering people, we should not let that interfere with talks on climate change. I'm sure there are some on this board who will defend his position.

Do you know what the interviewer asked him though? I am not sure what the question was... but given he is the "U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate" - I am guessing he was probably asked specifically about climate change. Hard to have an opinion on the answer without the question.

 

[ed odowd]

It doesn’t matter what the US does regarding climate change if China and India do nothing.The dreamers in the climate change religion feel if we set a good example they will follow.Our emissions are down in the last 20 years and they both have emission increasing significantly.Unfortunately we have to suffer climate prophets of doom whose continual predictions of the end of the world happen as soon as the prior predicted date passes and we are still here.