POLITICS - HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION

[Merge]

No reason Congress can't do both. The impression (and reality) is that they are consumed with the investigation. I have the good (or bad) fortune to have had direct conversations with members of Congress and stuff they said to expect to happen (lay-ups) isn't even close.

I don't disagree that they are consumed by impeachment currently. There was smoke to be perused regarding obstruction of justice, but the Ukrainian issue lit a fire that can't be ignored. It's not like congress has been effective leading up to it though. This is a consuming topic and it will distract congress from being ineffective to slightly more ineffective.

Politically for democrats I don't like impeachment. In principle though I think there is more than enough to warrant them moving forward with the hearings.

 

[HALL85]

I don't disagree that they are consumed by impeachment currently. There was smoke to be perused regarding obstruction of justice, but the Ukrainian issue lit a fire that can't be ignored. It's not like congress has been effective leading up to it though. This is a consuming topic and it will distract congress from being ineffective to slightly more ineffective.

Politically for democrats I don't like impeachment. In principle though I think there is more than enough to warrant them moving forward with the hearings.

Yes, I think the point of the focus group is that it is a distraction to the Ohio voter and when they don’t care much about it all. I hear a lot of the same comments from our employees and people in the community. I don’t think this helps the Democrats at all as we approach 2020.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Personally, I think four things have gotten us to where we are today, all of which are inter-related.
1-The decline of the MSM news-For anyone over the age of 60, the news was never a profit center for the networks and there was integrity (and content) in print news. Cable TV and the internet has changed all that and ratings and speed are now driving the content and our behaviors. Ratings are best when you pit one side against another.

Speaking of, did you see where ABC News used a clip from a firing range and mistakenly reported it as fighting in Syria? How are mistakes like that made?

I also read something about a reporter going undercover at CNN and making recordings that validate all that the conservatives fear the MSM to be -- or something to that nature. I haven't dug into that one yet.

 

[Merge]

Yes, I think the point of the focus group is that it is a distraction to the Ohio voter and when they don’t care much about it all. I hear a lot of the same comments from our employees and people in the community. I don’t think this helps the Democrats at all as we approach 2020.

I agree, but keep in mind support for Nixon's impeachment was around 19% when the senate hearings began. Public opinion can change as we learn more and there is plenty of time until November 2020. I'd think they don't want the hearings rolling into 2020 though, so things will move fairly quickly.

 

[HALL85]

I agree, but keep in mind support for Nixon's impeachment was around 19% when the senate hearings began. Public opinion can change as we learn more and there is plenty of time until November 2020. I'd think they don't want the hearings rolling into 2020 though, so things will move fairly quickly.

Anything in government “moving quickly”… Now there’s an oxymoron.

 

[SnakeTom]

Congress will vote by political party rather than by what the evidence shows. He will be impeached but not convicted by the senate. The real jury however is the 2020 election where the voters will decide just as they should. I just do not like the precedent being set of attempts to impeach every time the President and Congress are of a different party. But with the current state of polarization as it now exists in this country it seems that is the road we are headed towards.

Tom K

 

[Merge]

Congress will vote by political party rather than by what the evidence shows. He will be impeached but not convicted by the senate. The real jury however is the 2020 election where the voters will decide just as they should. I just do not like the precedent being set of attempts to impeach every time the President and Congress are of a different party. But with the current state of polarization as it now exists in this country it seems that is the road we are headed towards.

Tom K

We have to find a way to change the culture of political divisiveness and that in my opinion will have to start with the tone at the top. The next president will need to do a much better job at uniting the country than Trump (and yes, even better than Obama). But just because the environment is divisive, that doesn't mean we can ignore blatant abuses of power from the executive.

I honestly don't believe Trump is capable of putting the interest of the country over his own personal interests which essentially makes him a risk to US policy and national security. Trading foreign aid for investigations into political opponents for example is insane and directing Sondland (as he will apparently testify) to send a text denying the existence of a quid pro quo on the day the IG informed congress of the issue just shows a pattern of obstructive behavior that is beyond something we should allow from the president.

I would prefer democrats beat Trump soundly at the polls, but he has already shown no regard for the law to go after his biggest 2020 threat. If he is not held accountable, what is to say he won't do the same thing to any other dem candidate making deals with other countries.

I agree that the senate would currently not convict, but the camel is starting to wobble with all of the straw on its back.

 

[shu09]

We have to find a way to change the culture of political divisiveness and that in my opinion will have to start with the tone at the top. The next president will need to do a much better job at uniting the country than Trump (and yes, even better than Obama). But just because the environment is divisive, that doesn't mean we can ignore blatant abuses of power from the executive.

I honestly don't believe Trump is capable of putting the interest of the country over his own personal interests which essentially makes him a risk to US policy and national security. Trading foreign aid for investigations into political opponents for example is insane and directing Sondland (as he will apparently testify) to send a text denying the existence of a quid pro quo on the day the IG informed congress of the issue just shows a pattern of obstructive behavior that is beyond something we should allow from the president.

I would prefer democrats beat Trump soundly at the polls, but he has already shown no regard for the law to go after his biggest 2020 threat. If he is not held accountable, what is to say he won't do the same thing to any other dem candidate making deals with other countries.

I agree that the senate would currently not convict, but the camel is starting to wobble with all of the straw on its back.

Your post is well intentioned, but there also needs to be a change in Congress. The two political parties look out for themselves over anything else. Nearly every issue and vote is partisan. Until that changes and compromise returns, the overall tone won't change a bit.

 

[HALL85]

Your post is well intentioned, but there also needs to be a change in Congress. The two political parties look out for themselves over anything else. Nearly every issue and vote is partisan. Until that changes and compromise returns, the overall tone won't change a bit.

Agree and it goes well beyond Congress. I think it’s naïve to think that the president can have a major impact on the tone and divisiveness we see today. You can argue with whether you thought Bush was an effective president or not but he was generally a respectful and thoughtful leader and speaker. Congress, MSM, social media all need to change.

 

[Pirata]

Had Mother Teresa been elected as a Republican, the left leaning portion of the MSM and the House would be skewering her.

Hall85 made 4 points a few posts back. One was referring to the MSM. I could not agree more. Fox, CNN,MSNBC, WAPO, WSJ, et al, are in this for the ratings and money. Rush, Hannity, Maddow, Mathews, and the rest, have made handsome livings by constant one-sided bashing of the other side.

I recently heard the expression, "it's never about what it is about". Very fitting with respect to the Ukraine phone call. If it truly was about that phone call, impeachment would be going nowhere. The impeachment is not about the phone call, it is about impeachment.

Snake's OP suggested the Dems should try to beat Trump at the ballot box. They are. Given they do not have a viable candidate with a platform, the platform has become impeachment. Regardless of our political leanings, we should all be concerned about the precedence being set. We are in essence, eliminating elections as established by the constitution. It will not matter anymore who gets elected. The new norm has been established and we might as well get used to it. Despite Merge's noble hopes, do not see it changing.

My hope is that the country that will all knew will endure. From a historical perspective, it is not out of the question that the United States falls to the same fate of the Romanovs, the Hapsburgs, the Romans,, etc.

 

[SnakeTom]

I honestly don't believe Trump is capable of putting the interest of the country over his own personal interests which essentially makes him a risk to US policy and national security. .

I could not agree more with this statement.

TK

 

[SnakeTom]

You can argue with whether you thought Bush was an effective president or not but he was generally a respectful and thoughtful leader and speaker..

I did not agree with President Bush on policy but absolutely agree that he was/is a decent person & deserving of respect unlike our current President who uses the office to personally attack his opponents as well as previous Presidents.

Tom K

 

[HALL85]

I did not agree with President Bush on policy but absolutely agree that he was/is a decent person & deserving of respect unlike our current President who uses the office to personally attack his opponents as well as previous Presidents.

Tom K

Yes, and despite him being a decent man, the MSM was harsh and relentless on him. I'm not going to sit here and defend Trump's behavior, but Congress and the MSM had a chance to rise above it, but instead are acting no better than him and in some cases much worse.

 

[HALL85]

Watching this debate and it seems like it went upside down tonight. Biden, Bernie and Warren are flailing while Yang, Buttigieg, Gabbard and even Klobucher making coherent points. Beto, Booker, Harris, Castro and Styer treading water.

Warren is just so hard to listen to and watch. And the all corporations are evil is a non-starter.

 

[SnakeTom]

Watching this debate and it seems like it went upside down tonight. Biden, Bernie and Warren are flailing while Yang, Buttigieg, Gabbard and even Klobucher making coherent points. Beto, Booker, Harris, Castro and Styer treading water.

Warren is just so hard to listen to and watch. And the all corporations are evil is a non-starter.

I disagree. I think Biden had his best night so far. Maybe because everyone is now going after Warren as front runner. I thought Klobucher looked very good also as did Mayor Pete. Warren held her own with all the arrows aimed at her. Harris looked weak and the others are nonfactors. As you know I am not a fan of Booker but I suspect that he may well be the VP choice of either Warren or Biden. My guess is that Bernie eventually withdraws & endorses Warren.

TK

 

[HALL85]

I disagree. I think Biden had his best night so far. Maybe because everyone is now going after Warren as front runner. I thought Klobucher looked very good also as did Mayor Pete. Warren held her own with all the arrows aimed at her. Harris looked weak and the others are nonfactors. As you know I am not a fan of Booker but I suspect that he may well be the VP choice of either Warren or Biden. My guess is that Bernie eventually withdraws & endorses Warren.

TK

Sorry Tom but we see that one differently. Biden can get out his few scripted points but he has shown no ability to counterpunch in these debates. I lost count of the number of times he said “the fact of the matter is…”

Yang to me as a curious candidate in that he has a lot of nontraditional support and continues to raise money. And he continues to do better in these debates. I don’t see Booker as a vice presidential candidate. What does he deliver? Any Dem presidential candidate has New Jersey locked up as well as most of the black vote anyway.

My surprise VP pick if Warren gets the nomination is that she will take Bloomberg. Wall Street is skittish about Warren and would be grudgingly throw their money behind Trump. But paired with Bloomberg it might quell some of that.

On a related note, good timing for Pelosi to announce they are not taking the vote on impeachment inquiry right before the debate so it doesn’t get any play. Smart move on her part because this is going nowhere anyway. why risk putting any candidates at risk in those swing districts. So much for anyone “moving quickly”.

I gotta run now and go “clip some coupons”.

 

[Merge]

Well you are both kind of right on Biden. He wasn't good but it was his best debate thus far. He is just really not strong on a debate stage.

There wasn't a clear winner from my view as there was in past debates and each candidate has different goals at this point (Warren performing well with the front runner target, Biden easing concerns about his son and not looking too old, Sanders easing concerns on his health, Klobuchar, Booker, Castro setting themselves as potential VP or future cabinet pick etc... )

In my opinion, I don't think there will be any movement in the polls from that debate. Most accomplished what they wanted to accomplish.

There was a clear loser for me though. Harris was terrible.

 

[Merge]

My surprise VP pick if Warren gets the nomination is that she will take Bloomberg. Wall Street is skittish about Warren and would be grudgingly throw their money behind Trump. But paired with Bloomberg it might quell some of that.

Not a bad call. I'm not sure she would go for that but she could certainly do worse.

On a related note, good timing for Pelosi to announce they are not taking the vote on impeachment inquiry right before the debate so it doesn’t get any play. Smart move on her part because this is going nowhere anyway. why risk putting any candidates at risk in those swing districts. So much for anyone “moving quickly”.

It was smart to announce that before the debate but there is really no upside in holding a vote right now. It doesn't change anything.
They are still going to have the same schedule of hearings. It actually is moving fairly quickly right now with pretty much a hearing a day that supports the impeachment narrative.

 

[SPK145]

Here's a press release related to an older Democrat debate. (Yes, they're one of my clients, I'm shilling!!!):

https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...Debates-Failed-Capture-Attention-Swing-Voters

Democratic Debates Failed to Capture the Attention of Swing Voters – But Have Captured Some Key Demographics for Advertisers, According to New 605 Data
August 08, 2019 10:36 AM Eastern Daylight Time

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--605, an independent TV measurement and analytics firm that offers advertising and content measurement, full-funnel attribution, media planning, optimization and analytical solutions, today released a report based on its analysis of TV viewership data gathered before, during and after the Democratic Party’s presidential primary debates held in Detroit, Michigan, on July 30-31, 2019.

...

 

[HALL85]

. It actually is moving fairly quickly right now with pretty much a hearing a day that supports the impeachment narrative.

I'll make a friendly wager on that...

 

[Merge]

I'll make a friendly wager on that...

That it is moving quickly? Not sure how much faster it could go. One ten hour hearing each day since they got past the WH stonewalling.

I'd put the odds around 70-75% that the house votes to impeach before the end of 2019, and the senate voting to convict him to be much lower, around 10%.

 

[HALL85]

That it is moving quickly? Not sure how much faster it could go. One ten hour hearing each day since they got past the WH stonewalling.

I'd put the odds around 70-75% that the house votes to impeach before the end of 2019, and the senate voting to convict him to be much lower, around 10%.

10% and 0%

 

[Merge]

10% and 0%

Recent polling showed support for impeachment and removal to be above 50%. If that keeps creeping up, republicans are going to see the writing on the wall and try to salvage 2020.

With Sondland testifying tomorrow and dems calling Bill Taylor to testify next Tuesday, we should know in about a week how significant this story is. If there is testimony and evidence that we held back the aid to Ukraine for an announcement of an investigation into Biden, I'd increase those odds a bit. If not, then your odds may be about right.

 

[HALL85]

Polls...lol

 

[Merge]

Polls...lol

Polling matters. If the internal GOP polls start to show that the public has turned, and the GOP will likely face a landslide loss in 2020 because of Trump, they will try to mitigate those losses.

 

[SnakeTom]

Polling matters. If the internal GOP polls start to show that the public has turned, and the GOP will likely face a landslide loss in 2020 because of Trump, they will try to mitigate those losses.

If things start looking really bleak for a Trump re-election . it's not too late for a serious GOP candidate to enter the primary race. But there must be a consensus for who that candidate might be for the others to rally around.

Tom K

 

[Merge]

I'd put the odds around 70-75% that the house votes to impeach before the end of 2019, and the senate voting to convict him to be much lower, around 10%.

I'm going to need to bump those up a bit after Taylor's testimony today. Trending 85%, 20%.

 

[HALL85]

I'm going to need to bump those up a bit after Taylor's testimony today. Trending 85%, 20%.

No change

 

[HALL85]

Anyone see Biden on 60 Minutes last night? Painful. No way he gets the nomination...about as uninspiring a guy as you will find. Nora threw him softballs and he continued to bunt...

 

[Merge]

Agree with your assessment. Uninspiring, unprepared and unimaginative.

 

[SnakeTom]

Agree with your assessment. Uninspiring, unprepared and unimaginative.

But still far preferable to keeping Trump for 4 more years of chaos.

TK

 

[HALL85]

But still far preferable to keeping Trump for 4 more years of chaos.

TK

The problem though is that he won’t even get the Dem nomination.

 

[Merge]

The problem though is that he won’t even get the Dem nomination.

Based on his performance so far, I don't think he will be the nominee but he still has a good chance He has been performing horribly and is still leading in almost every poll. A strong performance in the next couple of debates may be enough for him, but he needs some major improvements.

 

[HALL85]

Based on his performance so far, I don't think he will be the nominee but he still has a good chance He has been performing horribly and is still leading in almost every poll. A strong performance in the next couple of debates may be enough for him, but he needs some major improvements.

He has the same chance as Rutgers getting an NCAA bad this year… Maybe.

I don’t see anything that would give me pause to think that he can make a major improvement in the next debates. Joe is what he is, and I don’t think he even grasps what he needs to do.

If he doesn’t win Iowa and New Hampshire and begins to lose the African American support in South Carolina, it’s all over.

 

[SnakeTom]

Trump is doing whatever he can to knock Biden out of the box. That tells me Biden is the one he fears the most in a general election.

TK

 

[HALL85]

Trump is doing whatever he can to knock Biden out of the box. That tells me Biden is the one he fears the most in a general election.

TK

Agree...I think Trump would prefer to run against Warren.

Not sure if you saw the 60 Minutes piece, but I found it ironic that Biden spoken about restoring the dignity of the office and then called Trump an idiot. He can't help himself, which is why he won't get the nomination with Trump's help or not.

 

[SnakeTom]

Agree...I think Trump would prefer to run against Warren.

Not sure if you saw the 60 Minutes piece, but I found it ironic that Biden spoken about restoring the dignity of the office and then called Trump an idiot. He can't help himself, which is why he won't get the nomination with Trump's help or not.

No I did not watch 60 minutes this week. I was too busy suffering after watching the Jets game.

Tom K

 

[Section112]

No I did not watch 60 minutes this week. I was too busy suffering after watching the Jets game.

Tom K

Someone needs to restore the dignity of NY football. Both teams are a complete mess.

 

[SPK145]

Someone needs to restore the dignity of both major political parties. Both are a complete mess.

 

[HALL85]

Goes to show how much changes in just a month.
* Harris drops out after starting out strong in the first debate.
* Warren may be self-destructing with her Medicare for All position.
* Biden is in fourth place in Iowa and New Hampshire and generating zero excitement. Still in the lead nationally, but I still think he doesn't make the final four (running out of money).
* Bloomberg is in and spending $30 M.
* Bernie just losing ground slowly.
* Buttigieg surging.

Final four looking like:
* Buttigieg (thought he was the likely outsider two months ago)
* Warren (will hang on and take Bernie's votes)
* Klobuchar (suck up Biden's support)
* Dark Horse (Yang or Bloomberg)

Next to drop? Booker, but he may get enough of lift from Harris' supporters to hang on and make December debates.