POLITICS - HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION
- Thread starter SnakeTom
- Start date
My thoughts: The election will be decided in the midwest rust belt states. The Dems would be best off nominating a candidate from that region. Personally I like Klobochar but doubt the she will be the nominee. If you want a true dark horse it could be Sharrod Brown if he can be convinced to throw his hat into the ring. I would not rule out Biden however. As to Booker it looks to me that he is strictly running for VP.
Tom K
Tom K
Harris ran a bad campaign honestly. She never really figured out how to navigate her record as a prosecutor with trying to be a progressive candidate. I thought there was still time for a course correction and I am surprised she bowed out.
Every time I start to warm up to Biden, he opens his mouth and reminds me why he is not leading for my vote. In my opinion, I think Biden should announce his VP pick before the Iowa caucus to get people excited. Short of that, I don't see him winning the nomination.
Warren did make a big mistake with her M4A position. Also plenty of time for her to start a course correction there but needs to start now.
Sanders seems to bounce between 13% and 20% consistently. If Warren drops out, I think he picks up a good chunk of her support and would be the new leader but I'm not sure she would pick up the same level of support if Sanders dropped out.
Klobuchar is the wild card for me in that I am not sure why she hasn't gained more support to date.
Buttigieg keeps doing well. Still my favorite candidate even though he doesn't have the experience I would prefer. Almost zero support from African American voters though and that is a pretty big problem after Iowa.
Not really sure what void Bloomberg fills at this moment. I don't see him gaining much traction unless Biden drops out.
Every time I start to warm up to Biden, he opens his mouth and reminds me why he is not leading for my vote. In my opinion, I think Biden should announce his VP pick before the Iowa caucus to get people excited. Short of that, I don't see him winning the nomination.
Warren did make a big mistake with her M4A position. Also plenty of time for her to start a course correction there but needs to start now.
Sanders seems to bounce between 13% and 20% consistently. If Warren drops out, I think he picks up a good chunk of her support and would be the new leader but I'm not sure she would pick up the same level of support if Sanders dropped out.
Klobuchar is the wild card for me in that I am not sure why she hasn't gained more support to date.
Buttigieg keeps doing well. Still my favorite candidate even though he doesn't have the experience I would prefer. Almost zero support from African American voters though and that is a pretty big problem after Iowa.
Not really sure what void Bloomberg fills at this moment. I don't see him gaining much traction unless Biden drops out.
Agree on Harris...awful campaign. She had no aspirational message, was all over the place on issues, and essentially defined her lane as the "black female". Then she ran the HRC play of blaming everyone else for why she had to drop out.
Disagree on Biden announcing his VP candidate now. It boxes him in a corner and no one worth their salt would accept taking that role so early because it gives them zero options if Biden flames out. And let's face it, no one really cares about the VP anymore. As we've learned, your VP choice can hurt, but not going to give you any positive lift. And if you're depending on your VP choice and timing of it to save your campaign, you've got much bigger problems.
I actually agree that Sanders has a better chance to outlast Warren than Warren outlasting Sanders. She is going to continue to get attacked non-stop for her healthcare "plan".
Bloomberg is all about being the insurance policy for Biden. If Joe continues to struggle and gaff his way across the country, or worse yet, if something damaging comes out about Hunter, he'll be done sooner than later.
Any change on your opinion on impeachment?
All but certain in the house now.
99.99% impeached by the house and 20% chance he is convicted by the senate from my view.
Joe’s problem is Joe. Nothing inspiring when he is live and there is a magnifying glass on the gaffs. Commercials can’t do much about that.
What do you think about Bloomberg’s and Steier’s commercials?
Agreed. Joe is best when he isn't live. I think people like the idea of 2008 Joe.
Honestly only saw one Steyer ad and no Bloomberg ads to date so don't really have an opinion on the quality. Just thought that one from Biden was pretty effective.
Quite a ways away from that 10% and 0%.
While I would agree a senate conviction would be unlikely at this point, I do think it is much higher than zero. In my opinion it rests on 3 republican senators if they move forward and which witnesses they would subpoena. If they get Pompeo, Bolton, Mulvaney and Guilliani to testify then I think the chances Trump will be convicted will be well beyond 20%.
Between Romney, Collins, Murkowski and Sasse I think they will have the votes for subpoenas, and if they do it will just be a matter of if one of them says something which hurts public opinion on Trump.
Zero percentalones
Applying your previous margin of error of 90%, that sounds about right.
Do we really need to go back and check all the times your predictions and conspiracy theory outcomes were wrong???Applying your previous margin of error of 90%, that sounds about right.
It is very sad that a serious question such as this will be decided by 100% partisan votes. The House Dems voting to impeach and the Senate GOP voting no conviction. A better question is does he deserve to be removed from office? The answer to that is of course YES.
Tom K
Tom K
Do you believe he cares about corruption in Ukraine?
I will respect your opinion as I do think you are the least partisan person on this board, but from my view he only cares about helping himself.
I don't think he cares about corruption in Ukraine at all, no.
To have a good understanding of who Donald Trump is and how he operates, it's fundamental to understand that he does nothing unless there is a potential benefit for himself or his finances.
agreed.
That is why in my opinion, the founders wrote the remedy for such a person into the constitution... and that is his actions are worthy of impeachment when he puts his own interests over the country’s.
Also agreed.
I would not vote to convict him at this point. There is enough evidence to indict him and move forward with a trial.
If Pompeo Bolton and Mulvaney testify and there is no additional evidence, I would not expect a conviction.
Of course they do so NY, San Francisco, LA and Chicago can vote the next President into office. Why would they care about anyone else in the country having a say in those little old thinking fly over states?
If Texas looks like the Democrats hope it will by 2024 or 2028. The entire middle of the country wouldn’t matter at all in deciding the outcome and that will essentially be the exact same thing.
The concept may have outlived its usefulness. Each state would still have their own representation and a popular vote would make the process more democratic and encourage participation from every voter in every state.
Interesting that you are so concerned about the founders intentions when it comes to impeachment but don’t care about them when it comes to the electoral college...#hypocrite?...#blindpartisan?
Lol, I have the full expectation that the electoral college will heavily favor democrats in the near future and yet I’m partisan to think it has outlived its usefulness?
In all honesty, if you think the electoral college is operating as designed by the founders then I would recommend reading up on the subject. It is not close to operating as they expected it would.
And that is among the reasons why he should be removed from office. All you have to do is listen to the things he says and the things he does. Call it partisan if you like, but there are many people both Dem & GOP who would make much better Presidents which is what I said in the original post on this thread..
Tom K
Actually I think the Bloomberg ad's are pretty impressive. Of course they are only ad's. But I do like Bloomberg. He is not up and down the line echoing party positions. Basically a Social liberal and economic conservative on many issues. I do not know that he is electable however. Seems to be too New York which is not a good selling point in much of the country.
Tom k
Of course it is and as I said before I would prefer that he be removed from office by the electorate in the 2020 election. I'm just disappointed that none of the Republicans put their hat into the ring to give the GOP voters an alternative choice as their party's candidate.
Tom K
Because it’s politics and no one is going to risk their career to get pummeled in a primary. Neither party has many folks with character and integrity or we wouldn’t be in the position that we are today. Just like this whole impeachment process is political. The recession is not happening and no surprise they are concerned bigly about a potential trumps second term Otherwise they would wouldn’t give a shit about the Ukraine.
There are many more things that I like about Bloomberg then dislike. One of the best mayors NYC has had in the past 50 years.I was hoping for $130 million that these commercials would be more focused and aspirational.
I think it's 95% Trump will be impeached by the House and 10% he gets convicted in the Senate.
The narrative though will change drastically when the repubs control the narrative in the Senate.
Trump's call for Ukraine to investigate Biden for corruption when he did is real abuse of power and an impeachable offense. If he was so concerned about it, he should have asked much sooner, not when all of a sudden Biden is the favorite for the dem nomination. Don't even need quid pro quo, just asking is abuse of power.
Now of course Biden is corrupt also but that's a different issue.
I also think many/most/all recent presidents have abused their power to an impeachable level, nobody cares when it's their guy. See Andrew Napolitano for a real non-partisan view of this.
The narrative though will change drastically when the repubs control the narrative in the Senate.
Trump's call for Ukraine to investigate Biden for corruption when he did is real abuse of power and an impeachable offense. If he was so concerned about it, he should have asked much sooner, not when all of a sudden Biden is the favorite for the dem nomination. Don't even need quid pro quo, just asking is abuse of power.
Now of course Biden is corrupt also but that's a different issue.
I also think many/most/all recent presidents have abused their power to an impeachable level, nobody cares when it's their guy. See Andrew Napolitano for a real non-partisan view of this.
Of course... don’t take my posts to mean i think democrats are perfect. They aren’t. Once they have an electoral advantage they won’t care about the popular vote. I think that’s wrong.
I want to encourage participation in the process and I think we need a better way to make each vote matter.
It's entirely possible that you are correct that all recent presidents abused their power but like I said previously, I don't believe Trump is capable of putting the interest of the country over his own personal interests. Not sure if I would agree the threshold of an impeachable level would be met from my view of any of the previous presidents in my lifetime other than Clinton who deserved it for perjury.
I don’t think any of the previous presidents would have asked a foreign president to announce an investigation into a political opponent.
If we do not Trump accountable here, why wouldn’t he do it again? Especially considering that call was the day after Mueller testified. Trump clearly does not care about foreign election interference which is something the founders were all concerned with and wrote about.
Also going forward, what would be preventing Biden from calling a Zalensky aid and telling them he will double their funding if they help him win and come out and say Trump directly told them the money was held up until they would announce investigations?
There is definitely a lot of blame to go around on both sides of our government. Trump is so stupid to have those conversations with the Ukraine especially after the Mueller investigation and knowing he is being recorded. Just him probably having fun jerking around someone who needs our money.
With that said both parties are massive hypocrites and both deserve to be flushed down the toilet. To see the pandering by both parties in these hearings and listen to the words they are both saying to pander to their political bases is just disgusting. Do they really believe the crap that is spewing out of their mouths? Sad state of affairs all around.
While all this happens nothing gets done and their pensions get funded forever. What a racket!
With that said both parties are massive hypocrites and both deserve to be flushed down the toilet. To see the pandering by both parties in these hearings and listen to the words they are both saying to pander to their political bases is just disgusting. Do they really believe the crap that is spewing out of their mouths? Sad state of affairs all around.
While all this happens nothing gets done and their pensions get funded forever. What a racket!
