Sales Pitch discussion: Is Kentucky's recruiting stranglehold on the SEC slipping?
ESPN's panel talks SEC recruiting, including Kentucky's lost year, the rise of Alabama and the dark cloud that has hovered over the league's recruiting exploits.
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ESPN staff
ESPN continued its Sales Pitch (ESPN+) series this week, examining the men's college basketball programs in the SEC that have the most and fewest advantages in enticing recruits and transfers to campus. After seeing the results of our survey, ESPN.com's writing team of Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello, John Gasaway and Joe Lunardi debated some of the finer details within the SEC recruiting landscape, including whether Kentucky's 2020-21 performance was a sign of things to come, whether Alabama and Arkansas will have staying power on the trail, and the impact NCAA investigations have had on the perception of the league.
Follow this link to read what anonymous coaches said about recruiting in the ACC, the Big East, the Big Ten, the Pac-12 and the SEC.
What was your biggest takeaway from a star-studded Kentucky roster struggling as it did last season? Was it an anomaly, or a sign of something more worrying?
Medcalf: I don't think it was an anomaly. And it was less worrying than it was proof of the changes in college basketball. More than anything, I think Kentucky's struggles were more evidence that we're probably going to shed the "powerhouse" label in the coming years. I believe Kentucky, North Carolina and Duke will always have an edge based on the history and legacy attached to those names. But the diversified talent pool has just minimized the value of that edge. Kentucky had a talent problem. Sure, John Calipari had elite players, but he didn't have Cade Cunningham or Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs. A decade ago, those three players would have gone to Duke or Kentucky.It looks like, via the transfer pool and the addition of top-rated prospects, the Wildcats will bounce back. But I don't think we'll see programs dominate the game for a stretch of five, six, seven or eight years in a row anymore. We won't see another Kansas run in the Big 12. And it will be more difficult for Kentucky, UNC and Duke to separate themselves.
Through 2006, the top basketball prospects could either pick their favorite colleges or the NBA. Most still picked the blue bloods. The one-and-done culture -- and the success of NBA stars who didn't pick Duke, Kentucky or UNC (Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Paul George) -- has just opened the door for other programs and ventures. Top recruits know that if they're good enough, the NBA will find them, even if they're not playing for a perennial power. That will make it difficult for Kentucky to stay strong because this isn't a generation of talent that follows any trends. They kinda do their own thing. I don't think we'll see another once-in-100-years-subpar-record at Kentucky. But I do think Kentucky will experience a more turbulent stretch in the coming seasons.
Borzello: I don't think it was an anomaly, nor am I all that worried about it being a trend that continues moving forward. I do think it was a direct result of the changes we're seeing on the recruiting trail. Six or seven years ago, we could take the top 10 prospects in the country, roughly split them up between Duke and Kentucky, throw a few to Kansas and Arizona and North Carolina, and it wouldn't be too wrong.
It's different now. Top prospects are being spread out to far more programs than they were a decade ago, and it's led to a more level playing field. Sure, Duke and Kentucky will still get top-ranked recruiting classes -- but there's a huge difference between getting Nos. 3, 5, 8, 10 and 17 in the rankings and getting Nos. 7, 10, 26, 34 and 46. John Calipari could make up for inexperience when he had talent that was so superior to most of his opponents. Last year, there was inexperience and a lack of overwhelming talent.
Calipari has clearly noticed, opting to reload more heavily via the transfer portal this spring. He went out and landed four top-25 transfers, while also getting two five-star recruits and another top-35 prospect. Kentucky might not have a talent advantage on every program in the country, but the roster will be more experienced, balanced, versatile and deeper than last season.
Gasaway: There were perhaps several things going on at once with UK last season. For starters, this rotation turned out to be a little less star-studded than John Calipari likely expected in October. Isaiah Jackson looks like a late lottery pick, and it's probable Brandon Boston Jr. will hear his name called early in the second round. And, well, that could be it as far as Wildcats in the 2021 draft are concerned. Indeed, no UK player earned first- or even second-team 2021 All-SEC honors.
Then consider that the problem with this team, at least in SEC play, was its offense, and the problem with this offense was that ... Kentucky couldn't make 2s? Is this even possible with one of the best recruiting classes in the nation? Go figure, it happened. Per hoop-math.com, the Wildcats were just so-so at the rim and (relative to the respective Division I averages) downright hapless on 2-point jumpers. Did not see that coming.
To top it all off, these guys were done no favors by the hoops gods. You don't often see a team outscore its major conference by 0.02 points per possession on its way to a 9-16 overall record. Add all of the above together and, from top to bottom, it sounds like one slightly worrisome and possibly portentous anomaly followed by one curious oddity and capped off with one plain old fluke.
Lunardi: For me, it wasn't a coincidence that Kentucky and Duke -- arguably the most notable "one-and-done" programs in the country -- missed the NCAA tournament last season. Think about what was happening in the college basketball world last spring, summer and fall. No in-person contact with new signees, little if any summer ball on campus, a late start to preseason camp, marginalized practice time, etc. In other words, the opportunities for traditional team-building were extremely limited.
It's also no coincidence that many of the most veteran-laden, "together" teams -- we're looking at you, Gonzaga and Baylor -- were among the last ones standing. I'm not denying any of the reasoning of my esteemed colleagues going forward, but last season's results seem fairly easy to explain.