Trump takes South Carolina and Jeb bows out
- Thread starter NYShoreGuy
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Most likely. Bigger story is Cruz looking like he's coming in third. In a big Evangelical state, that's not a good sign for him. Have to think Carson drops soon as well.
They're gonna make Kasixh drop this week as well so they can push all their establishment support behind Rubio. One final push to try and take down Trump. Love watching one set of awful people try and stop an even more awful person who they helped create.
problem is out of rubio, cruz, trump trump is the least evil...trump can carry 13 states and win the presidency
rubio is roman catholic, there has been one president in us history who was roman catholic and that was jfk, don't feel he will get the chance to be the 2nd
Just to throw my 2 cents in there are candidates on both sides who may or may not make decent Presidents, but the only "evil" candidate in my mind is Cruz.
OK, I don't really like to use the word evil which another poster put into play, but I do think Cruz would be a terrible President.
TK
OK, I don't really like to use the word evil which another poster put into play, but I do think Cruz would be a terrible President.
TK
Absolutely agree. I am truly terrified of the prospect of a Cruz presidency. Thankfully, I don't think he can win the nomination.
I have given Trump a chance and think he has some very good ideas but I do not think I can "pull the lever" for him. Just too volatile for my taste and has little credibility when people challenge him on his past statements. Doesn't offer many, if any, specifics either.
I like Rubio personally but some of the positions he is taking are too far right for my liking (hopefully just in an effort to win the primary). I do think he will pivot hard towards the center-right should he win the nomination. He pretty much has to if he wants to win the general election. I could see myself voting for him if he does that.
As I've said before, Kasich is the best candidate on either side. It's a shame he doesn't stand much of a chance at this point. I hope he rides this tough stretch out and wins some states in the upper Midwest, but even that won't be enough in my estimation.
Didn't realize it, but the Trump organization employees over 25,000 people. It would be interesting to see who employs a higher percentage of Hispanics, blacks and females. Trump or Clinton?
Also thought it was curious that the hotel workers union in Nevada didn't come out and support either Clinton or Sanders. Would organize labor line up behind Trump and diverge from the Democratic candidate?
Also thought it was curious that the hotel workers union in Nevada didn't come out and support either Clinton or Sanders. Would organize labor line up behind Trump and diverge from the Democratic candidate?
They may not yet. The math of this gets really interesting if the party's goal is to block Trump. Ohio is a winner take all state so if polling is showing Kasich having a chance to win the state, they may want to keep him in the race to avoid a Trump delegate win. Right now if Trump hovers in the 35% range and doesn't win in CA, Texas, Ohio and NJ - He can't reach the number of pledged delegates.
Police unions are a wild card IMO in the organized labor world. The rest usually vote Democratic.
It isn't rational to think Trump picks up no support as others drop out. I think odds are Trump steamrolls Big Tues and puts a quick end to this primary season for the repubs.
So far after Paul, Christie and Fiorina dropped - Trump is no better than he was when they were all running. I can't see anyone that liked Jeb jumping on the Trump train... Trump would definitely get some support from Cruz, but I don't see him dropping anytime soon.
Trump will have some big wins on March 1st. Will be interesting to see how significant the wins are.
I'm just looking for a reason why Kasich is still in the race. Clearly no chance to win, and only polls well in 2 states. They have to be looking at blocking Trump somehow.
When all three were in the race they combined for somewhere around 6-8% Trump was in the mid-30's.
Now all three are gone and Trump is in the mid 30's
Trump is unlikely to get any Bush supporters because of the fights between the two of them. Bush supporters probably don't like Trump very much at all... but Kasich's supporters are much more likely to have Trump as their second choice. I believe that is why Bush dropped and not Kasich.
Bush bowing out pretty much guarantees Kasich will get the required 15% in Michigan which will take delegates away from Trump, and I think they are going to have him use that as momentum to try and carry Ohio which is winner take all.
Why else would Kasich still be in this race? I honestly believe it is because his supporters would go to Trump.
Kasich is still in the race cause Trump is a nut and the other two are losers and he is hoping sanity strikes eventually. Who is in second place right now? Cruz, right?
You think Cruz's supporters go to Rubio and not to the guy getting most of the support from the evangelicals? Trump is gonna steamroll the field and JK is his VP. When the primary season started, the Huffington Post said they would cover his campaign in the entertainment section of the blog. Now they talk of his winning easily.
No, I think Cruz is staying in the race as long as he can which may be long enough to prevent a Trump outright win. The majority of his supporters would go to Trump if he bows out.
I think both Rubio and Cruz supporters are most likely to go to Trump than the other R, and nobody else has the numbers to matter. What did Trump in SC by? 10%, not even close. And imo, many Carson supporters go to Trump too. They already hitched their star to a wack job, why not a real wacko...lol. Other than Rubio and Kasich, the guys standing are all outsiders so it is doubtful they send supporters to Rubio.
And I get the feeling that Cruz is on the way down with a bullet.
At this point Trump is definitely the likely nominee, but I do think the party is actively trying to block him and here is why Kasich is still in the race.
" It's not clear whether Kasich can beat Trump in the Buckeye State or if he is able to stay in the race all the way until March 15 when Ohio voters go to the polls. But, if Kasich could beat Trump in Ohio, you subtract 66 delegates from Trump's 1,246 — leaving him at 1,180, and just short of the nomination."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...237-delegates-he-needs-to-be-the-gop-nominee/
Trump may make an awful President, but you can't dispute the brilliance in what he has done. In a few short months, he's gone from an amusing sideshow to the favorite to get the Republican nomination. Along the way, he has singlehandedly blown Jeb Bush and his $120 million PAC our of the water after the third primary!!! He's flicked Paul and Graham off with little effort. He's gotten more of the Evangelical vote in South Carolina vs. the Evangelical poster-boy Cruz. He has dominated the media without spending his own money. And he's outed the mainstream media and made the "news" media look like complete idiots, to the point that they've lost a ton of credibility.
Brilliant because he's found the niche that resonates with working America and put a label on it (Common Sense Conservative). Let's face it, mainstream America prefers someone who is fiscally conservative, but more socially moderate. Up until now they have been forced to make a choice between two parties that are polarized on these issues, so they just split along party lines. He also seized the opportunity of the disgust that the country has with the President and Congress' 15% approval rating. (Anyone find it odd that there is so much anger with both even though gas is under $2/gallon and the unemployment is supposedly under 5%?).
And the most brilliant move is that he's created a third party from within the Republican party and now he's positioned to run against one of the most unlikable and polarizing candidates we've ever seen run for President in Hillary. The thing I keep wondering is if and when he pivots and changes his demeanor to look more charming and Presidential.
I may not like his politics, but I can admire what he's done and we all get a view into why he's been so successful despite the hair, tan, etc. I have to credit 75 because he saw this first while most were dismissing Trump in the early days.
Brilliant because he's found the niche that resonates with working America and put a label on it (Common Sense Conservative). Let's face it, mainstream America prefers someone who is fiscally conservative, but more socially moderate. Up until now they have been forced to make a choice between two parties that are polarized on these issues, so they just split along party lines. He also seized the opportunity of the disgust that the country has with the President and Congress' 15% approval rating. (Anyone find it odd that there is so much anger with both even though gas is under $2/gallon and the unemployment is supposedly under 5%?).
And the most brilliant move is that he's created a third party from within the Republican party and now he's positioned to run against one of the most unlikable and polarizing candidates we've ever seen run for President in Hillary. The thing I keep wondering is if and when he pivots and changes his demeanor to look more charming and Presidential.
I may not like his politics, but I can admire what he's done and we all get a view into why he's been so successful despite the hair, tan, etc. I have to credit 75 because he saw this first while most were dismissing Trump in the early days.
That is really the wild card for me. Not sure how he can do enough of a pivot to attract moderates without abandoning the support he has built on anger.
In all honesty, I think Trump would probably be a decent president policy wise... but you kill Obama constantly for being divisive. Trumps rhetoric on the campaign trail is the most divisive I have ever seen and is borderline dangerous in regards to immigrants and Muslims. I hope he pivots because we are really not far off form President Camacho.
Obviously a national average will contain some states higher and some states lower than that average.
Massachusetts and Nevada are the most favorable states for Trump. He will face a couple next week where he will be in the 20's.
Bob Woodward was on Morning Joe and was wondering why bad Trump info like Trump University doesn't make more of an impact. He forgets that the Trump phenomena is as much a revolt against the media as it is against the parties.
Not much to read from that yet. We'll know much more next week. Three times the number of Hispanics that voted yesterday voted in the Dem primary.
Rubio won among voters who decided within the last few days, Trump's supporters generally had decided a while ago
Merge, are you still sticking with that Trump is this year's version of Palin analogy? lol
I have no idea if he could pull that pivot off either. But you have to admit, getting 41% of the Hispanic vote in Nevada after the comments about Mexicans crossing the border is pretty amazing.
If you had to choose which candidate would be more charming as the campaign goes on, would you bet on Trump or Clinton? Let's face it, Hillary has been incredibly divisive during this race is well.
The Palin analogy was based on gaining loyal support for a very specific group of people with not much attraction outside that group. If Trump were not running and Plain were, I would bet she would be getting between 25-30% of the national vote. Not as high as Trump but the point is that neither has broad appeal.
He didn't get 41% of the Hispanic vote. He got 41% of the Hispanics that showed up for the republican primary based on a poll with a 10% error rate... and like I said, 3 times the number of Hispanics voted in the Dem primary which means of the Hispanics who voted in the primary - 90% of them voted for someone other than Trump.
and they have all been divisive... but politically towards each other not the American public. Trump is divisive against the politicians and the public talking about punching a protester in the face? Again... That kind of stuff works with a very specific subset on this country, but reasonable people understand that is not the kind of leadership they want in a President.
Comparing Palin to Trump is silly.
Trump got more votes than the other two combined. Record turnout - again.
I have been posting here long enough for most to know I am a liberal of close to bleeding heart levels. Trump is so clumsy and divisive when talking about the wall and about limiting Muslim immigration. I think this by design cause he understands that the commotion that follows helps his momentum. But, there is nothing wrong with insisting that people who immigrate here come legally and to say we will not tolerate open borders any more. We will still accept immigrants in vast numbers. One of my best friends was born in Liverpool and became a citizen. I was with a women and her brother in FLA who are both from Milan and follow the guidelines set forth by our immigration laws. So the argument about us being built on immigrants is BS to me. We also have laws and they should be followed. There is no doubt in my mind that libs crowing about the 14th amendment is just as vacuous as the NRA talking about the second amendment. Both amendments are clearly of another era and not applicable to the world we are living in.
And re the Muslim comment, though Trump never corrects when challenged on this statement, what he said was no more Muslims till we know what is going one, till we have a good handle on who is coming in. I am not sure that is crazy either considering the circumstances. I heard a guy compare it to having a few boxes of cheerios, and one cheerio was fatal if swallowed. So go fix your kids a bowl of cheerios.
Trump got more votes than the other two combined. Record turnout - again.
I have been posting here long enough for most to know I am a liberal of close to bleeding heart levels. Trump is so clumsy and divisive when talking about the wall and about limiting Muslim immigration. I think this by design cause he understands that the commotion that follows helps his momentum. But, there is nothing wrong with insisting that people who immigrate here come legally and to say we will not tolerate open borders any more. We will still accept immigrants in vast numbers. One of my best friends was born in Liverpool and became a citizen. I was with a women and her brother in FLA who are both from Milan and follow the guidelines set forth by our immigration laws. So the argument about us being built on immigrants is BS to me. We also have laws and they should be followed. There is no doubt in my mind that libs crowing about the 14th amendment is just as vacuous as the NRA talking about the second amendment. Both amendments are clearly of another era and not applicable to the world we are living in.
And re the Muslim comment, though Trump never corrects when challenged on this statement, what he said was no more Muslims till we know what is going one, till we have a good handle on who is coming in. I am not sure that is crazy either considering the circumstances. I heard a guy compare it to having a few boxes of cheerios, and one cheerio was fatal if swallowed. So go fix your kids a bowl of cheerios.
The other way to look at it is that he got the majority of the Hispanic Republican votes against two other candidates who are Hispanic!!! You would think his comments without damaging Rubio and the Cruz would have capitalized.
I question how strong Clinton's firewall is with Hispanic Democrats. She does seem to be going all in with the black vote though.
I am fine with Trumps comments about the wall and coming here legally... It was the murders and rapists stuff that was way over the line of something acceptable especially for a presidential candidate.
I am fine with Trump saying we should be cautious with who we let into this country... but his rhetoric about a database, ID cards, warrant-less searches has been crazy. He is riling people up beyond what is typically during this process to get support and I just don't think that is a good idea.
I am fine with Trump saying we should be cautious with who we let into this country... but his rhetoric about a database, ID cards, warrant-less searches has been crazy. He is riling people up beyond what is typically during this process to get support and I just don't think that is a good idea.
The riling is working, because primary voters are coming out in record turnouts. I almost think people are forgiving his bluntness because they so desperately want a change from the gridlock with both parties. I was watching CNN the other night and they had a campaign manager from Rubio's organization who was of Muslim descent and he was railing against Trump, but when he was asked if he would vote for Trump if he won the nomination, his response was that he would support the Republican candidate because the alternative of Hillary was totally unacceptable. I thought that was telling.
