I do not think Trump will be the nominee.
The majority of my Republican acquaintances feel the same way. "He is an a__hole but we liked his policies"
The media will be 10 times worse on him and he would not be effective.
Of course this is just like trying to predict who's going to win the super bowl next year and I could easily be wrong. I hope I'm not.
To be fair, the media always treats GOP presidents with intense vitriol. That went for Nixon, Ford, Reagan, both Bushes as well. It’s amazing that Reagan or even Bush Jr got as much of their agendas through given the hostility of the media. The media loves a defeated and neutered GOP presidential candidate (think Romney or McCain) only after the fact, but treats them quite differently in the moment.
“Like the policies, not the guy” was an especially common refrain during the GWB years as well. (“He’s not very bright, he speaks like a….”). With every passing day of the Biden catastrophe, the Trump era will only look like Camelot by comparison. Also, don’t underestimate how much a reversal of Roe vs Wade will boost Trump’s standing across much of America’s heartland (including key swing states such as PA, WI, MI, AZ, etc). For all of the media’s current hyperventilating, it won’t have much of an actual impact on blue states, who will just codify even more extreme abortion regimes at the state level, as in NJ.
I wouldn’t imagine that De Santis (who’s the only realistic alternative to Trump) will be treated any better than Trump by the media. It’s hard to isolate how much of the media’s vitriol in 2020 was simply a function of its increasing leftward radicalization, rather than of Trump’s obvious personal idiosyncrasies.
In the end, barring something unforeseen, it will almost certainly be Trump from the GOP. A lot of what I read in this thread are just the machinations of a shrinking and evermore-marginalized pool of NJ Republicans. Things look very different for the GOP outside of NJ. Meanwhile, I suspect it will be Biden for the Dems, though I wouldn’t rule out Hillary.
It’s extremely hard (and insanely expensive) to build up their level of name recognition and organizations. Those advantages will be virtually impossible to overcome, even for a rising star like De Santis, who may have to wait for 2028.
