http://healthindustryadvisor.com/pdfs/covid-19-2020-12-23-day244.pdf
For the data geeks. Good summary of stats and what is anticipated in the months to come. Also below is a summary of the data and other industry trends:
Also, we will receive more good news on the vaccine front today?
There are reports that Pfizer and the U.S. government are finalizing a deal for a second round of 100 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine. A key question is whether this round will become available in the second or third quarter of 2021. Our vaccination-availability model (presented in yesterday's report, linked here) suggests that the impact of this timing could translate to a 3-10 day difference in when all interested Americans would receive an initial dose of a vaccine.
For those of you like me who truly respect
Dr. Anthony Fauci - and, hang on his every word -
Andy Slavitt had him as a guest on Andy's daily "Inside the Bubble" podcast released this morning (linked here). Dr Fauci's telling of how we were able to develop the vaccine so quickly is a fascinating listen - spoiler alert, the underlying development of the mRNA platform for was underway for years.
Today's report is linked here for your review. Highlights:
Case, Hospitalization & Death Projections
Each Tuesday, the
Covid19 Forecast Hub produces an ensemble, 4-week forecast from more than 50 research and academic organizations
The ensemble forecast suggests a modest increase in detected cases next week, before these level off through mid-January
Deaths with the coronavirus are projected to increase, albeit slightly, this week and each of the next three weeks of the projection
By the middle of January, the ensemble forecast projects just fewer than 400,000 total deaths with the coronavirus in the U.S
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) routinely produces its own forecasts; two advantages of the IHME model - first, it extends to April 1 and, it includes scenarios for rapid vaccine rollout, mask mandates and easing of restrictions
IHME's model suggests that true infections (as opposed to detected cases) may have peaked on December 19
Under most of its scenarios, IHME projects that infections will decline significantly each month, from January through the beginning of April (the eased restrictions model suggests increasing infections until January 23)
Average daily deaths with the coronavirus are projected to continue to increase until about January 6, under the IHME's current projection (even later under the eased restrictions scenario). Following that, IHME projects a slowing in deaths in January and then more significant slowing in February and March
Tragically, IHME projects more than 500,000 cumulative deaths by March
IHME's projection of Covid-19 hospital bed requirements suggests that the strain from Covid-19 patients will increase for another three weeks - peaking at 40% higher than current levels - before falling sharply from that point forward
Current case and infection rates
Consistent with both IHME's and Gu's models (
presented yesterday as linked here),
newly-detected cases have been relatively flat for the past ten days
Countering expectations, the trend for 7-day new cases per capita is running lower than the pre-Thanksgiving trend and is now showing no increase in new cases per day
On a state-level, newly-detected cases per capita declined week-over-week in thirty-four states, including thirteen of the fifteen states that had the highest rates a week ago. The most significant exceptions to this are California and Tennessee, which now have the highest rates in the country
Hospital Use
There were 117,000 Covid-19 patients in the hospital yesterday, occupying 37.6% of all inpatient beds
Nevada, California and Arizona have the highest occupancy rates, with more than 2/3 of beds in use by Covid-19 patients; Hawaii, Vermont and North Dakota have the lowest rates, with fewer than 10% of beds in use by Covid-19 patients
Twenty-four states experienced increasing Covid-19 inpatient census week-over-week; twenty-four states experienced declining census; two states held steady week-over-week
