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Dr. Fauci gives grim projection

We have evidence from other countries data which suggests that the spread is not inevitable and it does not have to reach a certain percentage of the population to be controlled.

No such evidence exists.
 
Sure it does.

https://covid19-projections.com/france

France - 1 spike in death and they are essentially done.

https://covid19-projections.com/germany

Germany - 1 spike in death and they are essentially done.

New Zealand - They shut it down right away.

The virus did not need to spread through their population centers. The evidence is fairly clear.

Cases in France are currently climbing. According to you and all the other alarmists, hospitalizations and increased death will follow. Germany is seeing a slighter increase, may be the beginning of a spike. We don't know yet.

New Zealand never had more than 89 new cases in a single day. Disingenuous to look at them with other countries. It is a nation of islands with a population under 5 million (far less than New Jersey). Its total population is roughly that of the single state of Alabama.
 
Cases in France are currently climbing. According to you and all the other alarmists, hospitalizations and increased death will follow. Germany is seeing a slighter increase, may be the beginning of a spike. We don't know yet.

So If Germany and France do not see a 2nd wave of deaths within 1-2 months, would you concede the point?

As I have maintained all along. It has never been about the number of cases.
Unless we are testing everyone, we will never really know the number of cases. The number of cases should go up as we get better at testing.

The rate of positive tests to tests performed should not be increasing significantly as we get better at testing of the spread is being controlled.

France is currently at 1.7% positive rate.
Germany is 0.8%

The number of infections has increased because they are testing more people.
 
So why does US media and the politicians focus on case counts?
 
So why does US media and the politicians focus on case counts?

Depends on what you are talking about. Probably some bad and a few good reasons depending on the context of the discussion.

Case counts do matter, but only if there is more context around the numbers.

If we announce 100,000 cases tomorrow with 2 million tests, I would feel better about that if we announced 50,000 cases with 500,000 tests.

Some reporters will get that right but some won’t.
 
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So why are politicians begging people to be tested, symptoms or not? The flu also spreads asymptomatically, along with various other diseases. The answer is because they want to juice the numbers to make a scared public think they're doing something about it.
I’m not saying where I stand on these issues however I’ve now heard multiple stories of death certificates citing covid even though the death was something else. One or two deaths were certainly not related but the 3 others hypothetically could have been but prob a stretch. Generally speaking seems like people particularly politicians and media are taking advantage of a lot of unknowns.
 
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Depends on what you are talking about. Probably some bad and a few good reasons depending on the context of the discussion.

Case counts do matter, but only if there is more context around the numbers.

If we announce 100,000 cases tomorrow with 2 million tests, I would feel better about that if we announced 50,000 cases with 500,000 tests.

Some reporters will get that right but some won’t.
I haven’t seen a single mainstream report on what you’re saying “some will get that right” - because they don’t really care.
 
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Hi @Merge. I've been saying for months now Murphy will announce that all schools will start remote. You said that I will be wrong. Please read this article. It looks like unfortunately I will be right again. As I have said previously Murphy will cave in. I did state it seems like you don't understand the politics of NJ. The teachers association is very powerful.

https://www.nj.com/education/2020/0...n-murphy-to-start-nj-schools-remote-only.html

The unions and special interests are putting the squeeze on Murphy now. He will cave, as he is spineless.

What a disgrace these people are. The virus is no longer a problem in New Jersey, yet these cowards we call teachers and administrators don't want to go to work. Fire them all and get people who actually want to help young people. They say follow the data, facts and science. Well all of that says the virus is no longer a threat in New Jersey.

These people already get summers off, have had little to do since March and now they want another free ride while collecting their taxpayer funded salaries and benefits. So pathetic.

https://www.nj.com/education/2020/0...ups-say-in-unified-message-to-gov-murphy.html
 
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The unions and special interests are putting the squeeze on Murphy now. He will cave, as he is spineless.

What a disgrace these people are. The virus is no longer a problem in New Jersey, yet these cowards we call teachers and administrators don't want to go to work. Fire them all and get people who actually want to help young people. They say follow the data, facts and science. Well all of that says the virus is no longer a threat in New Jersey.

These people already get summers off, have had little to do since March and now they want another free ride while collecting their taxpayer funded salaries and benefits. So pathetic.

https://www.nj.com/education/2020/0...ups-say-in-unified-message-to-gov-murphy.html
Looks like Murphy caved to the unions and some larger districts. Now we will see if other districts that planned to go at least partially, will reverse course for only remote.
 
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So if schools will be going all remote, I can't wait to read about the furloughs for gym teachers, athletic directors, support staff, janitors, library staff, school nurses, etc.

Oh...wait. What a disgrace.
 
So if schools will be going all remote, I can't wait to read about the furloughs for gym teachers, athletic directors, support staff, janitors, library staff, school nurses, etc.

Oh...wait. What a disgrace.

Like I said. The governor will not be closing schools.
 
Like I said. The governor will not be closing schools.
But did he just open the door today?

Once he lets in to big districts like Newark/Elizabeth have home school only because teachers don't want to go into school, what is going to stop the union from telling members in other districts to refuse to attend in class learning? Biggest NJ teachers union is on record as saying school should be remote.
 
But did he just open the door today?

Once he lets in to big districts like Newark/Elizabeth have home school only because teachers don't want to go into school, what is going to stop the union from telling members in other districts to refuse to attend in class learning? Biggest NJ teachers union is on record as saying school should be remote.

Some may close.
Elizabeth lost several teachers to Covid, so I get why the teachers there don't want to go back yet.

The governor could have caved and closed schools. He didn't and said the districts need to show why they can't open and provide a timeline on when they can, and their plan to teach in the meantime.

That seems like a reasonable approach to me.
 
Some may close.
Elizabeth lost several teachers to Covid, so I get why the teachers there don't want to go back yet.

The governor could have caved and closed schools. He didn't and said the districts need to show why they can't open and provide a timeline on when they can, and their plan to teach in the meantime.

That seems like a reasonable approach to me.
I hope you are right, I guess we will see in next 2 weeks how many schools get waivers to stay closed. I just know the teachers union leadership which has lot of power over its members and state officials is pushing for all remote learning, as we know with the NCAA (since this is a college basketball board), once you open door for waivers, you often open pandora's box.
 
I hope you are right, I guess we will see in next 2 weeks how many schools get waivers to stay closed. I just know the teachers union leadership which has lot of power over its members and state officials is pushing for all remote learning, as we know with the NCAA (since this is a college basketball board), once you open door for waivers, you often open pandora's box.

It will be a bit of a balancing act but as a parent watching the reactions from other parents... people are absolutely flipping out about the possibility of schools going online only. I think the pressure to open schools is far greater than the pressure to close them.

I think most will make efforts to open up.
 
It will be a bit of a balancing act but as a parent watching the reactions from other parents... people are absolutely flipping out about the possibility of schools going online only. I think the pressure to open schools is far greater than the pressure to close them.

I think most will make efforts to open up.
Yes, pretty much all parents I know seem to want schools to be open, even if only partially.

Unfortunately, government and unions never seem to have the interest of the public when making decisions.
 
Yes, pretty much all parents I know seem to want schools to be open, even if only partially.

Unfortunately, government and unions never seem to have the interest of the public when making decisions.
How about high schools going remote since they are older. Use the HS classrooms for younger kids so to permit social distance in person learning at the K-8 levels?? Teacher shortages is a non issue because the in person stuff can still use live video feeds and TAs. Too many issue spotters and not enough problem solvers
 
And Paterson just opted out of opening, it seems the districts /schools that are the least prepared to offer online learning are the ones bailing first.
 
More evidence that the virus runs its course no matter what we do.

 
More evidence that the virus runs its course no matter what we do.


You are wrong.
You have to ignore so much evidence to the contrary to believe that.
Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Finland, Norway... etc... All countries where it did not need to run its course to control it.

Peru culturally is not equipped to manage a virus like this no matter what they do.
40% of the country does not have a refrigerator. 60% of the country doesn't have a bank account. They need to be out of the house all the time using mas transit to go anywhere and were constantly in large crowds at markets and banks to cash unemployment checks etc...
 
You are wrong.
You have to ignore so much evidence to the contrary to believe that.
Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Finland, Norway... etc... All countries where it did not need to run its course to control it.

Peru culturally is not equipped to manage a virus like this no matter what they do.
40% of the country does not have a refrigerator. 60% of the country doesn't have a bank account. They need to be out of the house all the time using mas transit to go anywhere and were constantly in large crowds at markets and banks to cash unemployment checks etc...

You are laugh out loud funny. Keep sticking to your faulty narrative without any evidence. Day by day we see more evidence that this is a virus we can't control but outbreaks will burn out if we give it time.
 
You are laugh out loud funny. Keep sticking to your faulty narrative without any evidence. Day by day we see more evidence that this is a virus we can't control but outbreaks will burn out if we give it time.

Why was the virus controlled in South Korea right away and not Peru?
 
Why was the virus controlled in South Korea right away and not Peru?

That's one tiny country, one that can only be accessed by boat or plane for the most part due to the border with its northern neighbor. The majority of other countries have seen sharp spikes followed by receding case counts.
 
That's one tiny country, one that can only be accessed by boat or plane for the most part due to the border with its northern neighbor. The majority of other countries have seen sharp spikes followed by receding case counts.

Finland. Norway.

Why did they fare so much better than Sweden?

You are just ignoring the obvious answer that we did/do have the ability to modify our behavior to control the virus.
 
The shu09 narrative for 5 months: a virus will run its course through the air no matter preventive measures individuals take, it is impossible to be inundated with covid test negative for a few days and then test positive
 
Found this interesting in that there is no rhyme or reason, particularly the graphs:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818/

There is plenty of rhyme and reason.

If we know the virus is in a certain area, are people there making efforts to minimize the spread through social distancing and wearing masks?

Yes?
The virus is spreading at a low rate.

No?
Is the state/country densely populated

Yes?
The virus is spreading rapidly.

No?
The virus is spreading at a low rate (though not as low as it would have been with masks)

Rules in place or not, apply that to any state/country and there are very few exceptions.
 
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