Election Prediction
- Thread starter Rockaway
- Start date
No you didn't, I posted this exact prediction 6 weeks ago. It will be close though in all battleground states and anything can happen.
North Carolina
NC's lieutenant governor and Republican nominee for governor was already under a lot of fire and losing to his opponent, but this is quite something. Can't imagine this will make it easier for Trump to win North Carolina.
setonhall.forums.rivals.com
I’m not going to wager a guess because it would be a complete guess. Six weeks ago I posted that Harris was going to win based on polls, feel and talking to some politicians privately. I thought it would take a surprise to turn it around. No surprise but her strategy is arguably worse than HRC’s in 2016. If she loses, she is the Joe Piscarcek of politics. Trump has the momentum and is winning the press cycle despite their attempts to get her elected.
Agree with Merge that gender will play a role, but the most recent attempts to shame black men (Obama’s), and play on male/female relationships (Roberts and Clooney) is pretty sad and reeks of desperation.
Living in a purple city in a purple county in a purple state…my wife and my vote will make about as big a difference as it ever will.
Agree with Merge that gender will play a role, but the most recent attempts to shame black men (Obama’s), and play on male/female relationships (Roberts and Clooney) is pretty sad and reeks of desperation.
Living in a purple city in a purple county in a purple state…my wife and my vote will make about as big a difference as it ever will.
I believe Harris will win. Trump peaked too early (1-2 weeks ago) and she is regaining momentum in the home stretch.
Ann Seltzers Iowa poll has Harris up in Iowa, 47-43
If you follow polls, you know Seltzer has been very good at this and it’s a surprising result. It would represent a very large shift towards Harris from 2020.
Not sure if that swing translates in other states, but it would not be a close election if it does.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”
www.desmoinesregister.com
If you follow polls, you know Seltzer has been very good at this and it’s a surprising result. It would represent a very large shift towards Harris from 2020.
Not sure if that swing translates in other states, but it would not be a close election if it does.
I agree. I think Harris ultimately takes it. As awful as she is as a candidate, I think the majority of people just want to move on from Trump even if they don't believe Harris stands for anything or is equipped to do the job. Every election since 2016 keeps getting stranger. Perhaps once we get past Trump things will normalize, but I don't see that happening unfortunately.
Looks like an outlier.Ann Seltzers Iowa poll has Harris up in Iowa, 47-43
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
If you follow polls, you know Seltzer has been very good at this and it’s a surprising result. It would represent a very large shift towards Harris from 2020.
Not sure if that swing translates in other states, but it would not be a close election if it does.
An even more recent poll from Emerson College Polling (also very highly thought of) has it vastly different. Trump 53-43.
November 2024 Iowa Poll: Trump 53%, Harris 43% - Emerson Polling
Trump leads among both men and women in the Hawkeye State A new Emerson College…Full Release & Results
emersoncollegepolling.com
It does at the moment. She was also outlier towards Trump in 2020. Emerson had it as +1 Trump. They were off by 7. Selzer was off by 1.
She could be wrong, and I wouldn’t bet money on Harris winning the state, but even if she’s off by her largest error ever, it would be a fairly large swing in the state and if that swing is real and happening in other states?
I disagree about the normalization at least on the Republican side . I think most republicans cannot wait to get past trump .
They will paint the next legit candidate though as another Trump. You already saw that with DeSantis. And it will go on and on.
well maybe if they all didn't shove their heads up his ass they wouldnt. even haley bent the knee.
a big question for the next election is running the republican party or the maga party.
I don't think so, his unfavorables have been bad from the get-go and he's still underwater by six and-a-half points there.
This is a big reason why he was a bad pick. GOP governors like Chris Sununu (NH) and Glenn Younkin (VA) are popular in their home states. They are also governors of states that could have been flipped to red (not an easy task but also not impossible - these states both voted for George W. Bush). They were right there and Trump decided to go with a freshman senator from state he was never going to lose, who not that long ago, said he was worried Trump could be America's Hitler.
No one cares about the last sentence. Harris called Biden a racist on a debate stage and was his running mate not long after.
I am gonna throw out 2028 fantasy list for GOP
DeSantis
Haley
Gabbard
Huckabee Sanders
Mullin
Vance
Lee
Thune
DeSantis
Haley
Gabbard
Huckabee Sanders
Mullin
Vance
Lee
Thune
FWIW My Prediction:
Trump 297- Harris 241
Popular Vote- Harris 1.0%
Swings States (In order of certainty)
Trump: NC,GA,PA (Tipping Point),AZ,NV,WI
Harris- MI
Notable Swings:
NJ- Harris +10 (5.94% Swings to Trump)
NY-Harris +16% (7.0% Swing to Trump)
VA- Harris +5.0% (5.0 Swing to Trump)
Lots of information to support between a 3-4% swing nationally from 2020, in that environment I do not see how Harris can hold onto the the tightly contested swing states. It is possible that Trump's gains are disproportionally inefficiently distributed and like 2022 they will be in big blue states (NJ, NY, CA) which don't matter, and she can somehow hold on to the mid-west.
PA is the key state, and I don't see how if NY/NJ are moving that PA resists the trend and she is able to onto the 1.0% win Biden had in 2020. Demographics are similar in several key areas, there would have to be unique trends in PA for this to happened . For Harris to win PA, in my mind this will have to be true:
1) GOP erosion in the suburbs of Philly and Pittsburgh did not peak in 2020, and there are Trump 2020 voters who are now voting for Harris.
2) She will hold onto Biden's small but decisive real gains in the NE PA, and other areas among WWC voters from 2020. There will be no erosion against someone who was born in PA, and has been a figure in the Delaware Valley for 50 years.
3)Rural/WWC Trump friendly voters are going to stay home and not vote.
4) Turnout in Philly/Pittsburgh proper will exceed 2020 levels and the Trump shift among Black Men and Latinos is a mirage.
Luckily I do think we will know very quickly what scenario plays out; I predict will be know the winner by midnight.
Trump 297- Harris 241
Popular Vote- Harris 1.0%
Swings States (In order of certainty)
Trump: NC,GA,PA (Tipping Point),AZ,NV,WI
Harris- MI
Notable Swings:
NJ- Harris +10 (5.94% Swings to Trump)
NY-Harris +16% (7.0% Swing to Trump)
VA- Harris +5.0% (5.0 Swing to Trump)
Lots of information to support between a 3-4% swing nationally from 2020, in that environment I do not see how Harris can hold onto the the tightly contested swing states. It is possible that Trump's gains are disproportionally inefficiently distributed and like 2022 they will be in big blue states (NJ, NY, CA) which don't matter, and she can somehow hold on to the mid-west.
PA is the key state, and I don't see how if NY/NJ are moving that PA resists the trend and she is able to onto the 1.0% win Biden had in 2020. Demographics are similar in several key areas, there would have to be unique trends in PA for this to happened . For Harris to win PA, in my mind this will have to be true:
1) GOP erosion in the suburbs of Philly and Pittsburgh did not peak in 2020, and there are Trump 2020 voters who are now voting for Harris.
2) She will hold onto Biden's small but decisive real gains in the NE PA, and other areas among WWC voters from 2020. There will be no erosion against someone who was born in PA, and has been a figure in the Delaware Valley for 50 years.
3)Rural/WWC Trump friendly voters are going to stay home and not vote.
4) Turnout in Philly/Pittsburgh proper will exceed 2020 levels and the Trump shift among Black Men and Latinos is a mirage.
Luckily I do think we will know very quickly what scenario plays out; I predict will be know the winner by midnight.
From the leading pollster of 2020:Ann Seltzers Iowa poll has Harris up in Iowa, 47-43
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
If you follow polls, you know Seltzer has been very good at this and it’s a surprising result. It would represent a very large shift towards Harris from 2020.
Not sure if that swing translates in other states, but it would not be a close election if it does.
Silk trust me I hope this isn't the case. The polarization is horrible. It has gotten worse every cycle it seems in my lifetime, with the last 8 years being in a category of its own. The Dems have had success with the "Trump is bad" campaign message for a few cycles now, and associating anyone they can to Trump. And if doing that means you get power, I don't see it changing as a political tactic.
People generally make "politics" way to much of someone's identity now. I do my best to avoid that - in fact I was talking about this with my kids last night. They were asking me if I know who some of my friends and acquaintances in our town are voting for, and I said I do not, nor do I care. I told them I care that they are good people by virtue of their actions - to me, my family, you kids, in our community and the like. If they are, I like them. If they aren't, I probably don't. Who they vote for -- could care less. But I think I'm in the minority these days when it comes to that viewpoint.
Harris 314 - Trump 224. You can thank the Dobbs decision and Tony Hinchcliffe
I think a lot of women will secretly be voting for Trump while their husbands vote for Harris. Lol less of a margin than people believe. I’m of the opinion that lots of Trump voters do so silently. They have seen the anger and hatred and prefer to make up their own mind quietly. Also polls almost always are skewed toward Dems. Maybe this year polls are correct and race is extremely close, but thinking Trump will win with over 300 plus electoral votes. Popular vote also close but goes to Harris. Either way life goes on and I will do my best to support my country and the will of the people. I expect the next 4 years to be turbulent times no matter who gets elected.
Why people talk politics with friends and family I will never understand. I use to post a sign on my front door for holidays PLEASE No Politics No Religion, No Cell phones.
We had a guy on our bowling team who left the team and ended a friendship of 40 years over political views. I refuse to lose family and friends because we disagree politically.
I don’t have any issue with talking politics with friends or family and quite frankly, I like the diversity of opinion. It’s when people start yelling and becoming intolerant of different points of view that I ask that we change the subject.
Was that our polling place at 7 AM this morning and it took us 45 minutes to cast our votes. Really heavy turnout considering PA has had a large mail in vote. Don’t mind the lines at all. A good civics reminder as to how our system works. It was also nice to see a lot of congeniality and smiles. They even had a DJ outside. Our district skews heavily Hispanic >50%.
Dobbs effect is definitely a factor, and my prediction is pretty close to yours. I will go with Harris 308 to Trump 230. In this scenario Trump wins back Arizona but loses North Carolina. All other states vote the the same as 2020.
Would there be any states carried at presidential level where a senate candidate doesn't follow?
Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all possibilities. The order I placed them in are roughly what I think is most to least likely to happen.
Tester in Montana looked like he had no shot a month ago but now he might have a chance. Osborn the independent in Nebraska might have a slim chance against incumbent Republican Deb Fischer. R incumbents Scott in FL and Cruz in TX might have close elections but should win. Ditto for Democrat Slotkin in MI, who is running for an open seat against Mike Rogers.
