Election Prediction
- Thread starter Rockaway
- Start date
Well, I was dead wrong.
The most fascinating aspect of this is going to be how the Democrats react. Not in accepting the election results, but in how they act going forward.
They threw everything at this guy. Called him every name. And yet somehow he pulls off the most miraculous comeback in political history, after pulling off the most stunning win in political history 8 years ago.
And not in a nail biter. An absolute, freaking landslide. Electorally. And the popular vote.
If you are a professional Democrat or operative, how do you square away what happened? Armed with a billion dollars and every mainstream media outlet not named Fox acting as surrogates for your candidate against what seemed like the most vulnerable opposition candidate in history.
If it were me, I would take a long, hard look at what happened here. And I certainly wouldn't double-down on all the stuff that last night showed doesn't work in the most spectacular fashion in history.
Not to mention turning NJ and Illinois into possible swing states. Early in the night when I saw Virginia numbers I knew this was going to be a long night for the Democrats. Seeing a less than 4 percentage point spread in NJ is amazing. Democrats definitely underestimated the Hispanic voters, they want the American dream and are willing to work for it.
GOP in NJ has to be excited after the last few cycles. Nearly unseated Murphy in 2021, now Trump only loses the state by 5% or less (I believe it could get tighter based on where that final 10% of the vote will come from). Still a tough hill to climb, but a once deep blue state might only be blue right now. Trending in a different direction. Can they win the governor's race next year?
4 points in Illinois. Four.
Won Miami-Dade, though Desantis paved the way for that.
Won freaking Nassau County, I believe.
Got something like 25% of the vote in the Bronx.
Won downstate Rockland County, NY, I believe.
Just wild stuff and it doesn’t seem anyone saw it coming.
I think he actually saw it coming. Yes, him saying he could win NY and NJ was entirely his ego and bravado, but he was on to something deeper. Change is happening. There's a reason why he did rallies in Wildwood, the Bronx, Nassau, and MSG.
It wasn’t that long ago, that Florida and Texas or trending purple. The thought that people from New York and California moving to those two states and that would eventually turn them blue. Trump won those two states by combine 3 million votes - more than Harris won NY and CA by - with Hispanics making a big difference.
