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IN / DAYTON / OUT?

Another reason I feel good at the moment. Definitely respect Brad and I think most here do. We don’t fall on his list in this tweet. I think that matters a lot.


Brad has been pretty consistent that he would call Seton Hall a lock, but for the possibility of the rest of the bubble racking up wins in the tournament.

Makes logical sense. What differentiates Seton Hall is that it beat UConn and Marquette. So if Miss St beats Tennessee, A&M beats Kentucky, Providence beats Marquette, Ohio St beats Illinois, Mich St beats Purdue, Pitt beats NC, and obviously if St. John's beats UConn then the strong points of Seton Hall's resume look less and less special.

He's also now insisting that NET has nothing to do with selection, but it does with seeding. I also don't think it has anything to do with seeding on the team level. NET only matters if a conference pretty much conspires to all schedule weak and beat up on teams (this is what Clemson's coach rightly accused the Big 12 of).



As of right now it's bizarre how some people have St. John's seeded over Providence, which has now beaten Creighton twice (once neutral) and Marquette while St. John's has only beaten Creighton once at home. Outside of Creighton, St. John's swept NIT-bound Villanova, beat NIT-bound Utah on a neutral court, split with Providence, and went 1-2 (1-1 at home) to Seton Hall.
 
Brad has been pretty consistent that he would call Seton Hall a lock, but for the possibility of the rest of the bubble racking up wins in the tournament.

Makes logical sense. What differentiates Seton Hall is that it beat UConn and Marquette. So if Miss St beats Tennessee, A&M beats Kentucky, Providence beats Marquette, Ohio St beats Illinois, Mich St beats Purdue, Pitt beats NC, and obviously if St. John's beats UConn then the strong points of Seton Hall's resume look less and less special.

He's also now insisting that NET has nothing to do with selection, but it does with seeding. I also don't think it has anything to do with seeding on the team level. NET only matters if a conference pretty much conspires to all schedule weak and beat up on teams (this is what Clemson's coach rightly accused the Big 12 of).



As of right now it's bizarre how some people have St. John's seeded over Providence, which has now beaten Creighton twice (once neutral) and Marquette while St. John's has only beaten Creighton once at home. Outside of Creighton, St. John's swept NIT-bound Villanova, beat NIT-bound Utah on a neutral court, split with Providence, and went 1-2 (1-1 at home) to Seton Hall.
St johns also lost in poor fashion to Michigan
 
Even though they lost to the Johnnies the Hall belongs in the dance. I don't see them going very far if at all even winning a game but that was said of Sha and St Peters a few years back you you never know. Maybe Sha can work his magic again? I think all of the experts here know we have to see how other teams do and who the competition is for the few spots that remain but I like our chances. How can a team that finished 4th with 2 fewer losses than the next team in the BE not get in ? It would be mind boggling.
 
Morning Update:

Michigan St didn’t beat Purdue but I think they had good enough of a showing to solidify their spot in the dance with their strong metrics. And those superior metric combined with a couple high quality wins of their own should keep them above Seton Hall in the pecking order. Could they get jumped and still be a “Last Four In”…sure. But it won’t be because we pushed them down a peg.

And barring a massive 22 point comeback by Tennessee in the last 10 minutes, it’s safe to move Mississippi St to lock position and most likely out of Dayton themselves. Probably jump them ahead of Oklahoma and MSU at this point.

So that now leaves now 6 spots for 11 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
New Mexico
Colorado
Providence
Virginia
Pitt
Texas A&M
Ohio St
South Florida
Indiana St

And assuming it doesn’t shrink further with bid stealers.
 
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the thing if the hall misses out is what message does it send as to the value of conference play? A 13-7 big east with 20 regular season wins not getting in would be quite the message by the committee. It is also tough to know how much stock the committee puts into conference tournaments since so much of it is draw/matchup based. Virginia is the perfect example they are in the semis of the ACC but instead of having to go through Clemson and Duke to reach the final they end up playing BC and NC State.
it will tell you to schedule strong ooc and actually get a quality non conference....0-3 vs usc, ru, iowa is not good
 
Morning Update:

Michigan St didn’t beat Purdue but I think they had good enough of a showing to solidify their spot in the dance with their strong metrics. And those superior metric combined with a couple high quality wins of their own should keep them above Seton Hall in the pecking order. Could they get jumped and still be a “Last Four In”…sure. But it won’t be because we pushed them down a peg.

And barring a massive 22 point comeback by Tennessee in the last 10 minutes, it’s safe to move Mississippi St to lock position and most likely out of Dayton themselves. Probably jump them ahead of Oklahoma and MSU at this point.

So that now leaves now 6 spots for 11 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
New Mexico
Colorado
Providence
Virginia
Pitt
Texas A&M
Ohio St
South Florida
Illinois St

And assuming it doesn’t shrink further with bid stealers.
its indiana state not Illinois State :)
 
Morning Update:

Michigan St didn’t beat Purdue but I think they had good enough of a showing to solidify their spot in the dance with their strong metrics. And those superior metric combined with a couple high quality wins of their own should keep them above Seton Hall in the pecking order. Could they get jumped and still be a “Last Four In”…sure. But it won’t be because we pushed them down a peg.

And barring a massive 22 point comeback by Tennessee in the last 10 minutes, it’s safe to move Mississippi St to lock position and most likely out of Dayton themselves. Probably jump them ahead of Oklahoma and MSU at this point.

So that now leaves now 6 spots for 11 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
New Mexico
Colorado
Providence
Virginia
Pitt
Texas A&M
Ohio St
South Florida
Illinois St

And assuming it doesn’t shrink further with bid stealers.
If PC wins tonight they jump us.

I also have a bad feeling SJU knocks off Uconn. It’s not looking great for us
 
Morning Update:

Michigan St didn’t beat Purdue but I think they had good enough of a showing to solidify their spot in the dance with their strong metrics. And those superior metric combined with a couple high quality wins of their own should keep them above Seton Hall in the pecking order. Could they get jumped and still be a “Last Four In”…sure. But it won’t be because we pushed them down a peg.

And barring a massive 22 point comeback by Tennessee in the last 10 minutes, it’s safe to move Mississippi St to lock position and most likely out of Dayton themselves. Probably jump them ahead of Oklahoma and MSU at this point.

So that now leaves now 6 spots for 11 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
New Mexico
Colorado
Providence
Virginia
Pitt
Texas A&M
Ohio St
South Florida
Indiana St

And assuming it doesn’t shrink further with bid stealers.
South Florida not getting in and likewise for Indiana State. It’s a nice story but too much bubble movement for IS.
 
If PC wins tonight they jump us.

I also have a bad feeling SJU knocks off Uconn. It’s not looking great for us
So
South Florida not getting in and likewise for Indiana State. It’s a nice story but too much bubble movement for IS.
I agree. But for now since they are the 1 seed in AAC they are in all bracketology as the Automatic Qualifier and FAU is an at large.

If FAU wins then it will open another spot.

Honestly USF is probably their chief competition to knock them off.

I also believe that if FAU were to lose today in the quarters they could take a significant tumble into bubble territory.
 
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the thing if the hall misses out is what message does it send as to the value of conference play? A 13-7 big east with 20 regular season wins not getting in would be quite the message by the committee. It is also tough to know how much stock the committee puts into conference tournaments since so much of it is draw/matchup based. Virginia is the perfect example they are in the semis of the ACC but instead of having to go through Clemson and Duke to reach the final they end up playing BC and NC State.
All you have to do is look at last year's Providence team. They were 21-11 (13-7) with a BET quarterfinal loss on Selection Sunday and drew an 11 seed. Their NET ranking was 56 and their quad splits were 4-8/3-2/3-1/11-0.

They beat Marquette, Creighton and UConn at home but its best non-conference win was over Rider (NET 216).
As of right now it's bizarre how some people have St. John's seeded over Providence, which has now beaten Creighton twice (once neutral) and Marquette while St. John's has only beaten Creighton once at home. Outside of Creighton, St. John's swept NIT-bound Villanova, beat NIT-bound Utah on a neutral court, split with Providence, and went 1-2 (1-1 at home) to Seton Hall.
PC's resume this year isn't very dissimilar to last year in its framework.

Right now they are 21-12 (10-10) with two BET wins. Their NET today is 57 and their quad splits are 6-8/3-4/1-0/11-0.

They have the two wins over Creighton (one neutral) and Marquette plus a win over Wisconsin (NET 21). It's the soft bottom of the OOC that hurts. Seven of the 11 Q4 wins are OOC (thanks Georgetown and DePaul).

St. John's is 3-9/7-2/3-1/7-0 in quad splits. PC has the advantage on Q1 but only four of SJU's seven Q4 wins are OOC.

The Selection Committee consistently points to SOS as something they look at. Having a third of your wins be Q4 because you scheduled a soft OOC doesn't score any points at this time of year.
 
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Just feel committee will have easier time leaving Hall out. Can point to Net and avg margin of losses. They know we're just small school in NJ without huge following.....people will just go about day if left out.
 
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13- and driggin 7 just cuz you started bad doesnt mean your finish doesnt matter
 
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BAC does a great job with bracket research , so you can't criticize unless you have tried putting in all that work yourself. But having said that, he hates the BE and SHU and in the past it has shown up in his predictions.
 
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Just feel committee will have easier time leaving Hall out. Can point to Net and avg margin of losses. They know we're just small school in NJ without huge following.....people will just go about day if left out.
The “following” part not really accurate. We travel very well historically.

Not sure that will work against us…but I guess that depends who we’re being compared to
 
BAC does a great job with bracket research , so you can't criticize unless you have tried putting in all that work yourself. But having said that, he hates the BE and SHU and in the past it has shown up in his predictions.
shu is vulnerable because their is a cool factor with st johns, they pass the eye test and this could influence the committee

also shu is vulnerable because you are done after one game while Pitt, Colorado, Providence, New Mexico, Ohio State, Texas A&M scored good wins yesterday and still playing
 
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If PC pulls out a win tonight they certainly move ahead of SHU, if they aren’t already. Getting very dicey here for the pirates.
 
shu is vulnerable because their is a cool factor with st johns, they pass the eye test and this could influence the committee

also shu is vulnerable because you are done after one game while Pitt, Colorado, Providence, New Mexico, Ohio State, Texas A&M scored good wins yesterday and still playing
Still playing doesn’t matter if they don’t win.

But 100% agree that SJU really passed the eye test and even though SHU should be ever so slightly ahead of them….I firmly believe the eye test, Pitino factor, and recency bias is going to slot Seton Hall behind the Johnnies.
 
Still playing doesn’t matter if they don’t win.

But 100% agree that SJU really passed the eye test and even though SHU should be ever so slightly ahead of them….I firmly believe the eye test, Pitino factor, and recency bias is going to slot Seton Hall behind the Johnnies.
Does the eye test involve us embarrassing them twice and finishing 2 games ahead of them?
 
Does the eye test involve us embarrassing them twice and finishing 2 games ahead of them?
Not sure if I would call the second one us embarrassing them. Great rally down 19.

But when it comes to recency bias the committee is going to be impressed by their recent stretch and have already said they will use the Pitino didn’t coach factor in the first loss to us. 🤷‍♂️
 
shu is vulnerable because their is a cool factor with st johns, they pass the eye test and this could influence the committee

also shu is vulnerable because you are done after one game while Pitt, Colorado, Providence, New Mexico, Ohio State, Texas A&M scored good wins yesterday and still playing
the cool factor? their record stinks. SHU is undeniably better in every way including the head to head. SJU has done nothing. if they get in because "theyre cool" then the selection committee should all be hanged
 
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Still playing doesn’t matter if they don’t win.

But 100% agree that SJU really passed the eye test and even though SHU should be ever so slightly ahead of them….I firmly believe the eye test, Pitino factor, and recency bias is going to slot Seton Hall behind the Johnnies.
SJU has literally just a win vs Creighton thats it. theyre not slightly behind shu, theyre strongly behind most bubble teams. this is becoming crazy pills
 
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Not sure if I would call the second one us embarrassing them. Great rally down 19.

But when it comes to recency bias the committee is going to be impressed by their recent stretch and have already said they will use the Pitino didn’t coach factor in the first loss to us. 🤷‍♂️
their recent stretch also involves a loss to SHU
 
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