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Having the Butler AD on the committee should help, and the Mountain West has no representation.

The Mountain West has 4 teams of NET 159 or worse and the Big East Has 2 teams with a NET worse than 68. Admittedly, DePaul is the worst in both league. The difference is that the top teams in the Mountain West get 8 automatic wins from the bottom 4 teams in their conference, the top Big East teams only get 4 automatic wins from the bottom 2 teams in our conference.

SHU is 9-7 in conference against NET 67 or better opponents.

New Mexico is 4-6 in conference against NET 77 or better opponents (1 Quad 3 and 1 Quad 4 loss)
SDSU is 3-7 ... (0 Quad 3 or 4 losses)
Boise State is 6-5 ... (1 Quad 3 loss)
Nevada is 6-5 ...(1 Quad 3 loss)
Colorado State is 3-8 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)
Utah State is 7-4 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)

Additionally, SHU has 2 NET 11 or better wins in conference.

I'm not sure if the committee looks this closely at these wins/losses, but the Mountain West shouldn't have 5 or 6 teams in the tourney, 4 max.
 
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walshtrips said:
Having the Butler AD on the committee should help, and the Mountain West has no representation.

The Mountain West has 4 teams of NET 159 or worse and the Big East Has 2 teams with a NET worse than 68. Admittedly, DePaul is the worst in both league. The difference is that the top teams in the Mountain West get 8 automatic wins from the bottom 4 teams in their conference, the top Big East teams only get 4 automatic wins from the bottom 2 teams in our conference.

SHU is 9-7 in conference against NET 67 or better opponents.

New Mexico is 4-6 in conference against NET 77 or better opponents (1 Quad 3 and 1 Quad 4 loss)
SDSU is 3-7 ... (0 Quad 3 or 4 losses)
Boise State is 6-5 ... (1 Quad 3 loss)
Nevada is 6-5 ...(1 Quad 3 loss)
Colorado State is 3-8 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)
Utah State is 7-4 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)

Additionally, SHU has 2 NET 11 or better wins in conference.

I'm not sure if the committee looks this closely at these wins/losses, but the Mountain West shouldn't have 5 or 6 teams in the tourney, 4 max.
Click to expand...
We've gone from metrics are crap to trying to use metrics to tell a story. What a wonderful world we live in.

For starters having the Butler AD shouldn't be any help. These people are all supposed to be neutral and don't politic for their respective schools or conferences. As I understand it, committee members recuse themselves when schools from their conferences are discussed. If I am wrong on that, someone who knows better can correct me.

Next, and this has been stated many times here, conference play doesn't matter to the extent that people want to believe. Each team's full body of work is considered.

That body of work includes their conference games. So, yes, from that perspective the committee would take into account what a team does in conference. But what they are really doing is looking at all 30-something games a team plays. Where the wins and losses come from doesn't matter -- each game is valued the same.
 
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Sorry was out for the day coaching little league.

Up to the minute action:

New Mexico wins the Mountain west. Take them out of the conversation. They get the auto bid.

FAU makes matters worse. They lose to Temple in AAC semis. Some people think this should drop them out of the tournament. I don’t think those are the optics here, even though a case can be made. AAC gets two bids now.

UNC down 10 under 4 to play vs NC state. Not good news.

Oregon up at the half by 3 over Colorado.

Texas A&M did have a good showing vs Florida but did not secure the win.

So that now leaves 3 spots for 5 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

But this could shrink with bid stealers:
Bid Stealer Alert - PAC12 (Oregon)
Bid Stealer Alert - ACC (NC State)
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Sorry was out for the day coaching little league.

Up to the minute action:

New Mexico wins the Mountain west. Take them out of the conversation. They get the auto bid.

FAU makes matters worse. They lose to Temple in AAC semis. Some people think this should drop them out of the tournament. I don’t think those are the optics here, even though a case can be made. AAC gets two bids now.

UNC down 10 under 4 to play vs NC state. Not good news.

Oregon up at the half by 3 over Colorado.

Texas A&M did have a good showing vs Florida but did not secure the win.

So that now leaves 3 spots for 5 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

But this could shrink with bid stealers:
Bid Stealer Alert - PAC12 (Oregon)
Bid Stealer Alert - ACC (NC State)
Click to expand...
Well another one down. NC Goes down.

Oregon also winning.

I would have to say it would take a minor miracle for us to get a bid now. In fact…I’m not sure I can even make up a scenario where that happens
 
Up to the minute action:

UNC does the bubble zero favors. NC state pulls off the upset and is dancing. ACC gets 4 in the dance.

Oregon up 1 - 9:23 to play.

So that now leaves 2 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

But this could shrink with bid stealers:
Bid Stealer Alert - PAC12 (Oregon)
 
Really, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. On Thursday at 2:30 we were a solid 10 seed. Since that time, we lose in ugly fashion, FAU loses to Temple Assuring two bids for the AAC. New Mexico, out of the field wins the MVC. But then NC state not even near a bid wins 5 games. Thanks UVA and UNC. Lastly Oregon also out of the field is ahead of Colorado.
 
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walshtrips said:
Having the Butler AD on the committee should help, and the Mountain West has no representation.

The Mountain West has 4 teams of NET 159 or worse and the Big East Has 2 teams with a NET worse than 68. Admittedly, DePaul is the worst in both league. The difference is that the top teams in the Mountain West get 8 automatic wins from the bottom 4 teams in their conference, the top Big East teams only get 4 automatic wins from the bottom 2 teams in our conference.

SHU is 9-7 in conference against NET 67 or better opponents.

New Mexico is 4-6 in conference against NET 77 or better opponents (1 Quad 3 and 1 Quad 4 loss)
SDSU is 3-7 ... (0 Quad 3 or 4 losses)
Boise State is 6-5 ... (1 Quad 3 loss)
Nevada is 6-5 ...(1 Quad 3 loss)
Colorado State is 3-8 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)
Utah State is 7-4 ...(1 Quad 1 loss)

Additionally, SHU has 2 NET 11 or better wins in conference.

I'm not sure if the committee looks this closely at these wins/losses, but the Mountain West shouldn't have 5 or 6 teams in the tourney, 4 max.
Click to expand...
Well. They are going to get 6 teams. All safely in as single digit seeds.
 
radecicco said:
Really, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. On Thursday at 2:30 we were a solid 10 seed. Since that time, we lose in ugly fashion, FAU loses to Temple Assuring two bids for the AAC. New Mexico, out of the field wins the MVC. But then NC state not even near a bid wins 5 games. Thanks UVA and UNC. Lastly Oregon also out of the field is ahead of Colorado.
Click to expand...
This is why i pay no mind to all those posters saying we were safe and a lock and those being critical of the people who correctly pointed out we needed the SJU game. It’s March Madness. Anything can happen and, unfortunately, it did.
 
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LeftCoastPirates said:
Up to the minute action:

UNC does the bubble zero favors. NC state pulls off the upset and is dancing. ACC gets 4 in the dance.

Oregon up 1 - 9:23 to play.

So that now leaves 2 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

But this could shrink with bid stealers:
Bid Stealer Alert - PAC12 (Oregon)
Click to expand...
I believe Texas A&M in.
If Colorado wins it will be SHU to join them in your Final Math.
 
radecicco said:
Really, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. On Thursday at 2:30 we were a solid 10 seed. Since that time, we lose in ugly fashion, FAU loses to Temple Assuring two bids for the AAC. New Mexico, out of the field wins the MVC. But then NC state not even near a bid wins 5 games. Thanks UVA and UNC. Lastly Oregon also out of the field is ahead of Colorado.
Click to expand...
All of it out of our control. A win on Thursday would have gone a long way. As it's turned out even that might not have been enough. It's been a wild few days.

Have to hope the projections are wrong and the committee has us in but Dayton, FAU, UNC and Arizona taking at-larges while allowing off-the-bubble auto qualifiers greatly hurts the cause.
 
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TheHall87 said:
All of it out of our control. A win on Thursday would have gone a long way. As it's turned out even that might not have been enough. It's been a wild few days.

Have to hope the projections are wrong and the committee has us in but Dayton, FAU, UNC and Arizona taking at-larges while allowing off-the-bubble auto qualifiers greatly hurts the cause.
Click to expand...
I think ST John’s may now also be out.
 
Up to the minute action:

YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS S**T UP AT THIS POINT!!!

Oregon beats Colorado creating a 4th bid stealer.

So that now leaves 1 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Colorado are most likely your other Dayton participants.

Sorry Hall fans I don’t like those odds. You can definitely make a case for the Pirates over any of those teams. Just not the position we expected to be in as the ball tipped Wednesday afternoon at the Garden.
 
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LeftCoastPirates said:
Up to the minute action:

YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS S**T UP AT THIS POINT!!!

Oregon beats Colorado creating a 4th bid stealer.

So that now leaves 1 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Colorado are most likely your other Dayton participants.

Sorry Hall fans I don’t like those odds. You can definitely make a case for the Pirates over any of those teams. Just not the position we expected to be in as the ball tipped Wednesday afternoon at the Garden.
Click to expand...

What's your case for Michigan St and Oklahoma over SHU?
 
Michigan St: 19-14, 3-9 Q1 (25%), 5-10 road/neutral

Oklahoma: 20-12, 4-12 Q1 (25%), 6-8 road/neutral

The Hall: 20-12, 5-8 Q1 (38%), 6-9 road/neutral
 
sussexcopirate said:
What's your case for Michigan St and Oklahoma over SHU?
Click to expand...
Just because they were well positioned over us in most projections prior to this.

Committee says conference tournaments shouldn’t move the need too much.

And I am not a fan of the NET beyond a sorting tool. But 25 NET for MSU is 40 spots ahead of us.

But we could easily add those two to the mix and say 8 teams for 3 spots.
 
Conf with defending national champ and number 1 overall gonna get 3 teams? Makes no sense, but an Oklahoma and miss st with 8-10 record in conf and Mich st losing 5 of last 7 are locks. Throw in Virginia and FAU with 2-3 Q4 losses is criminal
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Just because they were well positioned over us in most projections prior to this.

Committee says conference tournaments shouldn’t move the need too much.

And I am not a fan of the NET beyond a sorting tool. But 25 NET for MSU is 40 spots ahead of us.

But we could easily add those two to the mix and say 8 teams for 3 spots.
Click to expand...

I just don't understand why they were ahead of us in the projections. Their Q1 numbers are putrid. Heck, Michigan State is 9-14 in Q1 and Q2
 
TheHall87 said:
All of it out of our control. A win on Thursday would have gone a long way. As it's turned out even that might not have been enough. It's been a wild few days.

Have to hope the projections are wrong and the committee has us in but Dayton, FAU, UNC and Arizona taking at-larges while allowing off-the-bubble auto qualifiers greatly hurts the cause.
Click to expand...

If the projections of us in the 10 seed prior to the start of these bid stealers coming in holds up, then there is a chance we can still get in!
 
I am completely miserable right now. Really wanted to make the tournament but too many bad games kept us as a bubble team. Our history in the NIT just makes me want nothing to do with it and start looking forward to next year. What would we gain, not like we play any young guys other then Coleman for 5-10 mins a game
 
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Hallball85 said:
I am completely miserable right now. Really wanted to make the tournament but too many bad games kept us as a bubble team. Our history in the NIT just makes me want nothing to do with it and start looking forward to next year. What would we gain, not like we play any young guys other then Coleman for 5-10 mins a game
Click to expand...

NIT is pointless if we're losing our starting 5. Emotions are not in a good place right now.
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Just because they were well positioned over us in most projections prior to this.

Committee says conference tournaments shouldn’t move the need too much.

And I am not a fan of the NET beyond a sorting tool. But 25 NET for MSU is 40 spots ahead of us.

But we could easily add those two to the mix and say 8 teams for 3 spots.
Click to expand...
It's not that the results of conference tourneys matter much in the overall evaluation -- they don't.

But they do matter in that they shrink the number of at large bids available -- sometimes (like this year) dramatically).
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Up to the minute action:

YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS S**T UP AT THIS POINT!!!

Oregon beats Colorado creating a 4th bid stealer.

So that now leaves 1 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Colorado are most likely your other Dayton participants.

Sorry Hall fans I don’t like those odds. You can definitely make a case for the Pirates over any of those teams. Just not the position we expected to be in as the ball tipped Wednesday afternoon at the Garden.
Click to expand...
LeftCoastPirates said:
Up to the minute action:

YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS S**T UP AT THIS POINT!!!

Oregon beats Colorado creating a 4th bid stealer.

So that now leaves 1 spots for 6 teams.

Seton Hall
SJU
Virginia
Texas A&M
Indiana St
Providence

Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Colorado are most likely your other Dayton participants.

Sorry Hall fans I don’t like those odds. You can definitely make a case for the Pirates over any of those teams. Just not the position we expected to be in as the ball tipped Wednesday afternoon at the Garden.
Click to expand...
Watchel just texted the same 3 you have plus Mississippi st in the first 4. He has Texas am in and the rest out on your list.
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Just because they were well positioned over us in most projections prior to this.

Committee says conference tournaments shouldn’t move the need too much.

And I am not a fan of the NET beyond a sorting tool. But 25 NET for MSU is 40 spots ahead of us.

But we could easily add those two to the mix and say 8 teams for 3 spots.
Click to expand...



Wachtel coming to my side.
 
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I’d love Wachtel to be right, as it would flip his last team in from MSU to SHU.

Call me a cynic, but I just can’t see the P5 influence on the committee doing that to their B10 brethren (and Izzo).

And as Wachtel acknowledges in a separate tweet, the problem is that the committee probably already has MSU locked into the field.
 
Last edited:
I hope we reject an NIT bid. It does nothing for a senior led team and would only lead to a poor showing. Damn- Can't believe we are going to actually be left out.
 
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SHUSource said:
To be fair, his "bacatology" is always very thorough and accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if he tracks better than some of the clowns we post about here, like Palm and Lunardi.
Click to expand...
Well, apparently, @bac2therac and his Bacatology landed third at BracketMatrix.com, which really is pretty darn impressive. I said it was good!

I also imagined he tracked better than Palm or Lunardi, which was correct: Jerry Palm was 213 out 226, while Lunardi was 168.

Just credit where it is due.
 
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