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IN / DAYTON / OUT?

LeftCoastPirates

LeftCoastPirates

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Feb 6, 2019
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So let’s track this to the best of our ability and try to take away some of the anxiety if possible.

10 Spots Available for 20 teams / bid stealers heading into today.

LAST 4 BYES
Oklahoma - lost (3/13) to TCU - should be IN
Michigan St - beat Minnesota / up next Purdue - should be IN

After that it’s kind of wide open
Mississippi St - beat LSU /
Seton Hall - lost to SJU
SJU - beat SHU / UConn up next
Colorado - vs Utah
Virginia vs BC
Providence - beat CU / Nova or MU up next
New Mexico vs Boise St
Indiana St - lost in MVC Finals
South Florida - Needs win AAC tournament
Texas A&M - Beat Ole Miss / Kentucky up next
Villanova - vs Marquette
Pittsburgh - beat Wake / UNC up next
Wake Forrest - lost to Pitt - should be out
Kansas st - lost to Iowa St - should be out
Iowa - lost to Ohio St - should be out
Ohio St - beat Iowa - Illinois up next
Cincinnati - beat Kansas / Baylor up next

Bid Stealers
Dayton needs to win the A10
Arizona or Wash St need to win the PAC12
UNC or Clemson need to win the ACC

So at the moment 10 spots for 17 teams.

Really only two spots left based on most bracketologists to avoid Dayton.

So have some fun, stop complaining about the NET, and kick back and watch some CBB besides Seton Hall and the Big East.
 
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I say we will be in as a 11 seed probably in Dayton. Would have signed for that after Rutger's game. Very disappointed with our game today. So, we take a shot in a 50/50 game against a team we should match up against fairly well. Could winning an 11 vs 11 game send us back to Brooklyn??
 
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Dayton loses in A10 quarterfinals, so A10 now gets a 2nd team, reducing the bubble by one.
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
So let’s track this to the best of our ability and try to take away some of the anxiety if possible.

10 Spots Available for 20 teams / bid stealers heading into today.

LAST 4 BYES
Oklahoma - lost (3/13) to TCU - should be IN
Michigan St - beat Minnesota / up next Purdue - should be IN

After that it’s kind of wide open
Mississippi St - beat LSU /
Seton Hall - lost to SJU
SJU - beat SHU / UConn up next
Colorado - vs Utah
Virginia vs BC
Providence - beat CU / Nova or MU up next
New Mexico vs Boise St
Indiana St - lost in MVC Finals
South Florida - Needs win AAC tournament
Texas A&M - Beat Ole Miss / Kentucky up next
Villanova - vs Marquette
Pittsburgh - beat Wake / UNC up next
Wake Forrest - lost to Pitt - should be out
Kansas st - lost to Iowa St - should be out
Iowa - lost to Ohio St - should be out
Ohio St - beat Iowa - Illinois up next
Cincinnati - beat Kansas / Baylor up next

Bid Stealers
Dayton needs to win the A10
Arizona or Wash St need to win the PAC12
UNC or Clemson need to win the ACC

So at the moment 10 spots for 17 teams.

Really only two spots left based on most bracketologists to avoid Dayton.

So have some fun, stop complaining about the NET, and kick back and watch some CBB besides Seton Hall and the Big East.
Click to expand...
Clemson lost yesterday.
 
Well we can be a 1 seed in the NIT and have done riveting games at Walsh in front of a stage. The gut feels not good on getting in.
 
Washington state beats Stanford.

Both Arizona and WSU in the PAC12 semifinals in an attempt to prevent a bid stealer from that conference.
 
Out of our control now.Have to wait until Sunday.No whining if we're out or don't like Dayton as we missed our chance tonight.I?Interior defense was weak as was interior offense.Wasu and Dawes played well.Other starters Eh.
 
Last edited:
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Updated: Edited after Colorado and New Mexico late results

LAST 4 BYES
Oklahoma - lost (3/13) to TCU - should be IN
Michigan St - beat Minnesota / up next Purdue - should be IN

After that it’s kind of wide open
Mississippi St - beat LSU / up next Tennessee
Seton Hall - lost to SJU
SJU - beat SHU / UConn up next
Colorado - beat Utah / up next WSU
Virginia - beat BC in OT / up next NC St
Providence - beat CU / Nova or MU up next
New Mexico beat Boise St / up next CSU
Indiana St - lost in MVC Finals
South Florida - Needs win AAC tournament
Texas A&M - Beat Ole Miss / Kentucky up next
Pittsburgh - beat Wake / UNC up next
Ohio St - beat Iowa - Illinois up next
Villanova lost to Marquette - should be OUT
Wake Forrest - lost to Pitt - should be OUT
Kansas st - lost to Iowa St - OUT
Iowa - lost to Ohio St - OUT
Cincinnati - lost to Baylor - OUT

Dayton lost to Duquense - A10 is a bid stealer
ACC - UNC left to prevent bid steal (Semis)
PAC12 - AZ / WSU left to prevent bid steal (semis)

Some late night action still to go.

9 spots for 14 teams
 
Last edited:
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Resumes of the remaining bubble teams. I’ll post Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, or Ohio St if they win their next game.

Oklahoma
Best Wins:
N: Iowa
H: Providence, Iowa St, BYU
A: Cincinnati, K-State

Bad Losses:
None

NET: 44
SOR: 30
OOC SOS: 269
SOS: 15
Quad 1: 4-12
Quad 1/2: 9-12

Michigan St (19-13)
Best Wins:
H: Baylor, Indiana St, Illinois

Bad Losses:
NONE

NET: 24
SOR: 45
OOC SOS: 17
SOS: 41
Quad 1: 4-8
Quad 1/2: 10-13

Mississippi St. (20-12)
Best Wins:
N: Washington St, Northwestern
H: Tennessee, Auburn

Bad Losses:
Southern

NET: 42
SOR: 56
OOC SOS: 37
SOS: 232
Quad 1: 3-8
Quad 1/2: 7-11

Seton Hall (20-12)
Best Wins:
H: UCONN, Marquette, SJU, Nova
A: SJU, Providence

Bad Losses:
Rutgers

NET: 64
SOR: 33
OOC SOS: 228
SOS: 35
Quad 1: 5-7
Quad 1/2: 9-11

Colorado (23-9)
Best Wins:
N: Utah
H: Utah, Washington St.
A: Oregon

Bad Losses:
None

NET: 26
SOR: 42
OOC SOS: 255
SOS: 85
Quad 1: 2-5
Quad 1/2: 8-10

St. John’s (20-12)
Best Wins:
N: Utah
H: Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, Nova
A: Nova

Bad Losses:
Michigan

NET: 39
SOR: 32
OOC SOS: 164
SOS: 34
Quad 1: 4-9
Quad 1/2: 10-11

Virginia (23-9)
Best Wins:
N: Florida
H: Texas A&M, Wake Forrest
A: Clemson

Bad Losses:
NONE

NET: 52
SOR: 31
OOC SOS: 173
SOS: 78
Quad 1: 2-7
Quad 1/2: 10-9

New Mexico (24-9)
Best Wins:
N: Boise St.
H: San Diego St, Colorado St, Nevada, Utah St,
A: Nevada

Bad Losses:
UNLV, Air Force

NET: 25
SOR: 71
OOC SOS: 272
SOS: 89
Quad 1: 4-6
Quad 1/2: 7-7

Providence (23-9)
Best Wins:
N: Creighton
H: Marquette, Wisconsin, Creighton
A: Seton Hall

Bad Losses:
NONE

NET: 62
SOR: 46
OOC SOS: 239
SOS: 45
Quad 1: 6-8
Quad 1/2: 9-12

Indiana St (27-6)
Best Wins:
H: Bradley, Drake
A: Bradley

Bad Losses:
Illinois St.

NET: 27
SOR: 39
OOC SOS: 187
SOS: 130
Quad 1: 1-4
Quad 1/2: 5-5

Villanova (18-15)
Best Wins:
N: Texas Tech / UNC
H: Providence, Seton Hall
A: Creighton, Providence

Bad Losses:
Penn, St Joes, Drexel

NET: 40
SOR: 60
OOC SOS: 72
SOS: 24
Quad 1: 4-11
Quad 1/2: 10-12
 
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HallGuy23 said:
I have a feeling we will be left out and will be that team everybody on tv and radio screams about that got screwed.
Click to expand...
agreed. Pretty unanimous that big east will get 5 teams in.

I think we’re sitting in the last 4 in right now. We’re a Providence win away today from being out
 
Dizzying with these conference tournaments. And it seems they’re analyzed less in recent years.
 
setonball46 said:
Kinda chuckling 2 days ago the confrence tournament meant nothing - we are in
Click to expand...
no one saw the dumpster fire of a game we had yesterday coming.

BUT..... if it is true that the committee gives regular season games more weight than conference tournament matches then we have a chance. This morning Lunardi has us vs Virginia in Dayton for the 11 seed in MW.
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
Updated: Edited after Colorado and New Mexico late results

LAST 4 BYES
Oklahoma - lost (3/13) to TCU - should be IN
Michigan St - beat Minnesota / up next Purdue - should be IN

After that it’s kind of wide open
Mississippi St - beat LSU / up next Tennessee
Seton Hall - lost to SJU
SJU - beat SHU / UConn up next
Colorado - beat Utah / up next WSU
Virginia - beat BC in OT / up next NC St
Providence - beat CU / Nova or MU up next
New Mexico beat Boise St / up next CSU
Indiana St - lost in MVC Finals
South Florida - Needs win AAC tournament
Texas A&M - Beat Ole Miss / Kentucky up next
Pittsburgh - beat Wake / UNC up next
Ohio St - beat Iowa - Illinois up next
Villanova lost to Marquette - should be OUT
Wake Forrest - lost to Pitt - should be OUT
Kansas st - lost to Iowa St - OUT
Iowa - lost to Ohio St - OUT
Cincinnati - lost to Baylor - OUT

Dayton lost to Duquense - A10 is a bid stealer
ACC - UNC left to prevent bid steal (Semis)
PAC12 - AZ / WSU left to prevent bid steal (semis)

Some late night action still to go.

9 spots for 14 teams
Click to expand...
so you are saying 9 teams of the 14 teams listed from Oklahoma on down thru Ohio St...is that correct? So, if you take into account the two that you count as "locks" (Oklahoma and Michigan St) it is really 7 of the remaining 12...or stated another way, we have to find 5 of those teams that would be denied before us.

Looking at that list...hmm. Colorado seems to be in after last night, 1 down; Virginia ditto, 2 down; St. Johns who have been metric darlings all along, couple that with Pitino, 3 down;

So 4 from among us. Mississippi St., Providence, New Mexico, Indiana St., South Florida, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh and Ohio State.

So we need to beat out 5 of those 9 teams.

Pitt....hopefully they lose to NC for 1.

I will now look at your analysis with this in mind.

boy we could have made this a whole lot easier with a win yesterday...
 
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The Crows Nest said:
so you are saying 9 teams of the 14 teams listed from Oklahoma on down thru Ohio St...is that correct? So, if you take into account the two that you count as "locks" (Oklahoma and Michigan St) it is really 7 of the remaining 12...or stated another way, we have to find 5 of those teams that would be denied before us.

Looking at that list...hmm. Colorado seems to be in after last night, 1 down; Virginia ditto, 2 down; St. Johns who have been metric darlings all along, couple that with Pitino, 3 down;

So 4 from among us. Mississippi St., Providence, New Mexico, Indiana St., South Florida, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh and Ohio State.

So we need to beat out 5 of those 9 teams.

Pitt....hopefully they lose to NC for 1.

I will now look at your analysis with this in mind.

boy we could have made this a whole lot easier with a win yesterday...
Click to expand...
I will amend what I typed above and no longer say Virginia is in...to me, still some work to do.

I don't get Indiana St. getting a bid....so I have them hopefully behind us (whether with or without a bid);
Pitt, A&M and Ohio St. I have out without another win.

We need at least 1 more...

oh...and you have 1 too many wins against us for Providence....lol....maybe that puts them behind us!
 
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We will have to see what happens. Nonetheless, when you are comparing a bunch of resumes, i just think you look at our bad metrics and it really hurts us. The blowout losses are just awful.

According to Wachtel, we are the first team in the last 4. Here is his list

First Four Teams - SHU, Texas A&M, Providence and Virginia
Texas A&M vs Kentucky, Providence vs Marquette and Virginia vs NC St

Next 5 out - Colorado, Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Indiana St and Ohio St.
Colorado vs Wash St; Pitt vs UNC; NM vs Colorado St, Indiana St is done playing games and Ohio St vs Illinois
 
the thing if the hall misses out is what message does it send as to the value of conference play? A 13-7 big east with 20 regular season wins not getting in would be quite the message by the committee. It is also tough to know how much stock the committee puts into conference tournaments since so much of it is draw/matchup based. Virginia is the perfect example they are in the semis of the ACC but instead of having to go through Clemson and Duke to reach the final they end up playing BC and NC State.
 
I await the posts on how the committee screwed shu yet again either by placement to dayton and then a distant pod city with an inconvenient tip time 2 days later
 
We really need to see the updated projections of the Bubble Teams. Although our loss to SJU looks worse than it actually was we should not go from last four teams with a bye to first four out. I'm thinking like second position of last teams in, something like that.
 
Hall2015Alum said:
the thing if the hall misses out is what message does it send as to the value of conference play? A 13-7 big east with 20 regular season wins not getting in would be quite the message by the committee. It is also tough to know how much stock the committee puts into conference tournaments since so much of it is draw/matchup based. Virginia is the perfect example they are in the semis of the ACC but instead of having to go through Clemson and Duke to reach the final they end up playing BC and NC State.
Click to expand...
The message it sends is don’t get run out of the gym when you lose games.
 
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HallGuy23 said:
lol, there’s no chance Gonzaga is a 10 seed. They are 6 or 7
Click to expand...
Gonzaga has 2 great wins, pretty pedestrian rest of way, in the field safely but nothing stands out to enhance their seed line regardless of what their latest ap poll was. 8 or 9 to me.
 
The Crows Nest said:
I will amend what I typed above and no longer say Virginia is in...to me, still some work to do.

I don't get Indiana St. getting a bid....so I have them hopefully behind us (whether with or without a bid);
Pitt, A&M and Ohio St. I have out without another win.

We need at least 1 more...

oh...and you have 1 too many wins against us for Providence....lol....maybe that puts them behind us!
Click to expand...
I didn’t give me personal rank out of that list. So here goes.

I do think Oklahoma and Mich St. are locks to be in. But could be a last four IN team depending on what the committee wants to do. But I have them ranked 1-2 of the bubble group and ahead of us.

Next after last nights late games…
3. Mississippi St - last 4 byes
4. Seton Hall - last 4 byes
5. SJU - Dayton
6. Colorado - Dayton
7. New Mexico - Dayton
8. Providence - Dayton

9. Virginia
10. Illinois St
11. Texas A&M
12 Nova
13 Pitt
14 Ohio St
15 South Florida.

I think we could still be a bye but most likely Dayton especially with games to be played and a couple more bid stealers still lurking.

Hopefully Pitt / OSU / Texas A&M go down today and the list shrinks to 9 teams for 8 spots and we are rooting against bid stealers plus others winning again and jumping us.
 
LeftCoastPirates said:
I didn’t give me personal rank out of that list. So here goes.

I do think Oklahoma and Mich St. are locks to be in. But could be a last four IN team depending on what the committee wants to do. But I have them ranked 1-2 of the bubble group and ahead of us.

Next after last nights late games…
3. Mississippi St - last 4 byes
4. Seton Hall - last 4 byes
5. SJU - Dayton
6. Colorado - Dayton
7. New Mexico - Dayton
8. Providence - Dayton

9. Virginia
10. Illinois St
11. Texas A&M
12 Nova
13 Pitt
14 Ohio St
15 South Florida.

I think we could still be a bye but most likely Dayton especially with games to be played and a couple more bid stealers still lurking.

Hopefully Pitt / OSU / Texas A&M go down today and the list shrinks to 9 teams for 8 spots and we are rooting against bid stealers plus others winning again and jumping us.
Click to expand...

There is 0 chance that Virginia, despite being painfully average, with a 22-9 record and a 3rd place finish in the ACC is left out. They are 17-9 in Q1-Q3 games.... Providence is 10-12 in Q1-Q3. Providence needs to win tonight.
 
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setonball46 said:
Kinda chuckling 2 days ago the confrence tournament meant nothing - we are in
Click to expand...
I wonder about that also. But, now I saw Lunardi and others saying Sunday or even Sat. games of conference tournaments are not taken into consideration for at large bids.
 
sussexcopirate said:
There is 0 chance that Virginia, despite being painfully average, with a 22-9 record and a 3rd place finish in the ACC is left out. They are 17-9 in Q1-Q3 games.... Providence is 10-12 in Q1-Q3. Providence needs to win tonight.
Click to expand...
It’s close. Not a lot of substance in the Virgina resume. Metrics aren’t phenomenal either.

Providence can really solidify their spot vs Marquette. Not sure if UVA moves the needle vs NC St.
 
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