Jersey Shore Nightclub Closes for 2020 Summer

[HALL85]

That's not really an accurate statement. We do not have a way to know what impact that had on transmission.



Yes, we are definitely under reported but we don't really know the magnitude yet.
That site you linked to previously projects we are about 9x under reported which if true would place the r0 value to be a bit higher than initial estimates.

If that is true, then it is even more apparent that we did the right thing to decrease the velocity of the spread.
That site estimates almost every state had an r0 greater than 1 and the social distancing / stay at home orders reduced that number to be less than 1 in every state. I don't think some people appreciate what this could have done to our healthcare system and the panic that would have caused had we not shut down.

The post mortem this virus will be interesting. Outside of a handful of hospitals, we haven’t come close to stressing the capacity of our healthcare system. It has shown a number of flaws in being too dependent on PPE from China and variations from hospital to hospital. Some systems have done an incredible job; some, just awful.

Some questions....should we have done more radical containment (all flights/interstate travel vs sheltering across the board? Focus more on isolating at risk (elderly and those with co-morbities) rather than healthy?

 

[Merge]

The post mortem this virus will be interesting. Outside of a handful of hospitals, we haven’t come close to stressing the capacity of our healthcare system.

Given the rate of hospitalizations per infection and the apparent r0 value in every state, has we not shut down when we did I do believe we would have easily exceeded capacity in many parts of the country.

It has shown a number of flaws in being too dependent on PPE from China and variations from hospital to hospital. Some systems have done an incredible job; some, just awful.

That is true, and we will also need to address who is (and should be) responsible for preparing for a pandemic.

Some questions....should we have done more radical containment (all flights/interstate travel vs sheltering across the board? Focus more on isolating at risk (elderly and those with co-morbities) rather than healthy?

It’s still difficult to answer that. I’m sure we could think of better solutions in hindsight, but it’s hard to say for certain what was really an option and how the public would have responded.

There was so much unknown in mid March. I think we aimed to err on the side of caution, and I’m personally glad we took that route.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/04/miami...-nearly-9000-people-violate-face-mask-policy/

 

[HALL85]

Given the rate of hospitalizations per infection and the apparent r0 value in every state, has we not shut down when we did I do believe we would have easily exceeded capacity in many parts of the country.




That is true, and we will also need to address who is (and should be) responsible for preparing for a pandemic.




It’s still difficult to answer that. I’m sure we could think of better solutions in hindsight, but it’s hard to say for certain what was really an option and how the public would have responded.

There was so much unknown in mid March. I think we aimed to err on the side of caution, and I’m personally glad we took that route.

Let’s see where the data takes us, but it looks pretty obvious that if we had restricted access from the source (China) and the movement of those that were carrying it early on we could’ve avoided a lot of hospitalizations and death (which ultimately were the two most important objectives). When the first infection was identified in New York, if bridges and tunnels and all movement between New York and New Jersey was stopped, New Jersey wouldn’t have had the same results.

It’s interesting that the market is already adjusting on how to handle this in the future. Hospital systems are engaging with each other, consultants are emerging, and alternative sourcing strategies are being developed.

 

[Merge]

Let’s see where the data takes us, but it looks pretty obvious that if we had restricted access from the source (China) and the movement of those that were carrying it early on we could’ve avoided a lot of hospitalizations and death (which ultimately were the two most important objectives). When the first infection was identified in New York, if bridges and tunnels and all movement between New York and New Jersey was stopped, New Jersey wouldn’t have had the same results.

First case identified in NY was March 1st?

I don’t think you’re an unreasonable person, but you were no where close to accepting that as a possibility on March 1st. A move like that would have been extraordinarily difficult and would have caused complete chaos at that point. It's easy to look back and say something could have resulted in a better outcome, but also have to factor in if something was actually possible and the potential public response.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

First case identified in NY was March 1st?

I don’t think you’re an unreasonable person, but you were no where close to accepting that as a possibility on March 1st. A move like that would have been extraordinarily difficult and would have caused complete chaos at that point. It's easy to look back and say something could have resulted in a better outcome, but also have to factor in if something was actually possible and the potential public response.

South korea and usa had first documented cases around same time, yes usa far more people but south korea a more pleasant culture and disciplined and look where they are now

 

[Merge]

South korea and usa had first documented cases around same time, yes usa far more people but south korea a more pleasant culture and disciplined and look where they are now

Correct, our culture would not tolerate the restrictions placed in South Korea.

 

[HALL85]

First case identified in NY was March 1st?

I don’t think you’re an unreasonable person, but you were no where close to accepting that as a possibility on March 1st. A move like that would have been extraordinarily difficult and would have caused complete chaos at that point. It's easy to look back and say something could have resulted in a better outcome, but also have to factor in if something was actually possible and the potential public response.

I would agree that public response has to be factored in, but if the goal was to best manage our capacity and limit deaths, it would have been the most prudent thing to do for the country. And it's not like the public has embraced the shelter and hold strategy either. Let's face it, no matter what the administration would have done, it would have been messy because of the cultural pushback. My point was about the most effective way to limit spread and fatalities which are the two most important metrics.

 

[knowknow456]

The following is a fictional account of public reaction to shutting down interstate travel.

So, it’s March 14th and me and the missus are sitting around the kitchen table reading the newspaper having our coffee. Suddenly our daughter Belinda calls.

“Did you hear the news? The Governors of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have closed their borders. We can’t leave the state!”

“What?!” I exclaim. “Tonight is that class in NYC that I have been dying to take. How will we get there if they close the roads?”

My wife replies, “You know, maybe this flu thing is serious. Belinda's boyfriend Billy’s buddy Bobby is pretty sick with something. Maybe he has it.”

I said, “Don’t be ridiculous, he’s young, he’ll be fine. There’s like 500 cases in the whole country. What an overreaction by our clueless politicians!”

“Maybe,” says my wife “but it’s better to be safe than sorry, and besides, the borders are closed. So that’s that.”

“Now don’t you start with me. Everyone knows this is an overblown crisis manufactured by the MSM. We just need common sense balanced with living our life. There is risk driving to the class. We could be killed on the way! I wanna go!”

“I know dear, your right. Why don’t you go in the living room and practice your putting and maybe later we can do a little home cooking.”

“Ooh boy, good idea!”

 

[HALL85]

Typical troll response....

 

[Bobbie Solo]

The following is a fictional account of public reaction to shutting down interstate travel.

So, it’s March 14th and me and the missus are sitting around the kitchen table reading the newspaper having our coffee. Suddenly our daughter Belinda calls.

“Did you hear the news? The Governors of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have closed their borders. We can’t leave the state!”

“What?!” I exclaim. “Tonight is that class in NYC that I have been dying to take. How will we get there if they close the roads?”

My wife replies, “You know, maybe this flu thing is serious. Belinda's boyfriend Billy’s buddy Bobby is pretty sick with something. Maybe he has it.”

I said, “Don’t be ridiculous, he’s young, he’ll be fine. There’s like 500 cases in the whole country. What an overreaction by our clueless politicians!”

“Maybe,” says my wife “but it’s better to be safe than sorry, and besides, the borders are closed. So that’s that.”

“Now don’t you start with me. Everyone knows this is an overblown crisis manufactured by the MSM. We just need common sense balanced with living our life. There is risk driving to the class. We could be killed on the way! I wanna go!”

“I know dear, your right. Why don’t you go in the living room and practice your putting and maybe later we can do a little home cooking.”

“Ooh boy, good idea!”

too good. “Belinda's boyfriend Billy’s buddy Bobby” aaaahaha.

 

[shu09]

Typical troll response....

Very, very strange. Someone with too much time on his hands.

 

[anon_ezos2e9wn1ob0]

The following is a fictional account of public reaction to shutting down interstate travel.

So, it’s March 14th and me and the missus are sitting around the kitchen table reading the newspaper having our coffee. Suddenly our daughter Belinda calls.

“Did you hear the news? The Governors of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have closed their borders. We can’t leave the state!”

“What?!” I exclaim. “Tonight is that class in NYC that I have been dying to take. How will we get there if they close the roads?”

My wife replies, “You know, maybe this flu thing is serious. Belinda's boyfriend Billy’s buddy Bobby is pretty sick with something. Maybe he has it.”

I said, “Don’t be ridiculous, he’s young, he’ll be fine. There’s like 500 cases in the whole country. What an overreaction by our clueless politicians!”

“Maybe,” says my wife “but it’s better to be safe than sorry, and besides, the borders are closed. So that’s that.”

“Now don’t you start with me. Everyone knows this is an overblown crisis manufactured by the MSM. We just need common sense balanced with living our life. There is risk driving to the class. We could be killed on the way! I wanna go!”

“I know dear, your right. Why don’t you go in the living room and practice your putting and maybe later we can do a little home cooking.”

“Ooh boy, good idea!”

What a strange convo. Now do one for the left wing nuts that normalize transgender bs (assuming that is you from your rainbow peace sign) and any other wacky shit that nobody wants.

 

[shufan1993]

After reading the latest studies and talking to a couple of my friends in Jersey hospitals today this is really far from over. Deaths in this country will keep going up at a dramatic pace in June. One of my doctor friends already said his hospital is going to start having training sessions for what is to come in the fall/winter 2021. My doctor friend is a big time college basketball fan and he said there is no chance there is a college basketball season next year.

These states reopening early will possibly cause infections to double and some studies are predicting 135,000 deaths by August.

 

[donnie_baseball]

View embedded media

Oh, well if that born liar said it. What happened to his staffer, Katie Brennan, anyway?

 

[Seton75]

When I drank at the Osprey (which was rare, stayed between AP and Belmar...), on some nights, I may have invented social distancing, or at least encouraged it.

Wow, like Djais, been there forever. Some tough Squan kids were always hanging at the osprey. Or at Joe Crine's on Rt 71...

 

[donnie_baseball]

After reading the latest studies and talking to a couple of my friends in Jersey hospitals today this is really far from over. Deaths in this country will keep going up at a dramatic pace in June. One of my doctor friends already said his hospital is going to start having training sessions for what is to come in the fall/winter 2021. My doctor friend is a big time college basketball fan and he said there is no chance there is a college basketball season next year.

These states reopening early will possibly cause infections to double and some studies are predicting 135,000 deaths by August.

I would submit that if your doctor friend is correct, it's because he had a 50/50 chance, like any Yes/No guess. NCAA and conference physicians have not used any language close to that.

 

[shufan1993]

I would submit that if your doctor friend is correct, it's because he had a 50/50 chance, like any Yes/No guess. NCAA and conference physicians have not used any language close to that.

Have you read about the second wave that will occur later this year? Its going to be brutal if stay at home orders and opening non essential businesses will be reopened. That's will will most likely happen.

 

[Merge]

Have you read about the second wave that will occur later this year? Its going to be brutal if stay at home orders and opening non essential businesses will be reopened. That's will will most likely happen.

Still a lot of unknowns to say things in absolutes regarding something that is 6 months away right now though.

Still need to know how many people have had it. Are we immune once we have been infected? Will herd immunity be effective? Will a vaccine be available? will a new treatment be available? Will we be able to identify it earlier? Will basic social distancing & masks used by the public be enough to reduce the r0 value to below 1? etc...

Depending on the answers to those questions, you may be correct, or you may be wrong but we won't really know the answers for a while.

 

[Seton75]

One funny memory from DJs. Was there Fourth of July weekend during the bicentennial and some guy walks in and order is 200 beers for everyone. At the time they were five for a dollar, And they did fill his order.

85, in the 70s, 10 for a dollar.

 

[shufan1993]

Still a lot of unknowns to say things in absolutes regarding something that is 6 months away right now though.

Still need to know how many people have had it. Are we immune once we have been infected? Will herd immunity be effective? Will a vaccine be available? will a new treatment be available? Will we be able to identify it earlier? Will basic social distancing & masks used by the public be enough to reduce the r0 value to below 1? etc...

Depending on the answers to those questions, you may be correct, or you may be wrong but we won't really know the answers for a while.

There were studies that predicted what is going on back right now back in February. They are now calling for brutal second waves in the fall/winter. I trust those studies. Please remember I was called a "moron" and "alarmist" on this board a couple months ago when I mentioned those studies on this board and warned of this pandemic. Just trying to warn you again. But it is fine if people don't want to listen.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Have you read about the second wave that will occur later this year? Its going to be brutal if stay at home orders and opening non essential businesses will be reopened. That's will will most likely happen.

No, that's what may possibly happen. Stay at home and non essential will be relaxed LONG before the predicted second wave. Kooks like you were talking about a death toll in the millions back in February, too.

I know, we'll all be wearing masks for the rest of our lives.

 

[shufan1993]

No, that's what may possibly happen. Stay at home and non essential will be opened long before the predicted second wave. Kooks like you were talking about a death toll in the millions back in February, too.

I know, we'll all be wearing masks for the rest of our lives.

That's correct. I agree stay at home and non essential businesses will be reopened long before second wave. As a result of the stay at home orders being lifted off infections will skyrocket in the fall and winter. This will cause another country wide shutdown.

And year when this is over 1 or 2 years down the line people will never want to leave the house without a mask again. They will adapt to this behavior

 

[donnie_baseball]

That's correct. I agree stay at home and non essential businesses will be reopened long before second wave. As a result of the stay at home orders being lifted off infections will skyrocket in the fall and winter. This will cause another country wide shutdown.

And year when this is over 1 or 2 years down the line people will never want to leave the house without a mask again. They will adapt to this behavior

What is the 1993? Did you graduate that year, or is that when you were born? Wondering if I went to school when you did. Also, do you get an annual flu shot?

 

[shufan1993]

What is the 1993? Did you graduate that year, or is that when you were born? Wondering if I went to school when you did. Also, do you get an annual flu shot?

Neither. Year I got married. And yes I do. What's your point? Coronavirus and flu are totalled different. Tiresome people still compare the two. As experts have said a vaccine could take a very long time to develop for the Coronavirus. It can take a few years to a decade.

 

[Merge]

There were studies that predicted what is going on back right now back in February. They are now calling for brutal second waves in the fall/winter. I trust those studies. Please remember I was called a "moron" and "alarmist" on this board a couple months ago when I mentioned those studies on this board and warned of this pandemic. Just trying to warn you again. But it is fine if people don't want to listen.

Yeah, people thought I was being crazy as well for how concerned I was back in Feb / early March.

You might be right if we all go back to normal with no concern about a 2nd wave, and can't identify cases more quickly, and do not have a breakthrough on treatments or vaccines... I'm a bit more optimistic than to think all of that.

I'd also be more optimistic if we learned that 20% of NJ and NY has had the virus, and is no longer at risk or getting infected or spreading the virus... I would be much less optimistic if only 3% of each state has had the virus, or if we can be reinfected.

Just too much we don't know right now and so much can change in the next 6 months.

 

[Merge]

Kooks like you were talking about a death toll in the millions back in February, too.

Those estimates were if we did nothing, and probably not far the mark.

 

[HALL85]

The only thing that matters with the second wave is what mattered with the first phase. Do we have enough hospital capacity to handle it? Outside of a few isolated cases, we never came close to stressing or hospital capacity.

By the time the second wave hits there will be more tests available, more investigation on therapies and eventually a vaccine. None of those which were available during the first wave. We also now have data and experience in dealing with it.

 

[HALL85]

Those estimates were if we did nothing, and probably not far the mark.

It might be better to probably look at those countries that took actions other than shelter in place as a proxy for what would have happened here and extrapolate against our population.

 

[shufan1993]

The only thing that matters with the second wave is what mattered with the first phase. Do we have enough hospital capacity to handle it? Outside of a few isolated cases, we never came close to stressing or hospital capacity.

You have to remember in the fall and winter there will be flu and Coronavirus cases. This is why the fall/winter will be absolutely brutal. You don't have as many flu cases now.

By the time the second wave hits there will be more tests available, more investigation on therapies and eventually a vaccine. None of those which were available during the first wave. We also now have data and experience in dealing with it.

 

[Save Continental]

Neither. Year I got married. And yes I do. What's your point? Coronavirus and flu are totalled different. Tiresome people still compare the two. As experts have said a vaccine could take a very long time to develop for the Coronavirus. It can take a few years to a decade.

You got married in 1993, yet last week you told us a "guy you went to college with" just passed at 29 from the virus.

That kid must have been a wiz in pre school.

Hopefully everyone stops responding to your horse shit.

 

[Merge]

It might be better to probably look at those countries that took actions other than shelter in place as a proxy for what would have happened here and extrapolate against our population.

There are lots of variables, but based on the modeling from that site that shu09 posted a couple times showing a mortality rate of about 1% - Their r0 value for the US went from 2.25 pre-mitigation efforts to 0.9 post mitigation. With a spread that fast an no herd immunity, you'd have to assume 30% getting effected eventually is not really a stretch. if 1% is accurate. That would be a million deaths.

 

[HALL85]

There are lots of variables, but based on the modeling from that site that shu09 posted a couple times showing a mortality rate of about 1% - Their r0 value for the US went from 2.25 pre-mitigation efforts to 0.9 post mitigation. With a spread that fast an no herd immunity, you'd have to assume 30% getting effected eventually is not really a stretch. if 1% is accurate. That would be a million deaths.

That’s hypothetical. It would be more accurate to look at countries that tool less rigid steps and compare numbers.

 

[shu09]

You got married in 1993, yet last week you told us a "guy you went to college with" just passed at 29 from the virus.

That kid must have been a wiz in pre school.

Hopefully everyone stops responding to your horse shit.

Boom

 

[shufan1993]

You got married in 1993, yet last week you told us a "guy you went to college with" just passed at 29 from the virus.

That kid must have been a wiz in pre school.

Hopefully everyone stops responding to your horse shit.

Yes I got married at 21. I wasn't ready to go to college then. I had to work my a** off for years to actually afford a college education. After some health issues I finally entered college at 37 and graduated college at the ripe age of 41 years old. I am now 47. And no I didn't go to Seton Hall. I'm a huge fan of the basketball team.

Can't believe I just had to explain a very shortened life story. But you CLEARLY don't know what you are talking about.

 

[Merge]

That’s hypothetical. It would be more accurate to look at countries that tool less rigid steps and compare numbers.

everything in any assumption is hypothetical.

Which countries specifically are you referring to?

 

[HALL85]

everything in any assumption is hypothetical.

Which countries specifically are you referring to?

No one in particular, but since it’s a global issue and countries have taken different paths, more accurate to extrapolate against real data.

 

[shufan1993]

Boom

Do I get a "Boom" for actually telling my life situation?

 

[knowknow456]

everything in any assumption is hypothetical.

Which countries specifically are you referring to?

Please don't ask that question. The last time we got this....

Why do countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Belarus have minimal numbers, even though they are on a continent that has some of the most horrendous numbers.

In mere 33 days, the following has occurred

Hungary's Prime Minister used the pandemic to suspend elections and declare he is ruling by decree.

Belarus now has over 19,000 cases, the most in Eastern Europe although a prevention regimen of Vodka, hot saunas and soccer did sound pretty enticing at the time . https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...-coronavirus-with-vodka-hot-saunas-and-soccer

Slovokia is still doing well, so that's a good thing.

 

[Merge]

No one in particular, but since it’s a global issue and countries have taken different paths, more accurate to extrapolate against real data.

Sure, lots of variables here but we can start with Sweden. With about 3k deaths to date assuming that 1% number is accurate, the number of cases there is underreported by 1,200%.

They are doing basic social distancing but of that did not bring down the transmission sufficiently enough, cases there will keep growing as will the number of deaths. If they hit 30k, which is Aviv ethe current estimate, but is within the range of potential outcomes, that would represent the same percentage as if the US lost a million lives.

but to have the debate on any of the variables, I’d need to understand what country you think we should compare ourselves to.