Jersey Shore Nightclub Closes for 2020 Summer

[HALL85]

Sure, lots of variables here but we can start with Sweden. With about 3k deaths to date assuming that 1% number is accurate, the number of cases there is underreported by 1,200%.

They are doing basic social distancing but of that did not bring down the transmission sufficiently enough, cases there will keep growing as will the number of deaths. If they hit 30k, which is Aviv ethe current estimate, but is within the range of potential outcomes, that would represent the same percentage as if the US lost a million lives.

but to have the debate on any of the variables, I’d need to understand what country you think we should compare ourselves to.

All I’m saying is that once we get to the point of being able to do a look back and compare total cases/fatalities against other countries and the measures they took, that’s when you can have a better indication of whether our outcomes would have been materially different. And remember the shelter in place was done to de-stress our healthcare system. If that was not a concern do you think we would have taken the same measures?. And Since you brought up Sweden, I don’t believe there healthcare system lacked capacity even by the steps they took.

Finally, just saw this tonight. Perplexing that 66% of new admissions from NY are those that have sheltered.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-...hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

[donnie_baseball]

Those estimates were if we did nothing, and probably not far the mark.

We will never know, but I doubt it. With our land mass and huge variations in population density from state-to-state, it's hard to compare with a place like Italy or Belarus.

The numbers that were being thrown around as the best case thankfully never came close to fruition. How much social distancing had to to with that is also up for debate.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Finally, just saw this tonight. Perplexing that 66% of new admissions from NY are those that have sheltered.https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-...hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

That is the most fascinating bit of data in the last few weeks. Obviously, these people, and all of us, can't shelter completely. I had a patient who got it, and swore she had done grocery deliveries, and not set foot anywhere (husband at home who is a transplant recipient) -- except for Chipotle last week, to do a food pickup. The contagiousness of it is astounding, and gives me hope, that if the infection rate is exponentially higher than thought - we may avoid or have a much less drastic second curve.

 

[donnie_baseball]

Neither. Year I got married. And yes I do. What's your point? Coronavirus and flu are totalled different. Tiresome people still compare the two. As experts have said a vaccine could take a very long time to develop for the Coronavirus. It can take a few years to a decade.

I didn't mean to pry about your personal life. I wasn't comparing the flu to SARS-Cov2, I was just wondering if someone so fearful of infectious disease was in the habit of being vaccinated. I am happy to hear that you are. If everyone who is so fearful and normally doesn't get the seasonal flu vaccine gets immunized this fall, we will be in a much better place.

And where have experts said a vaccine could take that long? I have heard predictions as optimistic as Q1 of 2021 and many say Q3.

 

[HALL85]

That is the most fascinating bit of data in the last few weeks. Obviously, these people, and all of us, can't shelter completely. I had a patient who got it, and swore she had done grocery deliveries, and not set foot anywhere (husband at home who is a transplant recipient) -- except for Chipotle last week, to do a food pickup. The contagiousness of it is astounding, and gives me hope, that if the infection rate is exponentially higher than thought - we may avoid or have a much less drastic second curve.

I think the other thing that will be interesting as we get more data is how much of our fatality rate is tied to the basic underlying poor health of our population. The early studies are pointing to those with co-morbitities account for the vast majority (well over 90%) of hospitalizations and death. Our rate of coronary heart disease, diabetes and obesity is much, much higher than most countries. We didn't know this in February, but it is critical in providing guidance going forward. This should also be a wake-up call if you're in one of those categories and can do something about it to reduce your personal risk.

I haven't seen any published data from Italy, but they have an elderly population and a high rate of smoking (which compromises lung health capacity).

 

[shufan1993]

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-and-why-the-risk-may-still-be-too-great.html

 

[SPK145]

Pennsylvania reports: average coronavirus death age 79; 67% happened in nursing homes

Average age of COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania is 79 years old and 67% occurred in nursing homes.

Pennsylvania health officials says 79 is the average age for coronvirus-related deaths in the state and that nearly 68% of those deaths occurred in assisted-living facilities – in one of the first state-based reports to breaking down virus statistics by age demographics.

The speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, Mike Turzai, announced the finding in a letter Wednesday to chamber members, after state Secretary of Health, Dr. Rachel Levine informed chamber leaders about the data.
Beyond the finding about the average age, the letter also states the 67.9% of the 3,106 people who have so far died in Pennsylvania – or 2,108 people – were living in nursing, personal-care and assisted-living facilities. The number translates to the 67.9% of all virus-deaths in these types of settings.

Of the 3,106 persons who have died, 11.9% had four comorbidities, 22.7% had three, 27.2% had two, 22.6% had one and 11% had zero.

Turzai pointed out that the percentages only add up to 95.% but that the statistics that were provided to leadership "verbally."

Statistical underlying conditions were broken down further: 61% had hypertension, 54% had heart disease, 37% had diabetes and 30% had chronic pulmonary disease.

Pennsylvania has 37,000 hospital beds, and as of Wednesday, according to Turzai, 2,572 patients, or 6.95%, occupied the available beds in the state.

 

[shu09]

Incredible, we shut down the whole country for this.

 

[knowknow456]

Mother: Rupert, are you there? It’s me, mom.

Rupert: Good afternoon, Mother. How are your symptoms?

Mother: Not good. The ambulance brought me to the hospital. They said I may have to go on a ventilator.

Rupert: That would be most unfortunate.

Mother: I’m scared I am going to die!

Rupert: Your fears are well founded. Did you know a study from Northwell Health concluded 88% of patients who go on a ventilator die?

Mother: I can’t believe it. I was so careful.

Rupert: Statistically mother, you are in a high risk class. You should not be surprised.

Mother: I just pray you will be ok.

Rupert: I am a low risk and may have already had the disease.

Mother: The doctor is here. Pray for me. I love you!

Rupert: All the best, mother. If you can, reach out tomorrow afternoon. I have an early morning tee time.

 

[HALL85]

Pennsylvania reports: average coronavirus death age 79; 67% happened in nursing homes

Average age of COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania is 79 years old and 67% occurred in nursing homes.

Pennsylvania health officials says 79 is the average age for coronvirus-related deaths in the state and that nearly 68% of those deaths occurred in assisted-living facilities – in one of the first state-based reports to breaking down virus statistics by age demographics.

The speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, Mike Turzai, announced the finding in a letter Wednesday to chamber members, after state Secretary of Health, Dr. Rachel Levine informed chamber leaders about the data.
Beyond the finding about the average age, the letter also states the 67.9% of the 3,106 people who have so far died in Pennsylvania – or 2,108 people – were living in nursing, personal-care and assisted-living facilities. The number translates to the 67.9% of all virus-deaths in these types of settings.

Of the 3,106 persons who have died, 11.9% had four comorbidities, 22.7% had three, 27.2% had two, 22.6% had one and 11% had zero.

Turzai pointed out that the percentages only add up to 95.% but that the statistics that were provided to leadership "verbally."

Statistical underlying conditions were broken down further: 61% had hypertension, 54% had heart disease, 37% had diabetes and 30% had chronic pulmonary disease.

Pennsylvania has 37,000 hospital beds, and as of Wednesday, according to Turzai, 2,572 patients, or 6.95%, occupied the available beds in the state.

https://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2020/05/lv-infectious-disease-expert-claims.html?m=1

View from an Infectious Disease MD as well...

 

[Pirata]

Pennsylvania reports: average coronavirus death age 79; 67% happened in nursing homes

New numbers in the paper this morning for PA.

69% in Nursing homes.

3,416 total with 2,355 in nursing homes.

That leaves 1,016 died who were not in nursing homes.

They do not report how many of those had pre-existing conditions.

Odds are high that it was not zero.

1,016 out of a state with 12.8M people. 0.008%

I am not buying the "it probably would have been millions if we did not shutdown" argument.

Attention liberals and lefties: This is your opportunity to wrongly conclude that I do not care about people in nursing homes.

 

[Pirata]

Rupert: All the best, mother. If you can, reach out tomorrow afternoon. I have an early morning tee time.

I played yesterday. Shot an 82. Had a double bogey on 18. I am sure I could have saved a stroke on another hole with a little better course management. Another missed opportunity to break 80.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

New numbers in the paper this morning for PA.

69% in Nursing homes.

3,416 total with 2,355 in nursing homes.

That leaves 1,016 died who were not in nursing homes.

They do not report how many of those had pre-existing conditions.

Odds are high that it was not zero.

1,016 out of a state with 12.8M people. 0.008%

I am not buying the "it probably would have been millions if we did not shutdown" argument.

Attention liberals and lefties: This is your opportunity to wrongly conclude that I do not care about people in nursing homes.

Wow that is one selfish self serving take

 

[knowknow456]

I played yesterday. Shot an 82. Had a double bogey on 18. I am sure I could have saved a stroke on another hole with a little better course management. Another missed opportunity to break 80.

It bodes well for the season if you are flirting with 80 in early May. I never get close to breaking 80, unless it rains after the 14th hole.

 

[shufan1993]

I had to laugh last night when I watched Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN. That had this lady who they said "Prophesied" the Coronavirus. Now she is saying worse case scenario is we will like this for 36 months. Is the purpose of that show to fear monger?

What are your guys thoughts on Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta?

 

[Merge]

I am not buying the "it probably would have been millions if we did not shutdown" argument.

Currently projected to hit 183k by Aug4

https://covid19-projections.com/

and that is considering with dropped the rate of spread significantly during March going from each infected person infecting 2-3 others to every infected person infecting less than 1 person in every state.

I don't really understand what data people are looking at to think we would end up with less than a million had we done nothing.

 

[HALL85]

I don't really understand what data people are looking at to think we would end up with less than a million had we done nothing.

I’m not suggesting we should’ve done “nothing”, but as we look back on the data there were likely be other things that we should have done instead of what we did. Start with nursing homes and assisted living. Knowing what we know now, that should’ve been the first priority to ensure the most vulnerable were protected.

 

[Merge]

I’m not suggesting we should’ve done “nothing”, but as we look back on the data there were likely be other things that we should have done instead of what we did. Start with nursing homes and assisted living. Knowing what we know now, that should’ve been the first priority to ensure the most vulnerable were protected.

But having the perspective of hindsight wasn't an option then.
There are clearly things we would have done better. I don't take issue with that at all.

There is still so much we don't know though and I don't think we had an option to do what we did.

Yes, the biggest risk is to the elderly population, but how at risk are people with lung disease, hypertension, diabetes or obesity?
Unfortunately those populations represent a gigantic proportion of US citizens.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

I’m not suggesting we should’ve done “nothing”, but as we look back on the data there were likely be other things that we should have done instead of what we did. Start with nursing homes and assisted living. Knowing what we know now, that should’ve been the first priority to ensure the most vulnerable were protected.

Ok protect assisted living nursing home occupants and then what? The rest of the pop makes a money or wellness decision?

 

[NYShoreGuy]

But having the perspective of hindsight wasn't an option then.
There are clearly things we would have done better. I don't take issue with that at all.

There is still so much we don't know though and I don't think we had an option to do what we did.

Yes, the biggest risk is to the elderly population, but how at risk are people with lung disease, hypertension, diabetes or obesity?
Unfortunately those populations represent a gigantic proportion of US citizens.

Many on this board will say those are self inflicting wounds for bad diet and wellness plans and that they made their own beds

 

[shu09]

I had to laugh last night when I watched Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN. That had this lady who they said "Prophesied" the Coronavirus. Now she is saying worse case scenario is we will like this for 36 months. Is the purpose of that show to fear monger?

What are your guys thoughts on Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta?

They do what their corporate overlords tell them to. Pretty simple to see through what they're pushing.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

They do what their corporate overlords tell them to. Pretty simple to see through what they're pushing.

So you believe the at&t board of directors is influencing their narrativea?

 

[shu09]

So you believe the at&t board of directors is influencing their narrativea?

Zucker

 

[HALL85]

But having the perspective of hindsight wasn't an option then.
There are clearly things we would have done better. I don't take issue with that at all.

There is still so much we don't know though and I don't think we had an option to do what we did.

Yes, the biggest risk is to the elderly population, but how at risk are people with lung disease, hypertension, diabetes or obesity?
Unfortunately those populations represent a gigantic proportion of US citizens.

My point was that going forward the statistics should help us in how we react.

The nursing home piece is pretty obvious. We should also now take steps to focus on those other groups who are at risk that you pointed out. Let’s start with education. If you are in a high-risk group, we should be providing guidance to avoid contact as much as possible. Part of that guidance should be how to get out of that high-risk group (Diet, weight loss, smoking or vaping cessation, etc.).

We can’t legislate an unhealthy persons activities. We should provide as much education and let them make the most informed choices.

 

[shu09]

Wow that is one selfish self serving take

Some of us want the world to get back to normal and end this hysteria over something that isn't that deadly at all.

 

[Pirata]

Wow that is one selfish self serving take

Apparently the Speaker of the House does not agree with you.

http://www.repturzai.com/Display/SiteFiles/333/OtherDocuments/2020/LettertoMembersHealthDataMay6.pdf

 

[Merge]

My point was that going forward the statistics should help us in how we react.

The nursing home piece is pretty obvious. We should also now take steps to focus on those other groups who are at risk that you pointed out. Let’s start with education. If you are in a high-risk group, we should be providing guidance to avoid contact as much as possible. Part of that guidance should be how to get out of that high-risk group (Diet, weight loss, smoking or vaping cessation, etc.).

I agree, but short term. No one is going to fix the medical issues within the next month as we start to open up.

We are talking about more than 100 million people with those issues. Should they all stay home until there is a vaccine?
Can they commute to work? What percentage of them will die if they get infected?

 

[Pirata]

It bodes well for the season if you are flirting with 80 in early May. I never get close to breaking 80, unless it rains after the 14th hole.

My wife shoots in the 80s.

If it gets any hotter than that, she does play.

Ba-dum-tsss.

 

[HALL85]

Many on this board will say those are self inflicting wounds for bad diet and wellness plans and that they made their own beds

Many on this board don’t believe in personal responsibility

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Many on this board don’t believe in personal responsibility

But shouldnt personal responsibility also take into account your ability to protect coworkers and strangers alike?

 

[Merge]

Many on this board don’t believe in personal responsibility

I do.

I feel Covid would probably not hurt me, but I have the personal responsibility to stay home and help keep the spread of the infection low so I don't kill any unhealthy people unintentionally.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Some of us want the world to get back to normal and end this hysteria over something that isn't that deadly at all.

Now you are gonna give me the stance that many want the easy way out and live off the government's tip for the next 24 plus weeks...
I believe many want to be working live on site with assurances that they dont pose a risk to others and that others dont pose risks to them

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Zucker

The eric bischoff of the mid to late 2010s

 

[HALL85]

I agree, but short term. No one is going to fix the medical issues within the next month as we start to open up.

We are talking about more than 100 million people with those issues. Should they all stay home until there is a vaccine?
Can they commute to work? What percentage of them will die if they get infected?

What about the 230 million that are not at risk?

 

[shufan1993]

I had to laugh last night when I watched Anderson Cooper and Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN. That had this lady who they said "Prophesied" the Coronavirus. Now she is saying worse case scenario is we

They do what their corporate overlords tell them to. Pretty simple to see through what they're pushing.

Also- Why didn't I get a "Boom" after @Save Continental tried to attempt to say I was lying about my life. At least I set the record straight. Haven't heard from @Save Continental since.

 

[NYShoreGuy]

Apparently the Speaker of the House does not agree with you.

http://www.repturzai.com/Display/SiteFiles/333/OtherDocuments/2020/LettertoMembersHealthDataMay6.pdf

I dont care, my care is that any one life lost on this was one life too many...let us round up everyone 65 and older and give lethal ejections because well they were bound to die anyways or they will get to the point where they are dealing with multiple underlying conditions which will make them more vulnerable in general.

 

[Pirata]

I don't really understand what data people are looking at to think we would end up with less than a million had we done nothing.

I think the point is made here:

I’m not suggesting we should’ve done “nothing”, but as we look back on the data there were likely be other things that we should have done instead of what we did. Start with nursing homes and assisted living. Knowing what we know now, that should’ve been the first priority to ensure the most vulnerable were protected.

I too have never suggested doing nothing. I live in PA now and have been basing my disdain at the response based on our situation. I realize NY Metro is another story.

In the Speaker's letter I posted, note the one statistic: 539 people on ventilators. That's out of 12,800,000.

Then there is this:

Ok protect assisted living nursing home occupants and then what? The rest of the pop makes a money or wellness decision?

The truth is, we make those decisions everyday. However, the OP that was quoted did not state just worrying about nursing homes. He said, "start with". He did not say "only protect the nursing homes".

 

[shu09]

But shouldnt personal responsibility also take into account your ability to protect coworkers and strangers alike?

Protect them from what?

 

[Pirata]

Yes, the biggest risk is to the elderly population, but how at risk are
Unfortunately those populations represent a gigantic proportion of US citizens.

Agreed.

Those (people with lung disease, hypertension, diabetes or obesity, etc) are the ones that should have stayed home and let the rest of the world go on with their lives.

 

[shu09]

Also- Why didn't I get a "Boom" after @Save Continental tried to attempt to say I was lying about my life. At least I set the record straight. Haven't heard from @Save Continental since.

Boom