Next few months are going to be interesting. Unemployment creepng back up and trends are going in the wrong direction. The one segment I'm familiar with (healthcare) is bracing for a bad second half...if layoff's happen in the next couple of months, Romney should ride that wave like a surfer.
Presidential Election
- Thread starter SnakeTom
- Start date
Assume Obama wins each state he won last time by more than 10%, since that would be a HUGE swing that Romney is not likely to get. Lets look at the unemployment numbers by the rest of the states he won last time.
That leaves:
Colorado - 7.8%
Iowa - 5.2%
Indiana - 7.9%
Ohio - 7.5%
Florida - 8.7%
North Carolina - 9.4%
Virginia - 5.6%
New Hampshire - 5%
Minnesota - 5.6%
If employment is the issue... Give Romney ALL of the states in that list over 6% unemployment. Obama still wins the election.
I expect Ohio to go to Obama especially because of the auto bailout which will give him some wiggle room with a state like Wisconsin.
Romney could win Ohio if he names Rob Portman as his VP. He is VERY popular in Ohio AND he is qualified to be president if. Now I'm not a Rob Portman fan as he is another big government conservative but in the political realm, he would be a good pick.
Virginia and Iowa are in play too.
Obama is still the favorite but this could be very close and there is a long way to go.
Virginia and Iowa are in play too.
Obama is still the favorite but this could be very close and there is a long way to go.
I don't think it is over, I was just pointing out that Romney has a mountain to climb to get there and employment may not be the ultimate deciding factor since the states in play are mostly less than the national average, and in some cases have improved dramatically in regards to employment
Portman would probably be the best pick that I have seen for Romney. Jindal has been getting a lot of buzz recently, though I don't see what state turns red because of him.
Portman would probably be the best pick that I have seen for Romney. Jindal has been getting a lot of buzz recently, though I don't see what state turns red because of him.
That may be a mistake though. If we hit two positive jobs reports in September and October, it will backfire and my point was that the unemployment message may not do that well when it comes to states where employment is continuing to decline even though the national picture isn't as good.
I still believe my last assessment about Romney needing to support the affordable care act is the best way for him to build support especially with the e-mails that recently came out where Romney says we need a mandate.
Merge, just don't understand your logic. If there are several months of of upward trending unemployment, one or two months isn't going to make a difference...damage will be done. Famous line: "It's the Economy Stupid"...no one will give a rats ass about healthcare reform if the economy stagnates...that's the message.
And I have news for you...the average American has no idea what the "Mandate" is...go ask 10 people on the street and see what they tell you. If I am Romney, I steer clear of healthcare and if anyone asks, ask the question "Are you paying less for healthcare and is the quality of care better today than it was four years ago?"
And I have news for you...the average American has no idea what the "Mandate" is...go ask 10 people on the street and see what they tell you. If I am Romney, I steer clear of healthcare and if anyone asks, ask the question "Are you paying less for healthcare and is the quality of care better today than it was four years ago?"
"What have you done for me lately" is my logic.
If you draw a trend line since inauguration day, employment is getting better, albeit slow... but combine that with current a solid jobs report in September and October and Romney's argument would be over.
and I have news for you... the population of voters who have not made up their mind yet do know what the mandate is and they are independent voters who want to pick someone in the middle willing to work with both sides.
If Romney takes credit for his plan, and for the model that Obama used for healthcare reform he deflates Obama's biggest accomplishment while showing the public that he can work with both parties.
If you draw a trend line since inauguration day, employment is getting better, albeit slow... but combine that with current a solid jobs report in September and October and Romney's argument would be over.
and I have news for you... the population of voters who have not made up their mind yet do know what the mandate is and they are independent voters who want to pick someone in the middle willing to work with both sides.
If Romney takes credit for his plan, and for the model that Obama used for healthcare reform he deflates Obama's biggest accomplishment while showing the public that he can work with both parties.
Keep living that fantasy hoping for that solid jobs report in September and October...everything points to the contrary. I don't think Obama would be wise to do four year trending lines on unemployment....if he does that he can also put that target on his back that says "Hit Me".
Why would Romney supporting an Romney/Obamacare that the majority of people dislike in this country, especially before it's constitutionality is determined?
The better way would be to repudiate Romney/Obama care as a states rights/lab of democracy issue that didn't/doesn't work.
The better way would be to repudiate Romney/Obama care as a states rights/lab of democracy issue that didn't/doesn't work.
Granted it would have to wait until after the court makes their decision. I still believe it will be upheld. The state rights issue falls flat on its face if the court allows the mandate.
Assuming it is upheld, Obama is going to make that the focal point of his campaign. He is going to sell it, and people are going to buy in when they realize that their current plan really hasn't changed. Then they are going to see the stories of the families the law has helped.
Obama will really want to keep it in the spotlight because he forces Romney to talk about what his plan did in Massachusetts.
Romney will want to distance himself from it as being something that worked for Massachusetts but isn't right for our country, or he will say it was a bad idea basically saying he makes poor decisions.
Either of those scenarios is MUCH worse than taking credit for it.
It is going to hurt when Obama says "It is a shame how partisan you have become when you can't even support your own plan. You know it worked for Massachusetts and you know it would work for America....etc..."
If the court overturns it, the conversation will sway heavily in Romney's favor.
First look from Nate Silver
60% chance of Obama winning.
Expected to take all of the states he took last time except for Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
60% chance of Obama winning.
Expected to take all of the states he took last time except for Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
As I was saying.... A couple positive jobs reports will hurt Romney's argument.
Today's numbers certainly were not earth shattering, but they are enough to be moving us in the right direction.
This guy better show up soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6DrH6P9OC0&feature=related
Funny thing is, it's now July and its interesting how little interest or passion there is around this years elections depending on the venue I've been at over the past couple of months whether it be work related meetings or family or personal functions. Those that voted for Obama, don't seem to be happy about his performance...haven't talked to one person yet that voted for him that thinks he has done what was expected. On the other side, doesn't seem to be a lot of excitement about Romney either.
I do think voter turn-out is going to be very low this time around and as much as we may think healthcare reform will be a major topic, I think both candidates will focus on the economy.
I do think voter turn-out is going to be very low this time around and as much as we may think healthcare reform will be a major topic, I think both candidates will focus on the economy.
Touche... I spoke too soon. Appears to be a lag between the bureau of labor statistics and the ADP report.
fwiw, ADP is reporting the total Employees on nonfarm private payrolls to be at the highest level since Obama's inauguration. Still not satisfied with where we are, but it is clear to me we are moving in the right direction.
At this point four months before the election, I have no idea who will win and it's pure nonsense to predict a winner with so much time, so save your money right now.
I was just pointing to two observations: 1) Much less interest in this election than last and 2) Not much passion for either candidate. I wasn't making any dopey predictions.
The economy is still recovering from the 2008 "shock to the system," so to speak. I'm amazed people expected this to turn around in 2-3 years when it took nearly 10 years to get into this mess. It will take at least as long to fully recover no matter who occupies the White House.
Hilarious! People are killing the Governor of this state for little ACTUAL progress, and his supporters, who perceive progress. It's a wonderful double-standard.
